Rishi Sunak and the Conservative Party.

[edwin_m]

Droit du seigneur to the upstart colony.

US election dates are fixed by the constitution, and ours are at the discretion of the PM.

 

[Acfb]

I think October would be reasonable but I have also seen November 14 floated by Osborne etc.

 

[nw1]

I think October would be reasonable but I have also seen November 14 floated by Osborne etc.

Osborne? Is he still in government?

Remember by mid-Nov it will be getting dark around 4.15pm, a whole hour earlier than even now. Not exactly a particularly appealing time of year to have an election, with the early darkness discouraging turnout, particularly if it's also wet and windy - which it is highly likely to be in November.

The Tories need to encourage high turnout for their own benefit, which means holding it at a relatively benign time of year in terms of daylight and weather. People wanting a change will come out and vote regardless. Lukewarm Tories might turn up and vote Tory if they feel in a good mood, but if it's typical mid-November early evening conditions of pitch black outside, pelting down with rain, and blowing a gale, they might not bother.

Canvassing also needs to take place at a time when there is a reasonable amount of daylight, no good doing it when the sun sets before 5pm.

I strongly suspect they will time it so that we are still on BST, but it will be at least 2 weeks before the US election.

 

[takno]

US election dates are fixed by the constitution, and ours are at the discretion of the PM.

Rishi's will is more powerful than some dusty foreign document, surely?

 

[brad465]

In the grand scheme of things, a couple of GW of coal isn't going to meaningfully shift the dial on generation costs. Though probably the person to blame for accelerating the closure of coal plants is Theresa May, who enshrined a Net Zero target in law.


You could have a nigh on perfect distribution system, it's not going to help when there's a weather low that covers the whole country or indeed a large chunk of Europe. https://reports.electricinsights.co.uk/q1-2021/when-the-wind-goes-gas-fills-in-the-gap/


The priority should be figuring out an economic way of storing renewable energy.

You could blame a succession of PMs and also the slow planning/procurement processes for getting power schemes off the ground:

The Large Combustion Plant directive came into effect in 2008, ordering all coal and oil power stations to have Flue Gas Desulphurisation equipment fitted, or face closure by law at the end of March 2015; this was by far the biggest cause of coal power station closures. If coal was the way to go for longer, then you could blame Gordon Brown and/or the coalition for not getting more plants to comply with this. This is reflected in the below graph from National Grid live, the biggest drop off in coal occurred during the coalition years, before May was PM:


(Graph showing annual average power generation per source: coal is the crimson line, gas orange, wind green, nuclear light blue)

Then there was the push for nuclear power in the late 00s. Blair planned for several new nuclear plants in the 3rd term, but even though he and Brown together had a few years to get them going, the coalition was easily able to scrap them. So you could blame Blair and Brown for not pursuing nuclear earlier in government, you could also blame the internal opposition in Labour to the move, you could blame the slow planning process that prevented final approval and construction being achieved in term (and any PM who didn't legislate to cut it down), and/or the coalition government for ditching all the power station plans (Nick Clegg in particular was rather vocal in opposing nuclear).

I think overall the biggest source of blame is short-termism, which is the common link in all of the above, and in May and others legislating for Net Zero (the easy part) without any plan for delivery (the hard part), and in the many short term stunts Sunak has pulled, curtailing HS2 arguably being the biggest.

 

[Gloster]

Osborne? Is he still in government?

Remember by mid-Nov it will be getting dark around 4.15pm, a whole hour earlier than even now. Not exactly a particularly appealing time of year to have an election, with the early darkness discouraging turnout, particularly if it's also wet and windy - which it is highly likely to be in November.

The Tories need to encourage high turnout for their own benefit, which means holding it at a relatively benign time of year in terms of daylight and weather. People wanting a change will come out and vote regardless. Lukewarm Tories might turn up and vote Tory if they feel in a good mood, but if it's typical mid-November early evening conditions of pitch black outside, pelting down with rain, and blowing a gale, they might not bother.

Canvassing also needs to take place at a time when there is a reasonable amount of daylight, no good doing it when the sun sets before 5pm.

I strongly suspect they will time it so that we are still on BST, but it will be at least 2 weeks before the US election.

Alternatively, holding it in winter means that the pensioners can pop in to vote while they are buying the Express in mid-morning, but people who have to work every hour to feed their kids and pay the mortgage will just want to sit down in front of the telly once they have finished work. And they won’t be the ones having lifts organised for them by the party.

