Tavistock Re-opening: how should the line be served and could the line be extended beyond Tavistock?

[Irascible]

I agree that the Exe Valley railway would be a great asset today. However, the M5 route does provide access to the east Exeter which is a large employment area. Also, this route does relieve some congestion on the A396, and consequently those who prioritise any future reopening of close railways may deem it to bring fewer benefits than some others.

Tiverton (15 mins driving time in 33 mins to Exeter) is a good example to compare to Tavistock (16 miles in 48 mins to Plymouth). Both trips from Bing Maps at 0850 today.

Nobody would do that though, they'd go down the valley, take the cutoff at Stoke Canon & go round to Pinhoe, it's way quicker - but the traffic ends up in areas that aren't really meant to take traffic. I'm pretty sure - I never got hold of the actual report so i can't say for sure - that the economics of the entire line to Dulverton were looked at rather than Exeter-Tiverton and then Tiverton-Dulverton ( as it was built - it wasn't all built in one go or by the same companies, iirc ). It'd be great if the lower bit was still there ( even better if the few miles to Tiv. Jct was also still there, you could have looped off local trains who weren't going to stop until Exeter anyway ) but it's all academic, there's not a chance of anything being put back. Especially when the actual solution is "move to Cullompton".

I don't think Tavistock has a nearby expanding dormitary town as an alternative?

 

[Xavi]

Nobody would do that though, they'd go down the valley, take the cutoff at Stoke Canon & go round to Pinhoe

Tiverton - Sowton Industrial Estate 25 mins via M5, 32 mins via Pinhoe.

 

[yorksrob]

Mine is not quite a 'reply' but responding along the lines of 'get real' re-openers
The #1 bus for Plymouth to Tavistock is scheduled to take aprox 1h; it runs 3ph and calls at Derriford Hospital.
The 118 bus runs Tavistock to Okehampton in apx 1h; it runs aprox 1ph and calls potentially at lots of little places the 'reopened' railway won't.
The 87 bus Tavistock to Bere Alston takes approx 30 mins; it runs aprox 1ph- occasional trips serve Bere Alston station.
The current train service Plymouth to Bere Alston takes approx 23 mins and runs every 2 hours.
My 1960 BR timetable Table 89 shows Plymouth to Bere Alston aprox 27mins; Bere Alston to Tavistock North 11-14 mins; and Tavistock Nth to Okehampton 31-43 mins. The 8.25am from Plymouth called at Tavistock Nth at 9.00, Okehampton 9.32a/34d, Exeter Central 10.23/ 30 and stns to Waterloo 2.15pm-thus 1h10 Plymouth to Okehampton in 1960; 2h today plus connection time at Tavistock.
Plymouth to Paddington can be done today in 3h; typically 3h10- 3h50 at 2tph.
Okehampton to Exeter takes 35-40 mins on the train today at 1tph.
Exeter to Paddington today in 2h3; typically 2h15 to 2h45.
I cannot believe that spending millions of 'hard-working taxpayers' money' to extend the rails from Bere Alston to Tavistock, let alone on to Okehampton can be justified.

Quoting a load of bus services does not an argument make.

I have a bus service from the end of my road. It is very useful for some short distance journeys, however for longer distance ones, the train is far better, even though it requires a longer walk to the station.

This argument has nothing to do with the relative merits of bus and train services and more to do with the country's inability to put a track through Shillamill tunnel for a reasonable price. If the country can't even manage that, we may as well resign ourselves to third world status now.

 

[zwk500]

This argument has nothing to do with the relative merits of bus and train services and more to do with the country's inability to put a track through Shillamill tunnel for a reasonable price. If the country can't even manage that, we may as well resign ourselves to third world status now.

What is a reasonable price? And how does that breakdown into, e.g., payment rates for the staff?

 

[yorksrob]

What is a reasonable price? And how does that breakdown into, e.g., payment rates for the staff?

The Project Speed principles used on the Okehampton reopening have shown that significant efficiency gains can be made, without being detrimental to workers pay.

These need to be applied to other reopenings.

