Restarting HS2a

[HSTEd]

Prisons are needed, however at around £300 million for 1,700 spaces you could double the prison capacity for £17bn and so even £9bn (+50% of prison capacity) would be excessive, especially given that you'd still have the issue of the costs of running them.

Well it would permit the bulk of the current estate, much of which is substandard and very expensive to operate, to be disposed of.....

Replacing the entire pre-1990 prison estate is probably not a bad idea, certainly anything from before 1950. But rather off topic.

 

[Xenophon PCDGS]

The matter of prisons, hospitals and schools are "on topic" as they directly related to the same amount of projected spending on HS2a. The money would be far better spent on matters such as three items quoted which would be for the benefit of the population as a whole, rather than just one particular aspect, that Government chose to cancel.

 

[The Ham]

The matter of prisons, hospitals and schools are "on topic" as they directly related to the same amount of projected spending on HS2a. The money would be far better spent on matters such as three items quoted which would be for the benefit of the population as a whole, rather than just one particular aspect, that Government chose to cancel.

It depends, not all infrastructure spending will result in the same impact on the economy.

New prisons reducing maintenance costs by getting rid of the old estate are going to have a different outcome than a new railway line which allows people to get about more easily.

 

[Xenophon PCDGS]

It depends, not all infrastructure spending will result in the same impact on the economy.

New prisons reducing maintenance costs by getting rid of the old estate are going to have a different outcome than a new railway line which allows people to get about more easily.

I suppose people attach more personal priorities to certain matters than others.

 

[The Ham]

I suppose people attach more personal priorities to certain matters than others.

Whilst that's true, what people doesn't generally factor in the BCR of government spending.

 

[Wolfie]

Whilst that's true, what people doesn't generally factor in the BCR of government spending.

Not to mention the "net current value (of money)/discounted cashflow" calculations.... Spot the man who has actually written cases for expenditure for ministerial consideration.

 

[Krokodil]

Not to mention the "net current value (of money)/discounted cashflow" calculations

Could you possibly expand on those?

 

[Wolfie]

Could you possibly expand on those?

Shamelessly stolen as I'm no accountant.

Net present value (NPV) is a financial metric that helps organisations determine if an investment or project will increase their value. It's the difference between the current value of cash inflows and outflows over a specific time period. To calculate NPV, you discount all future cash flows to the present day and then add them together. The resulting number is the investment's NPV.

 

[Krokodil]

Thanks for trying to explain it

 

[Wolfie]

Thanks for trying to explain it

Welcome. One of the key things is putting all income/expenditure on a fixed basis (eg FY25/26 £) and looking at the opportunity costs of spending on that basis.

It's one heck of a "black art".

 

[td97]

Amazingly, the DfT has confirmed no properties on the 2a corridor have been sold.

No properties bought up for the northern leg of HS2 have been sold since the project was scrapped, the Department for Transport (DfT) has confirmed.

Phase two of the high-speed rail line linking the West Midlands to Manchester was cancelled by former Prime Minister Rishi Sunak in October, amid rising costs.

Transport minister Lord Peter Hendy of Richmond Hill told the House of Lords he understood no sales had been made.

No HS2 Crewe to Manchester leg properties sold - minister

Lord Peter Hendy of Richmond Hill says no properties have been sold since the scheme was scrapped.

www.bbc.co.uk

Just get it restarted and get it built!

 

[Bradford1]

"The Labour Government is discussing whether to make further cuts to the HS2 rail project by ditching the Euston leg, according to The Sunday Times."

Quite surprised that a Labour Government is considering this.

 

[Energy]

Quite surprised that a Labour Government is considering this.

For others, that extract is from here. (paywall but visible via archive websites)

The text is about the £20bn blackhole which the government needs to sort out. The article briefly mentions HS2 to Euston and mentions the possibility of a tax levy similar to the Northern Line Extension to recuperate the construction cost of the tunnels. The full Euston station itself should be able to fund itself via the oversite developments. However, I could see the Treasury handing the construction + funding + operation for X years off to a private company to reduce their risk.

