Storm Babet disruption - Friday 20/10

[MikeWM]

I have to say that the weather forecast for today was so bad so long ago that I would have been in favour of much more in the way of precaution to try and limit what we are seeing right now in England.

I'm not sure - it seemed pretty bolted-on at the start of the week that Aberdeen/Perth/Dundee were going to see an awful time of it from rainfall, but the impact on England has changed from forecast to forecast, and very hard to tell where (if anywhere) would be severely affected until it was pretty much too late to do much about it.

eg. The Met Office declared a 56-hour yellow warning for Cambridgeshire on Tuesday (when the total rainfall here was forecast to be just 8mm here over the whole storm!) - they then withdrew that warning entirely as the forecast evolved, and only late yesterday put back a yellow warning for today. (In the end I'm not sure how much rain we've had, but it is about as wet as I can remember around here, certainly more than 8mm!)

And yet Ely southwards seems to be running fine. Even the line to Kings Lynn seems to be working well, and that's usually the first thing to fall over when the weather gets a bit rubbish.

 

[Ken H]

1450 is running 9 late at Ribblehead, and is to be canned at Skipton (According to Real Time Trains)
Skipton - Bradford trains running, and some Bradford Interchange trains running to Leeds so there is workaround
Not raining that hard round Settle, and the Ribble river level gauges are all well below flood levels.
Think we got away with it round here TBH

 

[LickeyIncliner]

Does anyone know what the problem is between Peterborough and Leicester, please? And whether there is any chance of westbound services operating later this afternoon...

 

[bspahh]

eg. The Met Office declared a 56-hour yellow warning for Cambridgeshire on Tuesday (when the total rainfall here was forecast to be just 8mm here over the whole storm!) - they then withdrew that warning entirely as the forecast evolved, and only late yesterday put back a yellow warning for today. (In the end I'm not sure how much rain we've had, but it is about as wet as I can remember around here, certainly more than 8mm!)

The Cambridge Computer Lab has recorded 20mm of rain since midnight

https://www.cl.cam.ac.uk/weather/data/daily-text/2023_10_20

The prediction at https://www.wxcharts.com/ for Ely is 16mm rain today

 

[londonmidland]

Does anyone know what the problem is between Peterborough and Leicester, please? And whether there is any chance of westbound services operating later this afternoon...

I believe there’s flooding at multiple locations along the route. No idea when or if the line will re-open today.

 

[LickeyIncliner]

I believe there’s flooding at multiple locations along the route. No idea when or if the line will re-open today.

Thanks!

 

[DaveB10780]

Well as many, many roads are closed not sure how you expect the crew to get anywhere.
If you need an investigation, best you have a word with him upstairs !
Its not like this was out of the blue, its been forecast for ages, and eveyone knew travelling anywhere may well ne impossible
At least you were not on the aircraft that skidded off the runway in the bad weather
A second red alert has been issued by the Met Office too now !

I do not think that is quite true for South Of Glasgow/Edinburgh but further North for the red warnings. West coast looked like it would be OK and no warnings were at start of day for TPE or Avanti. The problem started with broken down freight trains initially.

 

[bramling]

I'm not sure - it seemed pretty bolted-on at the start of the week that Aberdeen/Perth/Dundee were going to see an awful time of it from rainfall, but the impact on England has changed from forecast to forecast, and very hard to tell where (if anywhere) would be severely affected until it was pretty much too late to do much about it.

eg. The Met Office declared a 56-hour yellow warning for Cambridgeshire on Tuesday (when the total rainfall here was forecast to be just 8mm here over the whole storm!) - they then withdrew that warning entirely as the forecast evolved, and only late yesterday put back a yellow warning for today. (In the end I'm not sure how much rain we've had, but it is about as wet as I can remember around here, certainly more than 8mm!)

And yet Ely southwards seems to be running fine. Even the line to Kings Lynn seems to be working well, and that's usually the first thing to fall over when the weather gets a bit rubbish.

