TfGM Bus franchising

[TheGrandWazoo]

That is of course the correct answer to the original question (apart from the pedantic point that buses are going to be yellow, not orange ).

On the question of whether TfGM decide to pause franchising they didn't with the original case so I think it's highly unlikely they will now. In any case as I understand it things are running late which works in favour of not pausing.

I've not found the actual judgement yet. Is it posted anywhere?

I think the reality is that TfGM will push on. Stagecoach has accepted the judgment and will seek to make the best of a bad job as they see it. I don't see Rotala getting anywhere with their legal approach. Today's statement https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-manchester-60734984 indicates things will progress viz

Mayor Andy Burnham tweeted: "The era of people paying £4 or more for a single journey is coming to an end."
Wigan, Bolton and parts of Salford will be the first areas to get regulated services from autumn next year.
Bury, Rochdale, Oldham and areas of north Manchester will follow in spring 2024, with Stockport, Trafford, Tameside, south Manchester and remaining parts of Salford following by the end of 2024.

Apparently more details to be released today but it's going to happen.

 

[WatcherZero]

Announcement today was fresh schedule:
Wigan/Bolton/Salford Autumn 2023 (slipped from Spring/summer)
North eastern GM Spring 2024 (Advanced 3 months)
Southern GM end of 2024 (Advanced 6 months)

And that single journeys would be capped at £2 with unlimited journeys within an hour, mirroring the £1.65 Oyster fare
(Subject to receiving the governments Bus Back Better grant)

Vernon Everitt formerly of TfL has been hired as Active Travel Commissioner.

 

[Xenophon PCDGS]

And that single journeys would be capped at £2 with unlimited journeys within an hour, mirroring the £1.65 Oyster fare
(Subject to receiving the governments Bus Back Better grant)

Has this Bus Back Better grant been something that was actively promised by the current Government and what is the value involved?

 

[carlberry]

Has this Bus Back Better grant been something that was actively promised by the current Government and what is the value involved?

The government has promised it several times, however it already appears to have halved the amount of money involved and there haven't been (as far as I know) any actually commitments to spend money yet. It's also supposed to cover the whole of England so if Manchester gets loads of money other regions will be wondering why they haven't.

 

[Goldfish62]

The government has promised it several times, however it already appears to have halved the amount of money involved and there haven't been (as far as I know) any actually commitments to spend money yet. It's also supposed to cover the whole of England so if Manchester gets loads of money other regions will be wondering why they haven't.

Every time the government promises it the total amount available seems to decrease.

Announcement today was fresh schedule:
Wigan/Bolton/Salford Autumn 2023 (slipped from Spring/summer)
North eastern GM Spring 2024 (Advanced 3 months)
Southern GM end of 2024 (Advanced 6 months)

Whether you're for or against it the timescale still seems incredibly (over-???) ambitious.

 

[M803UYA]

Has this Bus Back Better grant been something that was actively promised by the current Government and what is the value involved?

April 2022's Buses magazine has a column from Julian Peddle (Page 19 when it arrives in all good retailers) in which he shares information that 16 of the 77 Bus Service Improvement Plan (BSIP) bids are being funded. The detail of which bids that is isn't revealed, just that 16 of 77 are successful.
Mods: feel free to edit BSIP if it's not clear. Not sure if I'm allowed to scan in a magazine article!

Mod note: Freedom to edit post exercised; freedom to delete post entirely may be used next time

 

[Goldfish62]

April 2022's Buses magazine has a column from Julian Peddle (Page 19 when it arrives in all good retailers) in which he shares information that 16 of the 77 BSIP bids are being funded. The detail of which bids that is isn't revealed, just that 16 of 77 are successful.
Mods: feel free to edit BSIP if it's not clear. Not sure if I'm allowed to scan in a magazine article!

And then of those 16 how much of what they asked for will they actually get?

 

[Megafuss]

Announcement today was fresh schedule:
Wigan/Bolton/Salford Autumn 2023 (slipped from Spring/summer)
North eastern GM Spring 2024 (Advanced 3 months)
Southern GM end of 2024 (Advanced 6 months)

And that single journeys would be capped at £2 with unlimited journeys within an hour, mirroring the £1.65 Oyster fare
(Subject to receiving the governments Bus Back Better grant)

Vernon Everitt formerly of TfL has been hired as Active Travel Commissioner.

