Rishi Sunak and the Conservative Party.

[najaB]

Based on what I've read regarding Hester's comments in regard to Diane Abbott, I'm struggling to see any actual racism, or misogyny. He didn't say he hates Diane Abbott because she's black, or because she's a women. Nor did he say he hates black women, or that there's anything wrong with belonging to either group. In my opinion, the worst thing he said is that Diane Abbot should be shot, which is at best deeply unpleasant and highly inappropriate, especially in the current climate.

Disagree. Let's change the target of the statement: "Whenever I see a Honda Civic, it makes me hate all Japanese cars. All Honda Civics should be sent to the crusher."

How can that be taken as anything other than expressing hatred for Honda Civics specifically, and all Japanese cars generally?

 

[DynamicSpirit]

How can that be taken as anything other than expressing hatred for Honda Civics specifically, and all Japanese cars generally?

A better example might be, someone with left-wing views saying that looking at Nigel Farage made you want to hate all white men, and Nigel Farage should be shot. I'm pretty sure that, as a white man, I would have no trouble distinguishing that the person saying that was probably attacking Nigel Farage specifically and not white men in general, and that, most likely, it was utterly awful and unacceptable banter rather than anti-white racist intent. The only exception would be, if that person had a known history of displaying actual hatred towards white men - in that case I probably would presume a racist intent.

I'm therefore inclined to agree with @DustyBin

 

[DustyBin]

Disagree. Let's change the target of the statement: "Whenever I see a Honda Civic, it makes me hate all Japanese cars. All Honda Civics should be sent to the crusher."

How can that be taken as anything other than expressing hatred for Honda Civics specifically, and all Japanese cars generally?

To make it analogous, the statement would need to be:

"Whenever I see my friend's Honda Civic, it makes me want to hate all Honda Civics, which I don't. My friend's Honda Civic should be sent to the crusher".

It's pretty clear from the above that I dislike my friend's Honda Civic and that in my opinion it gives Honda Civics a bad name. The issue isn't that it's a Honda Civic, it's that I don't like something about it. Maybe it has a rubbish sounding exhaust, or beige paint, or some other characteristic I find disagreeable....

This is what Hester is alleged to have actually said:

“It’s like trying not to be racist, but you see Diane Abbott on the TV, and you’re just like, you just want to hate all Black women because she’s there, and I don’t hate all Black women at all, but I think she should be shot.”

It's a stupid and unpleasant thing to say, but again it falls short of the threshold for racism and/or misogyny in my opinion. However I appreciate other people may disagree.

 

[Busaholic]

Disagree. Let's change the target of the statement: "Whenever I see a Honda Civic, it makes me hate all Japanese cars. All Honda Civics should be sent to the crusher."

How can that be taken as anything other than expressing hatred for Honda Civics specifically, and all Japanese cars generally?

A Tory fringe group chairman whose name I don't recall said on the 'World At One' radio programme the other day that if the MP in question had been female and Jewish, and the latter word was substituted for the word 'black', then there would have been an outcry from the top at the very start. If the person using the language had been a Labour Party donor, then the outrage expressed, even if not felt, by Sunak would have known no bounds and calls on Starmer to resign immediately and the money repaid would have come from at least four daily newspapers, GB News, Talk TV etc etc. I totally agree with him and it's good to know there are still a few Tories who have some scruples left.

 

[nw1]

A bit of another matter but still Tory related. (mods feel free to move if it's OT).

Was just looking at a few results from the 2015 election and it's staggering, now, to see some of the huge majorities enjoyed by Tory MPs in certain parts of London and the SE, compared to now.

Somewhere like Richmond Park must surely be the prime example. A vast Tory majority of more than 20,000 in 2015, now fairly comfortably Lib Dem and unlikely to return to the Tories anytime soon.

It does make you wonder whether Cameron slipped up massively (from a personal perspective) in agreeing to put the Brexit referendum in the manifesto, and that they could have clung to power for as long as they have actually done (until a theoretical May 2025 election, perhaps, when people probably would have tired of them) by keeping hold of the votes of all those affluent but liberal London and SE residents that helped them win in 2015, together with rural votes in areas that would never vote for anything other than Tory in a million years.

I have friends who I had a few arguments with in 2015 regarding their support for Cameron and the Tories. Just two years later, they were put off the Tories for life and we were united in our dislike of current (2017) Tory politics!

