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Southeastern Maidstone - Blackfriars 2022.

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4-SUB 4732

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4tph to Maidstone is quite an improvement, and one does wonder what the resultant calling pattern will be for them all between Bromley South/Swanley and Maidstone/Ashford. If I was doing it I'd have 2tph semi-fast minimum between Bromley South and Maidstone, either BMS-SAY-OTF-BRG-WMA-MDE, or if they wanted to be pre-2009 nostalgic skip all but West Malling and Maidstone East (although inc. BMS given they're not Cannon St starters). The semi-fast bit could be split one each between the Blackfriars and Victoria services. There's also the question of whether for the Ashford one they'll keep the semi-fast alternating pattern, where 1tph is semi-fast west of Maidstone and the other 1tph semi-fast east, or make one all stations throughout and the other semi-fast throughout, or both all stations east of Maidstone.

Are there any ideas on what rolling stock allocations will be available for these extra Maidstone services? Assuming the 377s retain their sub-lease at SE, 707s probably won't be able to do any without toilets, which means it'll be down to Networkers and 375s. The former might see increased availability for this line as the stopping Chatham Mainline services being cut were/are Networker dominated (although 375s do exist for some services). However they'd have to be 6-car max unless platform lengthening at Barming and Kemsing is made to 8 cars (or skip them on such allocations), but then again a doubling in service frequency might mean they don't have to be longer than 6 if the Ashford ones remain 8 car dominated.

I suspect you’ll see the Blackfriars will be St Mary Cray, Swanley, Otford, all stations every 30 minutes.

Victoria I suspect is Swanley, Otford, Borough, West Malling, Maidstone.
 
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43074

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Trying to answer all points here:

- The 2022 Timetable will see the Maidstone East service (Southeastern replacement for Thameslink) still run even on Sundays; but on Sunday it runs via the Chislehurst loops and Grove Park to London Bridge and then Cannon Street or Charing Cross at bidder discretion. This is every 30 minutes.

- During the Monday to Saturday period, however, it will operate via Catford (which therefore only has to accommodate a fast path every 30 minutes during off-peak, which is perfectly adequate) to Blackfriars.

- The Victoria to Ashford stays at 30-minutely via Herne Hill; albeit fast from Victoria to Bromley South.

- Once Thameslink have sorted themselves out and got the Welwyn to Sevenoaks running, that means Southeastern effectively have free use of the two bay platforms. A half-hourly Maidstone, half-hourly Beckenham additional Metro service and I strongly suspect a half-hourly Blackfriars to Medway are likely. I don’t see the peak Medway extras being from Victoria but I would like to be surprised.

- Victoria to Lewisham will be half-hourly from May 2022, all day. Half-hourly to Hayes and at least Crayford via Sidcup each. So Victoria to Denmark Hill will be very reasonably satisfied. So will Denmark Hill and Peckham to Lewisham.

- I do not suspect the peak services from Victoria / Blackfriars to Medway will stop at anything other than Denmark Hill (maybe Elephant if using Blackfriars); but the Blackfriars to Maidstone I suspect will be Elephant and Denmark Hill all day. Two major reasons: one, the draw on Hospitals and interchange to LO; two, the fact that not-stopping simply adds a few minutes of recovery time and the same passing time at Shortlands as you’ll catch an Orpington / Sevenoaks anyway.

- Hayes will have 6tph at peak. 2tph Victoria, 4tph Charing Cross. All Charing Cross peak services are fast to/from Ladywell. So only half-hourly at Lewisham, which is in my view a huge shame. Same for the Sidcup line. There will be in 2022 no Sidcup terminating services. All 10tph run at least to/from Crayford; and only the 2tph to Victoria run via Lewisham! The 4tph to both Cannon Street and Charing Cross are fast from Hither Green; although it is expected the Cannon Street services will stop at New Cross.
With respect if this is from the 2017 tender documents I would suggest they are no longer worth the paper they are written on, not least because of Covid but also they are almost 5 years out of date. Had the franchise been awarded in the end perhaps it would be different, but the consensus at the time was that the timetable spec in those documents doesn't work anyway.
 