 

[TheSmiths82]

I don't get the Tories obsession with the going further to the right. Yes Reform is costing them some votes, but surely moving closer to the centre ground is the only way you can win an election? It seems they are just going after 20% if the population who will vote for the right no matter what. They seem to be making all the mistakes that Labour did when Corbyn was in charge. Yes Corbyn was very popular with a lot of labour members, but he wasn't popular with the general public and that cost them two elections.

 

[Silenos]

I don't get the Tories obsession with the going further to the right. Yes Reform is costing them some votes, but surely moving closer to the centre ground is the only way you can win an election? It seems they are just going after 20% if the population who will vote for the right no matter what. They seem to be making all the mistakes that Labour did when Corbyn was in charge. Yes Corbyn was very popular with a lot of labour members, but he wasn't popular with the general public and that cost them two elections.

Just as Corbynite true believers are convinced that the general public love Corbyn and his policies just as much as they do, but were temporarily hypnotised by The Evil Media<TM> into forgetting this, so the high priests of the One True Brexit Faith know indisputably, as part of their holy revelation, that all real Britons are with them in their desire to stick it to Johnny Foreigner but are afraid to say so because of the roaming Remainer snatch squads. So it makes sense to them to offer the electorate what they know it really wants.

 

[dgl]

Alternatively, holding it in winter means that the pensioners can pop in to vote while they are buying the Express in mid-morning, but people who have to work every hour to feed their kids and pay the mortgage will just want to sit down in front of the telly once they have finished work. And they won’t be the ones having lifts organised for them by the party.

They could get the lifts but still not vote Conservative, my uncle was a member of the local Conservative club yet had stopped voting Conservative!
Imagine them giving you a lift back and whilst making small talk they mention how it would be good for the Conservative incumbent to retain his seat only for you to retort "well I'm not sure that many people voted for him, I certainly didn't!"

 

[jfollows]

I don't get the Tories obsession with the going further to the right. Yes Reform is costing them some votes, but surely moving closer to the centre ground is the only way you can win an election? It seems they are just going after 20% if the population who will vote for the right no matter what. They seem to be making all the mistakes that Labour did when Corbyn was in charge. Yes Corbyn was very popular with a lot of labour members, but he wasn't popular with the general public and that cost them two elections.

I agree, it's a death spiral, just further ensuring that they'll lose the next election significantly.
There's always an argument about what the "middle ground" is, but any party that doesn't pursue what it thinks it is ("Basildon man" or whatever) is making a huge mistake. It's the vote of teachers who live in Nuneaton who determine the next government, not the people who voted for Liz Truss.

 

[Cowley]

I agree, it's a death spiral, just further ensuring that they'll lose the next election significantly.
There's always an argument about what the "middle ground" is, but any party that doesn't pursue what it thinks it is ("Basildon man" or whatever) is making a huge mistake. It's the vote of teachers who live in Nuneaton who determine the next government, not the people who voted for Liz Truss.

This is true, and part of the evidence is right there standing in front of them in the form of Labour who have become vastly more popular by moving back towards the centre!

I keep hearing various media commentators saying that the Tory’s have learned exactly the wrong lessons over the last couple of years, but they were always going to go this way once they’d pushed out most of the more moderate voices after Johnson got in.

 

[Silenos]

but they were always going to go this way once they’d pushed out most of the more moderate voices after Johnson got in.

This. Anyone with sufficient backbone and competence to query the more extreme elements of dogma has been purged, leaving a hard core of loons and fanatics like Truss and Braverman surrounded by a gelatinous Blob (to coin a phrase) of place-men, chancers and lickspittles. Inevitably the political centre of gravity in the parliamentary party then shifts to the right (though not, perhaps, as far as the membership).

 

[317 forever]

Osborne? Is he still in government?

Remember by mid-Nov it will be getting dark around 4.15pm, a whole hour earlier than even now. Not exactly a particularly appealing time of year to have an election, with the early darkness discouraging turnout, particularly if it's also wet and windy - which it is highly likely to be in November.

The Tories need to encourage high turnout for their own benefit, which means holding it at a relatively benign time of year in terms of daylight and weather. People wanting a change will come out and vote regardless. Lukewarm Tories might turn up and vote Tory if they feel in a good mood, but if it's typical mid-November early evening conditions of pitch black outside, pelting down with rain, and blowing a gale, they might not bother.

Canvassing also needs to take place at a time when there is a reasonable amount of daylight, no good doing it when the sun sets before 5pm.

I strongly suspect they will time it so that we are still on BST, but it will be at least 2 weeks before the US election.

