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Restarting HS2a

FMerrymon

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As a train nerd I love the concept of HS2, and there have been mitigating factors but they all seem to add 1bn here, 3-4bn there. The facts are that the cost has ballooned from around 40bn to 72-98bn (all 2019 prices), and that’s for less than half the original route. It’s not unreasonable to estimate that the ‘full’ thing would have been £150bn, almost x5 the original estimate. The original estimate was so poor it’s beyond comprehension.

The original budget was £62.3bn in 2019 prices. 98bn in 2019 prices was the reset budget before go ahead. It was for the full y, not half.

Current funding envelope for phase 1 is £54bn in 2019 prices. That's up from £44.5bn in 2019 prices, it's budget within the 98bn for the full route

If it ended up 5x original budget, it would be £312bn in 2019 prices. Highly unlikely.
 
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YorkshireBear

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The original budget was £62.3bn in 2019 prices. 98bn in 2019 prices was the reset budget before go ahead. It was for the full y, not half.

Current funding envelope for phase 1 is £54bn in 2019 prices. That's up from £44.5bn in 2019 prices, it's budget within the 98bn for the full route

If it ended up 5x original budget, it would be £312bn in 2019 prices. Highly unlikely.
They have also muddied the waters by including rolling stock in some statements on the up to date cost whereas it was never included in the original costs. I'm trying to find the info, but it was covered in Green signals.
 

Krokodil

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They have also muddied the waters by including rolling stock in some statements on the up to date cost whereas it was never included in the original costs. I'm trying to find the info, but it was covered in Green signals.
And you'd be paying for the rolling stock anyway because the Pendos will become life-expired and need replacement.
 

FMerrymon

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Yes, the 2010 estimate separated construction and rolling stock costs, but only calculated the rolling stock cost of phase 1. 2011 estimate is often presented with rolling stock. Both those figures were in 2009 prices.

The 2012 figure separated construction and rolling stock figures and it's in 2011 prices. In 2013, the original funding envelope was presented in 2011 prices and with rolling stock. The 62.3bn figure I quoted was the 2013 original budget updated to 2019 prices and as such includes rolling stock, as all prices have done since.

And you'd be paying for the rolling stock anyway because the Pendos will become life-expired and need replacement.

It was a bit odd to include them in the capital costs considering they were likely to be leased. No other European country includes rolling stock in their high speed line construction budgets. Again adds to the ridiculous cost per mile comparisons.
 

Trainbike46

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They have also muddied the waters by including rolling stock in some statements on the up to date cost whereas it was never included in the original costs. I'm trying to find the info, but it was covered in Green signals.
There has been a lot of muddying of costs happening, by both opponents and proponents of HS2, whether they had any actual knowledge of what was going on or not. Lots of people in the media then made this worse by mixing up the various figures.

The decision to include the cost of the rolling stock in figures of infrastructure costs is insane, for starters.
 
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FMerrymon

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There has been a lot of muddying of costs happening, by both opponents and proponents of HS2, whether they had any actual knowledge of what was going on. Lots of people in the media then made this worse by mixing up the various figures.

The decision to include the cost of the rolling stock in figures of infrastructure costs is insane, for starters.

Constantly changing the base year doesn't help either, at least 60% inflation between initial figures in 2009 and today's prices.

You see it with the California high speed rail project too. The initial figures were in 2008 prices and now they use YOE. Claims that it is "$100bn over budget" are false, yet that is what the LA Times publishes.
 

Snow1964

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Government has published a research briefing on the High Speed (Crewe - Manchester) Bill 2024-25 on 16th April 2025

Research Briefing
Published Wednesday, 16 April, 2025
The government has reintroduced the High Speed Rail (Crewe - Manchester) Bill and intends to repurpose this for Northern Powerhouse Rail.
The High Speed Rail (Crewe – Manchester) 2024-25 (Bill 006) was reintroduced to the House of Commons on 25 July 2024. The bill was carried over from the previous Parliament, in accordance with the carry-over motion agreed by the House on 20 June 2022. Second reading took place on 20 June 2022. When the bill was reintroduced in July 2024 it was once again committed to a dedicated select committee.

The government has reintroduced the bill so that it can be repurposed for Northern Powerhouse Rail (NPR), a programme of strategic rail investments to improve connectivity between cities and towns in the north of England.