 

[zwk500]

The Project Speed principles used on the Okehampton reopening have shown that significant efficiency gains can be made, without being detrimental to workers pay.

These need to be applied to other reopenings.

Okehampton already had the track down. This is rather a big thing to have already had paid for.
Comparison to Okehampton is like claiming a house can be built for the price of an extension.

 

[BrianW]

Quoting a load of bus services does not an argument make.

I have a bus service from the end of my road. It is very useful for some short distance journeys, however for longer distance ones, the train is far better, even though it requires a longer walk to the station.

This argument has nothing to do with the relative merits of bus and train services and more to do with the country's inability to put a track through Shillamill tunnel for a reasonable price. If the country can't even manage that, we may as well resign ourselves to third world status now.

I was not seeking to an argument make, but to help inform the arguments of others.
I find it hard to see a significant gain in journey possibilities or times that is worth the expenditure they would require.
It seems to me that people in Okehampton and Tavistock, and places between, are well enough served just now and constrained funds would be better applied elsewhere.
Maybe some unbiased reliable study will show sufficient untapped need for better connection to the national network.

 

[yorksrob]

Okehampton already had the track down. This is rather a big thing to have already had paid for.
Comparison to Okehampton is like claiming a house can be built for the price of an extension.

I imagine Okehampton would have needed a lot of work done for passenger use anyway.

However, the project speed principles should be applicable to any project, regardless of the presence or not of track.

I was not seeking to an argument make, but to help inform the arguments of others.
I find it hard to see a significant gain in journey possibilities or times that is worth the expenditure they would require.
It seems to me that people in Okehampton and Tavistock, and places between, are well enough served just now and constrained funds would be better applied elsewhere.
Maybe some unbiased reliable study will show sufficient untapped need for better connection to the national network.

Okehampton, of course, is already part of the National network, and having knocked the best estimates of usage out of the park, demonstrated that there was a considerable untapped demand. I doubt whether its passengers would have agreed they were "well enough served" before the railway service was resumed.

 

[zwk500]

I imagine Okehampton would have needed a lot of work done for passenger use anyway.

A fair amount of work yes, but a lot less then if it had needed to be built from death.

However, the project speed principles should be applicable to any project, regardless of the presence or not of track.

They are, but please do answer my question - how much should it cost to build a new railway, including getting all the permissions, designs, materials and staff to deliver them?

 

[yorksrob]

A fair amount of work yes, but a lot less then if it had needed to be built from death.

They are, but please do answer my question - how much should it cost to build a new railway, including getting all the permissions, designs, materials and staff to deliver them?

I'm not a contractor or a specifier of railway projects, so am not party to that knowledge.

I do note, however, that the public purse does pay for various sections of by-pass and major road, so I would deem a similar cost per mile to these to be acceptable. Infact, I would consider linking a town to the national railway network to be better value for the money.

 

[zwk500]

I'm not a contractor or a specifier of railway projects, so am not party to that knowledge.

So how can you pass judgement that a better price is available?

I do note, however, that the public purse does pay for various sections of by-pass and major road, so I would deem a similar cost per mile to these to be acceptable.

I think @Bald Rick has noted before that road scheme and rail schemes have broadly comparable costs today.

Infact, I would consider linking a town to the national railway network to be better value for the money.

Some railways will be much better value than some roads but equally some roads will be much better value than some railways.

 

[yorksrob]

So how can you pass judgement that a better price is available?

I think @Bald Rick has noted before that road scheme and rail schemes have broadly comparable costs today.

Some railways will be much better value than some roads but equally some roads will be much better value than some railways.

I can pass judgement because:

A) Project speed principles demonstrate that costs can be brought down and

B) Cost is continually used as a barrier to linking towns and settlements to the National network.

What project is "better value" is itself to an extent a value judgment, and the fact that road schemes seem to be undertaken without anyone raising an eyebrow, whilst sensible schemes to link towns such as Tavistock to the network are forever stalled, demonstrates that the Establishment is making the wrong value judgments.

