Scotland post-Brexit - what happens next?

[berneyarms]

Why not? Just because a Common Travel Area was agreed for the United Kingdom and the Republic of Ireland on break up a hundred years ago does not mean the same needs to apply for Scotland when it goes its own way.

As I said, it would not be in any government's interests ultimately to do something like that.

Governments end up being practical about these things.

But I suspect that's for a different thread than the Caledonian Sleeper.

 

[nickswift99]

Most of the incoming Long Haul tourist market to Scotland are making the visit as a secondary location to London either as part of a UK visit or European Tour.
That is a huge proportion of the sleeper passengers. If Scotland was to become independent tourism would become an absolutely vital income stream.


Why? Assuming Scotland remains in a common travel area, there would be no difference to living in Northern Ireland and working in the Republic or vice versa.

It is a significant assumption to make. If Scotland were to leave the UK but remain in the CTA, it couldn't fulfil its obligations as an EU member state without a Treaty change.

The CTA predates Schengen, hence the derogation for the two nations of Ireland, but Scotland would be obliged to join Schengen as a new EU member state as neither it, nor the UK, is a current member of either the EU or part of the Schengen area.

This could be advantageous for the sleeper as immigration checks could occur prior to boarding or on the train and be less disruptive than it would be for "turn up and go" passengers on daytime services.

 

[Bletchleyite]

The CTA predates Schengen, hence the derogation for the two nations of Ireland, but Scotland would be obliged to join Schengen as a new EU member
state as neither it, nor the UK, is a current member of either the EU or part of the Schengen area.

The EU, as demonstrated by our "deal" (whatever you might think of it), is a lot more pragmatic than to throw around absolutes like that.

There would be no benefit to anybody whatsoever of Scotland joining Schengen, ergo it won't happen. There would be big disbenefits of a hard land border between England and Scotland, ergo that won't happen either.

 

[Bletchleyite]

This could be advantageous for the sleeper as immigration checks could occur prior to boarding or on the train and be less disruptive than it would be for "turn up and go" passengers on daytime services.

Passport and customs checks are conducted on board when crossing most non-Schengen borders in mainland Europe and always have been. Indeed, on Sleepers, that tends to result in a wake-up in the middle of the night, as the old approach of giving your passport to the sleeping-car attendant no longer seems to be trusted.

Going well OT but the UK is allowing Gibraltar to join Schengen!

This makes sense, just like having an independent Scotland in the CTA makes sense. Indeed, this is yet another very good reason why Scotland won't join Schengen.

There are concerns for CS about an independent Scotland, but this really isn't one of them.

 

[berneyarms]

It is a significant assumption to make. If Scotland were to leave the UK but remain in the CTA, it couldn't fulfil its obligations as an EU member state without a Treaty change.

The CTA predates Schengen, hence the derogation for the two nations of Ireland, but Scotland would be obliged to join Schengen as a new EU member state as neither it, nor the UK, is a current member of either the EU or part of the Schengen area.

This could be advantageous for the sleeper as immigration checks could occur prior to boarding or on the train and be less disruptive than it would be for "turn up and go" passengers on daytime services.

There is long history within the EU of rules being bent to accommodate particular circumstances.

I would suspect that a derogation from Schengen would be agreed as part of any negotiation. Things are never as black and white to be honest as you're suggesting.

The recent EU-UK deal and the NI protocol should tell you that much.

I've long since learned that using definitive words such as "obliged to" or "will" when it comes to dealing with the EU tends not to be wise - none of us can really tell what would happen.

 

[paul1609]

It is a significant assumption to make. If Scotland were to leave the UK but remain in the CTA, it couldn't fulfil its obligations as an EU member state without a Treaty change.

The CTA predates Schengen, hence the derogation for the two nations of Ireland, but Scotland would be obliged to join Schengen as a new EU member state as neither it, nor the UK, is a current member of either the EU or part of the Schengen area.

This could be advantageous for the sleeper as immigration checks could occur prior to boarding or on the train and be less disruptive than it would be for "turn up and go" passengers on daytime services.

There is as far as I can see no reason why the UK could not join Schengen as an associate member. It seems unlikely currently but if the immigration and security issues were to become less severe in the future who knows.

 

[35B]

The EU, as demonstrated by our "deal" (whatever you might think of it), is a lot more pragmatic than to throw around absolutes like that.

There would be no benefit to anybody whatsoever of Scotland joining Schengen, ergo it won't happen. There would be big disbenefits of a hard land border between England and Scotland, ergo that won't happen either.