Not clear to me why a 55 page report has suddenly been issued in House of Commons library just before Easter 2025
 

BrianW

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Government has published a research briefing on the High Speed (Crewe - Manchester) Bill 2024-25 on 16th April 2025





Not clear to me why a 55 page report has suddenly been issued in House of Commons library just before Easter 2025
A good time to dig out good news? Is the term 'dead cat' appropriate, taking attention from news about 'the economy', trumpian/ realiation tariffs, China, gaza, Iran, ...
The Easter parliamentary recess gives time for MPs to glean such feedback as there may or may not be about HS2 before Heidi Alexander to have to annswer questions in the House, and while Lord hendy to come out from underhis current cloud of being found phoning while driving: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c24qv74nzq2o
Looks like as good a time as any ;)
 

Palmerston

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I may well be wrong, but I think the last Gov'ts £17bn or so that was notionally earmarked for a new Liverpool to Manchester line is still in the Spending plans. If a line was built from Crewe onwards, finishing HS2a would look odds on.
 

Snow1964

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I may well be wrong, but I think the last Gov'ts £17bn or so that was notionally earmarked for a new Liverpool to Manchester line is still in the Spending plans. If a line was built from Crewe onwards, finishing HS2a would look odds on.
It's also quite interesting when read section 3.1 etc that the committee are instructed to modify the Bill as it still has Golborne spur in. There are also still provisions for new depot in Scotland, and modifications to some West Coast stations eg Preston. Section 6.2 suggests a new link (instead of Golborne) is now intended to WCML due to commitment to serve Scotland

But other sections say the committee is not yet named (and the Bill is rolled over and live awaiting committee, rather than dead) and a new environmental impact has been done (but not yet published)

Section 3.1 also says Manchester Piccadilly will have 6 platforms, Manchester airport 4 platforms.

It also specifically mentions Sir Grahame Brady a few times regarding requesting changes (he is no longer an MP, but in Lords with life peerage), so possibly he was a hurdle that is no longer there.


It all feels like this is a working summary so it can be revived quickly when good news is required
 

takno

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Government has published a research briefing on the High Speed (Crewe - Manchester) Bill 2024-25 on 16th April 2025





Not clear to me why a 55 page report has suddenly been issued in House of Commons library just before Easter 2025
It's the middle of a pretty normal working week. Parliament is in recess, as they are for a pretty large proportion of the year, but work goes on. It was indicated in the King's Speech that this bill was going to be repurposed for NPR, and this will be part of the process. If they want to convene a committee after easter it may well be a pre-requisite.

In terms of what's in the paper, I wouldn't read too much into it - somebody will have done a bare minimum of tweaking and then parked it wherever they got to on the basis that it can all be fixed up later in the process.
 

WAO

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The usual pre-holiday reason for issuing statements/reports is to have them overlooked politically.

Here, it may be just treading water to keep the Northerners happy, with minor desk-clearing.

While I think that HS2 was fundamentally wrong-headed, now that we nearly have it to North of Litchfield, I would take it on to Crewe but I would use it to replace the WCML from around Norton Bridge (ex-Swynnerton Jn) to Crewe, perhaps as 6-track, closing the old route completely, for disposal.

I think that the twin weaknesses of HS2 are that it does not aim for Scotland and that it does not follow existing routes more closely as much could have been upgraded especially if all the Chiltern tunnelling had been envisaged. It could have been phased for affordability. HS1 managed to follow the SEML without closing it for years.

WAO
 

chris2

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Interesting piece surfaced today on the reaction of Labour in the north to the recent Reform surge at local elections and suggesting that a decision around reviving HS2 in some form beyond Handsacre could be part of the Labour response. There are quotes from Connor Naismith (MP for Crewe & Nantwich) calling for the govt to bring back HS2 to Crewe in order to inject growth into the area

“I think it’s clear that if we aren’t seen to deliver the meaningful change people are looking for they will turn to more extreme options, like Reform.

“While Reform has to be taken seriously now – they are running services in communities like Lancashire – I don’t believe they have the answers for communities like mine.

“We will only stem that tide if we actually invest in these areas, and part of that is about transport infrastructure.”

The article goes on to say

The i Paper understands a decision is expected at the Comprehensive Spending Review in June and several options remain on the table, including bringing the high-speed line as far as Crewe but not to Manchester as originally intended.

Carried by both The I paper and MSN.
 

The Ham

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Interesting piece surfaced today on the reaction of Labour in the north to the recent Reform surge at local elections and suggesting that a decision around reviving HS2 in some form beyond Handsacre could be part of the Labour response. There are quotes from Connor Naismith (MP for Crewe & Nantwich) calling for the govt to bring back HS2 to Crewe in order to inject growth into the area



The article goes on to say



Carried by both The I paper and MSN.

If projects can be killed by a thousand cuts, projects could also be completed by building a thousand sections.

OK, maybe not 1,000, but build Old Oak Common to Handsacre, build to Euston, build to Crewe, build NPR to Manchester, build to East Midlands parkway, build to...

