Railways lurching out of control?

[eldomtom2]

There seems a disconnect between the threads where people argue that “passenger numbers are over 100% of the 2019 levels, so we should restore all services and boost frequencies” and the threads where people believe that everything is too fragile to consider putting proper franchises out there again

I believe that if TOCs had contracts today (like the pre-Covid contracts, even if that means a different subsidy level or different baseline frequencies) then we’d have an incentive to resolve the long running industrial relations problems, we’d not have the widespread 21:59 cancellations, we’d have more reason to increase staffing levels…

You talk about disconnect - where would the money for this franchised paradise come from?

 

[43066]

I also think they know they’re done in 2024 either way

That may be true, but I rather doubt Conservative central office sees it that way. They have a rapidly closing window to try and turn things around.

Can you tell us where it's running an acceptable service or hasn't got worse in the last three years?

The bits I use regularly and work on seem fine. Most of the South East still has a good service.

 

[jayah]

The above focuses on the pension side of things.

Benefits have hardly changed, and so with inflation doubling since 1997 it therefore means that we are paying out (in real terms) less. As such either the payments value to individuals have fallen or the numbers claiming have fallen or (most likely) a mixture of the two.

That's against a backdrop where the actual number aged 16-64 has I increased. Which further reduces the average cost to each person paying taxes (with other factors, such as rate of pay growth for individuals, making it hard to determine if the actual cost will have fallen for any one person - I for one am paying a lot more tax than I was is 1997 in my first job and so my actual contribution towards benefits will have gone up a lot; as my basic pay has gone up by over 500% - in part due to a fairly low starting salary).

Real terms spending on welfare was around 25% higher before the pandemic than in 1997. The population is ageing and pensioners are lavished with cash.

Labour ramped up entitlements in the early 2000s to reduce relative child poverty and since the pandemic many more people have gone on long term sickness / disability. The cost of housing and related benefits certainly hasn't helped either.

 

[Tetchytyke]

The cost of housing and related benefits certainly hasn't helped either

Housing benefit is a benefit paid to a private landlord to subsidise a private asset. Housing benefit costs are a direct consequence of Conservative policy to sell off social housing for peanuts and refuse to build any more. In 2013 the Mirror reported a third of ex-social housing in Wandsworth is now in the hands of private landlords.

Privatising profit and nationalising losses for the benefit of a chosen few. It's exactly the same in the railway industry.

 

[jayah]

Housing benefit is a benefit paid to a private landlord to subsidise a private asset. Housing benefit costs are a direct consequence of Conservative policy to sell off social housing for peanuts and refuse to build any more. In 2013 the Mirror reported a third of ex-social housing in Wandsworth is now in the hands of private landlords.

Privatising profit and nationalising losses for the benefit of a chosen few. It's exactly the same in the railway industry.

Social housing isn't a free lunch. It costs a fortune in upkeep, repairs and rent arrears.

 

[contrex]

Can you tell us where it's running an acceptable service

Well, my experience may be local, but in the last 4 weeks from Stapleton Road I have been to Bath Spa 4 times, Oxford twice, Stroud, Bradford on Avon, Weston-Super-Mare twice, Cardiff three times, Totnes today. All on time both ways, except the day the wires were down at Slough, and all that happened there was that trains I wanted at Bristol TM and Bath Spa were delayed by 30 mins, BUT the previous trains were also delayed by the same amount, and turned up instead.

 

[Bletchleyite]

Can you tell us where it's running an acceptable service or hasn't got worse in the last three years? I would also like to plan a trip a few months in advance without the expectation at some point after it's booked, I'll have to amend it.
It would be nice if I could book a train into London or on the WCML for a week Saturday. I cannot as yet buy an across London Ticket that can both operate a barrier on the Underground or be posted in four days with confidence.
The headline may be dramatic but its far more appropriate than ''The Railway is doing adequately''

LNR seems to be doing reasonably OK, albeit busy due to Avanti "refugees" and obviously no 230s for a bit.

 

[43066]

What I will say is there is too much demand for the NHS. There now appears to be not enough demand for the railways. Go figure.

“Not enough” demand is a value judgement, though. There is a little less demand for rail travel, but we are close to 2019 passenger figures (and rising). The long distance/intercity side of things is already above that. Certainly as a driver my TOC regularly begs me to go in and do overtime, so there is clearly demand for my services and I would therefore expect a sensible payrise to reflect this, having not had one for three years.

Now the worry could be that the NHS is in a mess because it is run by government. The railways are getting run more and more by government.

We are in full agreement here!