While cancellation isn't impossible the article notes that "there are fears that cancelling infrastructure schemes aimed at improving Britain’s connectivity will have a detrimental effect on the economy in the long term". Funding the tunnels via debt and paid back via a tax levy is quite possible, debt that funds infrastructure assets has a far more preferable credit rating than debt for day-to-day expenditure.

I think HS2 to Euston isn't at enormous risk with raised taxes and a decrease in the use of hotels for housing asylum seekers being more likely, though I wouldn't be surprised if the Stonehenge tunnel is quietly forgotten about. The Times article doesn't even mention HS2 as one of the key points.

A Treasury-funded HS2 2a is almost certainly off the table, but if the private plan found some financial backing it would likely get the signoff.

 

[Xenophon PCDGS]

Amazingly, the DfT has confirmed no properties on the 2a corridor have been sold.

No HS2 Crewe to Manchester leg properties sold - minister

Lord Peter Hendy of Richmond Hill says no properties have been sold since the scheme was scrapped.

www.bbc.co.uk

Just get it restarted and get it built!

I think it will be interesting to see what matters are announced by the Chancellor today, should the "multi-billion black hole" in the finances sees any Governmental cancellation of projects.

 

[Snow1964]

I think it will be interesting to see what matters are announced by the Chancellor today, should the "multi-billion black hole" in the finances sees any Governmental cancellation of projects.

I think we are going to have to be very careful with terminology, a cancelled project is not same as deferred one.

Rachel Reeves has also talked lot about getting upto £60bn of private sector investment, so some schemes might go ahead on some sort of shared financing basis, or where Government pays once built etc.

Personally I am expecting a lot of politics, blaming the previous lot rather than being positive and in some way getting on with projects that are urgently needed. But we will know in few hours time.

 

[Xenophon PCDGS]

I think we are going to have to be very careful with terminology, a cancelled project is not same as deferred one.

Rachel Reeves has also talked lot about getting upto £60bn of private sector investment, so some schemes might go ahead on some sort of shared financing basis, or where Government pays once built etc.

Personally I am expecting a lot of politics, blaming the previous lot rather than being positive and in some way getting on with projects that are urgently needed. But we will know in few hours time.

I am sure that Rachel Reeves is fully aware of the difference in that terminology. As Chamcellor, she will look to the betterment of the finances on actually planned projects that could be terminated.

Matters such as HS2a that have already been cancelled by the previous Government will be most unlikely to be resurrected where Governmental monies will be needed as part of a restart or larger Government finance requirements on completion of the project,

Let us see exactly what is said today by the Chancellor rather than pre-judging matters that you purport may be said.

 

[Fazaar1889]

Amazingly, the DfT has confirmed no properties on the 2a corridor have been sold.

No HS2 Crewe to Manchester leg properties sold - minister

Lord Peter Hendy of Richmond Hill says no properties have been sold since the scheme was scrapped.

www.bbc.co.uk

Just get it restarted and get it built!

While this is true, planning permissions have been granted. Albeit temporary

https://www-cheshire--live-co-uk.cd...ire-news/cheshire-gypsy-site-gets-go-29619541

 

[Backroom_boy]

The headlines today aren't looking promising

 

[Energy]

While this is true, planning permissions have been granted. Albeit temporary

Some clarification, the Treasury has been leasing HS2 land out while it is unused. Usually it would be used for farming or other purposes which do not need planning permission but since safeguarding has been removed, developers are allowed to apply for planning permission on the land.

The land is still leased and HS2 can take it back (under the terms of the lease) when it is required. The 5 years planning permission is a maximum before it needs to be reapplied for and HS2 or the tenant can use the land for other purposes before the end of the 5 years.

The headlines today aren't looking promising

They are all just reporting the same Times article but with worse standards. The Times didn't even pick HS2 out in the key points but did pick out the Stonehenge tunnel for potential 'forgetting'...

Cancelling this bit of HS2 will look bad on the UKs infrastructure investment while the Stonehenge tunnel is universally unpopular for either: being increadibly expensive, removing the view of Stonehenge or major constructions works by Stonehenge.

Rachel Reeves has also talked lot about getting upto £60bn of private sector investment, so some schemes might go ahead on some sort of shared financing basis, or where Government pays once built etc.