It may not all happen in that order but in time (and it's likely to be beyond 2050) you could pick out from the rail network something which looks suspiciously like HS2 was envisioned to look like back in 2010.

It also could challenge Reform, as the southern bit of HS2 is built and so any further "HS2 spending" would be in the north and so cancelling that wouldn't be that good a look politically, especially given a refrain of the anti HS2 groups was it should have started in the north. Well Labour are now talking of making that happen (if only because the "London" bit is done) whilst Reform could still be taking about cancelling that spending.
 

Nottingham59

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I wish the media would understand and report costs of infrastructure properly. The prices they quote are not comparable. Such misreporting affects public opinion and contributed to where we are.
And I wish HS2 would report costs properly too. They still present their accounts and current and future costs at 2019 prices, with no conversion factors published to say what those numbers are in current money.
 

cle

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Getting back on track to Crewe would be a great result for now. Remember, the LGV only reached Lyon for a long time.

Look at the incremental nature of the bypasses through Nimes, Montpellier etc - it’s still doable, including the stretch into Manchester and better options for Liverpool.

Crewe has space, platforms, facilities, junctions and feed on every direction, plus rail in its blood - it’s the logical place to reach. The issues then become finite capacity north of Preston, and of course, Stockport. And the notion of having to remove X to add Y - especially for Manchester.

And it helps the Scotland journey time against flights (3h45?) - if the stopping patterns were tightened up.
 

FMerrymon

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And I wish HS2 would report costs properly too. They still present their accounts and current and future costs at 2019 prices, with no conversion factors published to say what those numbers are in current money.

Something to take into another conversation, but 2019 prices, as long as its stated as such, is fine. Infrastructure costs are usually presented in constant prices and the base year doesnt often change once construction is underway. In the article they mix a cost with a different scope, calculated at 2019 prices with the current exprlected programme cost at 2024 prices (converted by the media). You can use the OPI to get an idea of a cost in 2019 prices in current prices, but it would still not be what the outturn is.
 

AndrewE

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Crewe has space, platforms, facilities, junctions and feed on every direction, plus rail in its blood - it’s the logical place to reach. The issues then become finite capacity north of Preston, and of course, Stockport. And the notion of having to remove X to add Y - especially for Manchester.
Yes, it's a really good outlook..
but actually capacity between Crewe and Warrington, and especially Warrington and Wigan (Winwick and Euxton Junctions?) are going to be the next pinch points.
And it helps the Scotland journey time against flights (3h45?) - if the stopping patterns were tightened up.
I disagree. Much as I want rail's success to remove internal flights, without a capacity upgrade all the way to Scotland (Glasgow and Edinburgh) I fear that trying to recreate an airline-on-wheels as a primary objective will just leave us (again!) with a stripped-down internal UK service on the grounds that "London to Glasgow is more important and there are no paths for WCML stopping services. So tough **** Crewe, Lancaster, Penrith etc..."
 

FMerrymon

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I disagree. Much as I want rail's success to remove internal flights, without a capacity upgrade all the way to Scotland (Glasgow and Edinburgh) I fear that trying to recreate an airline-on-wheels as a primary objective will just leave us (again!) with a stripped-down internal UK service on the grounds that "London to Glasgow is more important and there are no paths for WCML stopping services. So tough **** Crewe, Lancaster, Penrith etc...

It needed Golborne and upgrades north of Preston before the increased hs2 service pattern north of Preston could be introduced. I think the upgrades of the line are still going ahead, but now no Golborne, so the pinch will be as you say north of Crewe.
 

Trainbike46

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A train running to Glasgow as either:

Euston-HS2ph1-HS2ph2a-Crewe-Glasgow, stopping at Crewe and current stopping pattern north of Crewe (replacing current direct services) or
Euston-Birmingham Interchange-Birmingham Curzon Street-Crewe-stops as currently-Glasgow (replacing current "via Birmingham" services)

Would still be faster than at present and have no negative impact on the stations north of Crewe. Passengers from stations south of Crewe can connect into HS2 services to scotland at Birmingham Interchange or Crewe
 

cle

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I don’t think it’s tough **** - there is probably enough for a fast Scotland (splitting still).

But instead of Preston, these run fast to Crewe, then Preston.

Then a Lancs/Lakes service - could terminate at Carlisle?

And then plenty of choice for what to do with the London - Brum - Scotland path (my vote is start at Curzon - which would still provide decent London times if needed!)

The Windermere / Barrow / Mcr-Scotland might need to be looked at to ensure the capacity is best used, full length etc.
 
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It needed Golborne and upgrades north of Preston before the increased hs2 service pattern north of Preston could be introduced. I think the upgrades of the line are still going ahead, but now no Golborne, so the pinch will be as you say north of Crewe.
It was never clear to me what would have been gained by building the Golborne Link. There are currently two trains an hour from London to Edinburgh and Glasgow on the West Coast Mainline. The plan was to have two HS2 trains an hour from London to Edinburgh and Glasgow on HS2 and the West Coast Mainline.