4-SUB 4732

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With respect if this is from the 2017 tender documents I would suggest they are no longer worth the paper they are written on, not least because of Covid but also they are almost 5 years out of date. Had the franchise been awarded in the end perhaps it would be different, but the consensus at the time was that the timetable spec in those documents doesn't work anyway.
That we know they are proceeding with this timetable.
 

Horizon22

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Trying to answer all points here:

- The 2022 Timetable will see the Maidstone East service (Southeastern replacement for Thameslink) still run even on Sundays; but on Sunday it runs via the Chislehurst loops and Grove Park to London Bridge and then Cannon Street or Charing Cross at bidder discretion. This is every 30 minutes.

Sounds reasonable although the Thameslink plan was of course for it to run 24/7 via Chislehurst and onto London Bridge and Blackfriars. Wonder if the Maidstone crowd would be okay with London Bridge no long being served M-F.

- During the Monday to Saturday period, however, it will operate via Catford (which therefore only has to accommodate a fast path every 30 minutes during off-peak, which is perfectly adequate) to Blackfriars.

If it replaces the Gillingham train pathing via the Catford loop then it is indeed fine; if its additional that's another matter.

- Once Thameslink have sorted themselves out and got the Welwyn to Sevenoaks running, that means Southeastern effectively have free use of the two bay platforms. A half-hourly Maidstone, half-hourly Beckenham additional Metro service and I strongly suspect a half-hourly Blackfriars to Medway are likely. I don’t see the peak Medway extras being from Victoria but I would like to be surprised.

The original intention was always for the Sutton services to go into the bays to prevent the crossover outside Blackfriars but the locals kicked up a fuss about that. This whole plan is reliant on Thameslink evacuating the bays of course, so this is all null and void if it never happens, but I suspect in the next 12 months we should see how close to reality that is. An additional metro to the bay in Beckenham or Bromley South will cause some capacity problems at Herne Hill so I can't imagine that works even on paper.

- Victoria to Lewisham will be half-hourly from May 2022, all day. Half-hourly to Hayes and at least Crayford via Sidcup each. So Victoria to Denmark Hill will be very reasonably satisfied. So will Denmark Hill and Peckham to Lewisham.

Why would they bin the via Blackheath and go via Sidcup instead? Is it for Lewisham conflict purposes? And I presume you are talking about off-peak here?

- I do not suspect the peak services from Victoria / Blackfriars to Medway will stop at anything other than Denmark Hill (maybe Elephant if using Blackfriars); but the Blackfriars to Maidstone I suspect will be Elephant and Denmark Hill all day. Two major reasons: one, the draw on Hospitals and interchange to LO; two, the fact that not-stopping simply adds a few minutes of recovery time and the same passing time at Shortlands as you’ll catch an Orpington / Sevenoaks anyway.

Yes probably one or the other although Southeastern have lots of oddities in their peak timetable so we shouldn't assume anything.

Hayes will have 6tph at peak. 2tph Victoria, 4tph Charing Cross. All Charing Cross peak services are fast to/from Ladywell. So only half-hourly at Lewisham, which is in my view a huge shame. Same for the Sidcup line. There will be in 2022 no Sidcup terminating services. All 10tph run at least to/from Crayford; and only the 2tph to Victoria run via Lewisham! The 4tph to both Cannon Street and Charing Cross are fast from Hither Green; although it is expected the Cannon Street services will stop at New Cross.

Again Southeastern run lots of peak oddities that do or don't skip Lewisham where they traditionally wouldn't or would. For example some Sevenoaks - Charing X services stop at Lewisham in the peak and don't off-peak running fast after Hither Green. Same with Hayes services. There aren't any Sidcup terminating services now, expect I think 2 in the peak.