That shouldn't be a problem though as i assume TfGM has a fare strategy without BSIP as that wasn't a thing when the franchise scheme was developed, right?

 

[Goldfish62]

Vernon Everitt formerly of TfL has been hired as Active Travel Commissioner.

No, he's the new Transport Commissioner.

 

[TheGrandWazoo]

April 2022's Buses magazine has a column from Julian Peddle (Page 19 when it arrives in all good retailers) in which he shares information that 16 of the 77 BSIP bids are being funded. The detail of which bids that is isn't revealed, just that 16 of 77 are successful.
Mods: feel free to edit BSIP if it's not clear. Not sure if I'm allowed to scan in a magazine article!

It'll be interesting to see which ones do make the grade.

As @Goldfish62 indicates, the figure has been eroded as the headline figure then gets reduced by the figures required to avoid the cliff-edge plus other commitments. An interesting article here: https://www.transport-network.co.uk/Bus-back-better-or-worse/17631

Apologies to the mods if we're veering off course and it's a chunky piece without a definitive quote

That shouldn't be a problem though as i assume TfGM has a fare strategy without BSIP as that wasn't a thing when the franchise scheme was developed, right?

It'll be paid for by slashing the margin of the bus barons, removing all that wasteful competition and overprovision (which doesn't really exist - Oxford Road blah blah), and by feeding everything into Metrolink

 

[WatcherZero]

No, he's the new Transport Commissioner.

Yes sorry, the news article muddled it.
Vernon Everitt is the new Transport Commissioner, the Active Travel Commissioner will be announced (next) Monday.

 

[Goldfish62]

Yes sorry, the news article muddled it.
Vernon Everitt is the new Transport Commissioner, the Active Travel Commissioner will be announced (next) Monday.

He's done OK for himself given that he was reorganised out of TfL only a few weeks ago.

The Active Travel Commissioner will be announced (next) Monday.

It's Dame Sarah Storey.

 

[Andyh82]

Announcement today was fresh schedule:
Wigan/Bolton/Salford Autumn 2023 (slipped from Spring/summer)
North eastern GM Spring 2024 (Advanced 3 months)
Southern GM end of 2024 (Advanced 6 months)

And that single journeys would be capped at £2 with unlimited journeys within an hour, mirroring the £1.65 Oyster fare
(Subject to receiving the governments Bus Back Better grant)

Vernon Everitt formerly of TfL has been hired as Active Travel Commissioner.

Is that a bit of political game playing there

So if Manchester doesn’t get some or all of the grant, blame is directed at the Westminster government?

Surely Manchester’s bus franchising dates back years before ‘Bus Back Better’ was a thing anyway?

 

[Goldfish62]

Is that a bit of political game playing there

So if Manchester doesn’t get some or all of the grant, blame is directed at the Westminster government?

Surely Manchester’s bus franchising dates back years before ‘Bus Back Better’ was a thing anyway?

Not really. The fares levels proposed under the scheme were originally going to be broadly in line with the cheapest operator-specific fares. Anything lower was unfunded. "Bus Back Better" funding would enable the cheaper fares to be introduced. Perfectly sensible to state that they're subject to government funding.

 

[LUYMun]

Can't see this going well. Burnham has made it clear that Manchester's buses would be run "London-style," which is quite unoriginal considering the problems TfL is facing. The fares being shown aren't too different from the unsustainably cheap fares that London buses have. And it's not as if London has zonal tap in tap out fares of varying degrees depending on where you go, of which a bus & rail journey does cost more than £1.65.

 

[Bletchleyite]

Can't see this going well. Burnham has made it clear that Manchester's buses would be run "London-style," which is quite unoriginal considering the problems TfL is facing. The fares being shown aren't too different from the unsustainably cheap fares that London buses have. And it's not as if London has zonal tap in tap out fares of varying degrees depending on where you go, of which a bus & rail journey does cost more than £1.65.

