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"TfW & Welsh Govt's future ambitions

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anthony263

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Welsh government revealed some more of their priorities for the South wales metro up to 2029.

Glad to see electrification to Swansea. The map even shows a few new stations across South and west wales including St clears.
 

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Tomos y Tanc

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Welsh government revealed some more of their priorities for the South wales metro up to 2029.

Glad to see electrification to Swansea. The map even shows a few new stations across South and west wales including St clears.
The trouble is that things like electrification are outwith the control of the Welsh Government. They're aspirations rather than plans, not that there's anything wrong with having aspirations.
 

Starmill

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Welsh government revealed some more of their priorities for the South wales metro up to 2029.

Glad to see electrification to Swansea. The map even shows a few new stations across South and west wales including St clears.
St Clears won New Stations 3 funding fairly recently.
 

TravelDream

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Welsh government revealed some more of their priorities for the South wales metro up to 2029.

Glad to see electrification to Swansea. The map even shows a few new stations across South and west wales including St clears.

The electrification to Swansea has always been a Welsh Gov priority and will continue to be one until the UK government coughs up the cash*. It's certainly not impossible with the supposed 'leveling up' agenda, though we don't actually know yet what 'leveling up' actually means.

*and before any of the anti-Welsh come and moan why the Welsh Government don't pay themselves, the South Wales Mainline is the responsibility of Network Rail and the UK Government, not the Welsh Government (I hate to post this, but these people always seem to come out of the woodwork). The current Conservative Government is not going to devolve anything else related to rail to the Welsh Government, but it's possible this will happen in the future.
 

sefyllian

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Welsh government revealed some more of their priorities for the South wales metro up to 2029.

Glad to see electrification to Swansea. The map even shows a few new stations across South and west wales including St clears.

I know the order is correct, but it’s going to really confuse some people if they keep those names!

Cardiff Central – Newport Road – Cardiff Parkway – Newport West – Newport
 

Starmill

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I know the order is correct, but it’s going to really confuse some people if they keep those names!

Cardiff Central – Newport Road – Cardiff Parkway – Newport West – Newport
I think that would all be OK if Newport Road were changed.
 

Cardiff123

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The trouble is that things like electrification are outwith the control of the Welsh Government. They're aspirations rather than plans, not that there's anything wrong with having aspirations.

It's still possible for rail infrastructure outside of the core valleys to be devolved from the Department for Transport to Transport for Wales, but as you say not currently.
Sadly whilst there's a populist (some would say English nationalist), Conservative UK government in Westminster that's openly hostile to devolution, these plans will stay as long term aspirations.

Even if we had David Cameron's Conservative UK govt now, there would be a chance of further devolution of rail infrastructure to Wales. Devolution of the CVL started under Cameron's govt and was finalised under Theresa May's govt. Under the current politicians in power in Downing St at the moment, further rail devolution to Wales is a pipe dream.
 

Wolfie

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Sadly whilst there's a populist (some would say English nationalist), Conservative UK government in Westminster that's openly hostile to devolution, these plans will stay as long term aspirations.

Even if we had David Cameron's Conservative UK govt now, there would be a chance of further devolution of rail infrastructure to Wales. Devolution of the CVL started under Cameron's govt and was finalised under Theresa May's govt. Under the current politicians in power in Downing St at the moment, further rail devolution to Wales is a pipe dream.
While l agree the main thrust of your argument there is a certain irony in English nationalism being portrayed as a bad thing while Welsh and Scottish nationalism is fine.
 

the sniper

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The electrification to Swansea has always been a Welsh Gov priority and will continue to be one until the UK government coughs up the cash*. It's certainly not impossible with the supposed 'leveling up' agenda, though we don't actually know yet what 'leveling up' actually means.

I would be surprised if it doesn't get done under GBR, in order to show how it serves the whole country. They'll have to finish off the rest of the GWML regardless.
 

Tomos y Tanc

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Am I the only person who can’t see anything concrete that’s new?

Lots of reanouncing of existing/known plans and yet more aspirations.

Apologies for being the grumpy old (well 36yr) synic, but is there any *news* in today’s announcement?
You're right that there's nothing hugely new.

What there is is a useful pulling together of various schemes to produce something that looks like a national plan for public transport. Given the lead times for transport infrastructure, there is a tendancy for things to be announced and reannounced as they move through the process.

