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TfGM Bus franchising

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TheGrandWazoo

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On the assumption that like London they aren't likely to coordinate timetables on high frequency urban routes (as it isn't really necessary), then the tender will just be for "6 buses per hour" say, and the operator will timetable and diagram it.
There are that many high frequency urban routes. Not everything is like the 192, and save for some routes like the 409, much of the stuff away from Manchester city centre is a lot less frequent.

The tender packages, as required in public sector procurement, will require a lot of administration to a) achieve any sort of savings and compliance spec and b) avoid legal challenges from unsuccessful tenderers. Be under no illusion how much work goes into that.
 
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GusB

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Why has the matter taken so long for a judicial decision to have been reached? How many months have elapsed since the matter was put forward for this decision to be taken?
The earliest mention of it in this thread was in post #369, which was on 23rd March 2021 (found by using the forum Search function), so it's not really that long, especially when you consider that everything was paused for a while during the worst of the pandemic.
 

Xenophon PCDGS

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The earliest mention of it in this thread was in post #369, which was on 23rd March 2021 (found by using the forum Search function), so it's not really that long, especially when you consider that everything was paused for a while during the worst of the pandemic.
As this matter was in the sole hands of a judge for a judicial consideration, do I take it that he would have not attended to any judicial matters laid before him during the period of the Covid pandemic?
 

Goldfish62

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The earliest mention of it in this thread was in post #369, which was on 23rd March 2021 (found by using the forum Search function), so it's not really that long, especially when you consider that everything was paused for a while during the worst of the pandemic.
The judgement was expected by the autumn (21 not 22).
 

GusB

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As this matter was in the sole hands of a judge for a judicial consideration, do I take it that he would have not attended to any judicial matters laid before him during the period of the Covid pandemic?
With the greatest of respect, I have absolutely no idea what the judge's timetable is, nor why they took so long to reach their findings! I'm not an expert on the workings of the court system and merely put forward a possible explanation for the delay - a fairly reasonable assumption when you consider how much activity has been put on hold during the last 2 years. :rolleyes:

RouteOne has published this:

Judicial Review claims by Rotala and Stagecoach concerning elements of bus franchising in Greater Manchester have been rejected by the High Court, which has found that all aspects of the re-regulation process have been carried out legally by the Greater Manchester Combined Authority (GMCA).

Both groups had brought Judicial Review claims on the grounds that the second consultation into bus franchising – staged by GMCA to take account of the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on its plans – failed to meet the standards of proper evidence and analysis required by law. Rotala also sought a Judicial Review of Mayor Andy Burnham’s decision to implement re-regulation, which was confirmed on 25 March 2021.

Stagecoach has accepted the outcome from the High Court, but says it is “disappointed” at the decision. It has underlined its belief that GMCA’s assessment of the impact of COVID-19 on franchising plans did not meet the legal requirements laid down in the Bus Services Act 2017.

In its response to the verdict, Rotala says it will now apply for permission to appeal the decision to the Court of Appeal. Rotala adds that throughout its Judicial Review claim, its Directors were confident that both processes to which it objects were “irrational and/or unlawful.”

Stagecoach says it will now work with GMCA to help deliver Mr Burnham’s ambitions for the region’s bus network as well as National Bus Strategy objectives. Pointedly, the group adds that it looks forward “to the Mayor securing the significant taxpayer support required to deliver the franchising system.”

In his response to the High Court’s denial of the Judicial Review claims, Mr Burnham says that the Court’s decision is “strong” and that it was “won on every point” by GMCA. He adds: “It is frustrating that the two companies concerned pursued this action and I am pleased that the Court has dismissed all of their arguments.”

Nevertheless, Mr Burnham has asked operators and the government to work with GMCA to overhaul Greater Manchester’s bus network. Further details on how and when franchising will be implemented are to be shared on 14 March.

He adds that the Court’s decision on the Judicial Review claims is important for the Liverpool City Region and South Yorkshire. Both are taking steps towards implementing re-regulation of buses in their respective areas. “We hope that this judgement today will pave the way for them to progress with their ambitions to bring buses under public control.”

