markymark2000
Established Member
Hypotheticals mean absolutely nothing to me. You can't sit and work out what to do with a route based off a few random figures. Every route has different needs and needs to be dealt with differently. Based off the actual cuts to services listed above (not random hypotheticals, actual cuts listed), you can draw conclusions and categorise them into 'greed', 'self inflicted', 'smart accounting', 'some changes could/should be made before outright cut' or 'genuine, need to cut due to lower usage' or 'fair cut, alternatives available'. Once you start looking at things differently, you start to see that the the majority (not all, must stress, not all bus operators before you start selectively quoting) of bus operators are not making cuts which fit the 'genuine need to cut services due to lower usage' or 'fair cut, alternatives available', most fit under the other categories. Purely to use Trent Barton as an example, they have killed off the 141 over the past year or so with down right shocking reliability and people have simply found alternative ways to get around. This is therefore 'self inflicted'. Their actions have sent passengers away. On the other hand, Spondon Flyer I would say comes under 'changes should be made before cut' as it left a good amount of Spondon without a proper bus service but the fast bit was covered by the Ilkeston Flyer so some changes could have been made to generate new usage while still pushing people onto the Ilkeston Flyer who want the faster journey. Using 1 bus hourly rather than 2 buses every 2 minutes, you've halved the operating costs and trying something different with the route rather than it running fast could have made a difference. Purely 2 examples there. An example of greed would be Arriva Merseyside who are planning to drop an already overcrowded service corridor down from 4 to 2 buses and have those 2 remaining bph plod around another estate when they can already be full and standing with the existing passengers. Cram more and more people onto a bus and then slowly people will move onto other transport modes. But that's ok because they have won a few year tender and that takes priority.Okay @markymark2000 lets imagine some numbers.
Marky Buses has a relatively simple one PVR route which has annual running costs of £100,000. Pre-covid the annual revenue was £110,000, providing you with a fairly respectable £10,000 profit, giving you a +10% margin.
However, you are only currently at 80% of pre-covid passenger/revenue levels, so annual revenue is now down to £88,000, and to compound the problem your costs have risen by 10%, meaning you are now making an annual loss of £22,000, (a -20% margin). You tried putting your fares up by 10%, which resulted in some passenger loss, but did give you a 5% yield, so revenue is now up to £92,400, reducing your losses to £17,600, and now just a -16% margin.
Bearing in mind many bus services across the UK weren’t achieving anything like a 10% margin pre-covid, this is perhaps a generous example!
So, as all the experienced managers in the bus industry always get it wrong, we’d be delighted to hear how the management at Marky Buses will go about turning around this dilemma.
My comments are made as a generalisation from the numerous ones that I have had dealings with. There will be some amazing LTA officers but there are more poor than good. Sorry to say.I think that comment about LTA officers is highly insulting, but I will assume its made through lack of knowledge.
I am sure some LTAs might be like that, but most are running on a much reduced staff, and have been for a number of years. It's not just me saying this, the DfT recognise it too by providing Capacity Funding to LTAs and by setting up a Centre of Excellence under Bus Back Better. And of course, the local political situation also dictates a lot of what officers do. I can think of several things we provide because a prominent councillor tells us to, despite it not being in line with policy.
Even on reduced staff, I expect the people who are employed to at least try and make the bus network as good as it can be and not sit there intentionally killing off routes so that they don't have to fund them in the future. There are even examples on this forum from Citistar showing how shocking some LTAs are and while some of it may be down to the political situation, In my experience, officers aren't even willing to do things that are within their remit and so it's somewhat unsurprising that some councillors will try and take charge and demand things done their way because some officers can't/won't do their job now and why would councils give any more money to a department which has a track record of decline and no potential for growth (least with the current mindset of the council). Transport teams in my local area all just hide away and avoid all contact with the public because they know that it would show them up for how poor they are.
On lower frequency routes it is harder to make cuts but not impossible. Lower frequency routes you're best trying to work with the local community to increase patronage rather than opting straight for cuts (by working with the local community, I mean the local bus users and residents, not councillors as they don't know what local areas need as most of them don't even live in the areas they represent or ignore all communications from their constituents (some good councillors but significantly more bad than good). Your comments on councillors above is interesting too.As for commercial operators "trying it on" some might be, but if you're running an hourly inter-urban service with 3 buses but revenue is about 80% how do you propose cutting that? Fine if you have a dozen buses running a high frequency route, you can cut a bus, or even two, without too many passengers noticing. But companies also need to consider the contribution each route makes to the overheads. You can't cut 20% of a Managing Director, or (rarely) sell off part of a depot because you don't need all of the maintenance pits now.
That explains why First has cut evening buses in some areas. Vandalism is of course a valid reason to cut services but they should be put back after a few months if possible as the situation may have eased.As others have said, costs are rising too. Not just fuel, but one operator has told us that glass prices have gone up 300%. Good luck claiming that back when the locals decide to throw bricks at your evening buses. Other spare parts have also rocketed in price, if they are obtainable.
I know you can't give specific examples but you say about routes only just on the survival line. I then ask of the operators in your area, how many are actively promoting their services to passengers and trying to get new passengers onboard? Not a random social media post which is only seen by existing passengers who may follow them (given on the whole, very few passengers actually follow bus companies on social media) but local, targeted paid advertising. How good is the ongoing reliability and are any changes being communicated well to passengers (where possible via bus stops digital signage where it exists, signs in the bus station and online). Are the buses being provided of a decent quality or just any old shack which looks a state and isn't very comfortable.I hope readers will understand that I don't feel able to give specific examples but in my LTA area, whilst there are a few frequency reductions which will remain in place until driver numbers increase, we don't anticipate any commercial withdrawals, nor any tenders to be handed back. But make no mistake, many routes are only just the right side of the survival line.
Just a few things there which could move the route more away from the survival line and into the safe zone. Many of the passenger reductions and the reason why I believe that numbers are sticking around 80% in some places is due to the shocking service provided by operators. Some routes near me spent 6 months or so with a lot of cancellations but many weren't posted online or if they were, it was quite late on so people just gave up using the bus as it was too unreliable.