I saw a lot of platform staff together at Victoria with nothing to do due to engineering works. Needs to be other useful things they can do or at least "look busy" (I hate that directive).

I know what you mean. What I find a little irritating is seeing staff staring into their phones. This tends to be Ontrak contractors rather than gateline staff, but the question then is “why are you here”?

That said engineering works do mean staff rostered to work will basically have nothing to do, on occasion.

 

[Bald Rick]

There is a little less demand for rail travel, but we are close to 2019 passenger figures (and rising).

I do need to correct you here - passenger numbers are not rising. They have broadly been the same for 6 months now, compared to Pre covid on a like for like, week to week, comparison.

The long distance/intercity side of things is already above that.

It isn’t. Long distance is actually the worst performing of the three sectors.

 

[Peregrine 4903]

I do need to correct you here - passenger numbers are not rising. They have broadly been the same for 6 months now, compared to Pre covid on a like for like, week to week, comparison.




It isn’t. Long distance is actually the worst performing of the three sectors.

I do wonder whether the strikes and withdrawal of rest day working on a number of TOC's has caused passenger numbers to remain flat for 6 months.

This all began roughly 6 months ago as well.

 

[43066]

I do need to correct you here - passenger numbers are not rising. They have broadly been the same for 6 months now, compared to Pre covid on a like for like, week to week, comparison.

Fair enough. The trend will (hopefully!) be upwards with population growth, albeit accepting the current economic woes might be a drag.

It isn’t. Long distance is actually the worst performing of the three sectors.

I thought passenger numbers for IC were doing the best? I remember discussing figures that showed LNER were the only TOC back to over 100% pre Covid numbers.

Certainly at my operator the long distance bit is out performing the local bit.

 

[Peregrine 4903]

Fair enough. The trend will (hopefully!) be upwards with population growth, albeit accepting the current economic woes might be a drag.



I thought passenger numbers for IC were doing the best? I remember discussing figures that showed LNER were the only TOC back to over 100% pre Covid numbers.

Certainly at my operator the long distance bit is out performing the local bit.

Suspect Avanti, TPE and GWR long distance are probably holding the rest of it back.

 

[Tetchytyke]

Social housing isn't a free lunch. It costs a fortune in upkeep, repairs and rent arrears.

Never said it was, but at the end of it the council/housing association still has a social asset they own.

Selling social housing off to private landlords then paying those private landlords vast sums of money in housing benefit is insane.

A bit like selling a class 150 off for pence then paying £150,000 a year to borrow it back off the bank. No wonder "there's no money".

 

[newtownmgr]

Just an observation - I travelled on the peak am and pm today on Thameslink to Farringdon and on the Elizabeth line to and from Paddington. Both very , very busy with a mix of commuters and airport etc travellers.

The local trains in urban West Wales up the Valleys (off peak) were deserted - 2 trains had no fare paying passengers , and were in effect empty stock. 4 of the others had less than 20 passengers on a 3 car service ........

The main line service from Paddington to South Wales managed with no problem as a 5 car vice 9 or 10.

I hate to say it , but from today's experiences - the railway is carrying a lot of fresh air , outside the 2 (dare I say it) - London and South East service rail groups.

Try travelling around the West Mids & North West. Both areas also very busy both peak & off peak.

 

[TUC]

Housing benefit is a benefit paid to a private landlord to subsidise a private asset. Housing benefit costs are a direct consequence of Conservative policy to sell off social housing for peanuts and refuse to build any more. In 2013 the Mirror reported a third of ex-social housing in Wandsworth is now in the hands of private landlords.

Privatising profit and nationalising losses for the benefit of a chosen few. It's exactly the same in the railway industry.

We live in a far nicer house through renting from a private landlord than we would have got through social housing. How have people such as ourselves lost out?

 

[frodshamfella]

Try travelling around the West Mids & North West. Both areas also very busy both peak & off peak.

Quite so, its not just London and the SE thats busy, the NW and the Midlands are v busy too, except you never know if the train will even run up here

 

[ChiefPlanner]

Try travelling around the West Mids & North West. Both areas also very busy both peak & off peak.

I travel frequently all over - maybe less so in the North West (but recently in Merseyside) - all busy enough to be fair , - just a surprise to have such light loadings in urban South Wales - I shall "observe the traffic" in the South East on Friday. i

 

[43066]

We live in a far nicer house through renting from a private landlord than we would have got through social housing. How have people such as ourselves lost out?

