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The 2024 US presidential election.

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bspahh

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Are there any swing states where Harris is actually ahead right now, incidentally? If Trump is still marginally ahead in PA, AZ and GA then presumably he still gets enough electoral college votes to win, but if the trend in those three states is away from Trump then that obviously changes.

These are the polls from fivethirtyeight.com and the betting odds from Oddschecker

State PollsDemocratsRepublicansState BettingDemocratsRepublicans
Pennsylvania46.5%44.1%Pennsylvania8/116/5
Arizona45.1%44.1%Arizona9/101/1
Georgia45.9%45.8%Georgia11/108/11
North Carolina45.0%45.5%North Carolina4/76/4
 
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sannox

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The other factor is Robert Kennedy. He's only polling extremely low % but if he drops out where does that vote go.
 

brad465

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The other factor is Robert Kennedy. He's only polling extremely low % but if he drops out where does that vote go.
He was polling much higher when it was Biden vs Trump, often over 10% which hasn't been seen from a third party candidate this century IIRC. However once Biden dropped out Kennedy's polling has collapsed, and most of that will have gone to Harris.
 

nlogax

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And, with an awareness that this is bit tin foil hat, I think that he also sees Twitter as a way of influencing events in the direction he wants them to go in. If it turns out that Twitter cannot provide the influence I think that's another reason he'll want to get out of Twitter. What's the point of dealing with the aggro when its achieving nothing tangible.
Not so sure about this. One thing I’ve learned about Musk is his determination to double and triple down on lost causes and uninformed opinions. Proper Trump playbook-stuff. They both see tactical retreat and acknowledgement of mistakes as weakness.
 

bspahh

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Ah, ok, thanks - so the Dems in the lead in a couple of those.
If you click on the links to the poll data, the grey shading shows the 95% confidence intervals for the predictions.

For Pennsylvania, the gap is just about the same as the confidence interval. For the others, the difference is smaller than the confidence interval. However, a month ago, the Republicans had a lead that was bigger than the confidence interval for all of them, so its definitely an improvement for the Democrats, and it looks like the trend is for the Democrat percentage to increase.
 

Busaholic

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If you click on the links to the poll data, the grey shading shows the 95% confidence intervals for the predictions.

For Pennsylvania, the gap is just about the same as the confidence interval. For the others, the difference is smaller than the confidence interval. However, a month ago, the Republicans had a lead that was bigger than the confidence interval for all of them, so its definitely an improvement for the Democrats, and it looks like the trend is for the Democrat percentage to increase.
The same polling organisation has Trump leading by 0.2% in Nevada against by 5.8% on July 24th.
 

nlogax

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Next week in Chicago will be the time to hammer home compelling messages on policies and directions. As positive and popular as Harris and Walz are, good vibes won't get them a November win. They need tangible plans the electorate can engage with.
 

AlterEgo

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The other factor is Robert Kennedy. He's only polling extremely low % but if he drops out where does that vote go.
To another nutcase independent. The RFK vote is an anti-establishment vote so they’ll vote for another hallucinogenic loon or write in Ted Bundy instead.
 

Gloster

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I read somewhere that until recently the Republicans were in favour of Kennedy because they believed that he would appeal to a number of usually Democratic voters who were unhappy with Biden. Now the Republicans are worried because they fear that Kennedy’s potential transfers from the Democrats will switch back to Harris, but they will still lose voters to him.
 

uglymonkey

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From what I have seen of him, he seems slightly unhinged - unless he is doing it just for "clicks" and reaction? Not sure what his father would have said about it.
 

Cowley

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From what I have seen of him, he seems slightly unhinged - unless he is doing it just for "clicks" and reaction? Not sure what his father would have said about it.
No he is unhinged. :)
 

Busaholic

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No he is unhinged. :)
The Kennedy Curse continues. It'd be ironic if his percentage vote decided which of the other contenders won.