With that in mind, I have heard October 24th, being the final Thursday of BST, and for good measure 2 weeks before the US election.

It later got overtaken by November 14th. I even heard November 21st, heaven knows where that date came from!

 

[johnnychips]

They could get the lifts but still not vote Conservative, my uncle was a member of the local Conservative club yet had stopped voting Conservative!
Imagine them giving you a lift back and whilst making small talk they mention how it would be good for the Conservative incumbent to retain his seat only for you to retort "well I'm not sure that many people voted for him, I certainly didn't!"

Oh dear! I do remember an elderly Labour lady who used to pretend to be a Conservative so she could get a lift to the polls in a Jaguar rather than a Morris 1100.

 

[Thirteen]

Apparently November is now being ruled for security concerns so it's more likely to be October. I could envision Sunak announcing an election as soon as Parliament returns from recess.

 

[Typhoon]

This. Anyone with sufficient backbone and competence to query the more extreme elements of dogma has been purged, leaving a hard core of loons and fanatics like Truss and Braverman surrounded by a gelatinous Blob (to coin a phrase) of place-men, chancers and lickspittles. Inevitably the political centre of gravity in the parliamentary party then shifts to the right (though not, perhaps, as far as the membership).

I would say 'most' - Johnson saw to that. Unfortunately, quite a few that are decent MPs who do a good job locally are standing down, some to retirement but others because they disagree with elements of policy, or because they believe they can do more good elsewhere. I have no problem with those I disagree with provided they can put forward a coherent argument defending their case, because they have thought it through. This is because, if they see where things are coming unstuck, they have the understanding and ability to put it right. At the moment too many just go along with whatever is put forward even though it is destined to failure. We saw that with Truss and the mini-budget; fortunately Graham Brady saw the buffers ahead and told her she had to go. At the next election Truss will be a candidate, Brady will not. I am not certain who else can undertake that role.

I just hope Labour - and Starmer - are learning lessons!

 

[aavm]

You could blame a succession of PMs and also the slow planning/procurement processes for getting power schemes off the ground:

The Large Combustion Plant directive came into effect in 2008, ordering all coal and oil power stations to have Flue Gas Desulphurisation equipment fitted, or face closure by law at the end of March 2015; this was by far the biggest cause of coal power station closures. If coal was the way to go for longer, then you could blame Gordon Brown and/or the coalition for not getting more plants to comply with this. This is reflected in the below graph from National Grid live, the biggest drop off in coal occurred during the coalition years, before May was PM:

View attachment 152547
(Graph showing annual average power generation per source: coal is the crimson line, gas orange, wind green, nuclear light blue)

Then there was the push for nuclear power in the late 00s. Blair planned for several new nuclear plants in the 3rd term, but even though he and Brown together had a few years to get them going, the coalition was easily able to scrap them. So you could blame Blair and Brown for not pursuing nuclear earlier in government, you could also blame the internal opposition in Labour to the move, you could blame the slow planning process that prevented final approval and construction being achieved in term (and any PM who didn't legislate to cut it down), and/or the coalition government for ditching all the power station plans (Nick Clegg in particular was rather vocal in opposing nuclear).

I think overall the biggest source of blame is short-termism, which is the common link in all of the above, and in May and others legislating for Net Zero (the easy part) without any plan for delivery (the hard part), and in the many short term stunts Sunak has pulled, curtailing HS2 arguably being the biggest.

Thanks for that. Didnt realise the switch from coal started so long ago. Just a shame the stations weren't all mothballed instead of closed. The US and Canada didn't have the cost of living crisis we did.

 

[SteveP29]

Good. There is no justification for a cut in tax income. It is essentially just a wrecking ball, being done so that when the next government is in power and needs to reverse the move they can score some political points.

An increase in personal allowance to take more of the lower paid out of tax would be a far better spend.

I'd prefer the allowance to reduce, in order for indirect taxes (ie VAT) to be reduced

 

[JamesT]

Thanks for that. Didnt realise the switch from coal started so long ago. Just a shame the stations weren't all mothballed instead of closed. The US and Canada didn't have the cost of living crisis we did.

The US went big on fracking, so are a net exporter of oil and gas which insulates them from swings in world prices.
They are essentially following the same path the UK did earlier, electricity production from coal has dropped from 51% in 2001 to under 20% with most of that being replaced by gas power stations (now around 40% of capacity).
Coal is a dead-end, how much would it cost to maintain mothballed plants ready to be used if the costs of other methods spike?

 

[ainsworth74]

Thanks for that. Didnt realise the switch from coal started so long ago. Just a shame the stations weren't all mothballed instead of closed.

