Storm Doris Thursday 23rd - Major disruption on some routes

[bb21]

I have no idea how South West Trains managed the disruption so cannot comment.

I did note yesterday GN were simply telling people there had been trees on the line and to put in Delay Repay claims. Obviously they thought their handling of the situation was fine (unlike their customers) so no need to apologise.

Maybe they could already foresee that their apologies would be dismissed as being "cheap".

So why bother?

 

[al78]

I guess it just shows that despite advances in weather forecasting, it's still not possible to be right all of the time.

The Met Office forecast for Doris was excellent. The forecast was for 70-80mph gusts and an amber warning from the midlands to northern England, and yellow warnings south and north of this for 50-70 mph gusts. This was forecast several days in advance, and is pretty much what we got. The highest recorded gust was around 93mph at Capel Curig, but that weather station is at altitude, so is not representative of the low lying populated areas. The south of England was outside the core winds of the storm and 60-70 mph gusts were the norm here.

Return periods for the peak gusts at weather stations across England and Wales ranged from a 1 year return period up to about a 10 year return period, with most weather stations where peak gust data was available from the Met Office website recording gusts that corresponded to a 1 or 2 year return period.

 

[edwin_m]

The Met Office forecast for Doris was excellent. The forecast was for 70-80mph gusts and an amber warning from the midlands to northern England, and yellow warnings south and north of this for 50-70 mph gusts. This was forecast several days in advance, and is pretty much what we got. The highest recorded gust was around 93mph at Capel Curig, but that weather station is at altitude, so is not representative of the low lying populated areas. The south of England was outside the core winds of the storm and 60-70 mph gusts were the norm here.

That's interesting - if the winds were as forecast does it mean the railway underestimated the effect on the infrastructure? I think the warning area was moved south to about the northern edge of London was quite a short time before.

 

[infobleep]

I have no idea how South West Trains managed the disruption so cannot comment.

I did note yesterday GN were simply telling people there had been trees on the line and to put in Delay Repay claims. Obviously they thought their handling of the situation was fine (unlike their customers) so no need to apologise.

If so, shows how different the two companies are.

 

[infobleep]

Not sure what they can do. In Anglia MOMs, p'way and OHL teams were pretty much going from incident to incident as they happened, as soon as they cleared one tree another three had fallen. Same with OHL, wires came down at Mellis, OHL attended, before they'd even finished there they were dispatched to go from there right on to a de-wirement at Lakenham.

In certain situations I do think someone should have the balls to just say "STOP", get trains that are on the move to a suitable staffed station and stop the job until the problems are properly sorted.

How would they locate the fallen trees without sending trains out to find them or does one wait until storm had died down before sending trains further forward?

 

[westv]

Plenty of operators amended their services on the Thursday but did any suggest travelling on the Wednesday rather than Friday?

 

[Bletchleyite]

Plenty of operators amended their services on the Thursday but did any suggest travelling on the Wednesday rather than Friday?

I *think* LM did.

 

[dk1]

How would they locate the fallen trees without sending trains out to find them or does one wait until storm had died down before sending trains further forward?

So many had come down & it was too dangerous for NR staff to access until winds died down. I was at North Walsham & had already worked in excess of 12hrs & even though I offered I was refused permission to do any more shuttles to Sheringham. Road transport was non-existent for several hours. Nothing else for it but to stop the job & hope for clearance work to begin overnight/next morning.

 

[al78]

That's interesting - if the winds were as forecast does it mean the railway underestimated the effect on the infrastructure? I think the warning area was moved south to about the northern edge of London was quite a short time before.

Possibly. The southern counties were under yellow (lowest) warnings.The mid-level amber warnings were in a narrow swathe from the northern half of Wales, across to the east coast covering cities such as Liverpool, Manchester, Sheffield, just north of Birmingham, and several others. The amber warning did shift southward slightly nearer the time but south of the midlands were in the yellow warning from at least a couple of days before. I don't know if one factor which contributed to the disruption was that the autumn and winter up until last week had been very benign, with no windstorms affecting England, which means there was plenty of old/dead wood on the trees ready to be blown down. I don't know what threshold the railway uses when deciding to cancel services, I guess it is a combination of expected peak gusts and probability of occurrence.

 

[CentralTrainer]

Going back to information screens and systems - I was travelling through Cheltenham Spa station yesterday and noticed something I'd not seen before elsewhere.

It was a wall mounted information screen - on the left hand side (taking up the majority of the display) was an OpenTrainTimes type screen showing the station lines diagram for Cheltenham, Gloucester and Ashchurch stations and where trains were.

Down the right hand side column was listed the next 10 or so trains to arrive or depart from the station in the RTT format - and also telling us where the train was last reported passing or where it was.

Very good idea and extremely informative

 

[D1009]

Going back to information screens and systems - I was travelling through Cheltenham Spa station yesterday and noticed something I'd not seen before elsewhere.

It was a wall mounted information screen - on the left hand side (taking up the majority of the display) was an OpenTrainTimes type screen showing the station lines diagram for Cheltenham, Gloucester and Ashchurch stations and where trains were.

Down the right hand side column was listed the next 10 or so trains to arrive or depart from the station in the RTT format - and also telling us where the train was last reported passing or where it was.

Very good idea and extremely informative

These are appearing at many GW run stations now, mainly for staff information.

 

[PHILIPE]

These are appearing at many GW run stations now, mainly for staff information.

They can be viewed here:-

http://iris2.rail.co.uk/tiger/

 

[TheEdge]

How would they locate the fallen trees without sending trains out to find them or does one wait until storm had died down before sending trains further forward?

Yes, that is what tends to get done in extreme cases, and it did with Doris. Quite a few first trains ran empty in Anglia as route proving to find those trees and deal with them without the complication of passengers.

