The 2024 US presidential election.

[Busaholic]

Can you explain this point a bit more please?

New York Supreme Court Justice Christina Ryba has ruled that Kennedy's ballot-access petition in the state is invalid, so he can't go on it. Apparently he has to make such pleas in each state, and though some like North Carolina are allowing his name to appear, apparently many more may follow New York's lead. I gather the reason Kennedy has to do this is because, like other candidates that aren't the official Democrat or Republican ones have many hurdles to conquer, not all financial, before their names can be included.

It's a very complicated subject, not easily explained to anyone not conversant with the US political situation, and my own knowledge of it is puny.

 

[JamesT]

New York Supreme Court Justice Christina Ryba has ruled that Kennedy's ballot-access petition in the state is invalid, so he can't go on it. Apparently he has to make such pleas in each state, and though some like North Carolina are allowing his name to appear, apparently many more may follow New York's lead. I gather the reason Kennedy has to do this is because, like other candidates that aren't the official Democrat or Republican ones have many hurdles to conquer, not all financial, before their names can be included.

It's a very complicated subject, not easily explained to anyone not conversant with the US political situation, and my own knowledge of it is puny.

Having rules on being nominated for an election ballot isn’t that arcane. Candidates in this country have been disqualified from standing in elections after irregularities on their form or with signatures.

The slightly weird bit is the outsourcing of the threshold where the candidate is a nominee of a party. They then define a party as one that manages sufficient votes in the previous election for governor. Which does make sense if you consider the signature requirement is there to weed out the no-hopers.

 

[brad465]

Robert Kennedy Jr is reported to be addressing the nation on Friday about his path forward. Given his campaign is reported to be out of funds, I'd say there's a good chance he's pulling out:

News updates from August 21: Fed officials signal readiness for September rate cut; Five bodies found on Mike Lynch’s superyacht

www.ft.com

Now confirmed:

Robert F Kennedy Jr suspends campaign and backs Trump

Trump praises RFK Jr as "phenomenal" at a rally, but members of the Kennedy clan accuse him of "betrayal".

www.bbc.co.uk

Robert F Kennedy Jr has said he is suspending his independent run for the US presidency and will "throw my support" to Donald Trump.
Mr Kennedy, 70, a Democrat for most of his life and the scion of the powerful Kennedy dynasty said: "In my heart I no longer believe I have a realistic path to victory in the face of systematic censorship".
He said that the principles that had led him to leave the Democratic party had now compelled him "to throw my support to President Trump".
He insisted he would not drop out, and would keep his name on the ballot in the states where it will not affect the race.
The decision effectively brings to an end a campaign fuelled by Mr Kennedy's anti-vax views, and coloured by stories of dead bears and brain worms. His polling has slumped from a high of double figures as funds and national coverage dried up.
Mr Kennedy said that Trump's insistence he could end the war in Ukraine by negotiating with Russia "alone would justify my support for his campaign".
He added that polling indicated that staying on the ballot in battleground states would "likely hand the election over to the Democrats".
He said he would remove his name from 10 states where his presence would be a "spoiler" to Trump's effort.
"If you live in a blue state, you can vote for me without harming or helping President Trump or Vice-President Harris and red states, the same will apply," he said. "I encourage you to vote for me, and if enough of you do vote for me and neither of the major party candidates win 270 votes, which is quite possible."
Before working to elect Trump, Mr Kennedy said he asked to have similar conversations with Ms Harris.

 

[GusB]

I can't say that I've ever been enthusiastic about a prospective US presidential candidate, but I listened to Harris' speech last night and thought that she came across quite well. If I was American, I know who I'd be voting for. Trump cannot compete with this.

 

[GRALISTAIR]

A Kennedy endorsement is powerful.

 

[Cowley]

Now confirmed:

Robert F Kennedy Jr suspends campaign and backs Trump

Trump praises RFK Jr as "phenomenal" at a rally, but members of the Kennedy clan accuse him of "betrayal".

www.bbc.co.uk

This:

Before welcoming RFK Jr to the stage on Friday, Trump promised, if elected, to release all remaining documents relating to the 1963 assassination of President Kennedy.