I think all bets would be off in that scenario; the SNP have made statements that suggest as gross a lack of understanding of border issues as any on the Brexiteer right, and in that situation reason cannot be relied upon.

The other point, which is being missed, is that this whole scenario is being predicated on an independent Scotland joining the EU at the point of independence. That prospect is vanishingly unlikely as the ability of a newly independent Scotland to both resolve independence and agree accession on terms that it could sell to those who'd just voted for independence would test the SNP's ability to walk on political water far further than anything before.

 

[takno]

I think all bets would be off in that scenario; the SNP have made statements that suggest as gross a lack of understanding of border issues as any on the Brexiteer right, and in that situation reason cannot be relied upon.

The other point, which is being missed, is that this whole scenario is being predicated on an independent Scotland joining the EU at the point of independence. That prospect is vanishingly unlikely as the ability of a newly independent Scotland to both resolve independence and agree accession on terms that it could sell to those who'd just voted for independence would test the SNP's ability to walk on political water far further than anything before.

Whilst EU membership could be a bit of a trawl, I think Scotland being accepted into EFTA/EEA would likely be a relatively uncontroversial process which even Nicola would be hard-pressed to mess up. As has been mentioned above, the EU would probably accept a fudge there that kept Scotland in the CTA. From rUK's point of view it's really probably a choice between allowing Scotland to remain in the CTA or seeing the whole thing just collapse and being forced to merge the CTA and Schengen after a few years.

All of these are hypotheticals anyway, based on the rather fanciful notion that by the time of any vote the rUK or Scotland will have enough economic or political clout left to have their calls answered in Brussels.

 

[Berliner]

There is no reason why cross border travel would become harder. As we will see, whatever works for NI/ROI will be adopted on this island. There is no reason why something that works cannot be replicated.

Even if, for some unknown reason, Scotland resided outside the CTA, there are plenty of examples of sleeper trains crossing frontiers all over the world. It may involve a stop at the border, but I can't think why that would put off the vast majority of passengers as if that were the case then any travel between Scotland and England would incur the same checks. The train would be timed to take that into account and the process would be implemented.

Having worked at the airport, before covid anyway, I can assure people here that Scotland, especially Edinburgh is a huge destination in its own right. Yes, there are a lot of people who add Scotland to a London itinerary, but at one point the airport saw 5 North American flights, 3 Middle Eastern Flights, and dozens of European destinations every single day. Those planes were almost always completely full in peak season, the airport could barely cope. Even during the winter the New York, Doha, and Dubai flights were always very healthy on a daily basis, in and out.

 

[Berliner]

If the SNP keeps winning elections then why would you hope for the matter to go away?

it's clear that as long as there is a pro-independence majority in Holyrood, the issue of independence is something that Scots want to talk about.

 

[overthewater]

If the SNP keeps winning elections then why would you hope for the matter to go away?

it's clear that as long as there is a pro-independence majority in Holyrood, the issue of independence is something that Scots want to talk about.

Lets be fair here, Many people are voting SNP because they hate the Tories and Scottish Labour is crap right now. As far as most is concerned Lib Dems thanks to the last 3 leaders are just Tories aswell, there in crapper right now and will never get better. Just look at that Jo woman from last year.

IF Scottish Labour could find someone like Donald than there would be a chance.

 

[GusB]

Lets be fair here, Many people are voting SNP because they hate the Tories and Scottish Labour is crap right now. As far as most is concerned Lib Dems thanks to the last 3 leaders are just Tories aswell, there in crapper right now and will never get better. Just look at that Jo woman from last year.

IF Scottish Labour could find someone like Donald than there would be a chance.

I'm assuming you mean the late Donald Dewar and not "The Donald"?

 

[takno]

Lets be fair here, Many people are voting SNP because they hate the Tories and Scottish Labour is crap right now. As far as most is concerned Lib Dems thanks to the last 3 leaders are just Tories aswell, there in crapper right now and will never get better. Just look at that Jo woman from last year.

IF Scottish Labour could find someone like Donald than there would be a chance.

I think a combination of pretty poor leaders, and the rather depressing "better together" alliance which Cameron used as a kind of human shield, has left Scottish Labour in a rather difficult position. The Tories have benefitted because a lot of the Tartan Tories who were voting SNP as the socially-acceptable alternative right-wing party have been driven back into their arms.

Whilst the largely anonymous Yorkshireman currently claiming to be leading Scottish Labour seems to have woken up a bit in the last month, I tend to agree that what we really need is a better leader to work their way through the ranks.

