Scotrail Diesel Fleet Replacement Strategy

[Class83]

Even assuming the HST introduction issues are resolved over the next year, they can't be expected to last more than 10 years, likewise the 156s and 158s are currently ~30 years old and even the 170s are now around 20 years old. So by 2030 it is likely that Scotrail will need to replace most of the current diesel fleet.

The Fleet and the services it operates split as I see it into 3 general types; Intercity, Commuter (Borders, Fife, Non-Electric SPT & Aberdeen Crossrail) and Rural (GSW, West Highland and Far North/Kyle).

Intercity: Currently HSTs possible replacements might include bimodes if electrification continues probably 130-140m long, vestibule doors and with sufficient power to accelerate well out of Queen Street and up gradients on the Highland Main Line, max speed at least 100mph.
Hitachi AT300 an obvious and easy choice
Stadler FLIRT, a possible combination of class 745 carriage layout and class 755 bi mode capability
Bombardier and Siemens don't seem to have any obvious non-electric offerings.

Commuter: Assuming the mk2s leave shortly these will be predominantly 170 operated, with a few 158s in the mix. Specification will be fast acceleration, 100mph max speed would be useful though 90 may be acceptable with good acceleration, mid carriage doors for fast loading, and 140m (or 70m to run in multiple) long.
Hitachi AT200 if electrification continues, or if there are gaps (e.g. Forth Bridge) then a version with a short range battery may be suitable.
CAF Civity - Class 195s would seem a suitable option
Stadler FLIRT - Class 755 derivative possibly with more diesel capability

Rural: 158s and 156s, depending on electrification and the commuter options, the same units as chosen for this might be used on Aberdeen Crossrail. Roughly 50m long units which can run in multiple may be more flexible than 70m, allowing a 6 car to split 4/2 at Crianlarich or Dingwall. Top speed and acceleration, while not vital, decent performance and low operating cost will be required, as well as the ability to run without too much work to improve clearances. Vestibule doors and large windows would be useful. A large luggage area capable or taking skis in winter and bikes/tents in summer, I'm thinking of a 2.5m long flexible space at the end of a carrige in each 50m unit.
There are fewer 'obvious' choices here, a derivative of FLIRT or CIVITY seems likely, as this will be a smaller order if one of those is chosen for commuter routes that could give a strong position here.

 

[Alfie1014]

Transport Scotland and Scotrail are working up a rolling programme of electrification for the Scottish Government to meet its de-carbonisation targets. This would limit diesel or self powered operation to the extremities; Stranraer, West Highland and Far North. So the likelihood of any new diesel vehicles being procured again is pretty slim!

 

[D365]

The hope would be that electrification could reach Aberdeen and Inverness within 10 years, to avoid the need for bi-modes. However we all know the chances of that being completed on time...

 

[Class83]

Transport Scotland and Scotrail are working up a rolling programme of electrification for the Scottish Government to meet its de-carbonisation targets. This would limit diesel or self powered operation to the extremities; Stranraer, West Highland and Far North. So the likelihood of any new diesel vehicles being procured again is pretty slim!

Indeed, the title is meant in the concept of replacement of not replacement with diesel my thoughts on replacements for the non-rural stock are at least bi-mode/electric. Do you have any thoughts on the stock which is likely to be available and suitable to meet the Transport Scotland de-carbonisation targets?

 

[Class83]

The hope would be that electrification could reach Aberdeen and Inverness within 10 years, to avoid the need for bi-modes. However we all know the chances of that being completed on time...

I haven't been able to find any current plans for continuing the electrification of the Scottish network now the EGIP work is complete. What happened to the staff who were doing this work? As even if they start now it would be a major push to complete within 10 years.

 

[D365]

I haven't been able to find any current plans for continuing the electrification of the Scottish network now the EGIP work is complete. What happened to the staff who were doing this work? As even if they start now it would be a major push to complete within 10 years.

That's exactly what my post is inferring.

 

[GRALISTAIR]

Transport Scotland and Scotrail are working up a rolling programme of electrification for the Scottish Government to meet its de-carbonisation targets. This would limit diesel or self powered operation to the extremities; Stranraer, West Highland and Far North. So the likelihood of any new diesel vehicles being procured again is pretty slim!

The hope would be that electrification could reach Aberdeen and Inverness within 10 years, to avoid the need for bi-modes. However we all know the chances of that being completed on time...

It actually does not all need to be electrified. I know ideally it should but bear with me. If you order all the grid feeders needed and do say 20 miles each side or similar or just electrify all the 7 cities stations then hopefully get England’s bimodes cascaded from their hopeful electrification programme you buy a lot of time. Then order full electrics when you are confident that the sparks program will be complete and cascade the bimodes to the extremities.

