That's true. I imagine most people from the likes of Whitchurch and Nantwich would be going to Manchester and aim for the direct service rather than change at Crewe.
I was surprised myself when it went to a 197 in the first place as it was always suggested it along with the HOWL would remain as 153s.
It was meant to go over to 170s when those were the planned units for the HOWL. Now that the HOWL is keeping 153s, the plans are for the local to switch to 197s. Crewe drivers aren't currently planned to keep 153 competency and without that it's very difficult to keep them on the local.
Should go to 196/0 under WMR, they already work them to Shrewsbury, and then a route entirely within England isn't managed by the Welsh Government. It also helps with TfW's stock shortage, freeing only one unit, but every little helps.
It really shouldn't, it would be a lot more inefficient from a crewing perspective, and there would be no benefits other than some perceived advantage in having the service run by a DFT run TOC rather than a Welsh one.
At the moment, it's worked by Shrewsbury, Crewe, and Chester (guards only) crews who already need to sign the route and traction anyway for their other duties. At various different times on and off it's also been worked by Cardiff crews. Whilst WMR have a depot at each end, neither of them sign the route, and Crewe don't even sign any diesel traction either. You'd end up with a surplus of crews at TfW and a shortage at WMR. There would be minimal cost savings at TfW but rather large training expenses at WMR.
And what happens when the service is cancelled? TfW put extra calls in the Manchester - South Wales services to compensate. Good luck getting them to do that when it's another TOCs problem. It's the same with the late night services when there isn't enough traffic to justify a stand alone shuttle.
Is the service really suffering by being run by a Welsh TOC?
Alternative to WMR is give Shrewsbury to Crewe to Northern. Sort of makes more sense except WMR/LNR serve both ends.
That makes even less sense. Northerns nearest traincrew depot is 30 miles from Crewe (and 60 miles from Shrewsbury!). You can't interwork it with any other Northern service as there aren't the paths across the WCML at Crewe and 323s don't work very well without overhead wires. It would be a stand alone service on a limb, on what is already a limb of the Northern network.
Only excuse for it staying with TfW is that they run other longer distance trains that use the route.
Which means they have all the crews and units in place for it already. Seems a pretty good excuse to me.