The Times: Labour considering cuts to Restoring Your Railway and dropping HS2 Euston

[Kite159]

You mean labour lied when they promised the world and will only actually deliver bugger all?

Consider me shocked

 

[yorksrob]

To be fair to Labour, they didn't seem to be promising a lot - at least in terms of rail.

I agree with @mike57 that the loss of local rail schemes/reopenings is a real shame. I suppose at least something that hasn't been started now could potentially still be started later - perhaps some safeguarding of those routes could be legislated for, in place of spades in the ground.

 

[chris11256]

Perhaps first on the chopping list will be all the road projects supposedly paid for by 'cancelled HS2 funding'

 

[Retorus]

It's a Times article. Remember that this is a Tory newspaper!

You’re thinking of The Telegraph.

 

[LNW-GW Joint]

What I do think it underlines is that talk of NPR and further Liverpool - Manchester - Leeds upgrades are just pie in the sky. There is no public funding available, and the chances getting private investment seems to be close to zero.
My view is that coupled with this there needs to be a review of how best to make use of what we have. Rolling stock orders, which I understand do not contribute to public debt need to be sized to avoid the current situation where we have short units running on sections of the network that are at capacity.

The tenet of the Sunak decisions on HS2 was that the same budgeted money would be spent on things that delivered better and quicker benefits.
If Reeves is to take a swipe at that core budget, that puts all the proposals at risk.
Burnham and Rotheram have been plotting what to do with the £12 billion saved from the HS2 Crewe-Manchester section, assuming they would decide how it was spent on Liverpool-Manchester links.
There was already the new line Manchester-Marsden (route never disclosed), and more recently a Huddersfield-Bradford line magicked out of nowhere.
Sunak also tossed in £3 billion for electrification in Yorkshire, and another £1 billion for North Wales wiring which was studiously ignored in Cardiff Bay.
We'll see today if any of that survives. Maybe the current TRU project is all we can expect.

There's plenty of useable off-lease EMUs and more to come as the Aventra roll-out completes.
DMUs are the problem, though again some will become available soon (TfW's 158s, EMR's 222s).
We badly need a regional/local bi-mode design to replace the Sprinter generation, though some would say it's the Stadler 755/756.

Interestingly, the parliamentary timetable for this afternoon contains the second reading of the passenger railway services bill, banning new private contracts.
It's going to be a busy afternoon.

 

[185]

You mean labour lied when they promised the world and will only actually deliver bugger all?

...as did lying Tories at for the last 14 years.

I see a department of value for money has been muted by Labour, perhaps that can go some way to claw back unnecessary expenditure - on the railway, the tiers of unnecessary or duplicative management and consultants, removal of many unnecessary processes, and elimination of leasing and train operating companies.

 

[yorksrob]

In the days when I used to read The Times, it always struck me as being quite balanced. Going up to £1.60 for the daily edition ended my readership.

 

[CdBrux]

To be fair to Labour, they didn't seem to be promising a lot - at least in terms of rail.

They carefully didn't promise much except an undefined definition of 'change'. They also, like other parties, didn't mention what they would do about the well known £20bn 'hole', in fact I don't recall the 'hole' being discussed at all, save for the IFS pointing out a conspiracy of silence.

In the meantime the new government is making choices for above inflation pay rises, not sure how that was accounted for in the 'fully costed' manifesto

The cancelling of infrastructure projects is marking a policy of not changing anything whatsoever when money becomes tight. It also offers no change to politicians blatantly telling huge porkies

...as did lying Tories at for the last 14 years.

I see a department of value for money has been muted by Labour, perhaps that can go some way to claw back unnecessary expenditure - on the railway, the tiers of unnecessary or duplicative management and consultants, removal of many unnecessary processes, and elimination of leasing and train operating companies.

Another quango to do the job of ministers? I somehow doubt the 'department for value for money' will actually be value for money!

 

[LNW-GW Joint]

...as did lying Tories at for the last 14 years.

Maybe Crossrail, HS2 Phase 1, EWR and GW/NW electrification are figments of my imagination.

 

[Narrowgauge725]

As HS2 was really non existent I would imagine all the promised projects that were going to get money will not be getting it. As for a new railway to Marsden I always thought it would never happen

 

[yorksrob]

They carefully didn't promise much except an undefined definition of 'change'. They also, like other parties, didn't mention what they would do about the well known £20bn 'hole', in fact I don't recall the 'hole' being discussed at all, save for the IFS pointing out a conspiracy of silence.

In the meantime the new government is making choices for above inflation pay rises, not sure how that was accounted for in the 'fully costed' manifesto

The cancelling of infrastructure projects is marking a policy of not changing anything whatsoever when money becomes tight. It also offers no change to politicians blatantly telling huge porkies

I think there could potentially still be change compared to the past three years - if they get the current railway running as it should. That would involve settling the various industrial disputes and ending the ridiculous funding arrangements between the DfT/railway/treasury. Also not scrapping rolling without replacement.

If we're no further along with the above this time next year, it will really be a disappointment

As HS2 was really non existent I would imagine all the promised projects that were going to get money will not be getting it. As for a new railway to Marsden I always thought it would never happen

I had my doubts. I'd settle for transpennine electrification TBH.

