Absolutely right. If you run rail franchises you have no idea what the outcome will be the next time round, and in some cases the DfT may reorganise things and further reduce your chance of continuing to run anything. So you have to keep on bidding as existing franchises come up for re-letting.
Also, some companies have experience of different types of operation, e.g. long-distance or commuter, and some have experience of both. You would need to look ahead at the franchises due for renewal in the next few years and identify which ones your experience applies to.
If franchising continues, it's very likely that some other group or groups will come to the fore over the next ten years, and the pattern we see now will change.
As to who wins Greater Anglia, none of us can possibly say who will put in the best bid, which nowadays is not simply the one offering the highest premium, but we might say which group has the reputation for running the most efficient services, and hope that that's the bidder who wins.
I think the GEML is a poisoned chalice, knackered OHLE, aging rolling stock... I had no issues with First, they were the last to really invest in the franchise, but I think DfT messed Abellio around with such a short franchise there was no incentive to invest in it. Abellio must have been doing something right to win ScotRail, so I wouldn't say Greater Anglia has been a total disaster. Whoever wins the franchise should have the opportunity for the franchise to be long enough so they do give a damn and try invest in it... well at least clean the trains and look after them :roll: TfL have done well to try smarten up the 315's, surprised that there's not so many 317's about as well :cry: