Southeastern Franchise: Extension granted for minimum 18 months

[MikeWh]

But Crossrail isn’t currently open...

For goodness sake!

No one has said that it is. The whole discussion is whether people will switch to XR at Abbey Wood when it is open.

You seem to assert that very few, if any, people who commute from Crayford or Bexley will switch to rounders and XR when it is open. As someone who lives in Crayford I beg to hold a different view. As I know a couple of people who work at Canary Wharf and commute from either Bexley or Crayford, I have said that I'll ask them whether they are likely to be tempted to switch to XR when it is open. You've annoyed me so much now that I'm going to make a point of messaging them to get an answer before I next see them face to face.

 

[ComUtoR]

For goodness sake!

No one has said that it is. The whole discussion is whether people will switch to XR at Abbey Wood when it is open.

Of course they will.

 

[ComUtoR]

“exploring options to boost capacity as additional rolling stock becomes available, ”

707s incoming :-P

Yes, when SWR can release them. Might no longer be possible within this extension.

I can confirm 707s incoming :/

 

[4-SUB 4732]

Oh, my apologies I didn't grasp that. In that case I'm afraid I don't know if VIC-DFD services were extended at the time with the North Kent Gillingham services.

They weren't. I think it was Summer Saturday and 4 car 365...

 

[4-SUB 4732]

For goodness sake!

No one has said that it is. The whole discussion is whether people will switch to XR at Abbey Wood when it is open

You seem to assert that very few, if any, people who commute from Crayford or Bexley will switch to rounders and XR when it is open. As someone who lives in Crayford I beg to hold a different view. As I know a couple of people who work at Canary Wharf and commute from either Bexley or Crayford, I have said that I'll ask them whether they are likely to be tempted to switch to XR when it is open. You've annoyed me so much now that I'm going to make a point of messaging them to get an answer before I next see them face to face.

Without being too hung up on semantics, "Well we'll see. In fact I have a couple of friends who do that very commute from Crayford and Bexley so I'll ask them when I'm next in touch." would potentially be interpreted as you saying you know people who already commute from Crayford and Bexley on the Rounder towards Abbey Wood. I'm sure I won't be alone in taking that interpretation.

 

[4-SUB 4732]

Of course they will.

But unlikely from the south of the LB Bexley where it is agreed that poor North<>South connectivity will create a barrier. The definite beneficiaries are Charlton<>Deptford stops where vast numbers of people from Erith, Belvedere and Woolwich to the City and West End will change habits; and less so (maybe 15-25%) Barnehurst/Bexleyheath/Welling commuters (who live more to the north of those stations and use them for the frequency and range of destinations) who will free up but their space will be taken by all the new Kidbrooke and Lewisham mob.

 

[brad465]

I can confirm 707s incoming :/

Has stabling space been decided for them, or is that still in planning do you know (if they're coming in addition as opposed to replacing something else)?

 

[ComUtoR]

I only read that they are coming over. No further details as yet.

 

[brad465]

Sounds fair, depending on where they might be lining up they've got the rest of this year at least to come up a solution.

 

[MikeWh]

would potentially be interpreted as you saying you know people who already commute from Crayford and Bexley on the Rounder towards Abbey Wood. I'm sure I won't be alone in taking that interpretation.

Perhaps I jumped to conclusions, though I felt it pretty clear that I was talking about an existing commute that might benefit from the new line. I apologise for my reaction in any case.

But unlikely from the south of the LB Bexley where it is agreed that poor North<>South connectivity will create a barrier.

Well, my two friends are definitely interested. Thier current commute (when it returns) is a 24 minute journey from Crayford to Lewisham and a 16-20 minute journey on the DLR to Canary Wharf (their timings before they knew what I was asking about). This will be replaced by a 20 minute journey to Abbey Wood and an 11-12 minute journey on Crossrail. I thought one of them started at Bexley but it turns out she drives from Joydons Wood to Crayford as she can park at her Mums.

One aspect she raised was cost, but I assured her that it'll still be a zone 2-6 journey so the same price. She can even go via Dartford as long as she doesn't leave the station, for when a rounder is cancelled. I'll agree that from Albany Park onwards the time saving shrinks and the cost potentially might go up, but I maintain my assertion that there will be some interest from both Bexley and Crayford, very much the south of the LB Bexley.