Well, the family do have a habit of abandoning dead bodies after car accidents.
Or, rather, abandoning a person stiil alive and not reporting the accident for hours afterwards, which ensured they died.
 

brad465

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The Kennedy Curse continues. It'd be ironic if his percentage vote decided which of the other contenders won.
Roosevelt, Kennedy, Clinton, Bush. The irony that a country which fought a war to be liberated from hereditary rulers has had a love affair with these families.
 

Cloud Strife

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Next week in Chicago will be the time to hammer home compelling messages on policies and directions. As positive and popular as Harris and Walz are, good vibes won't get them a November win. They need tangible plans the electorate can engage with.

Yup, Trump is slowly starting to comprehend that he needs to focus on policy, not insane rants designed to appeal to a fringe part of the Republican electorate.

I notice that the Democrats are really doing a good job with flooding the media with videos that show Harris and Walz as normal humans. It's one of the things that Trump can't and won't do, and I would argue Biden couldn't do a good job of it either.
 

nlogax

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Yup, Trump is slowly starting to comprehend that he needs to focus on policy, not insane rants designed to appeal to a fringe part of the Republican electorate.
Is he, though? Going by recent stories I see zero evidence of him acknowledgng that he badly needs to change tack and stop with the personal stuff. I am a day behind with news so a miracle may yet have occurred in the last 24 hours.
 

The Ham

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It's not impossible, and it might just happen. He's useless against Walz, not least because he simply takes himself way too seriously. Walz is going to have a field day by making random off the cuff (or not so random, but you know) remarks about Vance

The Republicans have to be wondering what on earth they can do now. Harris has pulled almost equal in PA, AZ and GA, and it's very clear that Trump's war on the Governor of Georgia is backfiring badly. Trump is still ahead, but he seems completely lost and unable to find a way to actually hit Harris.

IMO, it's worth watching the polls in North Carolina. if they start polling in favour of Harris, it's probably game over for Trump.

Of the cuff comments like "do you like the couch in the green room?"

At face value perfectly innocent, however would be difficult to answer without making him say something which could be seen as embarrassing or being long winded.
 

brad465

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It's hard to ignore Carole Cadwalladr with this, if Musk wants to contest a Democrat win in November should it occur, he could make Jan 6th 2021 look like nothing more than a pub brawl:


Just over four years ago, an insurrectionist mob found each other online, descended on Washington, stormed the Capitol and threatened the vice-president with a noose. But that was the good old days. We’re living in a different reality now. One in which the billionaires have been unchained.

Because back in the golden days of 2020, tech platforms, still reeling from a public backlash, had at least to look as if they gave a ****. Twitter employed 4,000-plus people in “trust and safety”, tasked with getting dangerous content off its platform and sniffing out foreign influence operations. Facebook tried to ignore public pressure but eventually banned political ads that sought to “delegitimise voting” and scores of academics and researchers in “election integrity” units worked to identify and flag dangerous disinformation.

But still, vast swathes of the American population became convinced the vote had been stolen and a violent mob almost pulled off a coup. Fast forward four years, and we’re now in a very different – and significantly worse – place.

Because while Kamala Harris is enjoying her hot girl summer and liberal America is sighing with relief, it’s to Britain that the US needs to look. To rioters in the streets and burning cars and contagious, uncontained racism spreading like wildfire across multiple platforms. To lies amplified and spread by algorithms long before the facts have been reported, laundered and whitewashed by politicians and professional media grifters.

Because just as Brexit prefigured Donald Trump’s election in 2016, there are signs that we are again the canary in the coalmine. The same transatlantic patterns, the same playbook, the same figures. But this time with a whole new set of dangerous, unchecked technological vulnerabilities to be exploited.

The streets are – for now – quiet. The violence has been crushed. But this is Britain, where extremist political violence is someone carrying a brick and throwing a chair leg. In America, there aren’t just automatic weapons and rights to openly carry firearms, there are actual militias. Regardless of how well Harris is doing in the polls, America is facing a singularly dangerous moment, whoever wins the election.

Because as Trump has already showed us and as Jair Bolsonaro learned, it’s not even necessarily about winning any more. Or even about a single day. The entire period between the result and the inauguration is an anything-can-happen moment not just for America but for the world.