 

[96tommy]

Plenty of operators amended their services on the Thursday but did any suggest travelling on the Wednesday rather than Friday?

VTEC did. I was able to use my advance for the Thursday on the Wednesday night instead.

 

[AndrewE]

They can be viewed here:-

http://iris2.rail.co.uk/tiger/

That's useful, thanks. However it's currently showing this for Crewe:

1V58 MNCRPIC CRDFCEN 6 18:08 18:14 18:09 18:14

Last report: At Wilmslow (17:54)
Service delayed due to a problem. at a level crossing

not a lot of level crossings between MNCRPIC and Crewe, maybe a delayed incoming service - except that that one arrived early!

 

[PHILIPE]

That's useful, thanks. However it's currently showing this for Crewe:


not a lot of level crossings between MNCRPIC and Crewe, maybe a delayed incoming service - except that that one arrived early!

Crossing at Wem so incoming service delayed.

 

[D1009]

Crossing at Wem so incoming service delayed.

Eh? When I checked RTT, 1V58 is formed off 1W16, which arrived Picc on time. Going back to the screens on GW stations, I presume GWR have done this in an attempt to address the problem of passengers with smartphones being better informed than the staff at times of disruption. Typically the only source of information available to station staff is in the station office, and if they are in there, they are accused of not being visible and not interested in helping people. If they are attempting to help people, they are not necessarily receiving the up to date information, also if they try to use a smartphone themselves they get accused of playing on it.

 

[PHILIPE]

Blaenau Ffestiniog Branch closed throughout tomorrow due shortage of units. So many under repair according to ATW

 

[Welshman]

Blaenau Ffestiniog Branch closed throughout tomorrow due shortage of units. So many under repair according to ATW

As Llew Jones is already providing the substitute bus service between Blaenau and North Llanrwst, I suppose it's the simplest option for them to continue to Llandudno Junction.

Interestingly, there's no mention on ATW Journey check of 1K21, the 2145 Llandudno to Crewe, which is formed of the Conwy branch 150 as a means of getting it back for maintenance.

 

[PHILIPE]

As Llew Jones is already providing the substitute bus service between Blaenau and North Llanrwst, I suppose it's the simplest option for them to continue to Llandudno Junction.

Interestingly, there's no mention on ATW Journey check of 1K21, the 2145 Llandudno to Crewe, which is formed of the Conwy branch 150 as a means of getting it back for maintenance.

Of course no mention on Journey Check as it's running normally. Nice to see somebody else besides myself posting re the Blaenau Ffestiniog Branch.

 

[175001]

Blaenau Ffestiniog Branch closed throughout tomorrow due shortage of units. So many under repair according to ATW

Not only that but there is a unstable rockface due to a displaced tree near Pont y Pant which might give way and might need to be rectified according to the Daily Post.

 

[PHILIPE]

Not only that but there is a unstable rockface due to a displaced tree near Pont y Pant which might give way and might need to be rectified according to the Daily Post.

See Post #539

 

[EbbwJunction1]

Jan 1976 - ~ 24 dead. Storm at weekend so minimal impact on short/long distance commuting.
Oct 1987 - ~ 22 dead. Storm hit on a Friday night so no-one went anywhere on the Saturday.
Jan 1990 - ~ 100 dead. Storm much more severe than Doris.
Oct 2013 - ~ 5 dead. Storm hit early hours Monday so no-one went anywhere early on Monday.

Can you clarify the casualty figures, especially the one for January 1990, please?

I know that sadly there are deaths when there is bad weather, but they do seem excessive, and I really don't remember them.

Thanks.

 

[tony_mac]

http://news.bbc.co.uk/onthisday/hi/dates/stories/january/25/newsid_3420000/3420797.stm

The trail of destruction from the Isles of Scilly to Denmark left 100 people dead, 47 of them in the British Isles alone

https://web.archive.org/web/20080907191422/http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/education/secondary/students/1987.html

The storm killed 18 people in England and at least four more in France.

 

[eastdyke]

Can you clarify the casualty figures, especially the one for January 1990, please?

I know that sadly there are deaths when there is bad weather, but they do seem excessive, and I really don't remember them.

Thanks.

I took numbers from here:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_natural_disasters_in_Great_Britain_and_Ireland

Just to show that we are perhaps subject to disruption from wind events rather more often than we remember. I have no detailed knowledge of the make up of the numbers or their accuracy. It seems that the ~100 dead in 1990 may include some from across Europe but still a sadly significant number in UK.

 

[Darren R]

Is there any news as to when the Conwy Valley Line is likely to reopen? National Rail Enquiries is still saying "closed until further notice," and updating travel information on a week-by-week basis, but giving no indication of an anticipated timescale for trains replacing buses.

 

[PHILIPE]

Is there any news as to when the Conwy Valley Line is likely to reopen? National Rail Enquiries is still saying "closed until further notice," and updating travel information on a week-by-week basis, but giving no indication of an anticipated timescale for trains replacing buses.

ATW cannot put an estimated date to it yet but saying on their Journey Check not before March 13th which was a week AGO. If Network Rail or ATW can't tell us, I doubt you;ll get a reply on the Forum unless anybody in the know posts some info.

 

[Bletchleyite]

Often with land slips it's necessary to wait for the land to stabilise itself before any work can be done.

 

[physics34]

Can you clarify the casualty figures, especially the one for January 1990, please?

I know that sadly there are deaths when there is bad weather, but they do seem excessive, and I really don't remember them.

Thanks.

i certainly remember the 1990 one. It landed during the day hence the high death toll.

 

[2HAP]

87 dead in 1990
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Burns'_Day_Storm