 

[JonathanH]

As far as most is concerned Lib Dems thanks to the last 3 leaders are just Tories aswell

Where do the Liberal Democrats have to go policywise to not just be seen as 'Tories'? It seems that people who are most critical of them want them to be more progressive. Should they broadly embrace the economic policies of the left? How do they remain distinctive from the Labour Party?

 

[eoff]

I suspect that for many the LD change on tuition fees and entering a coalition has done terminal damage and they are not a consideration any more.

 

[Berliner]

The Lib Dems, to me anyway, send a confusing message. They are, apparently, pro Europe, but they seem to have dropped that stance. Not sure why as now Pro Europe unionists in Scotland have nowhere to go.

 

[overthewater]

Where do the Liberal Democrats have to go policywise to not just be seen as 'Tories'? It seems that people who are most critical of them want them to be more progressive. Should they broadly embrace the economic policies of the left? How do they remain distinctive from the Labour Party?

I suspect that for many the LD change on tuition fees and entering a coalition has done terminal damage and they are not a consideration any more.

Eff your spot on, Nick sold off his principle for a taste of power and then he got what he deserved. He wanted to cut Tuition fees, ok he lost that fine, that does NOT mean he should happily raise them. Vince cable was seen as many as the person that helped got Royal mail to be sold off.

Most say lib dems as the ones that help Austerity go as far as it did, The Collation may have reduced governments defect, yet the national debt kept on going up. All I see are lib dems who have no principles.

To be fair to them they did have one good policy, that was to raise the Tax threshold to £10'000 to get more working poor out of paying tax.

 

[Sad Sprinter]

I think your assuming people are more rational than they are. The SNP is widely seen as having handled the pandemic much better than the Tories despite the death rates in England and Scotland being almost the same. That shows that good PR often beats substance. The SNP are arguing that hard border would be England's choice through brexit and judging by the opinion polls that argument has largely been accepted.

Much of Scotland's modern national identity seems to be based on a sense of moral superiority over the English. This is supported by a Scottish government that uses its devolved powers just enough to endorse that view. For instance, tiny variations in income tax rates to show Scotland is more progressive, while not doing anything fundementally different to England. The union can't survive that attitude, brexit has just sped up the process. England has 86% of the UKs population, if the other 3 leave we will be fine on our own. I think Scotland and Northern Ireland will leave in next few years and Wales will stick with England for a generation or so.

The SNP would say that because it is a cop out answer. If Scotland joins the EU, there would need to be a border. The polls may be sanguine about that at the moment, but I would be very surprised if Scots, vote for it at a second referendum, knowing they'll be severing family and economic ties quite severely.

At the end of the day, the Covid response is why Sturgeon is pushing for a referendum as soon as possible. She needs one quickly to ride the nationalist wind blowing from Covid. Her worse nightmare is a referendum in 2024 with a Labour government, economic growth and Covid being put in the past. She almost certainly won't win then.

That's an utterly baseless and needlessly inflammatory assertion. Given the tone of your comment, it's hypocritical, too.

I'm afraid it isn't, and it has been repeated by other Scots I have spoken to about Independence also agree. Anyway, living south of the border it really isn't hard to get that impression even if it isn't true.

So do I.

I'm English.



Yes, so let's generalise that over the entire population and nation of Scotland. Good idea.

So your happy generalising 17 million Brexit voters but not the Scottish population?

 

[backontrack]

I'm afraid it isn't, and it has been repeated by other Scots I have spoken to about Independence also agree. Anyway, living south of the border it really isn't hard to get that impression even if it isn't true.


So your happy generalising 17 million Brexit voters but not the Scottish population?

No. It's still a generalisation.

Unlike me giving my opinion on Brexit. Which isn't.

 

[Sad Sprinter]

No. It's still a generalisation.

Unlike me giving my opinion on Brexit. Which isn't.

I don't think you can call 17 million people "small minded" and not expect that to be seen as a generalisation.

 

[backontrack]

I don't think you can call 17 million people "small minded" and not expect that to be seen as a generalisation.

I think Brexit itself is small-minded - on a macro level. That's not quite the same thing.

If there's one thing this forum hates even more than reopening railway lines, it's Scottish independence.

 

[overthewater]

Just like Brexit, if you dont resolve the complaints of the public even a blind man can see the writing on the wall. That the other thing I see from alot of people, the refusal to realise the wider picture and the lack of understanding something needs to change just to allow the status quo to continue.

 

[Clansman]

Lets be fair here, Many people are voting SNP because they hate the Tories and Scottish Labour is crap right now. As far as most is concerned Lib Dems thanks to the last 3 leaders are just Tories aswell, there in crapper right now and will never get better. Just look at that Jo woman from last year.

