Restarting HS2a

[HSTEd]

The issue though is that high speed lines from Manchester to Liverpool, and Birmingham to Manchester won't actually help much of "The North".

I think you could build a high speed line in the north that would benefit very large numbers of people, but I also don't think HS2 or the current conception of NPR really resemble what such a scheme would look like. But I think that is definitely a topic that would warrant a separate discussion thread.

 

[paul1609]

I think you could build a high speed line in the north that would benefit very large numbers of people, but I also don't think HS2 or the current conception of NPR really resemble what such a scheme would look like. But I think that is definitely a topic that would warrant a separate discussion thread.

The whole of the Channel Coast in Kent is now labour following Thursday we should be demanding that every penny spent by labour in the north is matched by investment in Kent.

 

[Topological]

The issue though is that high speed lines from Manchester to Liverpool, and Birmingham to Manchester won't actually help much of "The North".

Indeed I imagine there will be people in smaller northern towns who see Manchester as being as privileged as London!

Indeed, it may well be going that way.

However, I see it as a hub and spoke type approach in which the connectivity of the hubs can be brought to benefit those in surrounding areas. Much the way that the South East gains from London, so the local provision into the towns around Manchester should spread the benefits accruing in Manchester. Only then can the actual high speed link to London bring benefit.

I think Liverpool to Manchester does help more, as would/will the Standedge into Manchester section of NPR.

If you were going to design a scheme to impact as much of the North of England as possible with "transformational impact", I'm not sure it would look much like HS2.
Much less the cut down sections that we might actually get built any time soon.

We need to rebalance the UK a little more in general. Manchester is growing well as a city on the international scale, but the connection to London will help even more. That is key for me.

Convincing anyone that HS2 (or even a better railway from Liverpool to Manchester) is the catalyst for a better life for many on the North is going to be a big challenge. The impact is too far away in the future.

Agree, and as with the other posters, there is much to be done to ensure that the benefits do get truly spread through the region and not concentrated in the core.

Elements like the HS2 section to Wigan and the NPR give greater coverage, but it is what is done with the spare paths that has the chance to be transformational.

I cannot say for definite, but I doubt there are many projects in the pipeline that can deliver what HS2 could. (No doubt there is much which could be crayoned up, but that is even further into the future and unlikely to come with the benefits that London connectivity adds to the Cost Benefit Analysis of HS2)

The whole of the Channel Coast in Kent is now labour following Thursday we should be demanding that every penny spent by labour in the north is matched by investment in Kent.

I suspect that given the domestic HS1, that might not get too far.

I appreciate the economics of Kent are far more complex than the commuter land image that we may perceive in the stereotype, but it would be an interesting debate to see the various claims on the exchequer fighting for the balance between the old industrial heartlands of the North and the garden of England that is Kent.

 

[takno]

Mildly off-topic, but one of the biggest challenges of late has been the ignorance of the Westminster government to the situation in the north. The geography of left-behindedness has brought about some quite worrying political trends and, of course, the 2019 Red Wall collapse. Labour have gone well beyond regaining their ground, but Reform are still sitting there to pounce on any discontent.

There are some quite strong arguments for Labour to show that they can bring HS2 north and stop it becoming just another example of a gain for the South. The Liverpool to Manchester line is a big part of securing the impact in the North. I suspect Labour are looking at this with a view to not losing the areas again.

Successive governments have been very good at directing investment south. With mayors in all the cities and the big majority in the commons, it is a good chance for Labour to show commitment further north.

Far from worrying about the vote potential of HS2, Labour should instead look at the transformational impact and ensure that impact benefits as many of the Labour areas to the North.

The Reform votes are mostly along the East Coast, and everything you've suggested really only benefits the Northwest. I don't think HS2 is a bad thing, but it's not as much of a political buffer as you are making out.

 

[Krokodil]

The whole of the Channel Coast in Kent is now labour following Thursday we should be demanding that every penny spent by labour in the north is matched by investment in Kent.

You've already got a high speed line, delivered under the last Labour Government. It's our turn now.

(I do accept that the lack of International services from Ashford and Ebbsfleet is a poor show though).

