It strikes me that the March lockdown probably was inevitable and, in my view, necessary the condition that hospitals were in shortly afterwards even with the NHS becoming effectively the National Covid Service for a while indicates that doing nothing or taking light touch measures was not really an option. People point to Sweden as never having needed a lockdown and that is true but, of course, Sweden entered the pandemic in a far stronger position by not having a health service which is constantly running at the redline and one bad bout of flu or other illness away from crisis. But, more importantly, by having a healthier population than the UK. What Covid has really exposed (but appears to have gone unremarked) is the absolutely dire state of our the health of our population. If you really wanted to save money, improve the NHS and make us better prepared for the next pandemic you'd be looking at ways of improving people's health.
People also pooh pooh the idea that the NHS was in crisis because "oh there's always a winter crisis" but then it's worth noting that that is typically a uniquely British phenomenon. Other health systems may have the odd bad year but it is the UK and the NHS that have some sort of crisis nearly every year where at least some NHS trusts end up declaring an emergency and cutting back on routine operations and services whilst transferring patients to neighbouring trusts. You can usually muddle your way through this when it's a handful of trusts across the country but when its potentially all of them at nearly the same time? This of course is, as above, linked to the poor general state of health of our population as well as the way that the NHS is always running right on the red line.
However, having said that the March lockdown was, in my opinion, a necessity, I do think that it then carried on for far longer than required and crucially after that initial "oh god we have to do something!" they kept it far stricter and in a more damaging way than was ever really necessary. It would have been perfectly sensible after a few days to get to grips with everything to make it clear that going out for exercise was not only allowed but encouraged, that a few people meeting up outdoors was also fine and to be encouraged, etc. Instead everyone basically encouraged to be as sedentary and as isolated as possible with the physical and mental health consequences that we're still dealing with now and likely will be for years to come.
It strikes me that the Government was slow to react to the coming threat, spending plenty of time dithering, ignoring evidence from how it was playing out elsewhere, believing in some weird "British Exceptionalism" would make us different to those silly Italians, and similar mad wibble. Then having been burned in March was then petrified of their own shadow (perhaps Boris was cowed by his own near death experience?) so kept it going with heavy restrictions rather than easing off after a three or four weeks and transitioning to lighter touch measures ala Sweden.
We then, of course, played hockey cokey for what felt like an interminable time with the utter nonsense that was the "tier system". I'll never get over that mad announcement that London would be going into Tier 1 but made in advance so everyone fled London spreading it everywhere making even more of a mockery of an already silly idea. Or those streets where houses on one side would be in say Tier 2 but the houses on the opposite side of the street were Tier 1 because of the post codes. That's before we get into all the corruption that went on with the various money hoses that got turned on and then sprayed to all sorts of dodgy characters who just happened to Tory friends, donors and family members...
Anyway, I got side tracked, to try and get back to some semblance of a point I do think that the March lockdown was, at least in some form, inevitable. But what happened afterwards I think is far more of a reflection on the utterly inept Government that we had which is completely unequal to the task that confronted them. You can argue that the advice they got wasn't up to task either but, at the end of the day, it was advice and it was up to those who were in charge to make the decisions on the basis of the advice and weigh up all the competing factors that were involved. That is, after all, the entire point of having a Government in the first place. To make decisions that balance those competing factors.