IF Scottish Labour could find someone like Donald than there would be a chance.

The assumption that the SNP exists until Labour get their act together, is just sheer ignorance to Scottish voter opinion and how the structure of the Scottish electorate system encourages a deviation away from the toxic two-party political system that plagues Westminster and our transatlantic cousins.

Scotland isn't waiting for a strong Labour, nor should anyone expect them to. Previous election results and opinion polling has proven this time and time again.

The SNP and Labour have many core values which align, and most SNP members and politicians once upon a time, were Labour. So it's nothing to do with who leads Labour, but how effective so called 'Labour values' can be implemented in Scotland. And as the past 2 decades have revealed more than anything, Labour do not own this in a proportionate system.

As someone who's seen the inside of both the SNP and Scottish Labour parties, as far as support for young people go (the future, after all), the SNP are an absolute machine to be reckoned with. As it seems, Labour do not have enough support from young people in Scotland to field candidates in the long run, and their support largely comprises of die hard closed industry workers, and tactical unionist voters in predominantly anti-Conservative metropolitan areas.

Labour are dead in Scotland so long as the UK remains in it's current form. Federalism wouldn't cut it in the long run either, and many within Scottish Labour know this all too well.

 

[Berliner]

Labour are effectively dead in Scotland and rightly so. They just run negative campaigns all the time and then blame others when they lose.

The London based parties as a whole, do themselves no favours and seem to have misunderstood what devolution in Scotland is for. They very much treat holyrood as their place to voice the UK parties policies when really, all 3 London parties should be allowing themselves to be wholly separate entities or associate parties. They shouldn't need to toe the line with London all the time. Indeed doing so has caused issues for labour in the past.

MPs I'd have no issue with identifying as the UK branch as that's their role. But for MSPs It really does them no favours, as can be seen poll after poll, election after election. The Scottish party supporting their own person in power in WM, I can just about sympathise with, but there is no earthly reason why the likes of ScotLab and ScotLibDems have such a strong anti referendum stance at the moment when they are opposition parties in the UK. I was hoping brexit would make them see sense, back what we voted for up here and then at least stand by the principal of another vote even if they ultimately do not want independence...yet they have doubled down on denying us a say on our new future and just parrot whatever the UK leader says. Bizarre and proven to be self defeating.

When I look at Wales it is a similar story, only NI really has a whole range of parties who aren't controlled by London and, whatever side of the community they fall under, at least seem to be focused only on NI.

 

[RT4038]

Why not? Just because a Common Travel Area was agreed for the United Kingdom and the Republic of Ireland on break up a hundred years ago does not mean the same needs to apply for Scotland when it goes its own way.

The CTA might well come under some pressure. Will the English be happy with Scots being free to live and work in England, and have the advantages of free movement that EU membership brings as well? Especially as there are far more Scots working in England than vice-versa. I can see the rules over dual nationality being revisited too, perhaps to not permit dual nationality of England and Scotland [or Ireland]?

The problem is that when your friend and soul mate for many generations tells you that they don't want to be with you anymore, there is a feeling of hurt, which can easily turn nasty.

 

[berneyarms]

The CTA might well come under some pressure. Will the English be happy with Scots being free to live and work in England, and have the advantages of free movement that EU membership brings as well? Especially as there are far more Scots working in England than vice-versa. I can see the rules over dual nationality being revisited too, perhaps to not permit dual nationality of England and Scotland [or Ireland]?

The problem is that when your friend and soul mate for many generations tells you that they don't want to be with you anymore, there is a feeling of hurt, which can easily turn nasty.

Is that no different to my rights as an Irish citizen to live, work, study and get free healthcare in the UK, or indeed those similar rights of anyone living in the UK that they are entitled to in Ireland?

You seem to be forgetting your history. The CTA arose out of Ireland gaining independence from the UK (following the War of Independence between 1919 and 1921) and I don't see any suggestion that it should be abandoned just because Ireland remains an independent country in the EU?

Quite the opposite. GB politicians fall over themselves defending the CTA, as indeed do Unionists in NI.

I think some of you are coming up with all sorts of obstacles that could happen should the Scots take that course via a peaceful referendum, when in fact political realities tend to result in pragmatic solutions taking place.

 

[Senex]

The CTA might well come under some pressure. Will the English be happy with Scots being free to live and work in England, and have the advantages of free movement that EU membership brings as well? Especially as there are far more Scots working in England than vice-versa. I can see the rules over dual nationality being revisited too, perhaps to not permit dual nationality of England and Scotland [or Ireland]?