That would have required some strategic thinking including planning for resilience in a critical industry as mothballed plants which are intended to be spun up in a reasonable time frame would still incur significant maintenance costs whilst producing nothing in return. That sort of spending money to ensure resilience isn't something that we do here. Doesn't look good on the spreadsheets, particularly HM Treasury or shareholder (or both) spreadsheets.

 

[Snow1964]

They are probably worried that if it clashes with the US election (or should that be the other way round) no one will notice. The UK result will appear on page 94 of all the world’s paper below a report of the results from Racoon Droppings, Alabama, and say that Congressman Starter has defeated Congressman Sunk in an election in LondonTown. Politicians want to be in the headlines.

Maybe it's just me, but the thought of two old people on a different continent trying to get a second term in a job starting January 2025 doesn't seem like much of a reason not to have a November election.

 

[najaB]

Maybe it's just me, but the thought of two old people on a different continent trying to get a second term in a job starting January 2025 doesn't seem like much of a reason not to have a November election.

As noted above, the intelligence services would rather not have the massive job of defending two elections from interference by the Chinese, Russians, Iranians, and co. the the same time.

 

[nw1]

Maybe it's just me, but the thought of two old people on a different continent trying to get a second term in a job starting January 2025 doesn't seem like much of a reason not to have a November election.

Perhaps but November is way too long to wait, so I'd say it's a good thing if the US election forces our election to be at a sane time of year.

 

[Busaholic]

US election dates are fixed by the constitution, and ours are at the discretion of the PM.

Only up to a point, Lord Copper.

Apparently November is now being ruled for security concerns so it's more likely to be October. I could envision Sunak announcing an election as soon as Parliament returns from recess.

More likely a few days after the Budget 'giveaways.'

 

[3141]

Alternatively, holding it in winter means that the pensioners can pop in to vote while they are buying the Express in mid-morning, but people who have to work every hour to feed their kids and pay the mortgage will just want to sit down in front of the telly once they have finished work. And they won’t be the ones having lifts organised for them by the party.

That's a fairly extreme piece of stereotyping. All pensioners vote Conservative. Pensioners aren't among those who find it hard to make ends meet. It's potentially insulting to pensioners who might have different view from those you've ascribed to them. Are you trying to brainwash people into seeing things your way?

 

[Gloster]

That's a fairly extreme piece of stereotyping. All pensioners vote Conservative. Pensioners aren't among those who find it hard to make ends meet. It's potentially insulting to pensioners who might have different view from those you've ascribed to them. Are you trying to brainwash people into seeing things your way?

No. I was being satirical to point out that the government will time the election to suit itself, whatever other logic ought to apply. I thought the reference to the Express would highlight that.

 

[Busaholic]

That's a fairly extreme piece of stereotyping. All pensioners vote Conservative. Pensioners aren't among those who find it hard to make ends meet. It's potentially insulting to pensioners who might have different view from those you've ascribed to them. Are you trying to brainwash people into seeing things your way?

I wouldn't line my parrot crap tray with the Express, nor would I vote Conservative under any circumstances, and I'm 75.

 

[Enthusiast]

Alternatively, holding it in winter means that the pensioners can pop in to vote while they are buying the Express in mid-morning, but people who have to work every hour to feed their kids and pay the mortgage will just want to sit down in front of the telly once they have finished work. And they won’t be the ones having lifts organised for them by the party.

Of course they would be equally cream crackered whenever the election was held. So they could always apply for a postal vote - if they could tear themselves away from the telly for five minutes.

 

[brad465]

The tax rate setup Hunt is deploying suggests planning for a May election, although so far it's not been working well for them. The NI tax cut occurring in January, not April as is normal, has the look of trying to get workers to see pay check improvements before the election. Then the budget is around 2-3 weeks before it normally occurs in March, and if they want a May election the 6 week dissolution of Parliament deadline is the end of the month, so they are potentially trying to provide time to gauge public reaction to whatever is announced in the budget. The NI tax cut however hasn't helped the government so far, suggesting they might hold it out longer if any further cuts in March are just as lame.

 

[Gloster]

As I have said before, I think that at least some of the talk about October or November is misdirection by the Conservatives. Get the opposition parties to take their feet of the pedal and go for a slow build of momentum (small ‘m’), and then hit them with a snap election after a throwaway budget. It might even be earlier than May: there are almost certainly more unpleasant things to come out in a number of inquiries, including Covid and the sub-postmasters ones, due in the summer.