Should We Leave the EU?

[Butts]

The number one priority is to ensure that we retain our rights to live, work and retire anywhere in the EU/EEA. If that right is lost I will emigrate as soon as possible and acquire another nationality in order to retain that right.

Well you won't have to move very far as it is likely if the UK as a whole votes to leave the EU and Scotland as an entity does not than this will trigger another Referendum and Scotland will in all probability Vote yes to Independence this time.

Provided we are permitted to remain within the EU we may let you in

 

[St Rollox]

Well you won't have to move very far as it is likely if the UK as a whole votes to leave the EU and Scotland as an entity does not than this will trigger another Referendum and Scotland will in all probability Vote yes to Independence this time.

Provided we are permitted to remain within the EU we may let you in

20 months ago you were threatening to leave Scotland if the YES side won.
Covering all your bases?

 

[DarloRich]

I worry about the standard and quality of debate we will have on this topic. I fear it will be based around media led willful misconceptions of the EU on the following points;

Sovereignty
Migrants
Benefits
Foreigners (aka Germans and French) telling us what to do
Human Rights Act
Social Chapter
Single currency

Whilst being pro EU as an ideal I don't know how i will vote. I want dispassionate, honest and accurate information to help me make up my mind. I also do not trust the Tories an inch on Europe or on their behaviour after an exit.

I fear too many will be led by the media and spin rather than informed and educated debate.

 

[Butts]

20 months ago you were threatening to leave Scotland if the YES side won.
Covering all your bases?

If you remember I actually voted Yes and don't recollect threatening to leave at any stage - however if you have documentary evidence !!!

 

[WestCoast]

Well you won't have to move very far as it is likely if the UK as a whole votes to leave the EU and Scotland as an entity does not than this will trigger another Referendum and Scotland will in all probability Vote yes to Independence this time.

Provided we are permitted to remain within the EU we may let you in

Like Ireland, could one theoretically acquire Scottish nationality by way of a parent born in Scotland and Scottish family going back generations?

 

[radamfi]

If there continues to be freedom of movement between Ireland and the UK then one could move there and acquire Irish nationality after living there for 5 years.

 

[Tetchytyke]

Northern Irish people are allowed to become citizens of the Republic of Ireland, under Irish law, and the Scots could of course choose to do something similar. There's nothing under UK law preventing dual nationality- I have dual citizenship with Australia- and there's plenty of precedent with Irish independence.

I'm very much undecided about this vote as, quite simply, I don't feel there's enough access to enough information to truly understand the implications. The conversation is being dominated and led by the anti-EU lot, who are spending too much time on unimportant matters like "sovereignty" and immigration and not enough time on the actual real-life implications of leaving.

The anti-EU lot seem to be claiming that everything would be the same as always. We'd get all the benefits of the EU- free trade, free movement (for us)- but none of the responsibilities of paying for it. I can't help but think that's a very fanciful position to take; it's not often one gets to have the milk for free without buying the cow first.

My gut instinct is to remain inside the EU, mostly because I think it would be a very bitter and messy divorce. There are quite a few things about the EU that I have big misgivings about, but I think we probably get more than we put in.

I'm certainly very concerned that the level of debate seems to be at "the Poles are stealing your job and your benefits". I'd like some genuine reassurance from the anti-EU lot that there will still be a job if we left. I'm not convinced.

I would like to see the various debates spend more time covering our sovereignty, our borders, migration and how only our elected government retains control over laws that are appropriate to the UK.

I wouldn't, as I consider most of those issues largely irrelevant to whether we should be inside or outside the EU. There's no such thing as true sovereignty in a globalised world: just look at google and Starbucks' tax affairs. And the real bete noire for the anti-EU lot- the Human Rights Act- was a UK law implemented by a UK government with no outside interference (and, in any case, is irrelevant as the ECHR and the EU are not the same organisation).

 

[radamfi]

The anti-EU lot seem to be claiming that everything would be the same as always. We'd get all the benefits of the EU- free trade, free movement (for us)

In other forums I come across, I don't see anti-EU people saying that we would retain free movement while the rest of the EU will lose their free movement to come to the live/work in the UK. At best, they tend to say that if you've got skills or money then you can go anywhere. Generally speaking, they aren't bothered about losing the ability to go abroad, as they don't want to anyway, and if other British people lose out, then they couldn't care less.

There is a slight precedent in that Switzerland imposed immigration caps from the EU, with lower caps from poorer countries as a result of a referendum. The Swiss kept their ability to live in the EU but the EU did retaliate in a few, relatively minor ways. The most notable was to block Swiss students from taking part in the Erasmus student exchange scheme.

This forum does seem to be overwhelmingly pro-EU compared to most places!

 

[Tetchytyke]

Generally speaking, they aren't bothered about losing the ability to go abroad, as they don't want to anyway, and if other British people lose out, then they couldn't care less.