Perhaps the Golborne Link would have shortened journey times a bit but it would only have bypassed the section of West Coast Mainline from Crewe to Wigan. It delivered nothing for capacity constraints North of Wigan and did not enable more trains to be run each hour. The doubling of capacity was to be achieved by running the two HS2 trains an hour as double sets which would divide at Carlisle with one set for Edinburgh and one set for Glasgow. The key to delivering the the higher capacity is enabling the service to be operated with 400 metre long double set HS2 trains dividing at Carlisle.
 

AndrewE

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A train running to Glasgow as either:

Euston-HS2ph1-HS2ph2a-Crewe-Glasgow, stopping at Crewe and current stopping pattern north of Crewe (replacing current direct services) or
Euston-Birmingham Interchange-Birmingham Curzon Street-Crewe-stops as currently-Glasgow (replacing current "via Birmingham" services)

Would still be faster than at present and have no negative impact on the stations north of Crewe. Passengers from stations south of Crewe can connect into HS2 services to scotland at Birmingham Interchange or Crewe
except that the "Class 1" Euston to Glasgows (i.e. not via the W Midlands) have already had the Crewe stops removed on all but the first and last trains of the day (I think) because of the overcrowding in the southern bit of the journey. When the stops were removed the Crewe MP protested after my lobbying and was told that it was because he had complained of the overcrowding!

I have no faith in the people who call the shots (DfT, Avanti, whoever) based in London ever thinking about the transport needs of the people in the country not actually travelling north from London or vv.

It was never clear to me what would have been gained by building the Golborne Link. There are currently two trains an hour from London to Edinburgh and Glasgow on the West Coast Mainline. The plan was to have two HS2 trains an hour from London to Edinburgh and Glasgow on HS2 and the West Coast Mainline.
I think you are wrong, but even if we ignore
two trains an hour from London to Edinburgh and Glasgow"
it's not just aboout London, you know, the rest of us pay our taxes too...
 

pokemonsuper9

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except that the "Class 1" Euston to Glasgows (i.e. not via the W Midlands) have already had the Crewe stops removed on all but the first and last trains of the day (I think) because of the overcrowding in the southern bit of the journey. When the stops were removed the Crewe MP protested after my lobbying and was told that it was because he had complained of the overcrowding!
In a world with HS2 to Crewe, would 400m Euston-Crewe services purely on HS2 be an option to provide lots of capacity?
 

Trainbike46

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except that the "Class 1" Euston to Glasgows (i.e. not via the W Midlands) have already had the Crewe stops removed on all but the first and last trains of the day (I think) because of the overcrowding in the southern bit of the journey. When the stops were removed the Crewe MP protested after my lobbying and was told that it was because he had complained of the overcrowding!
I am aware of that. However, I am suggesting adding the Crewe stop back into all the glasgows, primarily for interchange purposes. Potentially, you could run 400m trains London-Crewe, with 200m continuing north of there (as 400m trains don't fit in Glasgow), or of course doing the splitting/joining thing further north (likely Carlisle), and serving both Edinburgh and Glasgow with the same 400m train from London
I have no faith in the people who call the shots (DfT, Avanti, whoever) based in London ever thinking about the transport needs of the people in the country not actually travelling north from London or vv.
This is unfortunately a very fair point.
 
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The Ham

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If we are in the situation where 400m trains are overcrowded to Crewe then we're likely into a world where more rail capacity is needed and it would be a nice problem to have.

As (assuming no East Midlands hub) there would be (say) 10tph from Euston, so even allocating 3tph to Birmingham, 3tph to Manchester that's still 4tph (potentially 2tph to Scotland, 1tph to Liverpool and 1tph to Crewe) - all assuming a fairly low useage rate from Euston.

Even assuming no trains for Manchester going via Crewe, that's over 4,200 seats an hour, compared to 2,400 if there were a comparable timetable on the WCML.

Even at 5% per year growth that's 12 years before the trains run out of capacity (assuming they all have currently).
 

Krokodil

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It was never clear to me what would have been gained by building the Golborne Link.
Avoiding the congested junctions around Crewe, plus Winsford/Weaver/Winwick.

There are currently two trains an hour from London to Edinburgh and Glasgow on the West Coast Mainline.
Correct, one fast London and one via Birmingham train.

The plan was to have two HS2 trains an hour from London to Edinburgh and Glasgow on HS2 and the West Coast Mainline.
Two very fast Londons, one Birmingham, and one London-Lancaster semi-fast.
 

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