While Rotala is seeking to appeal the Judicial Review outcome, the group has added the caveat that should it be required to sell its depot and vehicle assets in Greater Manchester to GMCA, it is confident that “any sale of this nature would have no negative effect” on Rotala’s balance sheet.

“In this scenario, the capital which [Rotala] currently has invested in its Bolton operation would be realised into cash and be available for re-investment or redeployment elsewhere in the group.”
 

TheGrandWazoo

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The line...

While Rotala is seeking to appeal the Judicial Review outcome, the group has added the caveat that should it be required to sell its depot and vehicle assets in Greater Manchester to GMCA, it is confident that “any sale of this nature would have no negative effect” on Rotala’s balance sheet.
... caught my eye. I thought that operators are being offered rock bottom terms for the depots, and that fleet isn't included?
 

Bletchleyite

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A friend has just telephoned me to say that he has just downloaded his Stockport MBC council tax bill for 2022/2023 and in the notes shown, it states that the Mayoral General Precept had been increased by 13.2%.

This is not likely to be related to bus franchising. It is too early for it to be affecting Council Tax yet.

It might be related to increasing tender costs for tendered services on the current operating model, though. You'd have to research the Mayoral spending which will be a public matter.
 

Goldfish62

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This is not likely to be related to bus franchising. It is too early for it to be affecting Council Tax yet.

It might be related to increasing tender costs for tendered services on the current operating model, though. You'd have to research the Mayoral spending which will be a public matter.
Yes, operator costs are going through the roof.
 

Volvodart

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The line...


... caught my eye. I thought that operators are being offered rock bottom terms for the depots, and that fleet isn't included?
I cannot find it now, I suspect it was from trade press articles no longer available, that the Streetdecks were delayed whilst Rotala sought assurances with what would happen to the new buses in the event they did not win franchises.
 

Man of Kent

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This is not likely to be related to bus franchising. It is too early for it to be affecting Council Tax yet.

It might be related to increasing tender costs for tendered services on the current operating model, though. You'd have to research the Mayoral spending which will be a public matter.
It is related to bus franchsing, adding around £11m-£12m to the GMCA precept. There is no change proposed to the bus services budget.

From the 11 February 2022 meeting of the GMCA (https://democracy.greatermanchester-ca.gov.uk/documents/s19084/7 Budget Paper C - GMCA Transport Revenue Budget 2022-23.pdf)

2.2 The overall Transport budget for 2022/23 is an increase of £22.927m compared to
2021/22, the major changes relate to:
 Earnback revenue grant – increased use of grant to meet a proportion of the
implementation costs of Bus Reform;
 Increase in Mayoral Precept to meet implementation cost of Bus Franchising;
 Use of reserves to meet Scheme Development Costs offset by a reduction in
capital financing charges
 

Man of Kent

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Ah, so one off implementation costs?
Total implementation costs were estimated at £122m over five years (though I can't remember which one of the myriad reports issued contained this figure). Which is about the same as the supported bus services budget over the same period.
 

Man of Kent

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Interesting point - without looking at the full 1530 page document, has it been specifically quantified what the measures of success are?
A slower rate of decline in patronage was one of the reasons. 200.4m passengers per annum in 2016/17 is forecast to decline over 30 years to 142.4m under the franchising scheme, but to 135.9m under the operators' proposed partnership. (Different versions of the figures can be found, as some were subsequently updated to try to take account of the early effects of Covid. But none of them foresaw that two years on, patronage would still only be hovering around the low 70s% mark.)

Another was the "Place making value for Greater Manchester of a single bus brand".
 

TheGrandWazoo

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A slower rate of decline in patronage was one of the reasons. 200.4m passengers per annum in 2016/17 is forecast to decline over 30 years to 142.4m under the franchising scheme, but to 135.9m under the operators' proposed partnership. (Different versions of the figures can be found, as some were subsequently updated to try to take account of the early effects of Covid. But none of them foresaw that two years on, patronage would still only be hovering around the low 70s% mark.)

Another was the "Place making value for Greater Manchester of a single bus brand".
First of all, thanks for that.

The first one is at least a specific measure, even if it will be singularly impossible to achieve it now. As for "Place making value for Greater Manchester of a single bus brand" - that doesn't actually mean anything unless you quantify what the value actually is :rolleyes:
 

Simon75

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Why were Stagecoach against it when they have franchises in London?
 