I sincerely doubt there would be that much of a reduction in Lewisham services, especially at the peak. That being said its an exceedingly tight peak timetable around New Cross & Lewisham, so it could do with some reevaluation and whatever is decided it will likely reduce "all routes to all destinations" so will annoy people

Once again, I'm not entirely sure this is all set in stone with the turbulence in the rail sector at the moment and the interlink with Thameslink here and the declining importance of various long-since forgotten tender documents.
 

brad465

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If it replaces the Gillingham train pathing via the Catford loop then it is indeed fine; if its additional that's another matter.
It works, however from experience when trains go towards Victoria they take much longer because they easily catch a Thameslink that doesn't get out of its way until Denmark Hill. This hasn't been a problem heading away from Victoria, but from memory VIC-BMS is 23 mins, but at least 30 mins in the opposing direction (this is all timetabled in). As such it's usually been sensible for Chatham Mainline stopper passengers to get off at Bromley and wait for the next fast, which gets to VIC first.
Again Southeastern run lots of peak oddities that do or don't skip Lewisham where they traditionally wouldn't or would. For example some Sevenoaks - Charing X services stop at Lewisham in the peak and don't off-peak running fast after Hither Green. Same with Hayes services. There aren't any Sidcup terminating services now, expect I think 2 in the peak.
I suspect Sidcup terminators will remain when weekend engineering work prevents London trains going beyond Sidcup towards Dartford. If they do extend all the peak Sidcup terminators further down the line then I wonder if the siding could be setup as a carriage siding, which would otherwise spend most of its time redundant on a network where stabling is a premium?
 

Kite159

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It works, however from experience when trains go towards Victoria they take much longer because they easily catch a Thameslink that doesn't get out of its way until Denmark Hill. This hasn't been a problem heading away from Victoria, but from memory VIC-BMS is 23 mins, but at least 30 mins in the opposing direction (this is all timetabled in). As such it's usually been sensible for Chatham Mainline stopper passengers to get off at Bromley and wait for the next fast, which gets to VIC first.

Made worse since Thameslink via Catford Loop increased to 4tph?
 

Horizon22

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I suspect Sidcup terminators will remain when weekend engineering work prevents London trains going beyond Sidcup towards Dartford. If they do extend all the peak Sidcup terminators further down the line then I wonder if the siding could be setup as a carriage siding, which would otherwise spend most of its time redundant on a network where stabling is a premium?

It's used nicely in the peak to send a service to Sidcup, terminate, shunt set to the carriage siding, sits there for a while and comes back out empty to London to then form a Tunbridge Wells service. The Sidcup services have two benefits - 1) a nice benefit during peak to cater for high flows on the line and 2) as a carriage siding. The only time constraint is staff to lock up the train at Sidcup whilst services rapidly approach from the rear as it blocks the line.

I can't see Southeastern not making use of this siding going forward with space being at such a premium as you say. Security is probably a concern with sets being say left overnight. Sure the 465 will turn up with a lovely load of grafitti in the morning!
 

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Lots to unpick here!

I was wondering about the Welwyn half of the Maidstone. So this will be an additional Sevenoaks frequency? Or twinned to a Kentish Town?

I think you mean Victoria-Lewisham quarter-hourly? If so that's great. Will there be any issues pathing that increase through Brixton? Would all 4 services call at Nunhead? And all Thameslink for that matter? It would have 4tph to each of Victoria and Blackfriars - pretty great service.

Medway - if Victoria, could this not be 12 car in theory? Whereas Elephant and Denmark Hill are limited to 8? Blackfriars of course is fine with 12, but I think any SE service out of Blackfriars really needs another inner call for demand, it's just not going to be as busy as Victoria or LB etc...

Hayes - isn't it just half-hourly to Lewisham as it stands today?
The Sidcup line frequencies are good, but only 2tph to Lewisham does seem low. The connections at New Cross for the ELL will be ok, but just 2tph feeding the DLR isn't great. Whereas the Greenwich line has everything calling at Greenwich (and will have Crossrail + Woolwich Arsenal DLR!)