 

[route101]

Perhaps say Stranraer and Carlisle services will be replaced by DMUs . EK hopefully will be wired.

 

[hexagon789]

EK hopefully will be wired.

Long overdue given a plan to electrify the branch was approved in 1983 but ultimately came to nought.

 

[tbtc]

I haven't been able to find any current plans for continuing the electrification of the Scottish network now the EGIP work is complete. What happened to the staff who were doing this work? As even if they start now it would be a major push to complete within 10 years.

This is something I don't know about - Scotland is (rightly) held up as the flagship for what the rest of the UK should be following but ... now that the Central Belt electrification is coming to an end, what actual commitments are there for more?

There's certainly lines that could be done (nay, should be done!) but... presumably this would be starting from scratch, with teams disbanded? i.e. the much lauded Scotland has done exactly what people complain that England has done (targeted the highest priority stuff and then gone cold on the remainder)?

Much as I like the general approach, I don't know if it's a good thing or a bad thing that the (temporary) HSTs will need replacement at the same time as pretty much all of the diesel stock, which will mean a very expensive set of replacements (but a great opportunity to shape a compatible/ co-ordinated fleet?). Could be the kind of awkward decision that gets deferred and deferred, given the cost implications? Or just bung it on PFI and worry about repayments over the long term?

 

[Bevan Price]

If Scotland remains within UK, I think that electrification may reach Aberdeen via both routes by about 2035. Inverness is less likely, and will probably get some form of bi-mode trains (updated 802s ?)
Should Scotland ever become independent, the main problem will be to avoid becoming bankrupt, and they will struggle even to replace existing stock. (Some SNP people seem to think that EU will give them nice cushy deals ...)

 

[gingertom]

It actually does not all need to be electrified. I know ideally it should but bear with me. If you order all the grid feeders needed and do say 20 miles each side or similar or just electrify all the 7 cities stations then hopefully get England’s bimodes cascaded from their hopeful electrification programme you buy a lot of time. Then order full electrics when you are confident that the sparks program will be complete and cascade the bimodes to the extremities.

commitment to electrify to Aberdeen and Inverness needs to go hand in hand with major infrastructure improvements, as it becomes very expensive to do once the wires go up. I'm primarily talking about doubling the single track sections: Tay viaduct to the east of Perth, Usan to Montrose and vast swathes of Highland mainline.

 

[GRALISTAIR]

And of course Perth remodeling needs to be done before sparking it

 

[gingertom]

And of course Perth remodeling needs to be done before sparking it

And several tunnels needing "attention" .

 

[GusB]

Should Scotland ever become independent, the main problem will be to avoid becoming bankrupt, and they will struggle even to replace existing stock. (Some SNP people seem to think that EU will give them nice cushy deals ...)

Show your working, please.

 

[xotGD]

They'll be getting hydrogen fuel cell powered units for non-electrified routes. Not new diesel trains.

 

[class26]

Show your working, please.

Sorry off topic but given that Scotland`s debt is approx twice that of Greece the future as independent would be grim indeed.

 

[adamedwards]

I wonder how many of the rural routes could be bimode too, e.g.
Stranraer is electric to Ayr.
Kilmarnock will surely be electric with diesel on to Gretna Green and then Electric to Carlisle.
West Highland is electric to nearly Helensburgh.
If Greater Anglia can make this work, then ScotRail can too.

 

[tbtc]

If Scotland remains within UK, I think that electrification may reach Aberdeen via both routes by about 2035. Inverness is less likely, and will probably get some form of bi-mode trains (updated 802s ?)

I agree - Inverness seems a very long way to go just for the sake of replacing one diesel train per hour (which, TBQH, is all that the Highland Main Line is ever going to sustain).

Bi-modes for the Highlands and focus attention on electrifying places with higher frequency diesel services (Fife!)

I wonder how many of the rural routes could be bimode too, e.g.
Stranraer is electric to Ayr.
Kilmarnock will surely be electric with diesel on to Gretna Green and then Electric to Carlisle.
West Highland is electric to nearly Helensburgh.
If Greater Anglia can make this work, then ScotRail can too.

Bi-modes could be a game changer on routes like Ayr - Stranraer, where a significant percentage of the route is under wires, so being able to run direct services with environmentally sound stock would be a huge benefit.

I can't see the relatively short stretch of Queen Street - Hellensburgh (twenty five miles) making much difference on the distance left to Mallaig (over a hundred north of Hellensburgh). Maybe there may be a token peak working from Crianlarich in the morning with bi-mode stock but I don't think the WHL is going to be affected much by bi-mode operation

 

[gingertom]

Sorry off topic but given that Scotland`s debt is approx twice that of Greece the future as independent would be grim indeed.

that's strange, the Scottish Government doesn't have borrowing powers, so can't have any debt.