I do think he's making the wrong choice by not going for a full Verbundtarif (joint tariff) with one set of fares agnostic of mode or combination thereof. As he's starting from scratch that's be quite easy to do. By doing it the way he is, there will remain pressure to run bus routes that will abstract Metrolink traffic rather than bus routes connecting people to Metrolink as per European practice, and that will considerably increase costs.

 

[Goldfish62]

Can't see this going well. Burnham has made it clear that Manchester's buses would be run "London-style," which is quite unoriginal considering the problems TfL is facing. The fares being shown aren't too different from the unsustainably cheap fares that London buses have. And it's not as if London has zonal tap in tap out fares of varying degrees depending on where you go, of which a bus & rail journey does cost more than £1.65.

"London-style" is used as there's nothing else like it in the UK to compare it to. If he said, "Oslo-style" or "Singapore-style" it would be meaningless to most people even though the way the network is going to be contracted out is much more akin to these locations than London.

As regards fares I agree that a trick's been missed in not having a zonal scheme enabled by tap-on, tap-off.

 

[johncrossley]

Earlier TfGM documents mentioned that if you connected from trams to buses you would only pay the highest of those fares, which would generally be the tram fare, so there is some improvement in integration. The lack of full integration is disappointing but not surprising, and was not promised in those earlier documents. It is probably easier politically to have a low bus only fare.

 

[47550]

Route One is reporting that Stagecoach Stockport are to replace their whole fleet of 170 buses in Q1 2024 with battery electric buses. Stagecoach will be building a new depot to accomodate them. Funding is split between Stagecoach, DfT and GM Combined Authority. I wonder how this fits with the franchising (due later in 2024 for Stockport I think) as Stagecoach are investing £37m but wouldn't be doing so if the whole depot is at risk of being lost a few months later.

ZEBRA standard track: £198m for 943 zero-emission buses - routeone

£198m will go towards 943 zero-emission buses through 12 successful bidders to ZEBRA via its standard track mechanism, it has been confirmed.

www.route-one.net

Largest of the successful bids in the second tranche is from Greater Manchester Combined Authority (GMCA). It will see DfT provide £36.9m towards to procurement of 170 battery-electric buses by Q1 2024. They will replace the current fleet operated by Stagecoach Manchester from its Stockport depot. The operator will construct a new base in the town to house those buses and contribute approximately £37.2m to the project. GMCA will provide £12.5m.

 

[Goldfish62]

Route One is reporting that Stagecoach Stockport are to replace their whole fleet of 170 buses in Q1 2024 with battery electric buses. Stagecoach will be building a new depot to accomodate them. Funding is split between Stagecoach, DfT and GM Combined Authority. I wonder how this fits with the franchising (due later in 2024 for Stockport I think) as Stagecoach are investing £37m but wouldn't be doing so if the whole depot is at risk of being lost a few months later.

ZEBRA standard track: £198m for 943 zero-emission buses - routeone

£198m will go towards 943 zero-emission buses through 12 successful bidders to ZEBRA via its standard track mechanism, it has been confirmed.

www.route-one.net

There'll been an arrangement in place for such an eventuality.

 

[domcoop7]

There'll been an arrangement in place for such an eventuality.

There is indeed. - From the GM Combined Authority minutes. (I can't get this to cut and paste the text for some reason I'm sorry, and it's too long for me to type out manually, so I've just included a screenshot, hope that's OK)

b) It is understood and agreed by all parties that at such time as the Bus
Franchise Area 3 Plan (that includes Stockport) is enacted, responsibility for
the fleet assets would transfer to GMCA in a manner consistent with the
proposals set out in the Bus Franchising Assessment. The residual value of
these fleet assets would be based on an agreed depreciation curve; and the
Residual Value paid would be in inverse proportion to the Public Sector
funding received to purchase the asset.
3.7 Separate Heads of Terms will also be established between TfGM, Stockport MBC
and Stagecoach to ensure the “Depot Relocation Foundational Project” is similarly
underpinned by agreements that ensure full alignment and consistency with Bus
Reform plans. It is envisaged that a contractual mechanism that ensures transfer of
ownership of the depot asset at an equitable and fair price will underpin these
Heads of Terms.