 

[Xenophon PCDGS]

I have a bus service from the end of my road. It is very useful for some short distance journeys, however for longer distance ones, the train is far better, even though it requires a longer walk to the station.

When you make the comparison above, how are travel arrangements affected when those bus or train publlc transport services are affected by strike action?

 

[zwk500]

I can pass judgement because:

A) Project speed principles demonstrate that costs can be brought down and

You haven't demonstrated how project speed alone does this, other than by pointing to a fundamentally different project.

B) Cost is continually used as a barrier to linking towns and settlements to the National network.

Unless there is a political earthquake, cost is a barrier.

What project is "better value" is itself to an extent a value judgment, and the fact that road schemes seem to be undertaken without anyone raising an eyebrow, whilst sensible schemes to link towns such as Tavistock to the network are forever stalled, demonstrates that the Establishment is making the wrong value judgments.

Nobody raising an eyebrow? The A27 has had more proposals for upgrading than I can remember for the thick end of 40 years, yet it still drops down to single carriageway for significant stretches of Portsmouth to Brighton (2 cities 25 times the size of Tavistock).

 

[yorksrob]

When you make the comparison above, how are travel arrangements affected when those bus or train publlc transport services are affected by strike action?

When the buses are on strike, I use the train for the local journey.

When the trains are on strike, I usually end up getting the bus to the nearest town to get the train (or not travelling at all).

 

[Xenophon PCDGS]

What project is "better value" is itself to an extent a value judgment, and the fact that road schemes seem to be undertaken without anyone raising an eyebrow, whilst sensible schemes to link towns such as Tavistock to the network are forever stalled, demonstrates that the Establishment is making the wrong value judgments.

I wonder how the average daily car use population statistics compares with the average daily use train population statistics in 2023.

 

[yorksrob]

You haven't demonstrated how project speed alone does this, other than by pointing to a fundamentally different project.

Unless there is a political earthquake, cost is a barrier.

Nobody raising an eyebrow? The A27 has had more proposals for upgrading than I can remember for the thick end of 40 years, yet it still drops down to single carriageway for significant stretches of Portsmouth to Brighton (2 cities 25 times the size of Tavistock).

Well, there needs to be a political change in emphasis. Out of similar European countries, we have always undervalued rail/public transport.

In the last ten years there have been hundreds of miles of road built. In this context, connecting Tavistock to the rail network is absolutely justified.

I'm not so concerned about the Brighton - Portsmouth road as the route has an excellent electrified railway.

I wonder how the average daily car use population statistics compares with the average daily use train population statistics in 2023.

I'm not sure that such a comparison would be particularly illuminating. Such a statistic would be skewed by local car journeys doing the school run and the shopping etc.

 

[SynthD]

Did the reopening of Okehampton correctly value the benefits? That cost 40m for a population about half of Tavistock. Do you want to allocate more than 80m for this project, is this the first time in the country that we should start with a woolly method of determining worthy spending?

 

[Xavi]

Did the reopening of Okehampton correctly value the benefits?

No, it undervalued the benefits.

 

[Bald Rick]

However, the project speed principles should be applicable to any project, regardless of the presence or not of track.

What do you think the Project SPEED principles are, and what did it mean for Okehampton?

 

[yorksrob]

What do you think the Project SPEED principles are, and what did it mean for Okehampton?

They meant it got built.

That's what matters over flannel.

 

[zwk500]

They meant it got built.

That's what matters over flannel.

Are you able to say for sure it was Project SPEED and not, for instance, monumental political pressure?

 

[yorksrob]

Are you able to say for sure it was Project SPEED and not, for instance, monumental political pressure?

I'm not sure what sort of "monumental political pressure" the residents of Devon wield, however a benevolent political landscape for the project at the time will have helped. Credit where credit's due, Boris moved the reopening agenda much further along than any of his immediate successors and predecessors.

However, getting the work done more efficiently in a shorter timeframe will have improved the business case.

 

[zwk500]

I'm not sure what sort of "monumental political pressure" the residents of Devon wield, however a benevolent political landscape for the project at the time will have helped. Credit where credit's due, Boris moved the reopening agenda much further along than any of his immediate successors and predecessors.

