Reopen Penrith to Workington via Keswick

[paul1609]

And that figure was optimistic then. Fortunately we have lots of real world costs for building new railways since, all over the country. Most relvantly, East West Rail (Bicester - Bletchley) is outturning at between £40m and £50m a mile in cash values. Bear in mind that much of that is long since spent, and the cost would be higher if inflated to current prices.

Anyone proposing a new railway would be well advised to use that as a baseline, and explain what would make their propsal different (positively and negatively).

In this case I can think of several reasons why it would be technically more difficult (and therefore expensive) than EWR - requires completley new primary consent and would have to be deemed of national stategic importance compared to reasonable alternatives (my emphasis), location partly in a National Park, formation missing / washed away in places, some sections prone to flooding and further wash outs, formation built on in several locations, structures not maintained for 60 years, and only one where it would be less difficult - no need for a Bletchley Flyover.

Presumably East West the land was still in railway ownership whereas Penrith to Workington isn't so you have factor in the cost of land purchase as well?

 

[Bald Rick]

Presumably East West the land was still in railway ownership whereas Penrith to Workington isn't so you have factor in the cost of land purchase as well?

Mostly, yes.

 

[wilbers]

I must admit, having been at that junction M6 / A66 multiple times, car and bus, all times of day and week, mostly in spring / summer including school holidays.… I have never had anything remotely like ‘tremendous’ traffic congestion. (Most recent visit was weekend before last, in the evening at peak ‘going home after a day on the fells’ time). That’s not to say there isn’t congestion sometimes, but I suspect that for the vast majority of passengers on that bus service the arrival time into Penrith (which is the pertinent issue) is pretty reliable. It has always been on time when I have used it.

Its very specifically Friday afternoons, for example see :

‘Exasperated’ Penrith residents call for removal of traffic lights to avoid Friday gridlock

A petition calling for the removal of traffic lights at two Penrith roundabouts has been set up by residents “exasperated”

cwherald.com

Note that with the A66 upgrade that the Kemplay Bank roundabout (i.e. not the one with the M6 under it) will be changed so will affect traffic flow patterns.

 

[snowball]

Note that with the A66 upgrade that the Kemplay Bank roundabout (i.e. not the one with the M6 under it) will be changed so will affect traffic flow patterns.

It will put an underpass under the A6 roundabout, removing it as a traffic restriction, so quite likely increase traffic approaching/leaving the M6 J40 roundabout to/from the east.

 

[Ken H]

The old rail line is the car park and access to cocklakes farm shop and cafe trading as Base Camp on the A66 at Penruddock. Not sure how a reopening would be managed.

 

[Meerkat]

Is there even the demand for this - who is actually going to use it?
The Lake District is rammed in the peak holiday times, but empties out dramatically even in half season during the week. I think you would have the nightmare of empty trains a lot of the time and then people left behind when the sun comes out.
Im not sure the Lake District really wants even more day trippers funnelled into Keswick, meanwhile ruining the economics of the parallel bus route.
Spend a fraction of the money on improving the bus and it’s stops, and bus priority work.

 

[Killingworth]

I have a happy memory of sitting in the front seat behind the driver of a first generation DMU from Workington to Penrith in early 1958. They'd only recently been introduced. The train wasn't busy so I can understand why the line closed.

With all these restoration proposals I take out my OS maps and look at a satellite view. It's immediately apparent that Keswick to Workington is a total non-starter, Penrith to Keswick a challengingly expensive proposition.

I look at my old timetable for 1961 and see 9 trains a day, weekdays only, taking about 32 minutes between Penrith and Keswick with 4 stops - it meandered a little for 18.25 miles.

I recently took an X4 or X5 bus from Penrith to Keswick, both hourly so 2 per hour over the route. They potentially stop at a lot more than 4 places, timetable here; https://tiscon-maps-stagecoachbus.s3.amazonaws.com/Timetables/Cumbria/Lakes Connection/Summer 24/X4X5_Summer24.pdf

OK, they take nearer 40 minutes when not held up in traffic. The one I used was shared with backpackers, short hop locals, day trippers and smart tourists.

I cannot see a remotely acceptable business case for reconstructing a railway to compete with a quite acceptable bus service, better than many in other parts of the country.

BogiePicker said:
I think I've also seen a proposal from a while back for a new-build North Transpennine Main Line from Penrith to Darlington, 32 mins, 125mph VMax. Via Stainmore gap, Brough and Appleby. This could tie in with that.

Love it. Total fantasy, of course I also travelled that route to Darlington in 1958. 2 hours from Penrith to Darlington, 2 trains a day.