 

[simonw]

A bit of another matter but still Tory related. (mods feel free to move if it's OT).

Was just looking at a few results from the 2015 election and it's staggering, now, to see some of the huge majorities enjoyed by Tory MPs in certain parts of London and the SE, compared to now.

Somewhere like Richmond Park must surely be the prime example. A vast Tory majority of more than 20,000 in 2015, now fairly comfortably Lib Dem and unlikely to return to the Tories anytime soon.

It does make you wonder whether Cameron slipped up massively (from a personal perspective) in agreeing to put the Brexit referendum in the manifesto, and that they could have clung to power for as long as they have actually done (until a theoretical May 2025 election, perhaps, when people probably would have tired of them) by keeping hold of the votes of all those affluent but liberal London and SE residents that helped them win in 2015, together with rural votes in areas that would never vote for anything other than Tory in a million years.

I have friends who I had a few arguments with in 2015 regarding their support for Cameron and the Tories. Just two years later, they were put off the Tories for life and we were united in our dislike of current (2017) Tory politics!

I've heard it said that Cameron put it in the manifesto fully expecting to be in another coalition with the lib dems and giving up the referendum in return for another coalition. I'm not sure how this squares with the Tories deliberately targeting libdem seats.

 

[takno]

I've heard it said that Cameron put it in the manifesto fully expecting to be in another coalition with the lib dems and giving up the referendum in return for another coalition. I'm not sure how this squares with the Tories deliberately targeting libdem seats.

At the end of the day Cameron was an idiot who loved taking bets without any analysis of the situation at all. He had a richly-undeserved reputation for basic competence, but he decided to stake both that and the fundamental future of the county on lucky number 37 because he had a good feeling.

Since he knew fine well that he was an utter sham he could hardly be expected to realise that people would do something as stupid as vote him into a majority government

 

[edwin_m]

I've heard it said that Cameron put it in the manifesto fully expecting to be in another coalition with the lib dems and giving up the referendum in return for another coalition. I'm not sure how this squares with the Tories deliberately targeting libdem seats.

My theory is the left and the right hand. While Cameron was hoping for LibDems to solve his problem, Osborne was working on destroying them (as well as imposing austerity that annoyed people enough to vote for Brexit simply because Cameron opposed it). I'm sure I read Osborne was opposed to having the referendum - maybe had an idea which way things might go?

 

[nw1]

At the end of the day Cameron was an idiot who loved taking bets without any analysis of the situation at all. He had a richly-undeserved reputation for basic competence, but he decided to stake both that and the fundamental future of the county on lucky number 37 because he had a good feeling.

Since he knew fine well that he was an utter sham he could hardly be expected to realise that people would do something as stupid as vote him into a majority government

The majority government was I think a surprise for most. Just one person I know predicted that.

It was an unpredictable election but my own prediction was probably another coalition, with Cameron still as PM, but with the Tories losing some seats to Labour.
The big surprises compared to the opinion polls were Labour failing to pick up a number of seats (I remember Nuneaton being suggested as a likely Labour gain) plus, most critically of all, many Tory gains off the Lib Dems in the SW. It was the SW gains, more than anything else, "wot won it" for the Tories.

Back to now, and the Daily Mail seems to be suggesting (saw a physical copy) that the Tories have a plot to replace Sunak with Mordaunt, before the election. Any thoughts on this?

 

[dosxuk]

Back to now, and the Daily Mail seems to be suggesting (saw a physical copy) that the Tories have a plot to replace Sunak with Mordaunt, before the election. Any thoughts on this?

The right wing of the party have fallen into the trap (again) of thinking the reason they're doing so badly in the polls is solely because people don't like Sunak.

If they read below the headlines from the polling companies, they'd see the other questions and the responses that show the public has fallen out of love with the wider party, not just the leader. But they don't, so expect another load of Tory infighting while they attempt to get their latest chosen leader in place in order to see off the threat from Reform.

It's actually quite amusing seeing the Tory faithful convincing themselves that the polls are suggesting it will be a hung parliament at the next election, and that if they just take a little step further to the right, they'll get the Reform votes and grab the overall win. Maths obviously would differently in the sunlit uplands.