It's amazing how many people I see who are ex-pats living in Spain who think that we should leave the EU. I can't help but think that some of those people are in for a shock if we do.

That said, the Manx and the Channel Islanders seem to manage to get around OK without being in the EU. I wonder how the UK leaving would affect those people.

I'm not pro-EU but I'm not anti-EU; I genuinely don't feel that I know enough to make an informed decision either way.

 

[radamfi]

That said, the Manx and the Channel Islanders seem to manage to get around OK without being in the EU. I wonder how the UK leaving would affect those people.

There is an article here:

http://www.bailiwickexpress.com/jsy/news/jerseys-relationship-eu-out-our-hands/#.VrIJxFWLTnA

It says:

Most Islanders enjoy freedom of movement within the union although those classed as ‘Channel Islanders’ – who do not have a parent or grandparent who was born in the UK or have not lived in the UK for the past five years – have a stamp in their passport preventing them working in EU countries without a permit.

I wonder how many Channel Islanders have a parent or grandparent from the UK and can therefore apply for a full UK passport? I wouldn't be surprised if that was a large percentage of the population.

 

[crehld]

I'm not pro-EU but I'm not anti-EU; I genuinely don't feel that I know enough to make an informed decision either way.

I think this nicely hits the nail on the head. Knowledge of the EU, how it works and what it means for us as a country is considerably lacking in this country. The substance of the deal or the wider implications of being in or out of the EU do not matter to the various in / out campaigns. Most of the discussion on the EU in this country is ill-informed and bears very little resemblance to the reality of EU politics. The fact is it is very complex, and despite numerous attempts made the vast majority simply don't care about the mundane facts of how the EU's political system works (or our own national political system for that matter) or how national member states interact with the EU institutions. It's why the discussion gets bogged down in irrelevant, but nevertheless passionate, rhetoric on sovereignty, immigration, benefits, etc. Key questions, such as our influence in Europe and the world, our economic prosperity are notably absent from the debate, and when they are discussed what is presented as fact is often a value laden warped version of reality designed to win people over to a cause (either in or out).

It's for this reason I'm against there being a referendum at all. We are getting a group of people, the vast majority of whom have no knowledge whatsoever, to decide the future direction of this country and it scares me. Meanwhile our political leaders, the people appointed to make these decision for us and who can drawn on the wealth of advice and legal expertise offered by civil servants and others, absolve themselves from the consequences of making a decision. It points to a lack of resolve and a lack of guts among our political leadership.

I don't like, it but there is a referendum. I will be voting to stay in simply because I believe it is in this country's national interest (and also my own personal interest) to do so and the way to ensure the UK maintains as much influence in the world as is possible in today's world and secures its economic future. It is, in my mind, the patriotic thing to do. I make that decision based on over 10 years as an academic whose dedicated his working career to studying the institutional structures of the EU. But very few people have had the same opportunities as I have had. Even despite this experience and knowledge, I still cannot contemplate the huge risks associated with leaving, and so in someway I lack the necessary knowledge to make a fully informed choice!

 

[Robertj21a]

This forum does seem to be overwhelmingly pro-EU compared to most places!

Interesting that you say that. I've been reading a number of other sources of data and general queries about the EU, the discussions and the vote. There appeared to be an overwhelming number of people quite adamant that they had now decided to vote for Brexit. On here it seems that the opposite applies !

 

[crehld]

Interesting that you say that. I've been reading a number of other sources of data and general queries about the EU, the discussions and the vote. There appeared to be an overwhelming number of people quite adamant that they had now decided to vote for Brexit. On here it seems that the opposite applies !

Looking at a range of opinion polls will reveal the public is evenly split between staying in and leaving the EU (some have it marginally in favour to leave, others show marginal support to stay in - these margins are always negated by the margin of error attached to opinion polling). What is significant is the sizable proportion of respondents who say they've yet to make their mind up. It has been said most of those undecided will simply stick with the status quo, but there's absolutely no way of telling that until the results of the referendum come in!

 

[Robertj21a]

I'm very much undecided about this vote as, quite simply, I don't feel there's enough access to enough information to truly understand the implications. The conversation is being dominated and led by the anti-EU lot, who are spending too much time on unimportant matters like "sovereignty" and immigration and not enough time on the actual real-life implications of leaving.

I would have said that the debate is being led by the Prime Minister and those in favour of staying in the EU, I certainly wouldn't say that it's dominated by the anti-EU groups (though they clearly have some support from the newspapers).

Sovereignty and immigration are *not* unimportant to many Brits and if it's routinely ignored then it will only help the Brexit campaign.

 

[DarloRich]

I would have said that the debate is being led by the Prime Minister and those in favour of staying in the EU, I certainly wouldn't say that it's dominated by the anti-EU groups (though they clearly have some support from the newspapers).