Sometimes what's left out is more interesting than what's left in. For instance, the idea of using the freight line to Coedely and Beddau for passsenger services seems to be off the table while the alternative, the Metro line to Llantwit Faerdre via Plasdwr and Creigiau, remains.

The mooted "Circle line for the valleys" linking Caerphilly and Pontypridd via Nelson also seem too have gone as have any plans to re-open the Taf Fechan line.
 
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Starmill

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Simon Hart on the other hand acts more like an imperial viceroy taking orders from above, taking every opportunity to argue with Welsh Govt.
This is certainly the approach which suits the Prime Minister. In my view he cannot stand the idea of very popular and electorally successful Labour leaders, and does everything he can to undermine and humiliate Mark Drakeford, Sadiq Khan, Andy Burnham and others.

Am I the only person who can’t see anything concrete that’s new?

Lots of reanouncing of existing/known plans and yet more aspirations.

Apologies for being the grumpy old (well 36yr) synic, but is there any *news* in today’s announcement?
I'm struggling to interpret it too. But then that really does not mean much!
 

Dai Corner

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This is certainly the approach which suits the Prime Minister. In my view he cannot stand the idea of very popular and electorally successful Labour leaders, and does everything he can to undermine and humiliate Mark Drakeford, Sadiq Khan, Andy Burnham and others
I'd disagree that Mark Drakeford is 'electorally successful'. He leads a minority Government which only got its latest Covid measures through because an opposition member had technical difficulties when trying to vote remotely.
 

Starmill

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I'd disagree that Mark Drakeford is 'electorally successful'. He leads a minority Government which only got its latest Covid measures through because an opposition member had technical difficulties when trying to vote remotely.
He did however win a significantly increased constituency majority of more than 10,000. His party managed to secure almost 40% of all votes cast and gained vote share and a seat at recent elections.

The fact that you're not a fan of their covid measures doesn't detract from that performance. He's vastly more electorally successful than anyone else in Wales for some time.
 

Dai Corner

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He did however win a significantly increased constituency majority of more than 10,000. His party managed to secure almost 40% of all votes cast and gained vote share and a seat at recent elections.

The fact that you're not a fan of their covid measures doesn't detract from that performance. He's vastly more electorally successful than anyone else in Wales for some time.
I expressed no opinion on Welsh Labour's Covid policies; just noted that they were only able to implement them by good luck. By contrast, the Conservative party's electoral success mean their Government can do whatever it wants to, even if there are some dissenters on its own benches.

I know this is because of different quirks in the two electoral systems. Understanding these and using them to your advantage is as imporyanty as having the right leader, policies and candidates (unfortunately).

Welsh Labour have won around half the seats in the Assembly/Senedd ever since it's existed. They haven't done significantly better under Drakeford.

Anyway this is off-topic for the thread. Apologies for my rambling!
 

TravelDream

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There's nothing that's totally new in those proposals, though it is nice to see them all put in one place in an official government document.

I am hopeful for the SWML electrification to be extended to Swansea, and it is more than possible we will see some action on it before 2029; but it is entirely down to what the UK Government decides to do.

I expressed no opinion on Welsh Labour's Covid policies; just noted that they were only able to implement them by good luck. By contrast, the Conservative party's electoral success mean their Government can do whatever it wants to, even if there are some dissenters on its own benches.

You are mistaken on nearly every account. UK General Elections use solely first past the post while Welsh Parliament ones use a mixed proportional system designed to make it next to impossible for any party to get a majority. The Tories got 43% in 2019 vs Labour's 40% in 2021. Not that different given The Tories were only against two opposition parties in England versus 3+ Labour were against.
Secondly, in 2019 the Tories were riding high in the polls which hasn't been the case for Labour for some time. Laboru far exceeded expectation back in May in Wales. Almost all experts (or 'experts' if you prefer) expected a much stronger Tory and anti-assembly vote and a weaker Labour vote. Drakfeford got the equal best seat total Labour have ever got despite the very difficult circumstances of the elction.
 

D6975

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A few more new maps on the TFW site, including the cross Cardiff Bay line now being shown as an "Emerging Priority to 2029" suggesting this has moved from Cardiff Council aspiration to a TFW/Welsh Gov one.
South Wales Metro: Future developments | Transport for Wales (tfw.wales)

Ebbw Vale line also highlighted with the branch to Abertillery and extension of the Aberdare line up Hirwaun way.