 

[telstarbox]

I don't think Sunak is hugely popular but they really tanked in the polls during the Liz Truss "era" and haven't recovered from that. So in a way the party leader from now to the election isn't a critical factor.

 

[Typhoon]

My theory is the left and the right hand. While Cameron was hoping for LibDems to solve his problem, Osborne was working on destroying them (as well as imposing austerity that annoyed people enough to vote for Brexit simply because Cameron opposed it). I'm sure I read Osborne was opposed to having the referendum - maybe had an idea which way things might go?

To me, Cameron was all image, 'Call Me Dave'. He buffed up well as the saying goes, getting rid of the 'Nasty Party' image of his predecessors (provided you didn't look too hard). He got by because Osborne was effective and very determined (not that I agree with what he did) and it was sold well (partly due to the media). Clegg got almost nothing out of the Coalition, seemingly caving in on many election promises so suffered as a result. As stated by @nw1 in #2709, they lost most of their seats to the Conservatives (not helped by the number of their 'big beasts' who did not stand - Campbell, Beith, Bruce, Foster - who might have been able to command sufficient personal votes to hang on).

Interestingly Labour picked up more seats from the Conservatives than they lost to them (10 against 8), however it was the big losses in Scotland to SNP that hit the headlines. As has happened again with the 'Red Wall' seats, Labour had taken support in what were once its heartlands for granted. They also had the wrong leader!

 

[DustyBin]

Back to now, and the Daily Mail seems to be suggesting (saw a physical copy) that the Tories have a plot to replace Sunak with Mordaunt, before the election. Any thoughts on this?

You bought it didn’t you, go on admit it!

In my opinion Mordaunt should have replaced Johnson, and if she had the Tories (and probably the country) would be in a much better place. Instead they chose the self harm option(s), and in the process managed to alienate even loyal voters like myself. I’ve zero sympathy for their plight at this point, in fact I’m rather annoyed!

There’s no point replacing Sunak before the election in my opinion, let him preside over the inevitable drubbing and then install Mordaunt as leader of the opposition where she can rebuild from the ground up.

 

[317 forever]

Although Rishi has often stated his working assumption of the General Election being in the 2nd half of the year, I have not heard him mentioning it necessarily being the Autumn.

If he fears enough MPs ganging up against him and trying to arrange a coup following likely substantial defeats in the local elections, I think he could cut and run, potentially calling the General Election for July 4th or 11th.

 

[edwin_m]

Back to now, and the Daily Mail seems to be suggesting (saw a physical copy) that the Tories have a plot to replace Sunak with Mordaunt, before the election. Any thoughts on this?

Any new leader may give a bit of a boost in the polls because some people will give them a chance or think they may be able to sort out some of the mess. Mordaunt being relatively moderate and not having conspicuously messed anything up recently (and she can hold a sword) would probably do that slightly better than any of the likely alternatives. However, I read that she is highly likely to lose her seat at the forthcoming election, which wouldn't be a good look for a PM. Her being PM would make it more likely because her higher profile would lead more people to vote tactically in the hope of claiming a prominent scalp.

 

[Nicholas Lewis]

Any new leader may give a bit of a boost in the polls because some people will give them a chance or think they may be able to sort out some of the mess. Mordaunt being relatively moderate and not having conspicuously messed anything up recently (and she can hold a sword) would probably do that slightly better than any of the likely alternatives. However, I read that she is highly likely to lose her seat at the forthcoming election, which wouldn't be a good look for a PM. Her being PM would make it more likely because her higher profile would lead more people to vote tactically in the hope of claiming a prominent scalp.

Shes reasonably smart and won't want five minutes of fame to then be scapegoated and not have a chance to rebuild the party so don't see her taking the opportunity if its offered.

 

[Noddy]

Electoral calculus have Penny Mordaunts seat as 76% likely to go to Labour.

New Seat Details - Portsmouth North

 

[Gloster]

The various right of centre groups probably reckon that Mordaunt will have enough support to lead the party as a compromise, but not enough to prevent her being jettisoned as soon as they reckon someone more to their taste, i.e. completely barking, has a chance to win. Even though she is a bit of a trimmer, she is much too much of a leftie for them to put up with longer than is expedient.