 

[ComUtoR]

Well, my two friends are definitely interested. Thier current commute (when it returns) is a 24 minute journey from Crayford to Lewisham and a 16-20 minute journey on the DLR to Canary Wharf (their timings before they knew what I was asking about). This will be replaced by a 20 minute journey to Abbey Wood and an 11-12 minute journey on Crossrail. I thought one of them started at Bexley but it turns out she drives from Joydons Wood to Crayford as she can park at her Mums.

Its never just about how long the journey is. I'd agree that cost is a big factor but as you point out, not deliberately, human behaviour will drive peoples journey too. SE Metro is at peak capacity and many hate the crush. Offering them an alternative that might take them slightly out the way but get a seat or a comfortable journey will push people onto Crossrail. Same with their journey cross town. Some commuters really despise it. Chuck in reliability and you start to stack reasons why people will make a choice.

I also wonder what the impact of the timetable will be. Journey times are important but your arrival time at your destination more so.

If your walk from the station is more convenient then you may shift your journey accordingly.

Also, and I keep making this point, Crossrail isn't just about commuters.

 

[4-SUB 4732]

Its never just about how long the journey is. I'd agree that cost is a big factor but as you point out, not deliberately, human behaviour will drive peoples journey too. SE Metro is at peak capacity and many hate the crush. Offering them an alternative that might take them slightly out the way but get a seat or a comfortable journey will push people onto Crossrail. Same with their journey cross town. Some commuters really despise it. Chuck in reliability and you start to stack reasons why people will make a choice.

I also wonder what the impact of the timetable will be. Journey times are important but your arrival time at your destination more so.

If your walk from the station is more convenient then you may shift your journey accordingly.

Also, and I keep making this point, Crossrail isn't just about commuters.

Interesting point re: walking to stations and such. I used to work in Aldgate, and I would walk to Barnehurst (5 mins), get one of admittedly many trains to London Bridge (sometimes three trains in 20 minutes, so about a 10 minute maximum gap for the Victoria trains, journey time 30 minutes) and then walk to Aldgate. But, when it rained or snowed I'd then feel inclined to go to Cannon Street and take the Tube, as the No. 40 bus (or whatever it was) from London Bridge would be unreliable in traffic. Effectively, my journey time any which way was about 55 minutes.

If I was doing that now, I'd look to walk to the end of my road and drop onto a 301 bus that I know would come at certain times (e.g. 0723, 0733) with a journey time of 15 minutes maximum in morning traffic over West Heath. Assuming some walking time, spare time for any delays and getting on the train at Abbey Wood I'd now be looking at a journey time from door to Abbey Wood of 23 minutes or so; and then a train to Liverpool Street taking 17 minutes. I've now got 15 minutes in hand, and a 5 minute walk left. The trains will be newer, it will be fresh to go every 5 minutes from Abbey Wood at high peak and I'll have a seat. On the way home, if I do have to stand on Southeastern it's at least 30 minutes; but on Crossrail its 17 minutes and it's air-conditioned. Plenty going for Crossrail, and the 301 bus won't be a major issue on the way home as the bulk of traffic after midday is from 1515 - 1630 around Bexleyheath and Abbey Wood for school mobs. At about 6pm, it's not actually too bad.

But, my journey would not be the same for people just on the other side of the railway line near Barnehurst station itself. They would see the walk to the 301 bus go up from 4 minutes to 9 minutes, and they'd also find that on a rainy morning they'd rather sprint to Barnehurst and get on a train and have done with it. I'm sure some journeys won't even be repeated in future 5 days a week: it will be entirely dependent on a multitude of factors. Rain, amazingly, will clearly be one...

 

[DynamicSpirit]

Well, my two friends are definitely interested. Thier current commute (when it returns) is a 24 minute journey from Crayford to Lewisham and a 16-20 minute journey on the DLR to Canary Wharf (their timings before they knew what I was asking about). This will be replaced by a 20 minute journey to Abbey Wood and an 11-12 minute journey on Crossrail. I thought one of them started at Bexley but it turns out she drives from Joydons Wood to Crayford as she can park at her Mums.

That's a very long journey time to Abbey Wood which I'm sure is significantly inflated by the time the trains spend parked at Slade Green en route (though the slow speed between Crayford and Slade Green doesn't help). I'm not sure to what extent it would be possible to remove that wait at Slade Green, but once Crossrail is running there would certainly be more reason to try to recast the timetable to sort it out. At the moment I would guess there's very little incentive to do so because so few people pass through Slade Green on the rounders anyway.