I note that in the GMCA documents, they mention that no other operator was interested in joining the bid. I wonder whether that's because part of the terms of the bid - effectively - commit the operator to going along with the Bus Franchising proposals? As can be seen, Stagecoach is now contractually required to hand over its buses and Stockport depot in 2024. Other GM operators will be asked to sell their buses and depots (probably most will as they won't have much use for them), but they won't be forcibly compulsorily purchased.

 

[GusB]

There is indeed. - From the GM Combined Authority minutes. (I can't get this to cut and paste the text for some reason I'm sorry, and it's too long for me to type out manually, so I've just included a screenshot, hope that's OK)

Could you post the link and I'll see if I can get it to work?

 

[Goldfish62]

There is indeed. - From the GM Combined Authority minutes. (I can't get this to cut and paste the text for some reason I'm sorry, and it's too long for me to type out manually, so I've just included a screenshot, hope that's OK)

View attachment 112299

I note that in the GMCA documents, they mention that no other operator was interested in joining the bid. I wonder whether that's because part of the terms of the bid - effectively - commit the operator to going along with the Bus Franchising proposals? As can be seen, Stagecoach is now contractually required to hand over its buses and Stockport depot in 2024. Other GM operators will be asked to sell their buses and depots (probably most will as they won't have much use for them), but they won't be forcibly compulsorily purchased.

It certainly provides a very neat solution for this part of Greater Manchester, given that I understand finding suitable operational sites on the assumption that operators will not sell their depots to TfGM is one of the biggest hurdles in the whole scheme.

Given Stagecoach's most vociferous opposition to franchising compared to most operators I am surprised that they were prepared to participate in the ZEBRA funding bid knowing the potential for their involvement to end very quickly.

 

[Xenophon PCDGS]

Given Stagecoach's most vociferous opposition to franchising compared to most operators I am surprised that they were prepared to participate in the ZEBRA funding bid knowing the potential for their involvement to end very quickly.

Could there be any "cunning plan" of Stagecoach that is currently hidden in its sudden apparent acceptance of the situation?

 

[Bletchleyite]

Could there be any "cunning plan" of Stagecoach that is currently hidden in its sudden apparent acceptance of the situation?

I think previously it will have been subject to the personal whims of Souter and Gloag as major shareholders (and they are known to be anti-franchising), whereas if it's going to be sold to private equity they will just do what will make money in the context of the uncontrollable external forces on the market.

 

[Goldfish62]

Could there be any "cunning plan" of Stagecoach that is currently hidden in its sudden apparent acceptance of the situation?

The most obvious cunning plan would be to win as much work as possible.

 

[TheGrandWazoo]

Could there be any "cunning plan" of Stagecoach that is currently hidden in its sudden apparent acceptance of the situation?

I think previously it will have been subject to the personal whims of Souter and Gloag as major shareholders (and they are known to be anti-franchising), whereas if it's going to be sold to private equity they will just do what will make money in the context of the uncontrollable external forces on the market.

Gents - you're overthinking things.

The fact is that they have opposed franchising as, in Manchester, they had the most to lose and almost nothing to gain. Personal whims??? No firm would be in favour of potentially losing its prime position in those circumstances.

This is not some "Road to Damascus" conversion - it's an acceptance that this will be the reality. Also, if TfGM wants an electric fleet etc and still retains the flexibility of franchising, then the depot facilities will need to be underwritten by TfGM so that if Stagecoach lose the franchise, the site and associated costs etc are novated.

 

[domcoop7]

Could you post the link and I'll see if I can get it to work?

Sorry haven't been online for a few days. Link here https://democracy.greatermanchester...mission Bus Regional Areas ZEBRA Fund Bid.pdf

 

[GusB]

Sorry haven't been online for a few days. Link here https://democracy.greatermanchester-ca.gov.uk/documents/s18864/15 GMCA 20220128 Zero Emission Bus Regional Areas ZEBRA Fund Bid.pdf

Thanks. I managed to get the text to copy eventually, but it was a pain in the bahookie to do! I've added the text quote in now.

 

[Rod Harrison]

See Manchester Airport, owned by the local councils, is a great example of organising a transport system. Should be fun when they get hold of local bus services. Booze ups and breweries spring to mind!!