Rail Crowding DfT report 22nd September

[Snow1964]

The DfT has issued a report on rail crowding

Data on rail passenger numbers, crowding and capacity, produced by Department for Transport.

1. Passenger numbers by city and central London station
2. Crowding (PiXC) by city and for London and South East operators
3. Capacity, train loading, passengers standing and crowding (PiXC) by city and central London station
4. Crowding (PiXC) for train operators, by city and central London station

lots of tables, haven’t looked at them yet
and an infographic

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1105652/infographic-rail-passengers-crowding-2021.pdf

Main points​

In autumn 2021 there were on average 1,079,976 daily passenger arrivals into major cities. This represents an increase of 138% compared to the same period in the previous year, but a decrease of 41% compared to the same period in autumn 2019. 36% of these daily arrivals were in the morning peak (07:00 to 09:59).

Passengers travelled at slightly different times of the day compared to years prior to COVID-19. In London, 44% of daily arrivals were in the morning peak (an increase from the 39% recorded in 2020, but lower than 55% in 2019) reflecting a flattening of peak-demand due to a decrease in commuting trips. For regional major cities, the pre-COVID-19 2-peak distribution was replaced by a more flattened spread of rail travel across the day. In 2021, 25% of arrivals occurred in the 3-hour morning peak, the same proportion as the same period the previous year.

London had the highest rail passenger numbers arriving into a city across the day (632,740); over 8 times that of Birmingham (second highest at 73,874).

On average in selected major cities during autumn 2021, there was a 151% increase of passenger arrivals during the AM peak (07:00 to 09:59) compared to 2020, although it was a 53% reduction compared to 2019.

Estimates suggest seating capacity in autumn 2021 was lower than in the equivalent period in 2019 and 2020, by 9% and 1% respectively.

Rail passenger numbers and crowding on weekdays in major cities in England and Wales: 2021 (revised)

Rail passenger numbers and crowding statistics in several major cities in England and Wales during 2021.

www.gov.uk

Rail passenger numbers and crowding on weekdays in major cities in England and Wales: 2021 (revised)

www.gov.uk

Rail passenger numbers and crowding on weekdays (RAI02)

Data on rail passenger numbers, crowding and capacity, produced by the Department for Transport.

www.gov.uk

 

[Snow1964]

A new rail factsheet has been published 2nd February 2023

Appears to be lots of data for year to March 2022, so 10 months old already

• 990 million passenger rail journeys were made, an increase of 155.2% on the previous year and a decrease of 43.1% on the year ending March 2020 (Office of Rail and Road (ORR) Passenger Rail Usage table 1220)
• Government support to the railways totalled £20.3 billion, a decrease of 11.2% on the previous year and an increase of 74.9% on the year ending March 2020 (ORRRail Industry Finance table 7270)
• 73.1% of trains arrived within 59 seconds of their scheduled arrival time, a decrease of 6.7 percentage points (pp) on the previous year and an increase of 8.2pp on the year ending March 2020 (ORR Passenger Rail Performance table 3133)
• 16.87 billion net tonne kilometres (10.48 billion net tonne miles) of rail freightwere transported, an increase of 11.3% on the previous year and an increase of 1.8% on the year ending March 2020 (ORR Freight Rail Usage and Performance table 1310)
• 282,537 complaints were closed, an increase of 112.4% on the previous year and a decrease of 47.2% on the year ending March 2020 (ORR Passenger Rail Service Complaints table 4100)
• 1,875 kilotonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent were emitted by passenger services on the railways, an increase of 1.6% on the previous year and a decrease of 21.9%on the year ending March 2020 (ORR Rail Emissions table 6105)

Rail factsheet: 2022

www.gov.uk

 

[Towers]

Sounds like it's intended to shore up the "nobody's using trains" agenda; fewer passengers and more subsidy. Same old.

 

[Krokodil]

Why does it only cover travel into major cities? Some of the worst overcrowding I know of is on tourist routes.

 

[Broken70]

Why does it only cover travel into major cities? Some of the worst overcrowding I know of is on tourist routes.

It's no suprise really that the DfT will only focus on major cities and at a push larger towns particularly in the south. The DfT arnt interested in the tourist routes.

 

[30907]

It's no suprise really that the DfT will only focus on major cities and at a push larger towns particularly in the south. The DfT arnt interested in the tourist routes.

Or more simply: because commuting into cities is where the passenger numbers and significant year- round overcrowding historically were, and where measures could be (even have been) taken to resolve them.

