No worries, the brevity of my earlier posts probably contributed to the misunderstanding.
I've been trying to get a handle on this whole Glasgow-Edinburgh HSR concept; an understanding of the economic case; the vision I suppose. I do like the idea of a sub 30 minute journey time as I can see how bringing the two cities closer together would bring economic benefits for both. I would like to be confident that whatever is built stacks up economically bearing in mind the huge capital cost, but it's difficult to make a judgement because there is uncertainty about whether it will eventually connect to a cross-border HSR line.
Scottish High Speed Rail
Costs
If we assume the costs are around £1.5Bn £2Bn spread over 8 years (2016 2024) we are looking at £250M a year or so capital investment over the period. At present the Scottish Government spend in the region of £500M a year on the Scotrail franchise and £300M a year on Rail Infrastructure investment. They also spend around £700M a year on roads of which £300M a year goes on the Forth Replacement Crossing. Even with other major trunk road projects (AWPR, A9 dualling, M8 improvements) there should be opportunities within these two budgets to cover this initial HSR phase without all other road/rail projects being cancelled.
Benefits
Firstly obviously Scottish HSR provides the extra services planned under the initial EGIP programme only with even faster journey times. The journey time is likely to be more like 25 minutes than the 35 minutes planned under EGIP. This time would come down even further in future phases once dedicated city centre stations and routes were built.
Under EGIP the extra non-stop services were to be 2tph supplemented by the existing stoppers. My suspicion would be to be seen as a viable turn up and go replacement for the Falkirk services there would have to be at least a 3tph frequency on the new HS line as 2tph would be seen as a definite step backwards. So lets assume a 3tph 25 minute service from Glasgow Central Edinburgh Waverley.
This generates significant journey time savings for all Edinburgh Glasgow travellers and further benefits for travellers from Inverclyde, Renfrewshire, Ayrshire and South Glasgow as the new services provide a much more convenient connection at Central than crossing Glasgow for the Falkirk High service or using the semi fast Shotts / Carstairs services.
It also obviously provides significant additional capacity for travellers from Falkirk, Croy, Polmont, Linlithgow on the existing 4tph service to Queen St. This service is likely to remain 4tph but there may well be additional Linlithgow and Croy stops. It also allows the possibility of new stops in the service allowing direct Lenzie Edinburgh services and Edinburgh Park Glasgow QS via Falkirk services.
The Dalmeny curve will be required to allow space for the new HS services on the south lines at Haymarket . This will divert some Glasgow QS Edinburgh via Falkirk services onto the north lines giving an additional stop at Edinburgh Gateway with access to Edinburgh Airport and RBS HQ via the tram. The curve will also make timetabling of stops (probably in the Dunblane service) at the fully funded new station at Winchburgh (by housing developers) much easier to timetable.
Edinburgh and Glasgow to Manchester and London services will also be speeded up and made more reliable, particularly the Glasgow trains which will be completely separated from the suburban network with the existing Glasgow Central Rutherglen line becoming HS trains only and Rutherglen Carstairs becoming suburban only.
The cross border services would save 10 15 minutes on current journey times helping bring post HS2 London Edinburgh Glasgow journey times down towards the magic 3 hour mark from the currently predicted 3.38.
The removal of 1-2tph of Glasgow Manchester and Glasgow London trains from the Lanarkshire network between Rutherglen and Carstairs also creates capacity. This is particularly the case at Motherwell but also places like Newton where capacity and timetabling bottlenecks restrict service speed and flexibility. This should make the development of new / improved services in this area easier. All sorts of recasts are possible with options involving Whifflet trains being extended, new services to Ravenscraig development site, faster Lanark trains which dont go via Hamilton, Shotts line trains becoming skip stop instead of fast slow and diverted to the Argyle line etc.
I also suspect the Scottish Government would be pleased to kill off HS2s rather daft current plan to split HS London Scotland services at Carstairs. If the high speed spur connected with the WCML south of Carstairs (which helps avoid interaction with local services) then if a split was to be used it would have to happen at the much more sensible location of Carlisle.
Finally the really important part of the project is it gets HS rail up and running in Scotland on the same timescale as England. Instead of being seen by international investors as a backwater that may get investment 30 years down the line they can see that high speed routes are already under construction in Scotland. Whichever route is subsequently chosen to connect with HS2 the fact there is a pre existing route to connect to leaves a gap to be filled rather than an extension to nowhere. It also emphasises the strategic national nature of the remaining line to be built which should then be funded from the National UK pot not from SG funds...