On a standard assured short hold tenancy you won’t have any security of tenure, for one thing. If the landlord wants more rent than you’re willing/able to pay, or simply decides to sell the property, you’ll be out on your ear with two months’ notice. You also don’t have an asset (albeit this is a criticism of renting generally rather than social v private). Where I live rents have now increased to the point where they will exceed likely equivalent mortgage payments for many properties. A property I used to rent out commanded around £500 per month more in rent than my mortgage. Of course this is why it’s so difficult for many renters to save up a deposit to buy. Essentially impossible unless you’re on a very high income, or come into money via inheritance etc.

In London it’s now common for prospective tenants to be competing with others to secure properties. Anything less than perfect credentials and references, forget it.

 

[Tetchytyke]

We live in a far nicer house through renting from a private landlord than we would have got through social housing.

People reliant on housing benefits generally won't though: for private rental it is capped at the 30th centile for rent in the area (i.e. 70% of the market will be above budget).

The point is more that we're paying private landlords to house people in properties we used to own but flogged off for buttons, and we're paying them more than if it was still a social asset. It's a staggering transfer of wealth from social to private, for the benefit of a few.

The similarities with the ROSCO system is obvious, and the financial impact on the railway is just as stark.

 

[43066]

People reliant on housing benefits generally won't though: for private rental it is capped at the 30th centile for rent in the area (i.e. 70% of the market will be above budget).

The key difference is that council tenants have excellent security of tenure, and lower than market rate rents. Private renters pay a lot more these days because of the crazy market, and have zero security.

 

[Bald Rick]

I do wonder whether the strikes and withdrawal of rest day working on a number of TOC's has caused passenger numbers to remain flat for 6 months.

This all began roughly 6 months ago as well.

It’s a fair point, but the strike weeks themselves are excluded. For the weeks without strikes we have been flatlined. I agree the disruption caused by RDW bans etc May we’ll have suppressed numbers though.

I thought passenger numbers for IC were doing the best? I remember discussing figures that showed LNER were the only TOC back to over 100% pre Covid numbers.

Certainly at my operator the long distance bit is out performing the local bit.

Leisure travel is over 100%, but most of this is short / medium distance.

At your operator, the long distance part is out performing local because you are running many more ‘long’ distance trains then Pre Covid (and nabbing many passengers of a.n.other operator).

 

[NoMorePacers]

It is an interesting speculation of what would've happened if there was a rail link across the Humber. Certainly, it would have massively changed the pattern of services in the area. I think you're right that there would have been a big incentive to run Doncaster-Hull via Scunthorpe since that's much bigger than Goole - so Scunthorpe would've probably gained at Goole's expense.

Another change is that that the London-Hull service could've ended up running via Lincoln (and there may have been more incentive to include that route as a franchised commitment 20-ish years ago rather than waiting until an open access operator picked it up - since it would have had more scope for serving large towns away from the ECML).

For what it's worth I believe BR wanted to close the line from Goole to Gilberdyke around the time the Selby diversion was built - if a rail link over the Humber existed with Doncaster-Hull services diverting via Scunthorpe then that would've almost certainly happened.

In regards to the Barton line, I've used it a few times for the sake of it. Was never particularly busy, even with just a 153 on it. I would agree that there probably isn't a tremendous amount of Hull-Grimsby demand - of the two main cross-Humber buses, the 250 (Cleethorpes) is definitely the poorer relation in comparison to the 350 (Scunthorpe), the former has half the frequency of the latter and the last bus leaves for Hull at 5pm. In this regard the train is better as the last one to Barton leaves 4 hours later (there is a bus for onward travel to Hull even though it's an hour wait at Barton for it).

The one time I tried to buy a through Hull-Grimsby ticket on a TOC site it refused to even output a journey, so it doesn't look like through ticketing is utilised too much. An all day ticket on Stagecoach East Midlands is £7.80 though (which would cover you for a return trip and any onward travel at either end you might want to do) so I don't think the railway is winning there.

 

[A0wen]

Housing benefit is a benefit paid to a private landlord to subsidise a private asset. Housing benefit costs are a direct consequence of Conservative policy to sell off social housing for peanuts and refuse to build any more. In 2013 the Mirror reported a third of ex-social housing in Wandsworth is now in the hands of private landlords.

Privatising profit and nationalising losses for the benefit of a chosen few. It's exactly the same in the railway industry.

Bit in bold - in the interests of balance - more council houses were built in one year of tge Conservative govt between 1979-1997 than in the *whole* of the period of the Blair / Brown Labour government. Labour could have built council houses but chose not to over 13 years.

Evidence: https://fullfact.org/economy/who-built-more-council-houses-margaret-thatcher-or-new-labour/

 

[Mag_seven]

I think we will draw this one to a close now as it appears to be all over the place with not much in the way of the UK Railway being discussed.