Sovereignty and immigration are *not* unimportant to many Brits and if it's routinely ignored then it will only help the Brexit campaign.

However the importance attached to sovereignty and immigration, often by people with limited understanding of both issues, is greater than that attached to other issues which have a direct day to day influence on people in this country.

BTW what is a Brexit?

 

[crehld]

I would have said that the debate is being led by the Prime Minister and those in favour of staying in the EU, I certainly wouldn't say that it's dominated by the anti-EU groups (though they clearly have some support from the newspapers).

I'd disagree with this. Most of the media coverage (acorss all formate) yesterday and today has been, to my mind, disproportionately dominated by Eurosceptics and those criticizing the prime minister's deal. The BBC (which in an independent study was found to give Eurosceptic view points significantly more air time) was supposed to be covering Prime Ministers questions earlier but cut the coverage short for an interview with Nigel Farage!!

But I guess the fact some see the debate being led by the pro-EU lobby and others see it being led by the anti-EU lobby is probably a sign that no one is leading the debate at all.

 

[Tetchytyke]

I would have said that the debate is being led by the Prime Minister and those in favour of staying in the EU, I certainly wouldn't say that it's dominated by the anti-EU groups (though they clearly have some support from the newspapers).

I'd disagree, as the debate goes wider than politicians. The two biggest-selling newspapers in the UK are in favour of leaving the EU. And Nigel Farage still seems to get an awful lot of TV coverage for a man whose party has one solitary MP.

Sovereignty and immigration are *not* unimportant to many Brits and if it's routinely ignored then it will only help the Brexit campaign.

Truth be told, I'd say much of the conversation around immigration is economic. People perceive that the Poles are stealing their jobs and would, understandably, prefer the Government to stop them doing it. All that makes sense.

It'll be a bit of a pyrrhic victory if leaving the EU, who are our biggest trading partners, solves the problem of immigrant workers by creating mass unemployment.

I'd like to see the anti-EU lot actually deal with the potential economic repercussions of leaving the EU- both positive and negative- rather than going "tra-la-la everything will carry on as normal".

 

[radamfi]

Oddschecker.com is showing "stay" to be about 1/3 and "leave" to be about 9/4, so the bookies are leaning more towards "stay" than the opinion polls suggest.

 

[Robertj21a]

I'd disagree, as the debate goes wider than politicians. The two biggest-selling newspapers in the UK are in favour of leaving the EU. And Nigel Farage still seems to get an awful lot of TV coverage for a man whose party has one solitary MP.



Truth be told, I'd say much of the conversation around immigration is economic. People perceive that the Poles are stealing their jobs and would, understandably, prefer the Government to stop them doing it. All that makes sense.

It'll be a bit of a pyrrhic victory if leaving the EU, who are our biggest trading partners, solves the problem of immigrant workers by creating mass unemployment.

I'd like to see the anti-EU lot actually deal with the potential economic repercussions of leaving the EU- both positive and negative- rather than going "tra-la-la everything will carry on as normal".

Speaking purely personally, I'd be very happy to have any of the Polish workers stay over here. All those that I've dealt with have been highly professional, hard working and with a tremendous grasp of the English language (indeed, much better than many Brits). Sadly, many are returning to Poland now that the economy and lifestyle have improved.

 

[WelshBluebird]

Truth be told, I'd say much of the conversation around immigration is economic. People perceive that the Poles are stealing their jobs and would, understandably, prefer the Government to stop them doing it. All that makes sense.

Ahhh but at the same time they are also stealing all of our benefits too!
Basically to these people, immigrants cannot win. Either they are stealing jobs, or they are here doing nothing when they should be working.
Because of that, to me at least the conversation isn't economic, it is simply xenophobic.

I would have said that the debate is being led by the Prime Minister and those in favour of staying in the EU, I certainly wouldn't say that it's dominated by the anti-EU groups (though they clearly have some support from the newspapers).

Except that:
1 - We wouldn't even be having the referendum if it wasn't for the anti EU groups, so to a large extent it is being led by them as it wouldn't exist otherwise.
2 - I'd say the anti EU groups have a lot more than just "some" support from the newspapers.

Sovereignty and immigration are *not* unimportant to many Brits and if it's routinely ignored then it will only help the Brexit campaign.

It isn't really that they are unimportant, it is just that some of the benefits of being in the UK are more important IMO.

 

[radamfi]

Is it wise for Cameron to be so enthusiastically supporting the "stay" campaign? I realise he negotiated a settlement but he could have said, "I've done the best I can. I think this is quite a good deal but I'm open-minded. It is up to you, the people, to make your own decision." If the vote goes the other way, it is going to be pretty embarrassing for him. Maybe he'll even have to quit as leader and prime minister?