Welwyn to Sevenoaks was only ever planned to run in the peaks, as off-peak these services don’t run in the GN half. This means that (unless the Welwyn services are made all-day, and I don’t think demand is ever going to justify that) the Sevenoaks services will need to terminate in London during the off-peak. Whether that means Blackfriars bays or extended somewhere else like Kentish Town or West Hampstead is of course something that could be varied in the future, though Blackfriars bays is the obvious one as this doesn’t then conflict with the rest of the core.

Blackfriars already operates in a way it wasn’t designed for, due to the 4tph Sutton services running into the core - though this doesn’t seem to be causing too much of an issue in practice.
 

30907

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Why would they bin the via Blackheath and go via Sidcup instead? Is it for Lewisham conflict purposes? And I presume you are talking about off-peak here?
Minimising movements over the scissors crossing AIUI - hence the novel (and rather odd) Hayes to Victoria idea.

Again Southeastern run lots of peak oddities that do or don't skip Lewisham where they traditionally wouldn't or would. For example some Sevenoaks - Charing X services stop at Lewisham in the peak and don't off-peak running fast after Hither Green. Same with Hayes services. There aren't any Sidcup terminating services now, expect I think 2 in the peak.

I sincerely doubt there would be that much of a reduction in Lewisham services, especially at the peak. That being said its an exceedingly tight peak timetable around New Cross & Lewisham, so it could do with some reevaluation and whatever is decided it will likely reduce "all routes to all destinations" so will annoy people.
The problem isn't Lewisham towards London, but suburbs to Lewisham for DLR: current services are every 20min am and 22 pm, do you increase them to every 15 or reduce to every 30? The conflicting movements issue (including Tanners Hill) pointed to every 30.
 

Horizon22

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Minimising movements over the scissors crossing AIUI - hence the novel (and rather odd) Hayes to Victoria idea.


The problem isn't Lewisham towards London, but suburbs to Lewisham for DLR: current services are every 20min am and 22 pm, do you increase them to every 15 or reduce to every 30? The conflicting movements issue (including Tanners Hill) pointed to every 30.

No issue with reducing conflicting Lewisham movements, but to do so at the expense of an actually useful service somewhat defeats the point. As for the DLR point, there's still plenty of central and City workers from Charing X and Cannon St who are arguably as important as the Canary Wharf crowd and probably with equal numbers.
 

whoosh

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I'm a bit confused that all this has come from a 2017 document. One that was written before the Thameslink 2018 timetable meltdown and deferment (and further deferments) of the Cambridge to Maidstone through service.
 

Horizon22

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I'm a bit confused that all this has come from a 2017 document. One that was written before the Thameslink 2018 timetable meltdown and deferment (and further deferments) of the Cambridge to Maidstone through service.

Yes a few people have mentioned that on this thread, and I'm not sure of anything further coming forward but it might be some part of internal conversations some place.
 

4-SUB 4732

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Welwyn to Sevenoaks was only ever planned to run in the peaks, as off-peak these services don’t run in the GN half. This means that (unless the Welwyn services are made all-day, and I don’t think demand is ever going to justify that) the Sevenoaks services will need to terminate in London during the off-peak. Whether that means Blackfriars bays or extended somewhere else like Kentish Town or West Hampstead is of course something that could be varied in the future, though Blackfriars bays is the obvious one as this doesn’t then conflict with the rest of the core.

Blackfriars already operates in a way it wasn’t designed for, due to the 4tph Sutton services running into the core - though this doesn’t seem to be causing too much of an issue in practice.

Quite right re: Thameslink trains terminating at Blackfriars from Sevenoaks off-peak, but bay capacity exists. The Beckenham additionals and, from the greatest available presumption using the ITT TSR, peak services towards Medway will take its place. That means southeastern use the two bay platforms for 6tph at peak - very easy.

Minimising movements over the scissors crossing AIUI - hence the novel (and rather odd) Hayes to Victoria idea.


The problem isn't Lewisham towards London, but suburbs to Lewisham for DLR: current services are every 20min am and 22 pm, do you increase them to every 15 or reduce to every 30? The conflicting movements issue (including Tanners Hill) pointed to every 30.