IIRC France has been using private finance to help fund new TGV lines.

A potential option is leasing the HS2 trains to provide the capital to fund HS2 Euston tunnels. Leasing rolling stock is a far more established market here than infrastructure.

 

[Mikey C]

Cancelling this bit of HS2 will look bad on the UKs infrastructure investment while the Stonehenge tunnel is universally unpopular for either: being increadibly expensive, removing the view of Stonehenge or major constructions works by Stonehenge.

There will be many people in the West Country, desperate for the Stonehenge Tunnel to be built.

 

[takno]

There will be many people in the West Country, desperate for the Stonehenge Tunnel to be built.

Universally unpopular might be an overstatement. There's a really clear need to do something about the awful road access to a large region of the country, but there's fairly widespread agreement that it's an expensive project for a still-pretty-unsatisfactory outcome. There's a good chance that the courts will end up delaying it for a year or two anyway, so it probably makes sense to get it out of the budget and have a rethink.

 

[Energy]

There will be many people in the West Country, desperate for the Stonehenge Tunnel to be built.

Many, including me, want this section of the A303 to be sorted but cannot see why a normal dual carriage way cannot be built as the land is very flat and the road isn't particularly close to Stonehenge (the much closer A344 closed years ago).

HS2 Euston tunnels are different in not having a substantially cheaper but just as good capacity-wise alternative.

Universally unpopular might be an overstatement

Universally not-popular is probably a more closer statement.

 

[Xenophon PCDGS]

Cancelling this bit of HS2 will look bad on the UKs infrastructure investment

If you are referring to HS2a, had that particular "bit" had already been cancelled by the previous Government?

 

[Energy]

If you are referring to HS2a, had that particular "bit" had already been cancelled by the previous Government?

Apologies - this bit refers to the Euston tunnels.

 

[Mikey C]

Many, including me, want this section of the A303 to be sorted but cannot see why a normal dual carriage way cannot be built as the land is very flat and the road isn't particularly close to Stonehenge (the much closer A344 closed years ago).

The Stonehenge tunnels were about taking the road away from the wider landscape, which is far more than just the stones. Dualling the existing road is a complete no no.

 

[Xenophon PCDGS]

The Stonehenge tunnels were about taking the road away from the wider landscape, which is far more than just the stones. Dualling the existing road is a complete no no.

Considering this speculative thread concerns itself with an aspirational reopening of HS2a, the proposal to reopen it appears to be a much longer envisaged project with the Stonehenge area being mentioned...

 

[The Ham]

Many, including me, want this section of the A303 to be sorted but cannot see why a normal dual carriage way cannot be built as the land is very flat and the road isn't particularly close to Stonehenge (the much closer A344 closed years ago).

HS2 Euston tunnels are different in not having a substantially cheaper but just as good capacity-wise alternative.

Universally not-popular is probably a more closer statement.

It's generally not a significant problem if you avoid travelling during the daytime on the weekends during the summer months.

Yes there's delays, but if you work in the assumption that you're 3+ hour journey is going to be delayed by 30 minutes (and it would generally happen wherever your traveling that's more than 3 hours) then it's unlikely to be much of an issue.

The thing is that even fixing Stonehenge isn't going to fix all the problems so there's a good chance you'd just get stuck in traffic at the next pinch point.

Also, whilst the amount of traffic is a factor, the point at which the traffic starts going faster is as soon as a driver can no longer easily see the stones.

 

[takno]

The thing is that even wiring Stonehenge isn't going to fix all the problems so there's a good chance you'd just get stuck in traffic at the next pinch point.

Wiring Stonehenge is certainly out-of-the-box thinking, but I'm not sure it will help at all

 

[Mag_seven]

If anyone wants to discuss Stonehenge or anything else that isn't restarting HS2a then please start a new thread.

thanks

 

[Connacht]

I am not based in Britain, so may not be up-to-date, sorry.

Has HS2 phase 2a been designed? Finalised?

If budgets are tight, is it too late to re-design it to make it cheaper?

For example, reduce top speed from 360kph to 320kph? Or remove tunnels?