In Britain, the canary has sung. This summer we have witnessed something new and unprecedented. The billionaire owner of a tech platform publicly confronting an elected leader and using his platform to undermine his authority and incite violence. Britain’s 2024 summer riots were Elon Musk’s trial balloon.

He got away with it. And if you’re not terrified by both the extraordinary supranational power of that and the potential consequences, you should be. If Musk chooses to “predict” a civil war in the States, what will that look like? If he chooses to contest an election result? If he decides that democracy is over-rated? This isn’t sci-fi. It’s literally three months away.

None of this is happening in a vacuum. For a brief minute after 2016, there was an attempt to understand how these tech platforms had been used to spread lies and falsehoods – or mis- and disinformation – as we came to know them and to try to prevent it. But that moment has passed. A years-long effort by Republican operatives to politicise the entire subject of “misinformation” has won. It barely even now exists in US tech circles. Anyone who suggests it does – researchers, academics, “trust and safety” teams – are now all part of the “censorship industrial complex”.

A US congressional committee headed by Republican Jim Jordan, convinced that big tech was silencing conservative voices, went on the warpath. It subpoenaed the email history of dozens of academics and has chilled an entire field of research. Whole university departments have collapsed, including the Stanford Internet Observatory whose election integrity unit provided rapid detection and analysis in 2020.

Even the FBI has been prevented from communicating with tech companies about what officials have warned is a coming onslaught of foreign disinformation and influence operations after a lawsuit brought by two attorneys general went all the way to the supreme court. The New York Times reported that it has only just now quietly resumed.
 

Busaholic

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I've just read a comment below a YouTube video showing Trump's increasingly deranged ravings at one of his rallies. In it, the writer describes his drooling audience as ''the gullibillies.'' :lol:
 

43096

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I've just read a comment below a YouTube video showing Trump's increasingly deranged ravings at one of his rallies. In it, the writer describes his drooling audience as ''the gullibillies.'' :lol:
MAGA now being “Must Act Gullible Always”?
 

brad465

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Robert Kennedy Jr is reported to be addressing the nation on Friday about his path forward. Given his campaign is reported to be out of funds, I'd say there's a good chance he's pulling out:


Robert Kennedy Jr to address nation about ‘path forward’​

Robert Kennedy Jr said he would address the nation on Friday about his “path forward” after a federal filing showed that his presidential campaign is essentially broke.
The campaign raised $5.6mn but spent $7.3mn in August, according to a new federal filing. It had $3.9mn cash on hand but owed $3.5mn in debts for security and travel.
Nicole Shanahan, his running mate who has given the independent ticket almost $15mn, received a refund of $925,000 on July 18 and was paid more than $266,000 for other expenses.
Shanahan recently said the ticket was considering dropping out of the race and endorsing Donald Trump.
 

brad465

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Addressing maybe a couple of hundred thousand. I'm highly doubtful that he'll have anything like a sizeable audience considering his recent polling.
He was polling remarkably well for a third party candidate just over a month ago, around 10-15%. However once Harris replaced Biden, RFK's polling collapsed to under 5%, so it was clear that many of his "supporters" were only they didn't want a rematch of Biden vs Trump.
 

Busaholic

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Robert Kennedy Jr is reported to be addressing the nation on Friday about his path forward. Given his campaign is reported to be out of funds, I'd say there's a good chance he's pulling out:

This is more down to legal restrictions than money i.e. being prevented by law from appearing on New York State's ballot paper for the coming Presidential election, which may lead to other states adopting the same stance.

I wonder how much money will accrue to Mr Kennedy from unknown sources in return for his endorsement of Trump. I only hope his withdrawal means as many votes going to Harris as to Trump in the seven crucial states.
 

brad465

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This is more down to legal restrictions than money i.e. being prevented by law from appearing on New York State's ballot paper for the coming Presidential election, which may lead to other states adopting the same stance.
Can you explain this point a bit more please?



If anyone knows how to take down Trump, it's Obama:


Ok this is a perfect comedic delivery.

Video attached
 
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