Is quite an interesting move. Considering that in 2017 it was said that around two thirds of Americans still believed that the government was involved in the JFK assassination:

One of the US's biggest mysteries

With new revelations calling into question the theory of the "lone gunman", Clare Thorp explores how JFK's assassination continues to live on in popular culture.

www.bbc.com

In a fiercely divided country, Americans largely agree on one thing… there's more to the JFK killing than they know. A 2017 survey found that 61% believe others were involved in the assassination.

I wonder how much that little transactional teaser will shift the dial?

 

[GRALISTAIR]

Is quite an interesting move. Considering that in 2017 it was said that around two thirds of Americans still believed that the government was involved in the JFK assassination:

One of the US's biggest mysteries

With new revelations calling into question the theory of the "lone gunman", Clare Thorp explores how JFK's assassination continues to live on in popular culture.

www.bbc.com

I wonder how much that little transactional teaser will shift the dial?

Probably not as much as some believe. It is a good move though imho.

 

[Gloster]

I was reading that some members of the family have been saying that they do not agree with RFK Jnr. So we will see if the lustre of being ’son of’ will outshine the family name.

 

[edwin_m]

Probably not as much as some believe. It is a good move though imho.

Biden could shoot the fox and release them anyway. I guess there might be something they don't want releasing, but it's now well over 60 years ago and anyone directly involved is probably no longer with us, so I'm inclined to think keeping them secret probably does more damage to public confidence.

 

[brad465]

Biden could shoot the fox and release them anyway. I guess there might be something they don't want releasing, but it's now well over 60 years ago and anyone directly involved is probably no longer with us, so I'm inclined to think keeping them secret probably does more damage to public confidence.

RFK and Trump thrive on whipping up conspiracy theories and/or other non-stories for their own benefit. This will probably be why this idea has come out now. While Biden could starve them of this idea by releasing them anyway, the danger is they can claim Biden only did so because they demanded it, which works in their favour, then move onto pledging to release other classified subjects, at which point Biden is trapped. Also, even if there's nothing particularly interesting in the files, if Biden releases them the two of them will claim it's a whitewash and still pledge to release the full thing, even if there is nothing more to release. I think the best option is to ignore the issue until after the election.

 

[Busaholic]

Biden could shoot the fox and release them anyway. I guess there might be something they don't want releasing, but it's now well over 60 years ago and anyone directly involved is probably no longer with us, so I'm inclined to think keeping them secret probably does more damage to public confidence.

It's 1% of the official material that hasn't been released. Mind you, even 1% is probably hundreds, if not thousands, of pages. Trump 'threatened' to release it when he was President, and is now repeating that mantra should he be re-elected/stages a coup. It's either truly explosive stuff or, more likely in my view, is being withheld purely to protect the reputation of a person/persons probably long deceased.

 

[ainsworth74]

A Kennedy endorsement is powerful.

But the endorsement of this Kennedy? Is it really that powerful? His main power was in splitting the vote. He's not going to be able to do that any more as he isn't standing. Those who were going to vote for him because of his crackpot views on things like vaccines will now probably just vote Trump, those who were going to vote for him on the basis of the Kennedy family name (a diminishing number I'd wager as his views become more widely known) will vote Harris. There's then probably a small subset who will just not vote at all.

Surely his endorsement isn't that powerful in reality, particularly when plenty of other people with the Kennedy name are out and out saying they disagree with him!

 

[GRALISTAIR]

But the endorsement of this Kennedy? Is it really that powerful? His main power was in splitting the vote. He's not going to be able to do that any more as he isn't standing. Those who were going to vote for him because of his crackpot views on things like vaccines will now probably just vote Trump, those who were going to vote for him on the basis of the Kennedy family name (a diminishing number I'd wager as his views become more widely known) will vote Harris. There's then probably a small subset who will just not vote at all.