The problem is that when your friend and soul mate for many generations tells you that they don't want to be with you anymore, there is a feeling of hurt, which can easily turn nasty.

The break with Ireland was pretty acrimonious and complicated by the issue of the Six Counties, yet reasonably good arrangements were made between the two countries (like the CTA). However nasty things got with Scotland, I don't think they'd be as bad as they were with Ireland. (In the case of Ireland, you could argue that if the English had been even a little more sensitive towards that country over the previous 80-100 years, the split, even if it had happened, could have taken place more amicably and without the bitterness that dragged on long afterwards. And yet now we see Westminster treating Scotland in many ways much as Westminster treated Ireland in the second half of the nineteenth century. Do the English governing classes learn nothing?)

 

[Berliner]

I very much doubt the CTA would end and let's be honest if it did it would be out of spite from the UK side. There is no way an independent Scotland would be telling people from the CTA that they can't continue to move freely in Scotland and no way Ireland would be restricting Scots either. The EU freedom of movement is nothing to do with the CTA, Scotland would not be in the Schengen zone either, so there would still be controls on people coming in, just as there is via the ROI today. If a country's only border is to a non EU nation then there is no obligation to join Schengen if they don't want to.

Like previously mentioned, people always seem to come up bizarre obstacles when it comes to Scottish independence. It's as if they think the landmass that is Scotland is literally the only part of the world which simply cannot function as an independent country.

 

[Clansman]

Like previously mentioned, people always seem to come up bizarre obstacles when it comes to Scottish independence.

Definitely agree with this. It's almost become a running joke at the amount of tosh that's said to avoid anything to do with the subject.

The more the pro UK side tug at the heart strings with endless nostalgic adjectives, the more desperate they become. Ironic that those of the pro UK side from both sides of the border who use the emotional argument of history, comradery, togetherness (all the buzzwords), actually just want the process to be done with and the status quo to continue without anything meaningful other than their own sense of metaphoric pride in something that doesn't physically exist and making no real compromise from their own side as a result.

A personal favourite being "Why can't we all just get along" - translates to something along the lines of "we shouldn't change, so why can't you just quit moaning and adopt the attitude we have". Though sadly many people aren't as honest and open with this for whatever reason. Perception, I suppose.

 

[RT4038]

Is that no different to my rights as an Irish citizen to live, work, study and get free healthcare in the UK, or indeed those similar rights of anyone living in the UK that they are entitled to in Ireland?

You seem to be forgetting your history. The CTA arose out of Ireland gaining independence from the UK (following the War of Independence between 1919 and 1921) and I don't see any suggestion that it should be abandoned just because Ireland remains an independent country in the EU?

Quite the opposite. GB politicians fall over themselves defending the CTA, as indeed do Unionists in NI.

I think some of you are coming up with all sorts of obstacles that could happen should the Scots take that course via a peaceful referendum, when in fact political realities tend to result in pragmatic solutions taking place.

I am not forgetting any history - but that was in a different time and different circumstances. I don't think there should be an assumption that the same would happen again.

The break with Ireland was pretty acrimonious and complicated by the issue of the Six Counties, yet reasonably good arrangements were made between the two countries (like the CTA). However nasty things got with Scotland, I don't think they'd be as bad as they were with Ireland. (In the case of Ireland, you could argue that if the English had been even a little more sensitive towards that country over the previous 80-100 years, the split, even if it had happened, could have taken place more amicably and without the bitterness that dragged on long afterwards. And yet now we see Westminster treating Scotland in many ways much as Westminster treated Ireland in the second half of the nineteenth century. Do the English governing classes learn nothing?)

I don't think the English do 'sensitive' very well, governing classes or not. I don't see Westminster treating Scotland on many ways much as Westminster treated Ireland in the second half of the nineteenth century. However, I may not be sensitive to these things!

I very much doubt the CTA would end and let's be honest if it did it would be out of spite from the UK side. There is no way an independent Scotland would be telling people from the CTA that they can't continue to move freely in Scotland and no way Ireland would be restricting Scots either. The EU freedom of movement is nothing to do with the CTA, Scotland would not be in the Schengen zone either, so there would still be controls on people coming in, just as there is via the ROI today. If a country's only border is to a non EU nation then there is no obligation to join Schengen if they don't want to.

Like previously mentioned, people always seem to come up bizarre obstacles when it comes to Scottish independence. It's as if they think the landmass that is Scotland is literally the only part of the world which simply cannot function as an independent country.

I am sure that Scotland could function as an independent country. What it would be like is conjecture at this stage. (As, of course, a UK outside of the EU was at the time of the referendum)