And yet Charing Cross services from Bexleyheath are still 6tph using the flat crossover!

The simple answer is it’s not a problem to use crossovers, you just need to time them effectively and start giving decent running and recovery time on approaches to make right time presentation far more likely.

Sidcup, Orpington and Hayes lines all reducing to 2tph even at high peak to/from Lewisham will not be appreciated.

No issue with reducing conflicting Lewisham movements, but to do so at the expense of an actually useful service somewhat defeats the point. As for the DLR point, there's still plenty of central and City workers from Charing X and Cannon St who are arguably as important as the Canary Wharf crowd and probably with equal numbers.
But the theory of it is that the trains go via Lewisham and provide two extremely useful functions:
1) Those trains do continue to the same London terminals.
2) Have you seen Lewisham and it’s passenger usage? Good god.
 
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brad465

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Made worse since Thameslink via Catford Loop increased to 4tph?
Quite likely, the Chatham Mainline stopper running via Denmark Hill pre-dates the Catford Loop service pattern increase, I believe the former came in around 2015 and the Thameslink increase was 2018.
It's used nicely in the peak to send a service to Sidcup, terminate, shunt set to the carriage siding, sits there for a while and comes back out empty to London to then form a Tunbridge Wells service. The Sidcup services have two benefits - 1) a nice benefit during peak to cater for high flows on the line and 2) as a carriage siding. The only time constraint is staff to lock up the train at Sidcup whilst services rapidly approach from the rear as it blocks the line.

I can't see Southeastern not making use of this siding going forward with space being at such a premium as you say. Security is probably a concern with sets being say left overnight. Sure the 465 will turn up with a lovely load of grafitti in the morning!
What security increases would be needed? There's already a fence between the siding and the main field next to it, I suppose some barbed wire on it and some CCTV in the area will help that, otherwise it's making sure trespassing out of the station towards the siding is difficult.
 

4-SUB 4732

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A Thameslink ‘all stopper’ takes 19.5 mins to operate between Crofton Road Jn (between Denmark Hill and Peckham Rye) and Shortlands Jn.

If we assume they pass Crofton Road at xx00, xx15, xx30 and xx45 in an even interval pattern, and pass Shortlands Jn therefore with an additional 0.5m performance allowance at xx20, xx35, xx50 and xx05, you can easily accommodate a fast path every 15 minutes from Victoria (critical point) via the Atlantic lines crossing Crofton Road three minutes before (xx57, xx12, xx27 and xx42) and not getting to Shortlands Jn until xx06, xx21, xx36 and xx51. With a whole 1.5m pathing and performance allowance therefore you can create four fast paths. If it comes from Blackfriars, it will likely occupy similar paths as a Cambria Jn passing time is going to only be 3 mins ahead of the Thameslink anyway.

You can also happily accommodate 4tph between Victoria and Lewisham between a Thameslink and the following fast; and even a bit of freight. That said, the freight needs to be carefully timed as it would affect fast paths if it goes towards the Channel Tunnel.
 

brad465

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A Thameslink ‘all stopper’ takes 19.5 mins to operate between Crofton Road Jn (between Denmark Hill and Peckham Rye) and Shortlands Jn.

If we assume they pass Crofton Road at xx00, xx15, xx30 and xx45 in an even interval pattern, and pass Shortlands Jn therefore with an additional 0.5m performance allowance at xx20, xx35, xx50 and xx05, you can easily accommodate a fast path every 15 minutes from Victoria (critical point) via the Atlantic lines crossing Crofton Road three minutes before (xx57, xx12, xx27 and xx42) and not getting to Shortlands Jn until xx06, xx21, xx36 and xx51. With a whole 1.5m pathing and performance allowance therefore you can create four fast paths. If it comes from Blackfriars, it will likely occupy similar paths as a Cambria Jn passing time is going to only be 3 mins ahead of the Thameslink anyway.

