Even Network Rail admits that third rail would be cheaper than 25kV these days - as they did in their
Kent Route Study
(In 2018 they projected Marshlink at £100-250m for third rail, versus £250m-500m for 25kV.)
Hmm. That's a little bit disingenuous.
Having read
the document from which those figures came, I feel it important that I should point out that these are
specific estimates for a
specific scheme, and that they come with a lot of unknowns at present. Both electrification schemes come with an amount of civil engineering and signalling attached (bridge clearances, signalling immunisation, etc) but, as the DC scheme is an in-fill, it does come with a few potential savings built in. For example, the estimate says that power can be fed from either end by upgrading the existing supply whereas an AC scheme would require new feeder stations. This would be a big saving, as would the more modest needs for bridge clearance work.
However, the estimate does make a lot of assumptions that may prove to be false when it comes to designing the project for implementation. These include the number of bridges that may need to be replaced and, indeed, whether or not supplying power to DC electrification from either end is going to be sufficient. The estimate for the AC scheme includes three feeder stations while the DC scheme has none. Power supply requirements and voltage drop through the 3rd rail along the length of the route may mean that feeder stations may be required after all. Indeed, it may be the case that the AC scheme needs fewer than three feeder stations.
What is clear, however, is that comparing in-fill DC electrification on a lightly used line to an AC electrification island does not bolster the argument that 3rd rail is cheaper than OLE. If it was a new electrification scheme (say, to Salisbury) I would expect that the difference between the two would be a lot closer.
To be honest I'd say it might even be worth looking at a novel bottom contact third rail solution given the catastrophic issues plaguing the 25kV programme.
I don't think that we need to be inventing a new system that would make the stock incompatible with existing systems.