Here in Hertfordshire there hasn’t been much rain at all, though looking at the radar we seem to have very much dodged a bullet, as we’ve been very slightly west of the rain area all day, which doesn’t seem to have moved much at all.

 

[HST43257]

It’s at the point where TOC websites would be better listing trains that actually are running rather than everything affected.

 

[Narrowgauge725]

I know we are o it a little line but Heatherslaw Light Railway in Northumberland is shut due to flooding and high wind. Second day and looks like tomorrow will be a washout. Hoping that the flooding hasn’t caused too much damage. 9am check if the River Till has subsided.

 

[MikeWM]

The Cambridge Computer Lab has recorded 20mm of rain since midnight

https://www.cl.cam.ac.uk/weather/data/daily-text/2023_10_20

I've not trusted the readings from that for ages, it seems a lot less maintained and accurate than it was say 10 years ago.

The prediction at https://www.wxcharts.com/ for Ely is 16mm rain today

The various local stations on Weather Underground (wunderground.com) are reporting between 35 and 45mm accumulation, which feels more accurate to me. (Apart from one reporting 0mm, which I assume is broken Obviously many places northwest of here have had considerably more than that.

Looks like the rain has now stopped in Cambridge, and should be stopping here within the hour.

 

[1D54]

Does anyone know what the problem is between Peterborough and Leicester, please? And whether there is any chance of westbound services operating later this afternoon...

Flooding at Oakham.

16:00 CBG-BHM is currently on the move westbound 31 minutes late passing Manea.

 

[InkyScrolls]

All Leeds to Skipton (and vice versa) services cancelled.

 

[Bletchleyite]

It’s at the point where TOC websites would be better listing trains that actually are running rather than everything affected.

A fair bit still is. I think TOCs are deliberately being quite dramatic so people don't head out in it and get stuck - they're effectively just aiming to shift people already out as much as possible.

 

[LowLevel]

A fair bit still is. I think TOCs are deliberately being quite dramatic so people don't head out in it and get stuck - they're effectively just aiming to shift people already out as much as possible.

Certainly the East Midlands is totally stuffed and at least one taxi recovering stranded traincrew has ended up submerged in floodwater with them having to walk out in waist deep flood water and abandon the car.

It's been absolutely horrendous today.

 

[Bletchleyite]

I have to say that the weather forecast for today was so bad so long ago that I would have been in favour of much more in the way of precaution to try and limit what we are seeing right now in England.

It seems pretty clear that from the levels of rainfall that were expected that there would be massive problems and that is exactly what has happened.

There is a difference between giving up immediately and realising that things are just not going to be workable - Now we have all these people stuck and a situation that is only going to get worse as the night progresses.

I am due to travel to London on Sunday for work on Monday...we will see what happens between now and then.

People's employers are not always that understanding, nor insurers, nor hotels etc. The only way to make that really viable would be to effectively declare a lockdown when a red warning is issued. By which I don't mean "thou shalt not leave the house or go round thy mate's house" COVID style, but rather mandatory business closures etc so people can't be pressured to work and hotels etc would have to refund.

I suspect however this would not be popular, and it would mean many other issues, so we are where we are. If people need to travel for reasons they can't just opt out of, then they have to at least try.

Replies here please: https://www.railforums.co.uk/threads/how-should-forecast-weather-disruption-be-handled.256482/

 

[D1511]

I'm interested to see what happens at Preston, where my Avanti service to Edinburgh is terminating today. Doesn't look like I'll be getting home tonight

 

[Dan G]

Its really not unprecedented, there have been plenty of storms that have seen massive amounts of flooding. Its not a good situation this week, but there has been much worse.

Care to name one?

 

[Wivenswold]

Its really not unprecedented, there have been plenty of storms that have seen massive amounts of flooding. Its not a good situation this week, but there has been much worse.

