Second Scottish Independence Referendum

[najaB]

Would Nicola still have called for IndyRef2 without an argument about Scotland being dragged out of the EU against its will? Yes she would!

I'm not so sure.

The counter-argument doesn't make as powerful appeal to the emotion. Scotland leaving the EU despite having voted to stay feels wrong. Scotland making a bid for independence because we got what we wanted in the referendum doesn't quite have the same ethos about it.

 

[najaB]

I had been so dismayed by so much of Scotland voting SNP at the General Election...

As covered earlier in the thread, many Scots didn't vote for the SNP because of any desire for independence. We voted SNP because they appeared to be the best way to get a progressive, forward thinking, Scotland-centric government.

(In other words, Scottish Labour were %$£% and the Lib-Dems shafted us by going into coalition with the Tories.)

 

[317 forever]

Who's going to lead the No campaign this time? Better Together were canny last time in choosing a figure who was actually Scottish in Alistair Darling, and who wasn't a Tory (they're still regarded as toxic by many). Who will do that job now? Ruth Davidson's ruled herself out...will it be J.K. Rowling or someone like that? Alistair Darling again? Ed Balls on a post-Strictly popularity drive? Ed Milliband? Probably not Tony Blair...is David Mundell all the Tories have left?

Personally, I think it might be Gordon Brown this time round.

The No campaign could be led by an Ian Murray - Alistair Carmichael dream ticket!

 

[317 forever]

As I live and work in Scotland and was brought up in this country I would just like too add my two pence worth, or groats worth or shillings worth.

In 2014 I voted No and to remain in the UK in the Scottish Independence referendum and was a No voter and supporter right from the very beginning when it was first mooted by the SNP a couple of years before.

Fast forward to 2016 and the EU referendum, I voted to Leave the EU. Now yet again the SNP are throwing another referendum back in the mix.

The SNP seem to forget that the United Kingdom as a whole voted to leave. This was not a Scotland only vote. The SNP seem to keep on saying that 62% of Scotland voted to remain on a 67% turnout. Now taking the votes to remain and leave this actually works out with a remain vote of only 41.875% and to the 62% that they keep on banding about. It would be a 62% vote if 100% of eligible voters voted.

Theresa May is absolutely right to say that now is not the time to hold another referendum given that we still do not know that the Brexit deal is going to look like.

Watching the interviews between all the Scottish leaders, the only one that seems to be on the ball is Ruth Davidson. Nicola Sturgeon was in an absolute flap this morning on Sky News and starting getting questions put to her that she could not answer because she didn't have an answer to give.

Ruth Davidson on Andrew Marr this morning, was in a class of her own. Andrew Marr deliberately tried to trip her up on several occasions but didn't work.

I hope in all sincerity that Westminster reject the Section 30 order that the SNP and the Greens will vote for next week.

Going forward, we need a figure to lead the No campaign if and when Nicola Sturgeon gets her neverendum, and that figure certainly won't be the likes of Gordon Brown or John Major who seem to be popping their heads up from the pulpit again.

I reckon that if there were IndyRef2 held tomorrow, the effect of Brexit would raise the Yes vote from 45% to 47-48%, so still insufficient to achieve independence. I think many Scots are in the Ruth Davidson camp, in that they wanted to remain in the EU and voted Remain, but do not see EU membership sufficiently important to leave the UK for.

 

[najaB]

I think many Scots are in the Ruth Davidson camp, in that they wanted to remain in the EU and voted Remain, but do not see EU membership sufficiently important to leave the UK for.

Most of the people I've spoken with (admittedly a small sample) are in the 'wait and see' camp at the moment. They have two unpalatable options and are still trying to figure out which they dislike least.

 

[me123]

I think the "wait and see" group are probably the most sensible. We don't know what's going to happen yet, so it's worth seeing the deal we get from the EU and the prospects for rejoining. I'm not optimistic about anything the next few years have to offer, but it's worth seeing before we reach a decision.

I can't see my position changing, but I'll see what happens and reappraise accordingly.

 

[najaB]

It appears that Spain is dropping its opposition to an independent Scotland joining the EU.