None. Boris wanted a railway opened right away and Okehampton was the only one that could be delivered within the timeframe. Boris also did not give two hoots about the socio-economic benefits of reopening a railway, he was purley concerned with self-aggrandisement with fancy projects he can cut ribbons at (see his Isle of Man tunnel or Grain Airport), and if he could have built something better than a railway Okehampton wouldn't have happened.

However, getting the work done more efficiently in a shorter timeframe will have improved the business case.

You cannot simultaneously know that what the impact of the business case was without also knowing what everything cost and how things changed, which you have explicitly said you don't.

I personally support the principle of connecting Tavistock to the rail network, but not at any cost.

 

[yorksrob]

None. Boris wanted a railway opened right away and Okehampton was the only one that could be delivered within the timeframe. Boris also did not give two hoots about the socio-economic benefits of reopening a railway, he was purley concerned with self-aggrandisement with fancy projects he can cut ribbons at (see his Isle of Man tunnel or Grain Airport), and if he could have built something better than a railway Okehampton wouldn't have happened.

You cannot simultaneously know that what the impact of the business case was without also knowing what everything cost and how things changed, which you have explicitly said you don't.

I personally support the principle of connecting Tavistock to the rail network, but not at any cost.

I couldn't care less whether Boris reopened Okehampton as a personal hobby. The fact is that it got opened and usage is exceeding expectations - that is what matters.

A project that is delivered more quickly than the norm will have fewer staffing costs, lower overheads etc, so one doesn't have to be a Quantity Surveyor to know that project speed principles will have a positive effect on the business case.

 

[zwk500]

I couldn't care less whether Boris reopened Okehampton as a personal hobby. The fact is that it got opened and usage is exceeding expectations - that is what matters.

No, what matters is whether or not it was a sensible decision to reopen it. So far the evidence suggests that it was, but we're still only in the first could of years.

A project that is delivered more quickly than the norm will have fewer staffing costs, lower overheads etc, so one doesn't have to be a Quantity Surveyor to know that project speed principles will have a positive effect on the business case.

Again, how can you claim this is down to Project SPEED when you are unable to tell us what Project SPEED is or does?

 

[geordieblue]

I couldn't care less whether Boris reopened Okehampton as a personal hobby. The fact is that it got opened and usage is exceeding expectations - that is what matters.

A project that is delivered more quickly than the norm will have fewer staffing costs, lower overheads etc, so one doesn't have to be a Quantity Surveyor to know that project speed principles will have a positive effect on the business case.

It was delivered more quickly because it was an easy reopening. Essentially Boris opened the easiest line possible and slapped the ‘project Speed’ label on it. This does not mean that other projects will be as easy to achieve if said label is applied because the lowest-hanging fruit is now gone. Even projects far simpler than Tavistock eg Fawley branch are taking a while. I agree Project Speed is an admirable idea but it was not the main factor in the speed of Okehampton getting done.

 

[DDB]

Also is Oakhampton really beating expectations? I remember someone, possibly Baldrich, posting that the passenger forecasting models were generally pretty accurate except they overestimate how long numbers take to build up. I.e. rather than taking 3 years to build up they happen within a year so years 1 and 2 see numbers beat official expectations but year 3 onwards are well predicted.

 

[Bartsimho]

Also is Oakhampton really beating expectations? I remember someone, possibly Baldrich, posting that the passenger forecasting models were generally pretty accurate except they overestimate how long numbers take to build up. I.e. rather than taking 3 years to build up they happen within a year so years 1 and 2 see numbers beat official expectations but year 3 onwards are well predicted.

As payback will be based on the ridership per year having that ridership arrive earlier does always show that the prediction was incorrect. Saying something will have 1 million ridership in 10 years but that arriving in 5 means that by year 10 probably more than double the journeys will have been made than predicted. Think of them cumulatively rather than as descrete year on year estimates. So add preceding years to properly compare the prediction to reality

 

[Hellzapoppin]

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