 

[Sleepy]

Sounds like it's intended to shore up the "nobody's using trains" agenda; fewer passengers and more subsidy. Same old.



I would suggest someone from Dft pops over to Liverpool St. in AM peak to see these "empty" services arriving !

 

[The Ham]

Sounds like it's intended to shore up the "nobody's using trains" agenda; fewer passengers and more subsidy. Same old.

The data is starting what was the case 22 to 10 months ago. That includes a lot of do not travel, work from home, social distancing, etc.

Obviously a lot has changed with passenger numbers being much closer to 100% for much of December then the 56.9% indicates in the report.

Yes there will be those who will use it to spin what they want. However the data is old enough that is easy enough to push back against.

 

[trainophile]

Why does it only cover travel into major cities? Some of the worst overcrowding I know of is on tourist routes.

I guessed you were from Wales as soon as I read this ^. Good old TfW and their "we are using all available carriages and apologise for the overcrowding". A daily occurrence.

 

[Bertie the bus]

Why does it only cover travel into major cities? Some of the worst overcrowding I know of is on tourist routes.

It is probably best to distract the government with the shiny thing (city centre travel) as long as possible. In the current climate I don’t think the railway wants the Treasury to look at seasonal lines and say ‘It costs how much to run an all year service on a line mainly used by teenagers on weekends when the sun comes out!?’

 

[Krokodil]

I guessed you were from Wales as soon as I read this ^. Good old TfW and their "we are using all available carriages and apologise for the overcrowding". A daily occurrence.

Yep, while a two-car unit leaves about 40 people behind on the platform.

Not just tourist flows, mind. A rural branch line was full and standing today. An ordinary Thursday in February, no events on or anything.

 

[Towers]

Yep, while a two-car unit leaves about 40 people behind on the platform.

Not just tourist flows, mind. A rural branch line was full and standing today. An ordinary Thursday in February, no events on or anything.

At least all those nasty evil Pacers have gone though. Imagine how terrible it would be if people had to endure sitting down, on a seat, on one of those instead of waiting on a cold platform for the next train!

 

[30907]

Yep, while a two-car unit leaves about 40 people behind on the platform.

Not just tourist flows, mind. A rural branch line was full and standing today. An ordinary Thursday in February, no events on or anything.

Which one, out of interest, and what class of unit?

 

[yorksrob]

Yep, while a two-car unit leaves about 40 people behind on the platform.

Not just tourist flows, mind. A rural branch line was full and standing today. An ordinary Thursday in February, no events on or anything.

Which line out of interest ? i experience this regularly on the Whitby line, yet get met with howls of disbelief from some on here when I mention it.

 

[Krokodil]

Which one, out of interest, and what class of unit?

Which line out of interest ? i experience this regularly on the Whitby line, yet get met with howls of disbelief from some on here when I mention it.

Class 153 on the Conwy Valley Line. Alright it's an extreme example as it only had one coach, but still - it was a miserable Thursday afternoon in February, well away from the school holidays or any part of the tourist season, it was virtually all local traffic - all the more admirable when you consider just how often that the line closes, it is pretty unreliable. In summer the numbers will easily fill a 150 with people standing.

I know what you mean about Whitby, Northern use four car sets for good reason on some trains. Likewise I've encountered packed four car 156s on the West Highland Line in term time, even though there were two steam trains to take the bulk of the tourists.

If you want tube-style overcrowding though, try travelling between Rhyl and Chester during the summer holidays on a Monday or Friday. Scores of people complaining that they haven't physically been able to board a train in three hours. Come to that, try Chester to Manchester last Saturday, things were getting absolutely silly.

I had my first ride on one of TfW's ex-GC Mk4 sets yesterday (3/2/23). Both Standard and First were well patronised for most of the way on the Holyhead-Cardiff run, despite the opportunities to make through journeys being very limited because of the ASLEF strike affecting other operators. That fifth coach can't come quick enough.

 

[The Ham]

Class 153 on the Conwy Valley Line. Alright it's an extreme example as it only had one coach, but still - it was a miserable Thursday afternoon in February, well away from the school holidays or any part of the tourist season, it was virtually all local traffic - all the more admirable when you consider just how often that the line closes, it is pretty unreliable. In summer the numbers will easily fill a 150 with people standing.

I know what you mean about Whitby, Northern use four car sets for good reason on some trains. Likewise I've encountered packed four car 156s on the West Highland Line in term time, even though there were two steam trains to take the bulk of the tourists.