Spain drops plan to impose veto if Scotland tries to join EU

Spain has said it would not veto an attempt by an independent Scotland to join the EU, in a boost to Nicola Sturgeon’s campaign for a second independence referendum and the clearest sign yet that Brexit has softened Madrid’s longstanding opposition.

Alfonso Dastis, the Spanish foreign minister, made it clear that the government would not block an independent Scotland’s EU hopes, although he stressed that Madrid would not welcome the disintegration of the UK.

He also said Edinburgh would have to apply for membership, a process fraught with uncertainty that is likely to take several years. But asked directly whether Spain would veto an independent Scotland joining the EU, Dastis said: “No, we wouldn’t.”

Notable though that they expect Scotland to apply for membership rather than inheriting the UK's membership.

 

[bramling]

I'm not so sure.

The counter-argument doesn't make as powerful appeal to the emotion. Scotland leaving the EU despite having voted to stay feels wrong. Scotland making a bid for independence because we got what we wanted in the referendum doesn't quite have the same ethos about it.

Sturgeon will always be looking for any reason to try and call for a referendum, that's her only way of achieving independence which is what she has dreamed about every night since she was a kid. If it wasn't Brexit then sooner or later it would have been some other grievance.

I do find the Sturgeon effect strange though. I regard her as very much a negative politician - one who stirs up grievance and negativity. In England such politicians don't tend to do very well electorally, look at UKIP's lack of electoral breakthrough as a case in point. I can't see Sturgeon winning a independence referendum without a positive vision, yet so much of what comes out of her mouth is negativity. Some of her MPs seem even worse.

 

[GaryMcEwan]

Sturgeon will always be looking for any reason to try and call for a referendum, that's her only way of achieving independence which is what she has dreamed about every night since she was a kid. If it wasn't Brexit then sooner or later it would have been some other grievance.

I do find the Sturgeon effect strange though. I regard her as very much a negative politician - one who stirs up grievance and negativity. In England such politicians don't tend to do very well electorally, look at UKIP's lack of electoral breakthrough as a case in point. I can't see Sturgeon winning a independence referendum without a positive vision, yet so much of what comes out of her mouth is negativity. Some of her MPs seem even worse.

When it comes to Nicola Sturgeon, it's either

Westminster's fault
Scotland having to accept Tory austerity
Scotland being taken out of the EU against it's will

The list goes on, and when it comes to the Westminster SNP MP's, lets not even start about the smug Angus Robertson.

 

[AlterEgo]

I do find the Sturgeon effect strange though. I regard her as very much a negative politician - one who stirs up grievance and negativity. In England...

"Location: South East"

 

[DynamicSpirit]

What if Scotland had voted heavily Remain and swung a minor Leave vote in England & Wales into a minor Remain vote across the UK? Would Nicola still have called for IndyRef2 without an argument about Scotland being dragged out of the EU against its will? Yes she would! She would have argued that Scotland needs independence so that they do not hold England & Wales back from a future outside the EU!

That's pure speculation, and doesn't seem remotely plausible to me. Personally I'd rather Scotland remained in the UK, but the argument that Sturgeon and the SNP are currently making, that the situation has substantially changed since the last referendum, is eminently reasonable when you consider that a significant argument on the 'No' side last time was that voting 'No' would allow staying in the EU.

You're apparently extrapolating from that to suggest that the same people would make a spurious argument for a 2nd referendum even if they didn't have any good grounds for it. I'm afraid I don't see anything to justify your speculation there. (Especially since it would not be in the SNP's interest to call another referendum if they aren't extremely likely to win it - and if the UK had voted remain, that would make a 'Yes' vote less likely).

 

[najaB]

Sturgeon will always be looking for any reason to try and call for a referendum, that's her only way of achieving independence which is what she has dreamed about every night since she was a kid. If it wasn't Brexit then sooner or later it would have been some other grievance.

Seeing as she's the leader of a political party which has Scottish independence as one of its main platform planks that is hardly surprising. (TBH, I think she would be derelict in her duty if she didn't seek to make the case for independence).

However, she also is a canny enough politician to recognise that there's no point in calling for a referendum if there isn't a realistic chance of getting the result she wants.