Surely his endorsement isn't that powerful in reality, particularly when plenty of other people with the Kennedy name are out and out saying they disagree with him!

You could be right. As they say, watch this space. Interesting times.

 

[Noddy]

A Kennedy endorsement is powerful.

Have you not heard about the bear story, the Super Bowl ad, the anti-vax campaigning, and the Covid conspiracy lies? If you’re American (and have not been living under a rock) you know this Kennedy doesn’t represent the Kennedy family values.

 

[AlterEgo]

The rest of the Kennedy family seems to have disowned Robert for being too weird, which is quite something for that family of oddballs.

 

[Merle Haggard]

Staying away from politics but I've read that a large number (possibly the majority) of U.S. Americans say in surveys that they've been abducted by an alien spaceship (I don't know how to do links on my new laptop so I'll leave it to the reader to check).
Obviously, they were all released; but not one of them asked for a momento, or even souvenired some trivial one such as a pencil...

 

[Busaholic]

But the endorsement of this Kennedy? Is it really that powerful? His main power was in splitting the vote. He's not going to be able to do that any more as he isn't standing. Those who were going to vote for him because of his crackpot views on things like vaccines will now probably just vote Trump, those who were going to vote for him on the basis of the Kennedy family name (a diminishing number I'd wager as his views become more widely known) will vote Harris. There's then probably a small subset who will just not vote at all.

Surely his endorsement isn't that powerful in reality, particularly when plenty of other people with the Kennedy name are out and out saying they disagree with him!

A common view on a lot of the American TV political chat shows is that a substantial proportion of the Kennedy supporters were unlikely to vote anyway, so definitely won't do so now. The man may bear the Kennedy name, but to attach himself to Trump when the latter had made such offensive remarks about him suggests to me he wants something for himself from a Trump presidency. In any case, his poll share was in steep decline, bottoming out at 2% just before he pulled out, and that one was commissioned by CBS, the most apolitical of the American TV networks.

Much more interesting I think is the HV4H movement, standing for Haley Voters for Harris, being some of the 4.4 million Republicans who voted for Nikki Haley as their candidate previously. Haley has publically threatened to sue its leaders, but this is widely regarded as a defensive move to allay the expected Trump kickback.

 

[GRALISTAIR]

Kennedy to be Secretary of State in a Trump administration?

 

[Tester]

Kennedy to be Secretary of State in a Trump administration?

Health Minister surely?

All vaccinations banned.

 

[Gloster]

Minister for Wildlife Protection?

 

[Busaholic]

Latest Republican election poster has three names on it;

TRUMP (large letters in white)
VANCE (smaller letters in red)
KENNEDY (smaller letters in white)

The effect, to me, is to draw the eye to the first and third names, as they take up about the same width on the poster, with the second being much thinner.

Three names on the poster when people will only be asked to vote for a President and Vice President? Or is Trump implying, in effect, that Kennedy, the man he denounced as a paedophile and worse until recently. would effectively become VP?

 

[GRALISTAIR]

Three names on the poster when people will only be asked to vote for a President and Vice President? Or is Trump implying, in effect, that Kennedy, the man he denounced as a paedophile and worse until recently. would effectively become VP?

I doubt it - but possibly Whitehouse Chief of Staff?

 

[brad465]

Latest Republican election poster has three names on it;

TRUMP (large letters in white)
VANCE (smaller letters in red)
KENNEDY (smaller letters in white)

The effect, to me, is to draw the eye to the first and third names, as they take up about the same width on the poster, with the second being much thinner.

Three names on the poster when people will only be asked to vote for a President and Vice President? Or is Trump implying, in effect, that Kennedy, the man he denounced as a paedophile and worse until recently. would effectively become VP?

Could that arrangement be counterproductive if Kennedy's name is still on the ballot in a number of states come November? Some Trump voters thinking Kennedy is part of the campaign could accidentally vote under Kennedy instead. I doubt it would be many, but in key states it could make a significant difference.

