Possible GWR stock cascades to remove Castle HSTs?

[fgwrich]

46 x 455
19 x 313
Total 65 to be scrapped.

Replaced by
29 x 387/1 ex GN
9 x 387/2 ex GN & GWR sublease
2 x 377/1 ex SE
23 x 377/5 ex SE
6 x 387 ex C2C
Total 69 although C2C and GWR may not be available immediately and some 387 could be retained by GN if a pure 379 fleet proves insufficient.

GN to receive 30 x 379 ex GA
SE to replace 377s with return of Networkers from storage.

This I would assume is speculation - unless you have a source

mods note, split from two different threads.

Indeed, given that 3 out of the 6 C2C 387s are now directly leased by GWR, and I’d have thought it quite likely that the remaining 3 would also head to the west too.

 

[43102EMR]

I've been told that that is what's going to happen (that's unconfirmed and not an official source).

In any case the proposed cascades speculated on don't assume any service cuts with consequently less stock required.


I thought perhaps they might be kept on standby for short term use with SWR. If the 701s aren't in service by August and the last 707s go SWR is well and truly stuffed, especially as passenger numbers are evidently increasing.

Considering the other three haven’t been seen in passenger service with c2c in a number of weeks, if this were to happen I can imagine it would be relatively soon…

 

[Bessie]

Are Castle HSTs under threat of scrap/storage due to DfT future funding? Read on Twitter that Bedwyn Class 800 services are being cut with likelihood this frees up some 5 car 800 sets

 

[northernbelle]

Indeed, given that 3 out of the 6 C2C 387s are now directly leased by GWR, and I’d have thought it quite likely that the remaining 3 would also head to the west too.

Given the reduction in outgoings being demanded by DfT, I'd be surprised to see any additional leases taken on.

I can actually see how reduced commuting demand and resolution of the IET cracking saga will lead to a lower demand on 387s rather than greater.

 

[JonathanH]

Given the reduction in outgoings being demanded by DfT, I'd be surprised to see any additional leases taken on.

I can actually see how reduced commuting demand and resolution of the IET cracking saga will lead to a lower demand on 387s rather than greater.

On the other hand, you could see how leasing a few extra 387s for Newbury services allows the 80x off Bedwyn services to eliminate HSTs in the west. Given the 80x have to be leased anyway, running 387s in the LTV area may be cheaper than running HSTs in the west.

(Relevant to this thread if the c2c 387s are being seen as part of the Southern 455 longer term replacement in the event of service restoration and why they could actually be more useful elsewhere.)

 

[Sebastian O]

On the other hand, you could see how leasing a few extra 387s for Newbury services allows the 80x off Bedwyn services to eliminate HSTs in the west. Given the 80x have to be leased anyway, running 387s in the LTV area may be cheaper than running HSTs in the west.

(Relevant to this thread if the c2c 387s are being seen as part of the Southern 455 longer term replacement in the event of service restoration and why they could actually be more useful elsewhere.)

Completely seperate issues and an amount of 802s were purchased and the siding at Bedwyn increased, for this matter. The wires stop at Newbury so leasing extra 387s for Newbury wouldn’t achieve this (Bedwyn being further down the line).

 

[43096]

Completely seperate issues and an amount of 802s were purchased and the siding at Bedwyn increased, for this matter. The wires stop at Newbury so leasing extra 387s for Newbury wouldn’t achieve this (Bedwyn being further down the line).

It does release 802s, as you do what was done last year in the cracking crisis and run a 165 Newbury-Bedwyn.

 

[GeekyJamez]

They've only been using the Castle set's about 3 years if that, wouldn't it be a waste of money removing them from service after fitting power doors and refurbishing the MK3's?

 

[Irascible]

They've only been using the Castle set's about 3 years if that, wouldn't it be a waste of money removing them from service after fitting power doors and refurbishing the MK3's?

If you can manage the same service with something cheaper to run, you are saving money *now*, when it matters. The past is the past ( simple sunk cost fallacy ). If it was a waste is a political issue, ie it's an opinion... so yes IMO it would be a waste, but in economic terms it doesn't matter.

What are the chances of a replacement being "the same service" though... maybe if they're nicely furnished 400bhp 158s it'll get close.

 

[dk1]

I personally think the the Castle class & Inter7City days will end earlier than expected. No particular evidence just a feeling.

 

[Anonymous10]

If you can manage the same service with something cheaper to run, you are saving money *now*, when it matters. The past is the past ( simple sunk cost fallacy ). If it was a waste is a political issue, ie it's an opinion... so yes IMO it would be a waste, but in economic terms it doesn't matter.

What are the chances of a replacement being "the same service" though... maybe if they're nicely furnished 400bhp 158s it'll get close.

im wondering weather they are planning on long term taking either the 175 or 158 fleet of tfw both are due off lease capable of 90-100mph and well suited to long distance or regional express work.

 

[Towers]

I personally think the the Castle class & Inter7City days will end earlier than expected. No particular evidence just a feeling.

I'm inclined (regretfully) to agree; I think short HSTs now have the look of a very pre-Covid idea looking for a purpose in a post-Covid world. That being said, there is of course the ongoing saga of the 769s to be sorted at GWR, if they were to end up not entering service they could be the unlikely short-term saviour of the Castles! (I'm not suggesting that I think that will actually happen!).

 

[Irascible]

Should be remembered that those HSTs are on a cross-country route ( not XC! ) - a downturn in commuter rail patronage means very little to the south-west other than the odd few who commute to London from Exeter ( you must be nuts to do that ).

 

[dk1]

Should be remembered that those HSTs are on a cross-country route ( not XC! ) - a downturn in commuter rail patronage means very little to the south-west other than the odd few who commute to London from Exeter ( you must be nuts to do that ).

I think it’s more to do with redeploying other stock (possibly from London commuter extras) that will replace & make some legacy fleets redundant.