What's missing though is quite interesting, the north-west corridor is described as bus corridor. So no rail line planned any time soon.
Blimey - wires all the way to Milford including the district? Very optimistic I think.
 

WesternBiker

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A few more new maps on the TFW site, including the cross Cardiff Bay line now being shown as an "Emerging Priority to 2029" suggesting this has moved from Cardiff Council aspiration to a TFW/Welsh Gov one.
South Wales Metro: Future developments | Transport for Wales (tfw.wales)

Ebbw Vale line also highlighted with the branch to Abertillery and extension of the Aberdare line up Hirwaun way.

What's missing though is quite interesting, the north-west corridor is described as bus corridor. So no rail line planned any time soon.
And no obvious sign of electrifying to Barry or Penarth (or the rest of the Vale line). I realise they're not infrastructure currently under the control of the Welsh Government, but neither is the main line... And it would strike me as a more obvious thing to do than electrify to Milford (nice thought that would be). Maybe it is simply too detailed for these overview maps?

Nice to see the Ebbw Vale line into Newport as part of the proposals. (I'm planning a trip to the Gwent records office and discovered it has moved to Ebbw Vale. I presume that is something the rail link has facilitated - though it is ironic it isn't currently easy to get there by train from the rest of Gwent.)
 
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Dai Corner

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Nice to see the Ebbw Vale line into Newport as part of the proposals. (I'm planning a trip to the Gwent records office and discovered it has moved to Ebbw Vale. I presume that is something the rail link has facilitated - though it is ironic it isn't currently easy to get there by train from the rest of Gwent.)
It's not too bad if you don't mind changing from bus to train at Pye Corner, Crosskeys or Newbridge. All are served by frequent buses (when Stagecoach drivers aren't on strike) from nearby stops.

It will be interesting to see how the Newport-Crosskeys service does. I suspect it will be of most use to those travelling beyond Newport.
 

TravelDream

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Blimey - wires all the way to Milford including the district? Very optimistic I think.

I think the 'longer term priorities' (i.e. post 2029) is a bit of fantasy stuff from TFW. It's hard to see how there'll be an economic case for it in the foreseeable future.
 

Starmill

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I think the 'longer term priorities' (i.e. post 2029) is a bit of fantasy stuff from TFW. It's hard to see how there'll be an economic case for it in the foreseeable future.
I don't think it is though. There's usually an economic case for very large scale interventions all over the country, basically anywhere there's population. You can generate big benefits because you can benefit from the agglomeration. Lots of South Wales public transport interventions would be excellent value for money.

What you may lack is a financial case. It's unclear exactly where the resources could or should come from to actually fund some projects. For example, say the Welsh Government gained the authority to go to the market to issue bonds. Their annual revenues are very small by government standards, so they may not be able to borrow much at competitive rates. So the creditworthiness of the government could limit the funds they could acquire through borrowing, and therefore the marginal capital spending would need to be very carefully prioritised. That may stop some major projects, even if they're priorities, from going ahead. This would be an example of not proceeding because of an inadequate financial case. But that doesn't mean that they're not value for money, as would be the case if they had no economic case.

Obviously that's a hypothetical example. But the key is that lots of economic cases are still being made all over the country post pandemic. Lots interventions are still value for money. It's just that they may not be the rail enhancements which had previously been planned.
 

Dai Corner

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I don't think it is though. There's usually an economic case for very large scale interventions all over the country, basically anywhere there's population. You can generate big benefits because you can benefit from the agglomeration. Lots of South Wales public transport interventions would be excellent value for money.

What you may lack is a financial case. It's unclear exactly where the resources could or should come from to actually fund some projects. For example, say the Welsh Government gained the authority to go to the market to issue bonds. Their annual revenues are very small by government standards, so they may not be able to borrow much at competitive rates. So the creditworthiness of the government could limit the funds they could acquire through borrowing, and therefore the marginal capital spending would need to be very carefully prioritised. That may stop some major projects, even if they're priorities, from going ahead. This would be an example of not proceeding because of an inadequate financial case. But that doesn't mean that they're not value for money, as would be the case if they had no economic case.