 

[Meerkat]

Concentrate electrification on what will free up the most 170s - Fife circle? That will keep the wolf from the door on rural for an extra 10 years.
West Highland - could battery trains work if you built an electric island outward a few miles from Fort William?

 

[Clip]

that's strange, the Scottish Government doesn't have borrowing powers, so can't have any debt.

You are, of course, quite correct in that they cant have 'debt', however i feel thats a little bit pedantic because we all knew what the poster was getting at and it does appear that Scotlands national deficit is quite large

https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news...8-deficit-higher-than-uk-as-a-whole-last-year

economic policies. Photograph: Jeff J Mitchell/Getty Images


Scotland ran a deficit seven times higher than the UK as a whole last year, despite again cutting its overspend on public services.

The latest Government Expenditure and Revenue Scotland (Gers) figures showed there was a record gap of nearly £2,000 per person between how much was spent on public services and debt repayment, and total tax revenues for 2018-19.

Scotland’s notional deficit stood at £12.6bn or 7% of GDP, including North Sea oil revenues, compared with the UK’s total £23.5bn deficit, which includes Scotland’s figure. The UK deficit is equivalent to 1.1% of its GDP.

Total state spending in Scotland was £1,661 higher per person than the UK average at £75.3bn, while tax receipts were £307 less per head than the UK average, at £62.7bn. Excluding oil revenues, the deficit exceeded £14bn, equal to 22.5% of tax revenues.

 

[Class83]

Concentrate electrification on what will free up the most 170s - Fife circle? That will keep the wolf from the door on rural for an extra 10 years.
West Highland - could battery trains work if you built an electric island outward a few miles from Fort William?

Yes, Fife Circle is probably the best 'units converted to electric'/'miles of wires', though there is a big red question mark in the way which is why short range battery might be required, if you do to Dundee for the stoppers it could free up 12-15 units during peaks. Borders probably isn't too bad, half hourly service and I believe that all the clearances are good for wiring as it's quite new, again 8-10 units during peak times.

 

[Bevan Price]

Bevan Price said: ↑
Should Scotland ever become independent, the main problem will be to avoid becoming bankrupt, and they will struggle even to replace existing stock. (Some SNP people seem to think that EU will give them nice cushy deals ...)

Show your working, please.

Well - just for a start, if an independent joined the EU, they (EU) would require customs checks at the border with England, and (in the absence of a three way tariff deal EU/Rest of UK/ Scotland), there would be tariffs on goods crossing the border.

Whitehall would probably want immigration checks at the border (to stop uncontrolled immigration via EU + Scotland). (And people think that the Irish border causes problems........)

Tourism income from Rest of UK may decline a bit due to extra costs (currency exchange fees, etc.)

Scotland would cease to receive funds from Whitehall.

Oil revenues for Scotland from the North Sea are likely to decline steadily as supplies become exhausted.

Scotland will have to contribute to EU budgets.

And - a lot of politicians (of all parties) seem to think that if they want something, it will happen easily without extra costs or inconveniences.

(Just like Batty Boris thinks that EU will give him a nice cushy trade deal by December 2020; they have no need to rush things just to suit a country that has created so much inconvenience & disruption in its pursuit of Brexit.)

[ Edit - Moderators please move to General Discussions if you feel that is a more suitable location for this. BP]

 

[Struner]

Bevan Price said: ↑
Should Scotland ever become independent, the main problem will be to avoid becoming bankrupt, and they will struggle even to replace existing stock.
[…]

Like @class26 said

Sorry off topic but given that Scotland`s debt is approx twice that of Greece the future as independent would be grim indeed.

OT.

 

[class26]

that's strange, the Scottish Government doesn't have borrowing powers, so can't have any debt.

It is Scotland`s share of UK`s dept. It is highly unlikely that Scotland would be allowed to just walk away empty handed

There are huge potential problems that are not being discussed but are profound.
Currency. The SNP keep saying they will keep the Pound. Maybe they will but then Scotland will not be independent. Another opinion I have heard is a "Scottish Pound". The general consensus is that would fall in value like a stone meaning the dept level would increase dramatically becoming unsustainable very quickly. The other option (and most likely) would be adopt the Euro as membership of the EU the Euro is now mandatory ir no option. This also means Scotland`s dept would be in a foreign currency (ie British Pounds) so Scotland once again looses control of the dept level. Exactly the same as having your mortgage in a foreign currency. Financial suicide.
All the above would lead to a very precarious future for Scotland.

Sorry this is off topic but it needed saying.

 

[pro4600]

Please. Enough with the politics.