You can also happily accommodate 4tph between Victoria and Lewisham between a Thameslink and the following fast; and even a bit of freight. That said, the freight needs to be carefully timed as it would affect fast paths if it goes towards the Channel Tunnel.
I imagine it's slightly slower in the down direction than the up because of the 30mph speed restriction alongside and embankment between Nunhead and Crofton Pk (dropping from 55mph IIRC), which it would be nice if they get round to removing. In numerical time there may not be a major time saving but on a high frequency line it's more significant. This maybe more difficult but there may also be capacity slack possible if Nunhead jct saw a small improvement in line speed for Lewisham services (20/25mph from memory) so the junction can be cleared quicker, but this is all speculative.
 

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Any changes to routes via tonbridge in that document? Thanks

From memory, a rise to 8tph off peak.
- 2tph from London to Hastings which are mandated to be fast from London Bridge to Tonbridge each way.
- 2tph from London to Ashford and beyond, likely to be Sevenoaks, Tonbridge and fast to Ashford.
- 2tph from London to Tunbridge Wells, calling Orpington, Sevenoaks, Hildenborough etc.
- 2tph from London to Ashford (unlikely beyond) calling Orpington, Sevenoaks, Tonbridge and all stations.
 

brad465

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From memory, a rise to 8tph off peak.
- 2tph from London to Hastings which are mandated to be fast from London Bridge to Tonbridge each way.
- 2tph from London to Ashford and beyond, likely to be Sevenoaks, Tonbridge and fast to Ashford.
- 2tph from London to Tunbridge Wells, calling Orpington, Sevenoaks, Hildenborough etc.
- 2tph from London to Ashford (unlikely beyond) calling Orpington, Sevenoaks, Tonbridge and all stations.
The increase through to Ashford will be welcome, however I thought the fast service was going to call at Paddock Wood?
 

4-SUB 4732

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The increase through to Ashford will be welcome, however I thought the fast service was going to call at Paddock Wood?

you are right - I wasn’t paying enough attention.

The Medway Valley, interestingly, goes 2tph and all go to Tonbridge. They only truncate to Paddock Wood if they can prove its impossible to path them at peak.
 

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... hence the novel (and rather odd) Hayes to Victoria idea.
It's pretty mad to be honest. Kent House - Brixton - Lewisham - Clock House is almost an equilateral triangle so anyone from the Clock House area would surely use Kent House instead. Anyone wanting Victoria from Hayes to Elmers End would surely take the tram to East Croydon, and others might change at Catford and Denmark Hill. Ladywell is pretty much the only station which might benefit from use of a Victoria service.
 

4-SUB 4732

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It's pretty mad to be honest. Kent House - Brixton - Lewisham - Clock House is almost an equilateral triangle so anyone from the Clock House area would surely use Kent House instead. Anyone wanting Victoria from Hayes to Elmers End would surely take the tram to East Croydon, and others might change at Catford and Denmark Hill. Ladywell is pretty much the only station which might benefit from use of a Victoria service.

It’s all about causing a deliberate decline in the passenger usage. Makes a case then for revitalising the line with Bakerloo line trains (“Oh if we have the Bakerloo line we get our Charing Cross connections back”).
 

43074

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Yes a few people have mentioned that on this thread, and I'm not sure of anything further coming forward but it might be some part of internal conversations some place.
I would be very surprised if any of this does happen in May 2022, especially given the shift to work from home bought about with Covid. Where is the justification for any of these additional trains if a large chunk of Southeastern's demand is no longer there but working from home 3 days a week?
 

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I would be very surprised if any of this does happen in May 2022, especially given the shift to work from home bought about with Covid. Where is the justification for any of these additional trains if a large chunk of Southeastern's demand is no longer there but working from home 3 days a week?
Work from home might increase the off-peak demand rather than decrease it.
 