The Reform votes are mostly along the East Coast, and everything you've suggested really only benefits the Northwest

Surely Labour's election strategists will be hoping that Reform continues to see strong support where it has it, because it will maintain the split in the right wing vote.

 

[SynthD]

Would planning reform [help?]

No, as they’ve prepared the whole HS project for the current planning system. The much later stages, maybe the Goldborne link, may not have been developed as far.

The politics are being overthought. The full Y plan was non-politically determined to be worth doing. That is still the case.

 

[Peter Sarf]

I believe they should restart HS2 Phase 2a but rebrand it as something else. The term HS2 has developed strong negative connotations amongst voters, when they hear the term HS2, they think, waste of money

I think something like "Northern Link" even though its arguably innacurate.

They could announce a new rail line between Birmingham and Manchester via Crewe to increase capacity and patriotically name it the Churchill Line

In that case one would call it the "Carlse Line" !.

Or the Empire Line, after the Empire Windrush

Ooh dear.

Convincing anyone that HS2 (or even a better railway from Liverpool to Manchester) is the catalyst for a better life for many on the North is going to be a big challenge. The impact is too far away in the future.

I would say the real selling point would be Manchester to Liverpool and to Leeds for NPR or its replacement.

Point is NPR helps justify HS2 phase2a.

The whole of the Channel Coast in Kent is now labour following Thursday we should be demanding that every penny spent by labour in the north is matched by investment in Kent.

As an ex-Kent resident I agree.

Indeed, it may well be going that way.

However, I see it as a hub and spoke type approach in which the connectivity of the hubs can be brought to benefit those in surrounding areas. Much the way that the South East gains from London, so the local provision into the towns around Manchester should spread the benefits accruing in Manchester. Only then can the actual high speed link to London bring benefit.

I think Liverpool to Manchester does help more, as would/will the Standedge into Manchester section of NPR.



We need to rebalance the UK a little more in general. Manchester is growing well as a city on the international scale, but the connection to London will help even more. That is key for me.



Agree, and as with the other posters, there is much to be done to ensure that the benefits do get truly spread through the region and not concentrated in the core.

Elements like the HS2 section to Wigan and the NPR give greater coverage, but it is what is done with the spare paths that has the chance to be transformational.

I cannot say for definite, but I doubt there are many projects in the pipeline that can deliver what HS2 could. (No doubt there is much which could be crayoned up, but that is even further into the future and unlikely to come with the benefits that London connectivity adds to the Cost Benefit Analysis of HS2)

My argument would be that, much like HS2, NPR frees up capacity on existing lines.

I suspect that given the domestic HS1, that might not get too far.

I appreciate the economics of Kent are far more complex than the commuter land image that we may perceive in the stereotype, but it would be an interesting debate to see the various claims on the exchequer fighting for the balance between the old industrial heartlands of the North and the garden of England that is Kent.

Don't forget the old industrial hearlands of Kent. The Medway towns and Medway valley. Then there are (were) the coalmines in North East Kent. All went in the same Tory era of switching away from making things.

The worst thing about those of us who live in or near London (the South East) is our cost of living is higher. Housing is a significant cost and a lot more for all the many people who don't have the high paid jobs.

No, as they’ve prepared the whole HS project for the current planning system. The much later stages, maybe the Goldborne link, may not have been developed as far.

The politics are being overthought. The full Y plan was non-politically determined to be worth doing. That is still the case.

I think the "Y" shape for HS2 was a bit divisive for the North. It allowed for faster travel to London but eliminated improvements for within the North. So I was always in favour of HS2 reaching Leeds by getting beyond Manchester to Leeds.

I do believe the North gains from better connectivity with London. Bringing Manchester etc closer to London helps spread the opportunities.

 

[HSTEd]

The politics are being overthought. The full Y plan was non-politically determined to be worth doing. That is still the case.

Given the extensive influence of politicians on every stage of HS2's development I am not sure we can discount political factors on the selection of the Y route.

Subsequent cost growth, as well as factors like the ongoing impacts of coronavirus have hardly helped matters. I must admit, I am skeptical that decisions made circa 2010 are still optimal today.