 

[GaryMcEwan]

Seeing as she's the leader of a political party which has Scottish independence as one of its main platform planks that is hardly surprising. (TBH, I think she would be derelict in her duty if she didn't seek to make the case for independence).

However, she also is a canny enough politician to recognise that there's no point in calling for a referendum if there isn't a realistic chance of getting the result she wants.

I have no time for the woman, but I don't think she would be that stupid in calling a referendum and then ultimately losing it like what Alex Salmond did.

She's playing political suicide with her own career, and if she was that canny then she would wait until after Brexit has happened to see how it if any it benefits Scotland.

There is no point in calling a referendum off the hoof, because she didn't get the result she wanted. She frequently mentions education being one of her main priorities, but there has been no debating time at Holyrood since October 2016, but yet seems time to find mention independence on a daily occasion.

If I was Theresa May, my answer to Nicola Sturgeon would be, call an election and only if you get a majority in that election then you can have the referendum.

For all we know, if the Greens hadn't of sold out when the budget vote came, we could have had an election which could have changed things altogether, and the SNP could have lost power at Holyrood.

 

[furnessvale]

It appears that Spain is dropping its opposition to an independent Scotland joining the EU.

Spain drops plan to impose veto if Scotland tries to join EU
Notable though that they expect Scotland to apply for membership rather than inheriting the UK's membership.

Far more about Spain's desire to shaft the UK rather than any love of Scotland.

When the dust has settled and we are out of the EU, let us see THEN just how keen Spain is to back such a break up given their Basque and Catalan problems.

 

[najaB]

Far more about Spain's desire to shaft the UK rather than any love of Scotland.

If Spain just wanted to shaft the UK they wouldn't have publicly stated their opposition to Scotland joining the EU in the event of a Yes vote in the last referendum.

 

[furnessvale]

If Spain just wanted to shaft the UK they wouldn't have publicly stated their opposition to Scotland joining the EU in the event of a Yes vote in the last referendum.

A lot has changed since then and they now have their eye on the Gilbraltar prize, nobly assisted by our EU friends.

 

[bramling]

A lot has changed since then and they now have their eye on the Gilbraltar prize, nobly assisted by our EU friends.

I suspect all the Gibraltar rhetoric will fade away, but I do find the Spain/EU position rather distasteful. Although one can sense some appetite for Scottish independence, hence such talk is at least a reasonable discussion to be having, there seems little or no appetite in Gibraltar for a change of sovereignty. At the end of the day it's for the people to decide.

 

[najaB]

Although one can sense some appetite for Scottish independence, hence such talk is at least a reasonable discussion to be having, there seems little or no appetite in Gibraltar for a change of sovereignty. At the end of the day it's for the people to decide.

Spain has wanted to get Gibraltar back for the better part of three hundred years. As such it isn't surprising that they will make noises about it but even they know that it just isn't going to happen while the majority of the population still wish to be British rather than Spanish subjects.

However, they need to make protestations, for domestic consumption as much as with any real expectation of actual results.

 

[dcsprior]

I think many Scots [snip] wanted to remain in the EU and voted Remain, but do not see EU membership sufficiently important to leave the UK for.

I think that may be misunderstanding the effect of brexit on the independence question.

I agree that for Scotland the EU was never the big issue that it was for much of England - that's why turnout was lower here. I'd describe the Scottish position on the EU as not understanding why the English were so bothered with it, as we could never really see the problem.

The real impact is that things that came up in the first IndyRef are affected by the brexit vote - for instance:

• Border/customs controls between Scotland and England, and/or restrictions on cross-border workers: The UK Government has stated there won't be any problems in these regards for the Irish border, so it's reasonable to assume this will also be the case between Scotland and England.
• Risk: Scottish independence brings risk, Brexit brings risk - therefore the net additional risk of independence (whilst staying in the EU) vs remaining in UK (and leaving EU) is less than the risk of independence last time. It's not that unlikely that 1 in 11 No voters last time (i.e. enough to get above 50%) liked the idea of independence but lacked the appetite for risk - now that risk is lower (possibly less than the risk of remaining in the UK) they may vote the other way.
• Currency: "You'll lose the pound" has a lot less weight now that it's worth ~15% less than it was then.
• The no campaign itself: The fact that "vote no to avoid losing your EU membership" has been shown to be correct (even if many arguments in politics are incorrect on all sides) may cause some people to doubt any argument from the no campaign this time.