If you want tube-style overcrowding though, try travelling between Rhyl and Chester during the summer holidays on a Monday or Friday. Scores of people complaining that they haven't physically been able to board a train in three hours. Come to that, try Chester to Manchester last Saturday, things were getting absolutely silly.

I had my first ride on one of TfW's ex-GC Mk4 sets yesterday (3/2/23). Both Standard and First were well patronised for most of the way on the Holyhead-Cardiff run, despite the opportunities to make through journeys being very limited because of the ASLEF strike affecting other operators. That fifth coach can't come quick enough.

Even if it were a 2 coaches those 40 people would have filled over half the seats and I suspect all the rest would have been filled with people standing, quite possibly with some still needing to stand.

Whilst the cost of running a longer train would be more, it certainly wouldn't double the cost (staff costs would remain unchanged and they are typically 1/3 of a TOC's costs, however they would be a lot more in percentage terms than that 1/3 on a 1 coach train and still higher than that 1/3 for a two coach train).

If leaving passengers behind us fairly common, that would indicate that there's likely to be further demand than is showing up at the station, so there's a good chance more capacity would fill up quite quickly.

 

[WatcherZero]

If you want newer data July-Sep 2022 was published mid December
Headline is 359m journeys in Q2 80.3% of pre-pandemic level
South and long distance are about 65% of pre-pandemic level, all of the rest vary between 70% and 77%, the outliers are London Overground on 82.9%, Merseyrail on 86.7%, EMR 99.9% and LNER 105.7%.

By ticket:
Advance 113.4%
Anytime/peak 95.8%
Off peak 106.4%
Other 71.3%
Season 33.7%
The proportion of season tickets to other tickets sold is less than half what it was 3 years ago (13.1% today, 33.1% three years ago and rather than recovering the proportion of season tickets is falling by about 1.5% each year).

Recovery in pre-pandemic passenger km / Change in average distance travelled by a passenger since pre-pandemic
London and South East 74.5% / -9.5%
Long Distance 78.9% / -3.9%
Regional 76.7% / +4.6%

By company theres a pretty even spread from +6.6% to -5.7% average passenger distance, the outliers are:
TfW +14.8%
GWR +14.2%
Northern +12.7%
LNER -8.2%
C2C -8.5%

https://dataportal.orr.gov.uk/media/2167/passenger-rail-usage-jul-sep-2022.pdf

My conclusions: The worst hit by far is long distance season ticket holders who only make up a 1/3rd of what they did three years ago (e.g. long commutes by West Coast and GWR, there has traditionally been a very low proportion of commuters on the East Coast and thats reflected in the figures). Also suffering slightly above average hits are the poor service performers e.g. Northern and TPE. There has been a boom in Welsh demand thats even comparatively benefitted GWR above the other long distance/southern operators, there doesnt seem to have been as great a boom in Scottish or English holiday demand but theres a notable increase in leisure/retail trippers to greater than pre-pandemic level judging by the off peak and advance ticket sales. Metro travel within all cities has recovered very strongly while people in the regions are willing to travel further on average.

 

[Parjon]

What do you define as "metro travel"? What leads you to believe this has recovered strongly across all cities?

I can only see direct evidence of that for one, and indirectly for London. There appears to be evidence to the contrary for at least some of the others.

There is now a massive overprovision of seats in Newcastle and Manchester for example.

 

[30907]

Class 153 on the Conwy Valley Line. Alright it's an extreme example as it only had one coach, but still - it was a miserable Thursday afternoon in February, well away from the school holidays or any part of the tourist season, it was virtually all local traffic - all the more admirable when you consider just how often that the line closes, it is pretty unreliable. In summer the numbers will easily fill a 150 with people standing.

My guess was right - no doubt helped by free travel for Welsh seniors.

If you want tube-style overcrowding though, try travelling between Rhyl and Chester during the summer holidays on a Monday or Friday. Scores of people complaining that they haven't physically been able to board a train in three hours. Come to that, try Chester to Manchester last Saturday, things were getting absolutely silly.

Yes, North Wales needs its planned enhanced service!

 

[Krokodil]

Even if it were a 2 coaches those 40 people would have filled over half the seats and I suspect all the rest would have been filled with people standing, quite possibly with some still needing to stand.

The 40 people left behind relates to the North Wales Coast (and onwards to Manchester) mainly served by 2/3 car units, rather than the single 153 on the Conwy Valley.

Whilst the cost of running a longer train would be more, it certainly wouldn't double the cost (staff costs would remain unchanged and they are typically 1/3 of a TOC's costs, however they would be a lot more in percentage terms than that 1/3 on a 1 coach train and still higher than that 1/3 for a two coach train).