In any case, HS2 Ltd has managed to squander 15 years of broad political consensus on high speed rail. They have only managed to deliver a line from Old Oak Common to Handsacre (with a Branch to Birmingham).

It will be politically difficult to obtain consensus behind another high speed project if it resembles an attempt to restart HS2.

 

[Topological]

[Part cut from here]

Don't forget the old industrial hearlands of Kent. The Medway towns and Medway valley. Then there are (were) the coalmines in North East Kent. All went in the same Tory era of switching away from making things.

The worst thing about those of us who live in or near London (the South East) is our cost of living is higher. Housing is a significant cost and a lot more for all the many people who don't have the high paid jobs.

I think the "Y" shape for HS2 was a bit divisive for the North. It allowed for faster travel to London but eliminated improvements for within the North. So I was always in favour of HS2 reaching Leeds by getting beyond Manchester to Leeds.

I do believe the North gains from better connectivity with London. Bringing Manchester etc closer to London helps spread the opportunities.

I was trying to make the point that there are parts of Kent where the stereotypes do not apply. Having been to Priestfield enough over the years, the challenges in the Medway are real to me. The problem is that much of this gets masked in the wider public perception because Kent is prime London commuter territory. I do agree that things need to be done to address those challenges, but arguments about balanced funding with the North would fall on deaf ears.

The Y addresses the division within the North, that is very true. A route which went to Manchester and then Leeds would make Leeds appear second to Manchester. That would be politically challenging. I think having the NPR line across the top works best as both get the benefits of the London connection and there is a fast connection between Manchester and Leeds. The Y also allows a positive impact through the Nottingham coalfields in a way that a route via Manchester would not.

Whilst HS2 is delayed and overbudget that is just "Tory mismanagement" along similar lines to PPE and the general Covid response, the Truss mini-budget etc. It will not be hard for Labour to sell a restart of HS2 if it wants to.

 

[MarkyT]

A route which went to Manchester and then Leeds would make Leeds appear second to Manchester. That would be politically challenging. I think having the NPR line across the top works best as both get the benefits of the London connection and there is a fast connection between Manchester and Leeds. The Y also allows a positive impact through the Nottingham coalfields in a way that a route via Manchester would not.

Routing London - north east services through Manchester would also eat up a lot of capacity through the city and on the trans-pennine leg, leaving fewer slots for NPR trains to Liverpool. It also does nothing for the West Midlands to East Midlands/South Yorkshire axis.

Whilst HS2 is delayed and overbudget that is just "Tory mismanagement" along similar lines to PPE and the general Covid response, the Truss mini-budget etc. It will not be hard for Labour to sell a restart of HS2 if it wants to.

Especially if it can be sold on the broader network benefits, especially in reusing capacity gained by rerouting expresses for local service improvements and freight growth.

 

[hwl]

The issue though is that high speed lines from Manchester to Liverpool, and Birmingham to Manchester won't actually help much of "The North".

Indeed I imagine there will be people in smaller northern towns who see Manchester as being as privileged as London!

It removes fast services of existing lines allowing the potential for local services to be improved.

 

[Topological]

It removes fast services of existing lines allowing the potential for local services to be improved.

In the case of HS2 in Manchester, the line faces in the wrong direction really.

Possibly, the Scotland train can be routed via HS2, but that requires the chord that was cancelled.

Slots over Stockport viaduct emerge, but those help commuters in South Manchester rather than North.

NPR may create paths, but would actually have to be delivered as proposed using the HS infrastructure out to the airport, and to have the tunnel to Standedge. NPR will be the one that benefits the North West most widely from a path perspective.

Nonetheless, we need the economic connectivity between Manchester and London that HS2 provides to unlock spillovers in the North. That, more than the train service opportunities, is what makes the decision to scrap HS2 north of Handsacre all the more short-sighted.

 

[eldomtom2]

I believe they should restart HS2 Phase 2a but rebrand it as something else. The term HS2 has developed strong negative connotations amongst voters, when they hear the term HS2, they think, waste of money

New Grand Junction Railway, perhaps?