4-SUB 4732

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I would be very surprised if any of this does happen in May 2022, especially given the shift to work from home bought about with Covid. Where is the justification for any of these additional trains if a large chunk of Southeastern's demand is no longer there but working from home 3 days a week?
The serious supposition will be:
- People will still require the peak frequency, even if the train load is 8 car rather than 12 car.
- Shoulder peak and off peak is likely to improve slightly, as people flex their work and create more leisure time (or go into work say 0700-1500 or 1100-1900 to suit).
- What linkage many of these trains provide outside of London is still important.
 

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Not sure the Kent County Council will like the reduction in service on the Chatham Mainline. The recent consultation document that can be downloaded wants services on that line speeded up and increased. Not slowed down and decreased!

https://kccconsultations.inconsult.uk/consult.ti/kentrailstrategy2021/consultationHome#:~:text=We are consulting on the,increased demand for the service.
Well as has been stated already, they can't really moan.

Longfield and Meopham get a half-hourly, regular service to London off-peak, and the addition of another half-hourly service at peak. Longfield and Meopham used to only get the half-hourly stopper anyway, and off-peak loading certainly doesn't warrant 3tph.

Quite honestly, this is pushing people onto HS1 by stealth as they are so often only half-full on a 6 car anyway off-peak. I get it, they need people to fill them up and pay their extra. But it is a shame that on a line of the historical rapidness of the Chatham Main, that it is being relegated to almost "loop line" status.

Also, I can tell that strategy and report are written by absolute amateurs. Hopeless, all of it.
 
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In my experience - pre covid - many of the 6 car 395s were pretty full even off peak, and this would only make the situation even worse. Especially with the amount of house building happening along this mainline. There are thousands and thousands of new homes being built from Rochester to Faversham. But time will tell.
 

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But the theory of it is that the trains go via Lewisham and provide two extremely useful functions:
1) Those trains do continue to the same London terminals.
2) Have you seen Lewisham and it’s passenger usage? Good god.

On the NR or DLR side? Yes I've seen both and it's a lot (with narrow platforms on the NR side) hence I don't think reducing peak calling at Lewisham on either side is a good plan.

Quite likely, the Chatham Mainline stopper running via Denmark Hill pre-dates the Catford Loop service pattern increase, I believe the former came in around 2015 and the Thameslink increase was 2018.

What security increases would be needed? There's already a fence between the siding and the main field next to it, I suppose some barbed wire on it and some CCTV in the area will help that, otherwise it's making sure trespassing out of the station towards the siding is difficult.

I don't know but seeing as plenty of trains in more secure locations get the grafitti treatment, its something to be considered. Not saying it can't be an easy fix but if it's a longer term aim to stable overnight, then some additional measures might be needed.
 

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It's pretty mad to be honest. Kent House - Brixton - Lewisham - Clock House is almost an equilateral triangle so anyone from the Clock House area would surely use Kent House instead. Anyone wanting Victoria from Hayes to Elmers End would surely take the tram to East Croydon, and others might change at Catford and Denmark Hill. Ladywell is pretty much the only station which might benefit from use of a Victoria service.

I was going to say this myself, even Lower Sydenham travellers would be better heading to Penge East where it takes 18 mins to get to Victoria, plus Catford travellers only have to get a train to Nunhead and change there, this service seems very circuitous and duplicates in sections the Penge East line, though I do get the rationale.

My next thought on this is this document dates from 2017, when South Eastern were still set to get a new franchise (it’s since been extended to 2024) and before Covid, working from home will remain at least on a 2 day a week basis will surely remain for years to come, not to mention people leaving London; though this has died down in recent months, I can see post lockdown people will probably move further out, so is this document still valid anymore?

It was weird because although the idea is to reduce conflict moves at Lewisham there still appeared to have 4tph off peak from Bexleyheath making that conflict move to get to Charing Cross while the Woolwich line would lose all its CX services, seems to be a redundant move, either have 2tph Woolwich to CX or no CX trains from Blackheath at all, would better to have Bexleyheath as Cannon Street and reroute the Thameslink Rainham via Blackheath, saves duplicating a Greenwich line Cannon Street service
 
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