I certainly agree that the staffing costs of a four car train are precisely the same as a single 153. As for the costs of the train itself, a four car class 331 costs quite a bit less than a three car class 195 to lease and operate which is a major argument for investment in electrification - it probably boosts ridership too.

If leaving passengers behind us fairly common, that would indicate that there's likely to be further demand than is showing up at the station, so there's a good chance more capacity would fill up quite quickly.

After leaving scores of people behind at one station, I phoned ahead to the next to warn them about the conditions and suggest that they make use of the standby buses hired for crowdbusting, I was told that they'd already been filled and despatched. Some passengers call taxis as soon as they see "full and standing" on the departure boards, and claim the cost back. Then there are the many who manage one journey in sardine conditions and say "never again".

 

[Horizon22]

It's no suprise really that the DfT will only focus on major cities and at a push larger towns particularly in the south. The DfT arnt interested in the tourist routes.

It's also comparative data to other years when you'd regularly see siliness like specific trains at 200% of capacity. Another point is that the major cities have traditionally been the key funding source for railway revenue, particularly peak commuter travel, especially in/out of London. Much of that has gone, hence the DfT's interest.

Now the Passengers in Excess of Capacity (PiXC) is barely 1 or 2% with even passengers standing maxing out at 34% - and that's on TfL Rail (Elizabeth line) which is stock specifically designed with lots of standing capacity. 2022 no doubt would be a bit more as there were still restrictions in 2021.

I think regional routes regularly seeing 2,3,4 car units with a limited frequency and a high leisure focus are definitely doing much better and have capacity issues. But then if you combined all the fares cost on such a train, they are probably paying less and in the DfT's eyes isn't as "worthwhile" when they are looking at the overall figures.

What do you define as "metro travel"? What leads you to believe this has recovered strongly across all cities?

I can only see direct evidence of that for one, and indirectly for London. There appears to be evidence to the contrary for at least some of the others.

There is now a massive overprovision of seats in Newcastle and Manchester for example.

Indeed - simple data analysis on RAI0212: Peak rail capacity, standard class critical loads and crowding on a typical autumn weekday by city has - outside of London - Birmingham being the worst effected in a one hour peak, and thats 68% of seating capacity between 0800-0859. Of course specific services might be over that and approaching 100%, but that would have to be compensated by another arrival with more than half of the seats free in AM peak.

 

[Snow1964]

I think regional routes regularly seeing 2,3,4 car units with a limited frequency and a high leisure focus are definitely doing much better and have capacity issues. But then if you combined all the fares cost on such a train, they are probably paying less and in the DfT's eyes isn't as "worthwhile" when they are looking at the overall figures.

It is actually much harder to appraise if a train working a leisure service that is busy something like 5-10 times a day, 6 or 7 days a week, is better fares value than a London commuter train which is only busy for one morning and one evening for say 200 days a year.

Get into debating if the commuter train needs to be 4, 6, 8, (or what multiple) of the leisure trains fare, because seeing 400-500 journeys a year instead of 1500-3500 journeys on the leisure service used multiple times a day.

How DfT convert this to what is worthwhile, somebody else will need to answer, as it is beyond me.

 

[daikilo]

It is actually much harder to appraise if a train working a leisure service that is busy something like 5-10 times a day, 6 or 7 days a week, is better fares value than a London commuter train which is only busy for one morning and one evening for say 200 days a year.

Get into debating if the commuter train needs to be 4, 6, 8, (or what multiple) of the leisure trains fare, because seeing 400-500 journeys a year instead of 1500-3500 journeys on the leisure service used multiple times a day.

How DfT convert this to what is worthwhile, somebody else will need to answer, as it is beyond me.

Try leisure = pleasure whereas commuters = work.

 

[WatcherZero]

What do you define as "metro travel"? What leads you to believe this has recovered strongly across all cities?

I can only see direct evidence of that for one, and indirectly for London. There appears to be evidence to the contrary for at least some of the others.

There is now a massive overprovision of seats in Newcastle and Manchester for example.

Because I know for example Metrolink carried 90% of pre-pandemic in the last quarter which is 20% ahead of the rail network average and in line with the Merseyrail and London Overground figures, meanwhile the TfW network also saw strong recovery centered on Cardiff.

 

[Parjon]

Because I know for example Metrolink carried 90% of pre-pandemic in the last quarter which is 20% ahead of the rail network average and in line with the Merseyrail and London Overground figures, meanwhile the TfW network also saw strong recovery centered on Cardiff.