 

[Peter Sarf]

I was trying to make the point that there are parts of Kent where the stereotypes do not apply. Having been to Priestfield enough over the years, the challenges in the Medway are real to me. The problem is that much of this gets masked in the wider public perception because Kent is prime London commuter territory. I do agree that things need to be done to address those challenges, but arguments about balanced funding with the North would fall on deaf ears.

The Y addresses the division within the North, that is very true. A route which went to Manchester and then Leeds would make Leeds appear second to Manchester. That would be politically challenging. I think having the NPR line across the top works best as both get the benefits of the London connection and there is a fast connection between Manchester and Leeds. The Y also allows a positive impact through the Nottingham coalfields in a way that a route via Manchester would not.

Whilst HS2 is delayed and overbudget that is just "Tory mismanagement" along similar lines to PPE and the general Covid response, the Truss mini-budget etc. It will not be hard for Labour to sell a restart of HS2 if it wants to.

Yes the main banefit of the "Y"formation was for Nottingham shire and thereabouts. Plus the perceived benefit for Leeds of being brought closer to London but not via them lot on the other side of the Pennines.

I would say spend the money on NPR and then link HS2 to it at Manchester. Then in later years if demand dictates (Manchester - Leeds high speed route full) build the "Y" shape (branch from near Birmingham across to Nottingham-shire and up to Leeds). By which time the Southern end of HS2 might well be full (especially if Euston is strangled) and so a new High Speed line to London tempting !.

Above arguably conjecture drifting off topic BUT I think the future of HS2 phase 2a depends on bearing in mind the longer term aspirations. I suppose completing the "Y" is further off into the distant future than Linking Liverpool - Manchester - Leeds.

If this were France........

 

[hwl]

In the case of HS2 in Manchester, the line faces in the wrong direction really.

Possibly, the Scotland train can be routed via HS2, but that requires the chord that was cancelled.

Slots over Stockport viaduct emerge, but those help commuters in South Manchester rather than North.

NPR may create paths, but would actually have to be delivered as proposed using the HS infrastructure out to the airport, and to have the tunnel to Standedge. NPR will be the one that benefits the North West most widely from a path perspective.

Nonetheless, we need the economic connectivity between Manchester and London that HS2 provides to unlock spillovers in the North. That, more than the train service opportunities, is what makes the decision to scrap HS2 north of Handsacre all the more short-sighted.

I was talking about HS2b and NPR combined, which directly helps on all the Manchester corridors apart from the via Bolton and Atherton corridors (and indirectly helps those as well) and three routes into Liverpool.

 

[HSTEd]

Routing London - north east services through Manchester would also eat up a lot of capacity through the city and on the trans-pennine leg, leaving fewer slots for NPR trains to Liverpool. It also does nothing for the West Midlands to East Midlands/South Yorkshire axis.

If an NPR line is constructed, it is not going to be near capacity in any realistic scenario.
The HS2 Y plan became a terrible idea the second Sheffield demanded, and received, the elimination of the Meadowhall station.
Which is why it was the first section to be axed as the scheme disintegrated

The inverse S, possibly with a branch to East Midlands parkway is clearly the best of the bad choices for continuing HS2, if that is what we want to do.

Especially if it can be sold on the broader network benefits, especially in reusing capacity gained by rerouting expresses for local service improvements and freight growth.

Rail capacity in most of the north of england isn't constrained by infrastructure limitations, it is primarily constrained by political willingness to apply operating subsidies.
If enough operational subsidies were available increasing train lengths would put capacity through the roof!

Beyond that, HS2 has only a very limited effect on things like Castlefield, which is where the true constraints are.


EDIT:
On NPR capacity, with a new line you could have:
6 trains per hour London-North East via Manchester
3 trains per hour Birmingham-North East via Manchester
4 trains per hour Liverpool-North East

And still have paths spare!

 

[Energy]

I would say spend the money on NPR and then link HS2 to it at Manchester. Then in later years if demand dictates (Manchester - Leeds high speed route full) build the "Y" shape (branch from near Birmingham across to Nottingham-shire and up to Leeds). By which time the Southern end of HS2 might well be full (especially if Euston is strangled) and so a new High Speed line to London tempting !.