 

[Nicholas Lewis]

The various right of centre groups probably reckon that Mordaunt will have enough support to lead the party as a compromise, but not enough to prevent her being jettisoned as soon as they reckon someone more to their taste, i.e. completely barking, has a chance to win. Even though she is a bit of a trimmer, she is much too much of a leftie for them to put up with longer than is expedient.

Indeed thats why i can't see it. More likely a smoking gun to flush out someone they really want.

 

[Typhoon]

Any new leader may give a bit of a boost in the polls because some people will give them a chance or think they may be able to sort out some of the mess. Mordaunt being relatively moderate and not having conspicuously messed anything up recently (and she can hold a sword) would probably do that slightly better than any of the likely alternatives. However, I read that she is highly likely to lose her seat at the forthcoming election, which wouldn't be a good look for a PM. Her being PM would make it more likely because her higher profile would lead more people to vote tactically in the hope of claiming a prominent scalp.

Even if she were too hang on, she would have to spend time in her constituency garnering votes rather than touring the country.

I reckon the ideal situation for a certain segment of the party would be that she does well enough to save the party from complete collapse but loses her seat. No need for her to be booted out, but that segment will just claim that moderation didn't work, its time to move to the right!

 

[SteveP29]

I'll probably regret posting this, but hear me out....

Based on what I've read regarding Hester's comments in regard to Diane Abbott, I'm struggling to see any actual racism, or misogyny. He didn't say he hates Diane Abbott because she's black, or because she's a women. Nor did he say he hates black women, or that there's anything wrong with belonging to either group. In my opinion, the worst thing he said is that Diane Abbot should be shot, which is at best deeply unpleasant and highly inappropriate, especially in the current climate.

He strikes me as a bit of a cringe-worthy David Brent type character with a "controversial" sense of humour, who probably also considers himself to be fighting back against a "PC gone mad" culture that does more harm than good in his eyes (rightly or wrongly). That doesn't make him a racist or misogynist, just a bit of a prat.

To be clear, I'm not defending Hester here as he clearly lacks self awareness and has created his own problems through comments which were without doubt inappropriate. I also appreciate that just because someone doesn't mean to offend, others can't be offended. However, I do get the sense that the current pile-on is the result of politically motivated feigned outrage more than anything....

If he wasn't being racist, why did he mention black?
He could have said 'make me hate all women' instead
That would of course have made it mysogynistic/ sexist.
So, instead he says, make me hate all blacks
Which would have made him racist.

Best way to avoid that is not to say it in the first place, but, because he may actually be a racist mysogynist, he did say it

 

[uglymonkey]

He probably think and says all that stuff amongst his family and in private, but just forgot ( could be on purpose to make a "scene") once in public?

 

[SteveM70]

I suspect he's just one of those people who has a lot of money, runs an autocratic business where he's surrounded by people in awe of / in thrall to him so he never hears "no", and thinks its still the 1970s

 

[Magdalia]

Back to now, and the Daily Mail seems to be suggesting (saw a physical copy) that the Tories have a plot to replace Sunak with Mordaunt, before the election. Any thoughts on this?

My thought are to go back to the final round of MPs voting in the 2022 leadership election.

Sunak 137
Truss 113
Mordaunt 105

So near yet so far.

 

[Typhoon]

It looks like the UK has its answer to 'Suicide Squad'.

A powerful group of Right-wing Tory MPs are preparing their own independent election manifesto as Rishi Sunak battles to keep his fractured party together.

The New Conservatives will publish a series of policy ideas on issues such as tax, immigration, education and online safety to ‘influence’ the main Tory election manifesto.

Miriam Cates, the group’s co-chair, told The Mail on Sunday that the MPs would ‘produce a few manifesto ideas and then hand them to the party’, adding: ‘It is not about challenging current policy; it’s about feeding into new policy.’

The group, which also includes Devizes MP Danny Kruger, has led calls in the party for more true-blue policies to stem the increasing haemorrhage of support to Labour over recent months.

https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/othe...1&cvid=b7a38332d4724b31a21187c043304231&ei=15

So the answer to haemorrhaging support to a party which is left of centre (even if only slightly, under Starmer) is to move further to the right? I am sure that there is some logic here but it defeats me. We can't stand divided parties! Why do they think they had an easy ride in the 2010s, why did Thatcher not face more opposition in her early years?