Anecdotal add ons don't really help, and bus or tram facts aren't relevant to the situation on rail. Factually, Manchester arrivals are down massively and in a way that doesn't suggest prospect of recovery. This is despite even a huge increase in seats versus 2018.

Cardiff at least appears to have cut its cloth during the pandemic but is at less than 50%!

Those are also only two places, but you asserted that recovery was strong across all major cities. It seems very weak in even the places you specified.

 

[The Ham]

Anecdotal add ons don't really help, and bus or tram facts aren't relevant to the situation on rail. Factually, Manchester arrivals are down massively and in a way that doesn't suggest prospect of recovery. This is despite even a huge increase in seats versus 2018.

Cardiff at least appears to have cut its cloth during the pandemic but is at less than 50%!

Those are also only two places, but you asserted that recovery was strong across all major cities. It seems very weak in even the places you specified.

What's your source for Cardiff being less than 50% of the the pre Covid levels of use?

The ORR station data has Cardiff Central as 3.04 million in 2018/19 and 1.79 for 2021/22 (note this is the year ending March). This would be 58.8% of the maximum previous highest use (the year ending 2019/20 was a tiny bit lower at 3.01 million).

Now if we look at the quarterly data by TOC for the year ending March 2022 the fourth quarter useage for TfW was 57.7% of pre pandemic levels (which given this was much higher than the first quarter would intimate that Cardiff Central was ahead of the TfW average), however by Q2 of 2022/23 TfW had reached 72.3% of the pre pandemic levels.

As such it would be interesting to see any data which shows that Cardiff Central had seen usage fall between the whole of 2021/22 to see a level lower than 50% whilst the whole of TfW has reached nearly 75%.

 

[AlastairFraser]

Anecdotal add ons don't really help, and bus or tram facts aren't relevant to the situation on rail. Factually, Manchester arrivals are down massively and in a way that doesn't suggest prospect of recovery. This is despite even a huge increase in seats versus 2018.

Cardiff at least appears to have cut its cloth during the pandemic but is at less than 50%!

Those are also only two places, but you asserted that recovery was strong across all major cities. It seems very weak in even the places you specified.

You could argue the weekday dip in Manchester arrivals is partly due to WFH and Northern/TPE/Avanti's unreliability.
Trains are packed out with (mostly) less time sensitive leisure passengers on the weekends in GM and the surrounds, but commuters rely on a consistently reliable service.
Esp. for the high value commuters using the TPE Huddersfield stoppers into Manchester with little alternative.

 

[Snow1964]

Try leisure = pleasure whereas commuters = work.

Bad simplification

Leisure travel supports all the cafes, gift shops, jobs in museums, theatres etc. Cut out leisure travel and lots of businesses close and jobs are lost.

So if don't worry about crowding on leisure services, then put jobs at risk. I have forgotten the figure but vaguely remember during furlough it was said something like 4 or 5 million jobs were in leisure industries.

Only a rookie analyst would think overcrowding on commuter trains is important, but overcrowding on leisure trains isn't.

 

[yorksrob]

Class 153 on the Conwy Valley Line. Alright it's an extreme example as it only had one coach, but still - it was a miserable Thursday afternoon in February, well away from the school holidays or any part of the tourist season, it was virtually all local traffic - all the more admirable when you consider just how often that the line closes, it is pretty unreliable. In summer the numbers will easily fill a 150 with people standing.

I know what you mean about Whitby, Northern use four car sets for good reason on some trains. Likewise I've encountered packed four car 156s on the West Highland Line in term time, even though there were two steam trains to take the bulk of the tourists.

If you want tube-style overcrowding though, try travelling between Rhyl and Chester during the summer holidays on a Monday or Friday. Scores of people complaining that they haven't physically been able to board a train in three hours. Come to that, try Chester to Manchester last Saturday, things were getting absolutely silly.

I had my first ride on one of TfW's ex-GC Mk4 sets yesterday (3/2/23). Both Standard and First were well patronised for most of the way on the Holyhead-Cardiff run, despite the opportunities to make through journeys being very limited because of the ASLEF strike affecting other operators. That fifth coach can't come quick enough.

Ah yes, It's good to hear that the Conwy valley line is well used all year round.

 

[Adrian1980uk]

Totally this thread sums up the difficulties in trying to compare Pre and post pandemic, too many variables for direct comparison. Avanti and transpenine need to be discounted as a start as they're not running even similar timetables. Across the board TOCs aren't running Pre pandemic timetables and obviously overcrowding isn't as predictable as before as working patterns have changed and I still don't think future work patterns are settled.