From a meteorological point of view the set-up is unprecedented, today is not the end of it, the jet stream looks as though it's going to continue to throw low pressure after low pressure at us for at least another 10 days.
Aberdeenshire is forecast to have another 100mm of rain in the next 5 days, West Yorkshire and Derbyshire too. That's on top of what's fallen today. Much of the UK will have another month's worth of rain by the middle of the week.


Edit - river monitoring stations showing excessively high water now at 648 from 520 three hours ago.

 

[InOban]

I do not think that is quite true for South Of Glasgow/Edinburgh but further North for the red warnings. West coast looked like it would be OK and no warnings were at start of day for TPE or Avanti. The problem started with broken down freight trains initially.

And now a tree has blown over near Lockerbie and brought the wires down

 

[londonmidland]

I'm interested to see what happens at Preston, where my Avanti service to Edinburgh is terminating today. Doesn't look like I'll be getting home tonight

Unfortunately Avanti are not expecting to run any more services to Scotland today due to a fallen tree causing substantial damage to the OLE in the Lockerbie area.

 

[Busaholic]

Good explanation here for all the names being used this year - https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-67135325 - even if this particular one is a bit weird!

'Babette's Feast' was quite a well-known film about thirty years ago, Babette being a French name afaik. This Babet is certainly having a feast, regrettably!

 

[aar0]

Here in South Wales not a single GWR service has left the country! Mine is aiming to be the first, within the hour, but only as far as Bristol Temple Meads. Hopefully they decide it can carry on through…

 

[Purple Train]

Ah, just the millennial view ...

Any self-respecting millennial will, like me, have read the Thomas the Tank Engine story involving Harold the helicopter...

I'm hoping this doesn't go on for too long as I'm travelling from up north to Devon soon and have, possibly slightly foolishly, booked the scenic route via the Welsh Marches. Though that seems like, if the weather patterns are anything like today's, that's more sensible than going the direct way through Sheffield and Derby... Travelling up north will be fun as well, think I dodged a bullet not doing that today!

 

[Rhinojerry]

My friend took his neighbours to starion to go to Wigan then Glasgow..brought them back and they are going to drive it.
Hopefully the roads will be okay.

 

[Falcon1200]

Trains to Neilston suspended because of a fallen tree at Whitecraigs.

There has, thankfully, been no rain today in the West of Scotland, however it has been and still is, very windy. National Rail Enquiries saying no Neilston trains for the rest of the day;

Incident: Neilston | National Rail

Buses replace trains to / from Neilston . Find details of all current incidents on National Rail Enquiries.

www.nationalrail.co.uk

A tree has fallen and damaged the overhead electrical wires in the Whitecraigs area. Network Rail are on site but the repairs are expected to continue for the remainder of the day and the line will remain closed.

 

[43055]

Ironically the 1645 Derby to Stoke bus is still running with all the trains being stopped since 0900.

The brook near me has risen a lot over the last 2 hours with most of the fields now flooded.

 

[D1537]

LNER are running again. 1S26 1700 King's Cross-Edinburgh left 15 late and has passed Welwyn. Meanwhile, 1E07 0830 Edinburgh King's Cross is still going and has just passed Hitchin a mere 308 minutes late.

Looks like hourly to Edinburgh till at least 1900 and a 1903 to Leeds is also showing.

 

[AlastairFraser]

My friend took his neighbours to starion to go to Wigan then Glasgow..brought them back and they are going to drive it.
Hopefully the roads will be okay.

Weather was OK in Preston, a few delays but nothing serious and no flooded roads near home. Nothing too terrible encountered heading towards Manchester down the Atherton line now (advances via Wigan to Mcr)
I haven't heard anything bad about the M6 either.

If anyone knows what's going on with the inspection of the Buxton line, the information would be welcome too.

 

[johntea]

Literally non stop rain here in West Yorkshire today, to the extent I'm surprised ANY services are managing to run in the first place!

The weather certainly seems to be compensating for those extra few brighter days we got this year!