There is no problem with trying to influence policy but you don't use the megaphone that is the Daily Mail to do so. Many of the 'old guard' in the House must dread the latest media disclosures of a morning. Whatever the result of the election, in my opinion we need a strong Conservative representation in Parliament to prevent Labour drifting, Momentum haven't gone away, they have just stalled.

(Is there a 'Daily Mail Dictionary'? My understanding was that 'powerful' meant having a strong effect or control; most of them are unknowns - or known for the wrong reasons - and one of the co-chairs can't even control his dog!)

 

[DustyBin]

If he wasn't being racist, why did he mention black?
He could have said 'make me hate all women' instead
That would of course have made it mysogynistic/ sexist.
So, instead he says, make me hate all blacks
Which would have made him racist.

Best way to avoid that is not to say it in the first place, but, because he may actually be a racist mysogynist, he did say it

I can’t really add much to my original post; if you see the situation differently we’ll have to agree to disagree. Whilst Hester’s comments were undoubtably inappropriate, I just can’t see any actual racism (or mysogyny).

He probably think and says all that stuff amongst his family and in private, but just forgot ( could be on purpose to make a "scene") once in public?

Seemingly he comes out with this sort of stuff on a regular basis, quite deliberately. What he doesn’t do (based on what I’ve read) is discriminate against, or use derogatory language towards people based on their skin colour or ethnicity.

I’ll repeat again though: the guy sounds like a complete prat.

 

[jfollows]

I'm honestly not interested in whether Hester was "racist" or "misogynistic" or other words describing what he said; some people like to label things in certain ways but I'm not bothered.

What I know is that I don't like Diane Abbott but I hope that I wouldn't have made the comments about her that Hester did. I'd be embarrassed if I had done. If I had been in his company when he made the comments, I would have felt very awkward because they're unacceptable things to say in my view. As a recipient of money from him I would ask myself if I felt it appropriate to further his objectives because essentially he's trying to buy his way into power, admittedly in an indirect and obscure way, but the purpose of his money is to make it more likely that the current and future governments will do things he wants them to do. So I don't think it appropriate to accept money from him, but that's me, and my moral standards are clearly different from Rishi Sunak's and the Conservative Party.

Back to now, and the Daily Mail seems to be suggesting (saw a physical copy) that the Tories have a plot to replace Sunak with Mordaunt, before the election. Any thoughts on this?

Being put about by supporters of Kemi Badenoch, Suella Braverman and Simon Clarke "after a three bottle lunch with journalists" in order to discredit her and damage her chances against the people they support before the starting gun has been fired, essentially to damage her prospects by reducing the likely vote Mordaunt will otherwise get from the centre of the party.
The Conservative party is turning in on itself now.
All of a sudden the reports are all about the "realisation" that they're going to lose the next election, even though normal people realised that Liz Truss doomed them if Boris Johnson hadn't done so already. I mean, I'm sure I said "it's 1997 all over again" at least a year ago.

Penny Mordaunt’s Tory leadership rivals blamed for coup plot rumours

Allies of Commons leader say other future candidates for top job are trying to make her look disloyal

www.theguardian.com

Penny Mordaunt’s Tory leadership rivals blamed for coup plot rumours​

Allies of Commons leader say other future candidates for top job are trying to make her look disloyal

Pippa Crerar and Kiran Stacey
Mon 18 Mar 2024 18.03 GMT

Penny Mordaunt’s rivals in a future Conservative leadership contest have been blamed for briefing coup rumours meant to ruin her chances of eventually taking over from Rishi Sunak, the Guardian has been told.
The Commons leader, who came a close third in the leadership contest won by Liz Truss in 2022, has in recent days been at the centre of speculation over an alleged plot to try to oust the prime minister to avert a general election disaster for the Conservatives.

But her allies insisted on Monday that it was “nonsense” that she had been talking to Tory rightwingers as part of any plot. Everyone knows that Penny’s rivals are just trying to stir up trouble,” one supporter said.
“She’s loyal to Rishi and doesn’t want to add legitimacy to all this fluff by publicly denying the claims.”
On a visit to the Midlands on Monday, Sunak said he was “not interested in Westminster politics” and insisted that his party was “united” as he tried to quell speculation that he could become the latest Tory leader to lose his grip on power.
Those loyal to Sunak say they do not believe Mordaunt herself is the source of rumours that she might stand against him.
“I don’t know who is putting it about but I don’t think it is her,” said one supportive cabinet minister. “My best guess is those who are likely to stand against her at a leadership election in the future are trying to spoil her candidacy now by making her look disloyal.”
Senior figures from across the party came to Mordaunt’s defence, with one former cabinet minister from the Boris Johnson era suggesting that the speculation was a result of a “three-bottle lunch” between supporters of her rivals and members of the press.