Obviously that's a hypothetical example. But the key is that lots of economic cases are still being made all over the country post pandemic. Lots interventions are still value for money. It's just that they may not be the rail enhancements which had previously been planned.
If you want a real example which is transport-related (albeit not rail) consider the privately-funded improvements to the A465.


Private financing pays for £550m Heads of the Valleys section​

10/11/2020
Rhodri Clark

The Welsh Government has awarded a major road widening contract, which will use private finance and is estimated to be worth more than half a billion pounds.​

The new contract to dual 18km of the A465 Heads of the Valleys road between Dowlais and Hirwaun uses the Welsh Government’s Mutual Investment Model (MIM), a PFI variant in which the government holds a stake.
heads%20of%20the%20valley%20dualling%20image.jpg

The Future Valleys consortium of FCC, Roadbridge, Meridiam, Alun Griffiths and Atkins will work with Welsh contractors and design teams. Construction, estimated to cost more than £550m, is due to start early next year and end in mid-2025.
Wales made much less use than England of the Private Finance Initiative but has sought to develop the model to make up for limited investment cash in infrastructure.
For 30 years, the Future Valleys consortium will receive government payments – an amount the government declined to disclose – while operating and maintaining the road.
The MIM was developed when the government expected to spend more than £1bn of its own funding on the now-cancelled M4 Relief Road at Newport, which would have meant alternative funding was needed for the A465.
Asked why the government was using private finance instead of borrowing, a spokesman said: ‘The MIM was developed following a decade of austerity and unprecedented pressures on capital budgets. The model has provisions to secure community benefits, sustainable development and ethical employment practices.’
Welsh transport minister Ken Skates said: ‘While it is inevitable there will be disruption while the project is being built, the contract requires Future Valleys to mitigate these impacts, with financial penalties for non-performance.’
Finance minister Rebecca Evans said this was the first use of the MIM, which ‘provides the best opportunity to complete the scheme as quickly as possible’. She added that having such a large project ready to go ‘has the real potential to accelerate the regional recovery’.
Dualling the A465 between Gilwern and Brynmawr remains unfinished, with contractor Costain writing off £45m following arbitration of its dispute with the government.
I dare say the Welsh Government could fund electrification to West Wales in a similar way if they wanted to. However they want the UK Government to pay as rail infrastructure isn't devolved. The UK Government don't see an economic case as all they are responsible for is an hourly bi-mode train as far as Swansea and electrifying the last 40 miles of its journey from London isn't sufficient to justify the expenditure.
 

Starmill

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It only highlights further the fundamentally unsound nature of Welsh devolution compared with Northern Ireland and Scotland. But a solution to that would likely also need a solution England-wide. And that's well off topic here.
 

The exile

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I think the 'longer term priorities' (i.e. post 2029) is a bit of fantasy stuff from TFW. It's hard to see how there'll be an economic case for it in the foreseeable future.
Hope that the Patchway - Bristol TM electrification being in the "enhancements Post 2029" map isn't letting something slip.... Would hope that it would be well under way by then (if not complete!)
 

anthony263

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Hope that the Patchway - Bristol TM electrification being in the "enhancements Post 2029" map isn't letting something slip.... Would hope that it would be well under way by then (if not complete!)
Thats up to Boris and co who are co.ing under pressure from Gwr to finish the job
 

Cardiff123

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One thing that is certain is that if the glaring constitutional anomaly was fixed of Network Rail in Wales getting crumbs to spend compared to Scotland and Northern Ireland, as shown by the startling figures in this table, Welsh Govt's ambitions for the rail network in Wales would be far closer to being realised.

As you can see, Scotland & NI get 100% Barnett consequentials for their rail infrastructure spending as a result of HS2, whilst Wales gets 0%.

IMG_20211023_235132.jpg
 

morrisobrien

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Sometimes what's left out is more interesting than what's left in. For instance, the idea of using the freight line to Coedely and Beddau for passsenger services seems to be off the table while the alternative, the Metro line to Llantwit Faerdre via Plasdwr and Creigiau, remains.

Sometimes what's left out is more interesting than what's left in. For instance, the idea of using the freight line to Coedely and Beddau for passsenger services seems to be off the table
Know this area fairly well.Like to know your thoughts on the reasons why?
 
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