 

[Bletchleyite]

I must admit, having been at that junction M6 / A66 multiple times, car and bus, all times of day and week, mostly in spring / summer including school holidays.… I have never had anything remotely like ‘tremendous’ traffic congestion. (Most recent visit was weekend before last, in the evening at peak ‘going home after a day on the fells’ time). That’s not to say there isn’t congestion sometimes, but I suspect that for the vast majority of passengers on that bus service the arrival time into Penrith (which is the pertinent issue) is pretty reliable. It has always been on time when I have used it.

My experience is very different - of atrocious timekeeping and dropped journeys mostly caused by congestion approaching the M6 roundabout from the Keswick side. (The other way is always fine, but unless you put an hour's slack in the timetable at Penrith you can't deal with that on a hot summer's Saturday).

That could be dealt with very easily and cheaply by way of bus lanes and traffic-signal overtakes, though, you don't need a railway for that. And it is only there, there are no other pinch points bar Keswick itself (which could be improved by way of some strategically located bus gates).

However what is absolutely key is connection protection for rail travellers changing from the bus, particularly if the LNER proposal rolls out nationwide which would mean basically 90-odd per cent of long distance rail travellers being on Advances and thus a missed connection otherwise being incredibly costly.

 

[deltic08]

I have a happy memory of sitting in the front seat behind the driver of a first generation DMU from Workington to Penrith in early 1958. They'd only recently been introduced. The train wasn't busy so I can understand why the line closed.

With all these restoration proposals I take out my OS maps and look at a satellite view. It's immediately apparent that Keswick to Workington is a total non-starter, Penrith to Keswick a challengingly expensive proposition.

I look at my old timetable for 1961 and see 9 trains a day, weekdays only, taking about 32 minutes between Penrith and Keswick with 4 stops - it meandered a little for 18.25 miles.

I recently took an X4 or X5 bus from Penrith to Keswick, both hourly so 2 per hour over the route. They potentially stop at a lot more than 4 places, timetable here; https://tiscon-maps-stagecoachbus.s3.amazonaws.com/Timetables/Cumbria/Lakes Connection/Summer 24/X4X5_Summer24.pdf

OK, they take nearer 40 minutes when not held up in traffic. The one I used was shared with backpackers, short hop locals, day trippers and smart tourists.

I cannot see a remotely acceptable business case for reconstructing a railway to compete with a quite acceptable bus service, better than many in other parts of the country.

Love it. Total fantasy, of course I also travelled that route to Darlington in 1958. 2 hours from Penrith to Darlington, 2 trains a day.

32 minutes by heritage DMU can be improved on by modern DMU by at least one minute per station stop and even more on the climb from Penrith or from Threlkeld eastwards, say 28 minutes to-day. Line speed on new laid track could easily be 70mph, ezcept at Threlkeld to Keswick along the gorge so that will reduce time by another few minutes to say 25 minutes. Bus will always be 40 minutes or longer in the peak season. I would go by train but will never go by bus.

 

[yorksrob]

If Network Rail really are planning to abandon the coastal route due to climate change, perhaps this route becomes imperative.

 

[Bald Rick]

If Network Rail really are planning to abandon the coastal route due to climate change, perhaps this route becomes imperative.

Fortunately, that is not the case.

 

[yorksrob]

Fortunately, that is not the case.

I sincerely hope that you're correct.

In the light of the numerous threads on weather-related disruption on this forum, I thought this article in the Guardian was interesting, not only to show how carefully this is being thought about on a high level, but also because of the recognition that shrinking the railway, rather than extending/reopening, might be the only viable response.

UK rail faces fight to stay on track as climate crisis erodes routes

 

[Falcon1200]

It is a great pity that Penrith/Keswick was closed, but, like the rest of the route, it is not coming back, ever; Whereas the thread title is 'Reopen Penrith to Workington', what this actually means is build a new railway, using parts (only) of a long-abandoned line. The traffic will never justify the cost.

 

[paul1609]

Fortunately, that is not the case.

It'll be replaced by a battery bus service as part of the net zero beeching 2 scheme years before coastal erosion becomes critical

 

[yorksrob]

It'll be replaced by a battery bus service as part of the net zero beeching 2 scheme years before coastal erosion becomes critical

Don't give them ideas.

 

[deltic08]

It'll be replaced by a battery bus service as part of the net zero beeching 2 scheme years before coastal erosion becomes critical

Where on the Cumbrian coastal route is erosion a problem? Nowhere to my knowledge. All coastal erosion is on the East coast, not on the West coast.
The harbour breakwater at Workington has been extended three times in my lifetime because it has become isolated on land.