Rishi Sunak dismissed the reports during a visit to Coventry.
The reports about a potential Mordaunt coronation emerged on Friday evening in the Daily Mail and Daily Telegraph, which said a meeting had taken place between leading figures on the Tory right and prominent supporters of Mordaunt’s last leadership bid.


The former cabinet minister said: “There’s a lot of unhappiness in the party towards Rishi and the No 10 operation. But we don’t know whether there briefing is coming from a 12-year-old junior spad in a Whitehall department or a cabinet minister.”
One minister from the centre of the party said the claims were “pretty unfair” to Mordaunt, who they said had been doing the constituency party dinner circuit for years.
A senior party figure on the One Nation wing said Mordaunt was being “used” by supporters of her rightwing rivals for the Tory crown – including Kemi Badenoch, Suella Braverman and Simon Clarke – to launch a leadership contest.
“They’re using her to try to take over from Rishi. None of the rightwingers can get the centre of the party onboard. Even if there’s a coronation, Penny still loses the election and it takes her out of play for the longer term,” the MP said.
A leading rightwing MP said it was unlikely their colleagues would back Mordaunt, even as a compromise candidate, because of her liberal position on social issues such as trans rights. “I don’t sense any appetite for trouble-making though,” they said. “I believe this is just Penny’s rivals trying to do her down.”

While Sunak’s supporters have dismissed the idea that electing a fourth party leader within a single parliament could revive the party’s fortunes, many remain unhappy about the way in which his Downing Street operation has worked in recent weeks.
Even the prime minister’s allies say he was slow to remove the whip from the former deputy chair Lee Anderson for his comments about the London mayor, Sadiq Khan, and then indecisive once more over what to do about the Tory donor Frank Hester.
Many say they are frustrated by Downing Street’s inability to stick to a single message.
“The national insurance cuts in the budget had the potential to cut through,” said the cabinet minister. “But it won’t do that if we don’t keep talking about it. Just because we haven’t seen an eight-point narrowing in the polls in the week after the budget doesn’t mean we should stop talking about it.”
Allies say Sunak has been frustrated by the latest bout of infighting and he has no intention of calling an early election to fend it off, as has been suggested by some in the party. “The plan is still to do it in the last quarter of the year,” said one.

 

[dosxuk]

Looks like the events of the last week or so have made an impact on the polls, with Redfield Wilton reporting:

LAB 47% (+5)
CON 21% (-3)
REF 14% (-)​

LDEM 8% (-4)​

GRN 6% (+1)​

Sticking those numbers into Electoral Calculus gives seats of:

LAB 534 (+337)​

LDEM 41 (+33)​

CON 34 (-342)
SNP 18 (-30)​

GRN 2 (+1)​

REF 0 (-)​

 

[Class15]

Looks like the events of the last week or so have made an impact on the polls, with Redfield Wilton reporting:

LAB 47% (+5)​

CON 21% (-3)​

REF 14% (-)​

LDEM 8% (-4)​

GRN 6% (+1)​

Sticking those numbers into Electoral Calculus gives seats of:

LAB 534 (+337)​

LDEM 41 (+33)​

CON 34 (-342)​

SNP 18 (-30)​

GRN 2 (+1)​

REF 0 (-)​

Wow, the Tories aren’t even second. That’s quite something

 

[ainsworth74]

Looks like the events of the last week or so have made an impact on the polls, with Redfield Wilton reporting:

LAB 47% (+5)​

CON 21% (-3)​

REF 14% (-)​

LDEM 8% (-4)​

GRN 6% (+1)​

Sticking those numbers into Electoral Calculus gives seats of:

LAB 534 (+337)​

LDEM 41 (+33)​

CON 34 (-342)​

SNP 18 (-30)​

GRN 2 (+1)​

REF 0 (-)​

Of course that won't be what the actual seat numbers look like after an election. But it certainly is funny