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Gareth

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Because they prefer full deregulation to franchises but franchises are better than nothing.
 

TheGrandWazoo

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Why were Stagecoach against it when have franchises in London?

Because they prefer full deregulation to franchises but franchises are better than nothing.
Stagecoach Manchester is one of their best, most profitable operations. Profit margins are lower in London than in Manchester.

Moreover, they bought Greater Manchester Buses (South) from its management. It has an intrinsic value to the business, ahead of its physical assets. They will lose that without compensation, the buses weren't going to be underwritten either (has that changed?) and the depots will be purchased at market rates (which will probably be less that what they are actually worth).

Another way of looking at it...

If you're Abellio, you don't mind buying a ticket for a raffle and you might end up with a 3 bedroom house as a prize. For Stagecoach, you might well object to buying a ticket for a raffle when you have a 4 bedroom house now, might end up with a 3 bedroom house in future OR have no house at all and you're left with the costs of moving out too.
 

markymark2000

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If you're Abellio, you don't mind buying a ticket for a raffle and you might end up with a 3 bedroom house as a prize. For Stagecoach, you might well object to buying a ticket for a raffle when you have a 4 bedroom house now, might end up with a 3 bedroom house in future OR have no house at all and you're left with the costs of moving out too.
Arguebly, Stagecoach know for a fact too that they will not come out with the same or more buses. They will lose buses however they look at. If TFGM gave Stagecoach the same market share as they have now, they would be up for all sorts of reviews and legal action as people will claim it is unfair to give such a monopoly. There are only 30 contracts up for grabs I think they said. OF which some will be swayed to the independents or smaller operators. The 'big' contracts, you will have competition no doubt from existing and new companies as Abellio are 100% going to go in for stuff. You can tell from the letter of support that they wrote in for franchising.
 

TheGrandWazoo

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Arguebly, Stagecoach know for a fact too that they will not come out with the same or more buses. They will lose buses however they look at. If TFGM gave Stagecoach the same market share as they have now, they would be up for all sorts of reviews and legal action as people will claim it is unfair to give such a monopoly. There are only 30 contracts up for grabs I think they said. OF which some will be swayed to the independents or smaller operators. The 'big' contracts, you will have competition no doubt from existing and new companies as Abellio are 100% going to go in for stuff. You can tell from the letter of support that they wrote in for franchising.
No arguably about it - you're right. They are probably going to end up losing business.

Not surprising that Stagecoach is against it (they can only lose) whereas Abellio or Comfort DelGro... they have nothing to lose and everything to gain.
 
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M803UYA

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Stagecoach Manchester is one of their best, most profitable operations. Profit margins are lower in London than in Manchester.

Another way of looking at it...

If you're Abellio, you don't mind buying a ticket for a raffle and you might end up with a 3 bedroom house as a prize. For Stagecoach, you might well object to buying a ticket for a raffle when you have a 4 bedroom house now, might end up with a 3 bedroom house in future OR have no house at all and you're left with the costs of moving out too.
Stagecoach's position has altered from one where they were threatening immediate closure of any operation affected by franchising to one where they've accepted the judgment in Manchester and are prepared to work with the Mayor.
 

Bletchleyite

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Stagecoach's position has altered from one where they were threatening immediate closure of any operation affected by franchising to one where they've accepted the judgment in Manchester and are prepared to work with the Mayor.

I think this could well be because it is now not a family business any more (where Souter's personal opinion will have held a lot of weight) and now just a commercial business more like the other groups.
 

TheGrandWazoo

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Stagecoach's position has altered from one where they were threatening immediate closure of any operation affected by franchising to one where they've accepted the judgment in Manchester and are prepared to work with the Mayor.
True. I was responding to the question as to why Stagecoach were against franchising. They are simply being pragmatic now.
 

Goldfish62

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I don't think their new owners are pro-franchising. They're pragmatic and are pro-making money!
Why wouldn't they be pro-franchising though? It's the standard way of running buses across much of Europe as well as beyond. It's deregulation that's the outlier.
 
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