 

[daodao]

This line falls into the category shared by so many of our closed railway lines. I can think of three, maybe four, reopening proposals that I could fudge the numbers enough to make work on paper.

The rest all have the same problem. If we were doing Beeching now, we might decide not to close it, and that might be a good decision. But we aren't. The line did close. And now that it's closed, it's impractical to reopen.

A large number of fantasy re-opening proposals proposed on this forum are for lines through scenic rural areas, where the density of population is too low to provide the potential traffic nor is traffic congestion a significant issue. Penrith-Keswick (and beyond!?) is only of such examples.

Railway re-openings that are worth considering by contrast are those from significant towns and commuter settlements into major cities, particularly in deprived former industrial areas, e.g. Abertyleri/Abertillery to Aber-bîg/Aberbeeg on the re-opened Cwm Ebwy/Ebbw Vale line and beyond, and Newcastle to Consett (which could also serve the Beamish Museum).

 

[Meerkat]

However what is absolutely key is connection protection for rail travellers changing from the bus, particularly if the LNER proposal rolls out nationwide which would mean basically 90-odd per cent of long distance rail travellers being on Advances and thus a missed connection otherwise being incredibly costly.

But the cost of that will put an even bigger hole in the business case!

 

[rjccumbria]

I too have strong doubts about simply reopening without some hard thinking about what the reopened line would be for.
I would have thought there would be a much stronger case for a scenic if not that fast light rail link (not necessarily going the whole hog of an English Ffestiniog, although that might be a concept worth exploring,)

In the heyday of the CK&P, its chairman pointed out that it took three times the tractive power to haul a load over it compared to going via Maryport. Presumably much the same still applies so difficult to see much demand for through traffic

Back in the day it was also a complaint that standard carriages didn't allow an adequate view of the scenery , so special observation car stock could be a good idea

Whitehaven has enough difficulty marketing itself as a tourist destination; hoping to persuade tourist to take a 1 hour rail trip because it delivers them in Workington seems to be a bit optimistic...

 

[paul1609]

Where on the Cumbrian coastal route is erosion a problem? Nowhere to my knowledge. All coastal erosion is on the East coast, not on the West coast.
The harbour breakwater at Workington has been extended three times in my lifetime because it has become isolated on land.

Storm damaged Cumbrian Coast line set to reopen in one month

Repairs will soon be complete on a section of the Cumbrian Coast line left badly damaged by three consecutive storms earlier this year.

www.networkrailmediacentre.co.uk

 

[snowball]

As I understand it, north-west Britain is rising as the ground rebounds from the weight of ice on it during the ice ages, and the rate at which this is happening exceeds the rate of general rise in sea levels.

 

[wilbers]

A large number of fantasy re-opening proposals proposed on this forum are for lines through scenic rural areas, where the density of population is too low to provide the potential traffic nor is traffic congestion a significant issue. Penrith-Keswick (and beyond!?) is only of such examples.

Indeed, however through ticketing to Keswick (train ticket to Penrith combined with bus ticket to Keswick sold as one and printed/displayed like a rail only ticket) is possible, and as Bletchleyite posted when going in the Keswick->Penrith->wherever direction if the bus is delayed then combined bus/train ticket automatically valid on the next train (subject to operator restriction) even if its an advance. Probably delay repay not payable though for a bus only delay.

If the Penrith-Keswick section of the railway had survived to the late 1970s then it would still be running today, operating costs would justify it being operational today if it existed, but that is a very, very long way from construction costs being justified.

 

[Ken H]

As I understand it, north-west Britain is rising as the ground rebounds from the weight of ice on it during the ice ages, and the rate at which this is happening exceeds the rate of general rise in sea levels.

nearly. Scotland is rising and the English south coast is sinking. So Scotland has raised beaches, while S England has flooded valleys, like the Fal, the Tamar, the Dart, Poole Harbour, the Solent etc

 

[The Prisoner]

The Keswick - Workington section closed to give up parts of it's alignment to an improved A66. Leyland had been persuaded to open a factory in Workington to solve unemployment and insisted on a quicker route to the M6 at Penrith...closing that western section of the line to speed up the worst section with a straighter road was the solution.

So basically this route was killed by Pacers and Leyland National Buses.

And no it won't reopen any time soon. I lived in Penrith for years and my folks still do - would love to have seen it survive, but realistically how busy would it be.