I imagine that, once Crossrail was running, removing the long wait at Slade Green could have some impact on the numbers of people from Bexley/Crayford and also from Barnehurst choosing to commute via Abbey Wood + Crossrail.

EDIT: My other comments about the train destination info have been moved to this new thread, Woolwich/Sidcup Rounders: What Destination Should They Show?

 

[HH]

Has stabling space been decided for them, or is that still in planning do you know (if they're coming in addition as opposed to replacing something else)?

No stock is being replaced, although some may effectively be "mothballed", as they can't really use all the units.

 

[hwl]

No stock is being replaced, although some may effectively be "mothballed", as they can't really use all the units.

With 707s arriving mothballing a number of 466s (Angel) would make a lot of sense as 2x 707 (Angel) will take a lot more people and have better dwell times than a 10 car of 2x 465 + 1x 466 (and have the SDO advantage of being theoretically able to run on Victoria - Dartford). Then use as many of the surplus 465s to run more 12 car as 3x465. (/2 and /9 are also Angel and less reliable than Eversholts /0 & /1)

 

[4-SUB 4732]

With 707s arriving mothballing a number of 466s (Angel) would make a lot of sense as 2x 707 (Angel) will take a lot more people and have better dwell times than a 10 car of 2x 465 + 1x 466 (and have the SDO advantage of being theoretically able to run on Victoria - Dartford). Then use as many of the surplus 465s to run more 12 car as 3x465. (/2 and /9 are also Angel and less reliable than Eversholts /0 & /1)

707s will probably be mass people movers on the Woolwich and Hayes lines, deliberately so because 465s won't SDO and also the Woolwich line is becoming somewhat unacceptable at peak. In theory, some peak services to Victoria will cope with 5/376s, which would also help as it would punch shed loads of 465s out for 12-car formations for Sidcup, Grove Park and Bexleyheath line stuff.

 

[ComUtoR]

(and have the SDO advantage of being theoretically able to run on Victoria - Dartford).

You still need to overcome the parking problem at Victora.

 

[Mikey C]

Isn't it going to make the SE metro services even more messy with THREE completely unrelated type of unit operating services, with the 465s, 376s and 707s?

 

[hwl]

You still need to overcome the parking problem at Victoria.

Only at P3&4 and there will still be plenty of 8 car Bromley South / Orpington services (unless the the penny drops with several key poeple that many of the via Herne Hill platforms are actually around 9car length especially if you don't need to align with door monitors on platforms.

 

[ComUtoR]

(unless the the penny drops with several key people that many of the via Herne Hill platforms are actually around 9car length especially if you don't need to align with door monitors on platforms.

Operational length is quite different to actual length.

 

[brad465]

It's not just 10 car Networkers that have capacity issues that would be improved with either 10 car 707s or 12 car Networkers, but Victoria and Blackfriars have plenty of 6 car Networkers in the peaks on Rochester and Sheerness services that would benefit from becoming 8 car. There maybe platform length issues on the Sheerness branch, but everywhere through to Rochester can do 8 without SDO.

Only at P3&4 and there will still be plenty of 8 car Bromley South / Orpington services (unless the the penny drops with several key poeple that many of the via Herne Hill platforms are actually around 9car length especially if you don't need to align with door monitors on platforms.

Is there not a problem with a train longer than 8 cars calling at Brixton in the down direction blocking the previous junction?

 

[4-SUB 4732]

It's not just 10 car Networkers that have capacity issues that would be improved with either 10 car 707s or 12 car Networkers, but Victoria and Blackfriars have plenty of 6 car Networkers in the peaks on Rochester and Sheerness services that would benefit from becoming 8 car. There maybe platform length issues on the Sheerness branch, but everywhere through to Rochester can do 8 without SDO.

Is there not a problem with a train longer than 8 cars calling at Brixton in the down direction blocking the previous junction?

In theory, unless you simply accept it in the train planning rules and hope a 10 car doesn’t fail there and a train load of people from Bexleyheath / Medway way to Victoria are there.

Reality is that Orpington / Bromley > Victoria trains even at peak aren’t quite loaded enough to warrant 10 car. The now regular half-hourly service from Beckenham to Blackfriars is very helpful in moving people also, so you’re looking at upwards of 48 coaches of peak capacity from Beckenham to London. Plenty.