These are just a few examples of how EU membership doesn't need to be super-important for Scots to influence a second indyref.

 

[Butts]

Firstly, having moved from Scotland to Wales in the last few weeks it's amazing how Independence is a non-event for Cymru when you speak to people.

I hope there is another Independence Referendum in Scotland (and I should be back in time to have a vote !!) as when it is lost Sturgeon will have to resign. Will Alex Salmond be back for a third time as leader agitating for Ref No 3 ? - What excuse will they come up with this time

My own personal voting record (in Scotland)

2014 Independence Vote ...Yes

2016 EU ....Yes to leaving

Scottish Conservative and Unionist Party - we are all nutters

 

[St Rollox]

Fair play to Theresa May, she's going all out to finishing the UK.

 

[GaryMcEwan]

Fair play to Theresa May, she's going all out to finishing the UK.

I doubt it. I notice that Nicola Sturgeon has stopped saying that Scotland didn't vote for a Tory Government. She must be scared that she'll be losing a few WM seats.

I for one hope that Alison Thewliss who is my local MP loses her seat. She actually hasn't done anything to benefit Glasgow Central.

 

[St Rollox]

I doubt it. I notice that Nicola Sturgeon has stopped saying that Scotland didn't vote for a Tory Government. She must be scared that she'll be losing a few WM seats.

I for one hope that Alison Thewliss who is my local MP loses her seat. She actually hasn't done anything to benefit Glasgow Central.

How's things in the local Labour Party these days, comrade.
You still a member?
Good old Jeremy.

 

[GaryMcEwan]

How's things in the local Labour Party these days, comrade.
You still a member?
Good old Jeremy.

I'll be switching my vote in May and June, and it certainly won't be for the SNP that's for sure...

 

[St Rollox]

I'll be switching my vote in May and June, and it certainly won't be for the SNP that's for sure...

Fair play to you.
In three years you've managed to go from a paid up Labour Party member to some other unionist grouping.
What price loyalty?
Tbh, the SNPs best bet was a finished off Scottish branch of the British Labour Party.
There's only going to be one winner in a straight SNP v Tory fight.

 

[47802]

I think that may be misunderstanding the effect of brexit on the independence question.

I agree that for Scotland the EU was never the big issue that it was for much of England - that's why turnout was lower here. I'd describe the Scottish position on the EU as not understanding why the English were so bothered with it, as we could never really see the problem.

The real impact is that things that came up in the first IndyRef are affected by the brexit vote - for instance:

• Border/customs controls between Scotland and England, and/or restrictions on cross-border workers: The UK Government has stated there won't be any problems in these regards for the Irish border, so it's reasonable to assume this will also be the case between Scotland and England.
• Risk: Scottish independence brings risk, Brexit brings risk - therefore the net additional risk of independence (whilst staying in the EU) vs remaining in UK (and leaving EU) is less than the risk of independence last time. It's not that unlikely that 1 in 11 No voters last time (i.e. enough to get above 50%) liked the idea of independence but lacked the appetite for risk - now that risk is lower (possibly less than the risk of remaining in the UK) they may vote the other way.
• Currency: "You'll lose the pound" has a lot less weight now that it's worth ~15% less than it was then.
• The no campaign itself: The fact that "vote no to avoid losing your EU membership" has been shown to be correct (even if many arguments in politics are incorrect on all sides) may cause some people to doubt any argument from the no campaign this time.

These are just a few examples of how EU membership doesn't need to be super-important for Scots to influence a second indyref.

I'm not sure how you can come to that conclusion I think some form of Border Controls between England and Scotland would be highly likely in the event of Scottish independence regardless of what happens in Ireland, while the idea of sharing a common currency would make even less sense between an EU country and non EU country so Scotland would likely either have to use the Euro or a Scottish Pound not supported by the Bank of England. I would think they will be significant factors in any new independence vote.