 

[Bletchleyite]

realistically how busy would it be.

I think you would get a good indication by looking at how busy the Windermere branch is, as the demands surrounding it are very similar.

The Windermere branch is now running 6-car trains at some times of day...not a typical one man, dog and bicycle branch line!

 

[MisterSheeps]

I think you would get a good indication by looking at how busy the Windermere branch is, as the demands surrounding it are very similar.

Not sure i agree with this, most Lake District leisure traffic is from the south, and the Oxenholme to Windermere branch carries a small fraction of it. The A66 is important but nowhere near what the A591 carries. Try going on the 555 bus, most passengers get off by Grasmere, not continue to Keswick. Yes, some goes via M6 & A66 because of congestion around Ambleside, but it doesn't mean a Penrith - Keswick train would be 6 coaches, and much less traffic goes on from Keswick to Workington . If the line had survived it might have covered it's running costs, but it would not cover a reinstatement cost.

 

[Killingworth]

Not sure i agree with this, most Lake District leisure traffic is from the south, and the Oxenholme to Windermere branch carries a small fraction of it. The A66 is important but nowhere near what the A591 carries. Try going on the 555 bus, most passengers get off by Grasmere, not continue to Keswick. Yes, some goes via M6 & A66 because of congestion around Ambleside, but it doesn't mean a Penrith - Keswick train would be 6 coaches, and much less traffic goes on from Keswick to Workington . If the line had survived it might have covered it's running costs, but it would not cover a reinstatement cost.

Back in the 50s and 60s Keswick and Ullswater were favoured from Newcastle, Windermere far more so from Lancashire.

 

[Bletchleyite]

Back in the 60s and 60s Keswick and Ullswater were favoured from Newcastle, Windermere far more so from Lancashire.

Keswick will certainly be just as heaving as Ambleside this weekend, though mostly by car.

 

[TheWierdOne]

You must be joking. Unless this is very well veiled sarcasm, i cannot for the life of me fathom why anyone would ever propose this.


This is a new thread but I'll do them briefly.

I could make the Leamington line work on paper if it is run as a combination heavy rail/metro line, with metro providing a passenger service, and infrequent freight and heavy rail services.

I could make reopening the line to Cowley work if it was done bare budget and with one train in steam. This would require fudging the numbers to an extreme extent.

I could make the Sutton Park line work with basically any service level, because the line is already there. The problem is finding a service level that justifies the capital investment of building new stations, and that any reintroduction would also require capital expenditure to allow the paths to run

If I squinted, I could imagine a business case for the reopening of the Fraserburgh line, but this is primarily because the Scottish government puts different premiums on the social mobility of reopening, and ScotGov ask for the most optimistic business case, and a best estimate, whereas the UKGov ask for the most pessimistic and a best estimate.

Is there anywhere the two different criteria are available to read?

I'd be interested to know how many lines in England would suddenly become viable if one used the Scottish criteria. I'm firmly in the "build it and they will come" camp (induced demand really does work on trains as well as roads), especially in light of Okehampton where passenger numbers were double expectations, which leads me to think the numbers on whatever models the DfT uses may need tweaking.

I'd also to be curious to know if any consideration is seriously given to the utility of diversionary routes. On that front I'd be thinking that avoiding Dawlish (in the light of 2014, even with all the improvements to sea defences) would be a considerable boost to the Bere Alston - Tavistock - Okehampton line, even with basic infrastructure that allowed a skeleton service through in terms of disruption.

Similarly Uckfield - Lewes might be more viable if one considers all the money saved by having a diversionary route to Brighton from London (with/without a new west facing junction at Lewes to avoid reversals), that avoids the need for mass cancellations and delayrepay payments in the event of a serious incident on the two track bottleneck.

 

[The Prisoner]

Its very specifically Friday afternoons, for example see :

‘Exasperated’ Penrith residents call for removal of traffic lights to avoid Friday gridlock

A petition calling for the removal of traffic lights at two Penrith roundabouts has been set up by residents “exasperated”

cwherald.com

Note that with the A66 upgrade that the Kemplay Bank roundabout (i.e. not the one with the M6 under it) will be changed so will affect traffic flow patterns.

Skirsgill Roundabout is just as bad - the perfect example of a well designed roundabout ruined by traffic lights - more specifically the timing of the lights which never allows you round without stopping and blocking the traffic entering from the A66, M6 and A592 and which strongly favours traffic exiting the M6 - amount of times you sit waiting for the green to enter Penrith on the A592 whilst watching fresh air being waved through on the M6 slip from Carlisle is silly.