Agreed

HS2: London - Birmingham - Crewe - Golborne Link
HS3: Liverpool - Manchester - Leeds
HS4: HS2 - East Midlands Hub
HS5: East Midlands Hub - Leeds via Sheffield. (Far in the future)

I'm aware that the lengths are increasibly varying with HS2 being many times longer than HS4, but I think its less confusing then HS2 2b East and whatnot.

We should try and avoid "phases", while it makes sense from a timetabling of works perspective it makes it look like the project is several combined and parts can be scrapped. Putting HS2 (as above) as one project which would open all at once makes it much more difficult to get rid of bits.

The HS2 Y plan became a terrible idea the second Sheffield demanded, and received, the elimination of the Meadowhall station.
Which is why it was the first section to be axed as the scheme disintegrated

Indeed, 2b East only works for Sheffield otherwise Manchester+NPR makes more sense and is very unlikely to be full anytime soon.

 

[Trainbike46]

We don't appear to have a truly workable plan for the reconstruction of Euston however, which is how the project got kicked into the long grass in the first place.

Both attempts to design such a station have failed and it will be years until a plan can be drawn up and even longer to start construction.

That is assuming that the third attempt produces a more suitable design than the last two.

The chances of that happening would be significantly improved if the government decides on a brief, and requirements, for the new station, and then sticks to it. And in addition, it needs to assess the design in a way that makes sense with the criteria chosen! Unlike what the previous government was doing where one department insisted on oversite development while another department insisted on not spending the money on foundations capable of supporting said oversite development. And certainly no repeated changes of the design brief after loads of money has been spent on detailed design for the previous brief!

genuinely, repeatedly changing what a project is supposed to achieve is a really frustrating way to ensure everything gets more expensive!

 

[CdBrux]

Not forgetting that Labour have mad achieving economic growth a key part of their economic strategy, but how are they going to achieve that growth if they don‘t invest in schemes like HS2a to deliver it?

What will HS2a deliver for growth in the next 10 years? I suggest a series of local transport initiatives will deliver a lot quicker

 

[Energy]

What will HS2a deliver for growth in the next 10 years? I suggest a series of local transport initiatives will deliver a lot quicker

May I suggest that you should detail examples of what these local transport initiatives would be.

Ultimately, we need more capacity between London and Manchester. Manchester needs more local rail capacity which can be achieved by moving long distance trains to NPR/HS2.

 

[Howardh]

(I do accept that the lack of International services from Ashford and Ebbsfleet is a poor show though).

Any chance that under the new government these can be restated??

As I have posted on my thread about yesterday's appalling service around Bolton, our new MP's have been in the thick of it this morning, trying to get to parliament and finding, yes, trains cancelled!! So hopefully now they know what it's like for the rest of us it will concentrate their minds, not just local connections but also HS2 and get it to Crewe; and my personal plea to get a direct link form Bolton to London again!

Newspaper coverage here -

Why is this evening's service - Bolton>Manchester so poor?

Virtually no trains running, just the 1834 (if it turns up) and the 1954 to get me there and it has to be Piccadilly. If it were engineering works, surely there would be bustitutions? So is there a strike on? Overtime strike? Staff off ill?? I feel for anyone returning tot he airport after a...

www.railforums.co.uk

 

[Nottingham59]

Ultimately, we need more capacity between London and Manchester.

Though of course that could have been achieved by running longer trains on the WCML.

 

[HSTEd]

May I suggest that you should detail examples of what these local transport initiatives would be.

Ultimately, we need more capacity between London and Manchester. Manchester needs more local rail capacity which can be achieved by moving long distance trains to NPR/HS2.

No part of HS2 that will be available in the next decade will provide meaningful increases in local rail capacity in Manchester.
HS2b is probably a decade from even starting construction even if plans were restarted now.

You could almost certainly throw up trolleybuses, urban ropeways or the like this decade, starting now.

Assuming the treasury plays ball, a guided busway could be built in less than a decade!