 

[YorkRailFan]

Sky News is reporting that Trump is considering dropping out of the TV debate with Harris.

Donald Trump has suggested he might back out of a scheduled debate with rival presidential hopeful Kamala Harris - as he says the network it is scheduled to be on is "hostile" to Republicans.

Speaking inside a Vietnamese restaurant in Virginia, Trump said he watched ABC's This Week on Sunday and did not like how how Republican senator Tom Cotton was treated.

"When I looked at the hostility of that, I said, 'Why am I doing it? Let's do it with another network'," Mr Trump told reporters.

He said he would "much rather do it on NBC" or another network, including CBS, CNN and "certainly I'd do it on Fox".

Mr Trump said he was "still thinking" about whether he wanted to take part at all, saying the Harris campaign wanted to "change the rules" around the debate.

US election: Donald Trump suggests he may back out of TV debate against Kamala Harris

Mr Trump says he was "still thinking" about whether he wanted to take part, saying the Harris campaign wanted to "change the rules" around the debate.

news.sky.com

Not surprised Trump said "certainly I'd do it on Fox", the audience would be all over him.

In previous debates, Trump came across as the candidate who was more with it, when compared to Biden. Now though, Harris will have that advantage, as Trump increasingly comes across as the candidate who is not with it so to speak.

 

[nlogax]

Sky News is reporting that Trump is considering dropping out of the TV debate with Harris.

He's now agreed to do it with mics muted which is a shame. Giving Trump enough figurative rope in a debate with Harris would be useful especially as she's reportedly upped her debating game.

 

[jon0844]

He's now agreed to do it with mics muted which is a shame. Giving Trump enough figurative rope in a debate with Harris would be useful especially as she's reportedly upped her debating game.

I expect he's going to waffle on about things and make himself look very silly. His base won't care and will spend the rest of the week/month/eternity saying how he owned Kamala, and that will be it.

 

[bspahh]

These are the polls from fivethirtyeight.com and the betting odds from Oddschecker

State Polls	Democrats	Republicans	State Betting	Democrats	Republicans
Pennsylvania	46.5%	44.1%	Pennsylvania	8/11	6/5
Arizona	45.1%	44.1%	Arizona	9/10	1/1
Georgia	45.9%	45.8%	Georgia	11/10	8/11
North Carolina	45.0%	45.5%	North Carolina	4/7	6/4

These are the updated polls and odds:

State Polls	Democrats	Republicans	State Betting	Democrats	Republicans
Pennsylvania	46.7%	44.9%	Pennsylvania	10/11	1/1
Arizona	45.7%	45.2%	Arizona	10/11	10/11
Georgia	46.6%	46.0%	Georgia	6/4	4/7
North Carolina	45.8%	46.0%	North Carolina	6/4	4/7

 

[nlogax]

These are the updated polls and odds:

State Polls	Democrats	Republicans	State Betting	Democrats	Republicans
Pennsylvania	46.7%	44.9%	Pennsylvania	10/11	1/1
Arizona	45.7%	45.2%	Arizona	10/11	10/11
Georgia	46.6%	46.0%	Georgia	6/4	4/7
North Carolina	45.8%	46.0%	North Carolina	6/4	4/7

Interesting, thanks for sharing and I'm keeping a particular eye on NC. If it moves any more towards the blue then I expect fireworks come November.

 

[Harpo]

What I find interesting is how seamlessly Harris has stepped in, almost as if she has always been the candidate. I guess she arrived to a collective sigh of relief?

 

[87electric]

Have you not heard about the bear story, the Super Bowl ad, the anti-vax campaigning, and the Covid conspiracy lies? If you’re American (and have not been living under a rock) you know this Kennedy doesn’t represent the Kennedy family values.

But JFK’s speech on 27.04.1961 alluded to a conspiracy that threatened America and its cherished values.
Would you not call out JFK as a conspiracy theorist with kooky ideas then? Or at least paranoid?