He must be pretty sure there'll be a vote to stay in the EU.

 

[Domh245]

BTW what is a Brexit?

British Exit. Much like Gr(eece)exit, just a shorter way of mentioning the scenario in which Britain leaves the EU.

 

[Xenophon PCDGS]

British Exit. Much like Gr(eece)exit, just a shorter way of mentioning the scenario in which Britain leaves the EU.

Is this to cater for those with a progressive need for cognitive understanding of basic English and for the benefit of those who take delight in such lessening of the language?

When I first saw the "word" "bustitution", I immediately thought that a reference to a breast enlargement operation was about to be discussed....:roll:

 

[NSEFAN]

He must be pretty sure there'll be a vote to stay in the EU.

I wish I shared his confidence. The Sun has been quite forward with its desire for an "out" result. If the Sun decides the next prime minister then I can also believe that the Sun decides the outcome of the referendum.

When I first saw the "word" "bustitution", I immediately thought that a reference to a breast enlargement operation was about to be discussed....

Careful, you'll bring that banner advert back with words like that

 

[crehld]

Is this to cater for those with a progressive need for cognitive understanding of basic English and for the benefit of those who take delight in such lessening of the language?

When I first saw the "word" "bustitution", I immediately thought that a reference to a breast enlargement operation was about to be discussed....:roll:

People have been developing such contractions and linguistic shortcuts since the telegraph office charged by the letter (and no doubt long before).

 

[yorksrob]

It makes perfect economic sense to do this. Support the economic development of less well off nations and regions so they can be come a fully participating member of the single market. Everyone's a winner. Indeed, for much of the UK's membership to the EEC/EU it has been a net receiver from rather than a net contributor to, the EU budget, as it has been supported by significant investment through various EU regional policy programmes, bankrolled by other EU member states. As another poster said it's not just a one way street. And besides calculations over net gains and benefits never take into account economic prosperity generated through EU membership, nor do they consider the more qualitative benefits stemming from recognizing that in a globalized economy it is better to conduct ones foreign and international economic policy in an influential bloc rather than go it alone.

As I've understood it, the UK has almost always been a net contributor to the EU budget. This has traditionally been as a result of our much lesser draw on the common agricultural policy (even with the rebate) and latterly the shift of subsidies towards Eastern Europe. The graph on p9 below seems to bear this out:

http://www.parliament.uk/briefing-papers/SN06091.pdf

That said, I'm not against contributing towards an EU budget (rather I believe we should highlight our contributions in any negotiations). If anything, the fact that someone other than our over-centralised Government in Westminster holds some of the purse strings is a bonus, as it means that as a country we can spend some of our own money outside of the Government of the day's own narrow set of priorities.

In truth though, whilst I do believe that we need to reform our relationship with the EU, it is a great pity that the Prime Minister hasn't sought a greater political consensus within this country. He should be negotiating on behalf of the whole country, not the Tory party.
--- old post above --- --- new post below ---

I understand the sentiment, but as I argued above, it is not possible to have an economic free trade area without including elements considered 'political' to make it work. If you want to maintain control over your key industries and areas of economic activity then actually a free trade area really isn't the thing for you and you'd be better off trying to isolate your economy and protect home grown industries from the rest of the world through protectionist measures (which of course would either be ineffective when operating in a capitalist global economy or simply be economic suicide).

Alas, I fear that many in the EU's institutions have fallen for a lot of right of centre flannel, hook, line and sinker. The countries of Western Europe managed their public services perfectly well for the half a decade after WW2 and managed to enjoy prosperity without the western economic system collapsing.

 

[Bevan Price]

Well you won't have to move very far as it is likely if the UK as a whole votes to leave the EU and Scotland as an entity does not than this will trigger another Referendum and Scotland will in all probability Vote yes to Independence this time.

Provided we are permitted to remain within the EU we may let you in

There has only recently been a referendum on Scottish independence. I very much doubt that any UK government will agree to recognise a new referendum every couple of years until SNP gets the result it wants.

 

[Tetchytyke]

Is it wise for Cameron to be so enthusiastically supporting the "stay" campaign

Cameron said he wouldn't stand for a third term. Assuming he was telling the truth (which, admittedly, is a long shot with him) then I'd safely say he doesnt give a stuff.

 

[Busaholic]

And Nigel Farage still seems to get an awful lot of TV coverage for a man whose party has one solitary MP.

Who are not even on speaking terms.

 

[WessexEclectic]

Alas, I fear that many in the EU's institutions have fallen for a lot of right of centre flannel, hook, line and sinker. The countries of Western Europe managed their public services perfectly well for the half a decade after WW2 and managed to enjoy prosperity without the western economic system collapsing.

Privatising national assests is a great way to reduce national control over them. The symbiosis between the EU and large corporations is well known. If you can get other people to do your bidding, so much the better...