 

[Howardh]

Though of course that could have been achieved by running longer trains on the WCML.

What is the maximum length of carriages that could be used, and would that mean not being able to stop at stations such as Macclesfield/Nuneaton etc if extended?

 

[Trainbike46]

Though of course that could have been achieved by running longer trains on the WCML.

can it? as I understand it, 11-car is very much the limit on most of the existing infrastructure, including most (but not all) platforms at Euston, and all platforms at Liverpool. I doubt there is loads of spare length at Manchester.

What is the maximum length of carriages that could be used, and would that mean not being able to stop at stations such as Macclesfield/Nuneaton etc if extended?

For intermediate stations, selective door opening is an option.

Assuming the treasury plays ball, a guided busway could be built in less than a decade!

given the experiences in places that have guided busways I would suggest a certain level of caution is due there as well

And everything can take forever if you want it to, the new busway parallel to Madingley road in Cambridge is an example of something that was consulted on back in 2018 or 2019, and there still isn't a decision on whether this is actually going ahead, let alone a start of construction

 

[FGWHST43009]

Routing London - north east services through Manchester would also eat up a lot of capacity through the city and on the trans-pennine leg, leaving fewer slots for NPR trains to Liverpool. It also does nothing for the West Midlands to East Midlands/South Yorkshire axis.

Especially if it can be sold on the broader network benefits, especially in reusing capacity gained by rerouting expresses for local service improvements and freight growth.

Yes the main banefit of the "Y"formation was for Nottingham shire and thereabouts. Plus the perceived benefit for Leeds of being brought closer to London but not via them lot on the other side of the Pennines.

I would say spend the money on NPR and then link HS2 to it at Manchester. Then in later years if demand dictates (Manchester - Leeds high speed route full) build the "Y" shape (branch from near Birmingham across to Nottingham-shire and up to Leeds). By which time the Southern end of HS2 might well be full (especially if Euston is strangled) and so a new High Speed line to London tempting !.

Above arguably conjecture drifting off topic BUT I think the future of HS2 phase 2a depends on bearing in mind the longer term aspirations. I suppose completing the "Y" is further off into the distant future than Linking Liverpool - Manchester - Leeds.

If this were France........

Slightly off topic but what to do about HS2 to Leeds? I get the feeling there's been a lot more noise over the cancellation of Birmingham-Manchester than Birmingham-Leeds. If we're not getting HS2 to Leeds/York then what should be done instead?

 

[HSTEd]

If you wanted low hanging fruit on London-MAnchester capacity, you'd probably relax the extreme peak pricing policy so the trains are consistently full throughout the day.

Eliminate the cliff edge for crowding between the last peak and first off peak train, for example.

Slightly off topic but what to do about HS2 to Leeds? I get the feeling there's been a lot more noise over the cancellation of Birmingham-Manchester than Birmingham-Leeds. If we're not getting HS2 to Leeds/York then what should be done instead?

If a high speed line exists from Leeds to Manchester, HS2 trains would reach Leeds via Manchester.

 

[FGWHST43009]

It'll be interesting to see if the government has a look at Chris's Gibb's proposal with Pendolinos

 

[takno]

Slightly off topic but what to do about HS2 to Leeds? I get the feeling there's been a lot more noise over the cancellation of Birmingham-Manchester than Birmingham-Leeds. If we're not getting HS2 to Leeds/York then what should be done instead?

Finish off 2a, and ideally the Golborne Link. Move all the Scotland-London traffic onto HS2, and use the released space to increase frequency (and possibly run some stuff at 140mph) on the East Coast. You should still probably been HS2 to Leeds/York as well, but that gives you something in the 20 additional years the Eastern leg would take.

 

[Krokodil]

What will HS2a deliver for growth in the next 10 years? I suggest a series of local transport initiatives will deliver a lot quicker

Phase 2a is almost shovel-ready so you've got the economic activity which directly results from the construction. Unlike most of what was included in Notwork North, many items being planned only in crayon.

Any chance that under the new government these can be restated??

Maybe EES will streamline border formalities and encourage Eurostar to bring back the more marginal parts of their former service.