 

[Bletchleyite]

You mean labour lied when they promised the world and will only actually deliver bugger all?

Labour promised very little during the election campaign - they wisely kept their mouths largely shut on the basis that they would win anyway as long as they said nothing controversial. The only thing they promised was not to raise four (I think) specific taxes (into which one can clearly read that they did plan to raise other ones, because like it or not it is necessary).

The majority of "promises" such as the reinstatement of HS2 are in peoples' imaginations.

I had my doubts. I'd settle for transpennine electrification TBH.

Wire it and extend platforms for 200m trains, of which, conveniently, there'll be quite a few going spare soon. Job largely done.

As for Euston, it needs rebuilding whether HS2 goes there or not. It just doesn't work any more.

 

[yorksrob]

Wire it and extend platforms for 200m trains, of which, conveniently, there'll be quite a few going spare soon. Job largely done.

Absolutely. Could have been done thirty years ago without fuss.

 

[A0]

You'd be right. Over 70% of overall long distance travel is leisure travel, with visiting friends and family being the biggest component of this.

Cancelling spending on infrastructure is crazy. The UK already spends comparatively little on infrastructure. Its a huge drag on economy and one of the main reasons productivity has stalled. Its also a false economy to cancel HS2 to Euston for the sake of £6 billion. It means that the £45 billion+ spent on the rest of phase 1 has far lower returns. HS2 needs to get to Euston, it needs to get to Crewe, and it really should be linked to the East Midlands to maximise return.

Bit in bold - that's not really true though -

According to this (figures from 2021) the UK spends 0.9% of GDP on Inland Infrastructure, defined as "Inland infrastructure includes road, rail, inland waterways, maritime ports and airports"

Looking at the G7 countries the figures are as follows:

Canada 0.6%
France 0.9%
Germany 0.8%
Italy 0.9%
Japan 1.1%
United Kingdom 0.9%
United States 0.5%

Even Switzerland is only 1.3% of GDP. Those above 1.5% GDP are China and the remainder are small, fast developing countries which you would expect to see higher spending at this point as their economies are developing.

Infrastructure spending as GDP share, by country| Statista

China was the country with the highest infrastructure spending for inland transport in 2021, as it made up nearly a fifth of its GDP.

www.statista.com

 

[A0]

It's a Times article. Remember that this is a Tory newspaper!

Untrue! It came out for Labour in a leader prior to the Election, as it last had in 2005. I find no Tory bias in its reporting, otherwise I wouldn't have been reading it these last fifty years!

I think the best way to describe The Times is it is "pro establishment" rather than pro any one political party.

 

[Bradford1]

Cabinet Office minister Pat McFadden said the HS2 route would be re-examined as part of moves to save billions of pounds.

HS2 high speed rail link may end in London suburb not Euston, signals minister

Cabinet Office minister Pat McFadden says HS2 route will be re-examined

www.standard.co.uk

 

[paul1609]

Well I still favour an increase in duty on fuel. HGVs have had an easy ride for too long. That will raise money quickly. I know it will push inflation up a little

An increase in fuel duty would effectively end British Manufacturing Exports. The dutys too high already in comparison with our competitors.

 

[Topological]

There are enough issues with petrol companies not passing on lower oil prices to the pump prices.

Aren't Labour going after tax avoiders? Is there not 100's of billions of pounds in avoided tax available?

 

[deepthought]

You mean labour lied when they promised the world and will only actually deliver bugger all?

Consider me shocked

So the massive hole in the finances that has been discovered by Labour that was left by 14 years of Conservative mismanagement should be ignored?
The usual will happen Labour will get the country back on its feet over the next ten years hopefully and then the Conservatives will come in again and ruin it all again and so the cycle continues.

 

[yorksrob]

An increase in fuel duty would effectively end British Manufacturing Exports. The dutys too high already in comparison with our competitors.

Yet HGV's in this country don't pay tolls to the same extent that they do in France for example. Have France's manufacturing exports been ended by these costs ?

 

[A0]

There are enough issues with petrol companies not passing on lower oil prices to the pump prices.

Aren't Labour going after tax avoiders? Is there not 100's of billions of pounds in avoided tax available?

Not "100's of billions" - far, far less than that.

Figures from 2021 but £ 35bn of which about half was believed to be fraud related - the rest due to entirely legal behaviour.

Tax lost in UK amounts to £35bn – almost half, say campaigners, due to fraud

Annual snapshot from HMRC comes as public finances are under biggest strain since the second world war

www.theguardian.com

The amount of tax lost in Britain through non-payment, avoidance and fraud has increased to £35bn, according to official figures.

The latest available analysis for 2019-20, immediately before the pandemic struck, showed HMRC collected 95% of the tax it expected to receive. Officials said failure to “take reasonable care” accounted for a significant chunk of the tax gap at £6.7bn, with avoidance accounting for £1.5bn.

Error is estimated to be the cause of £3.7bn of the gap and £3bn is due to the “hidden economy”, which includes “ghosts” who keep their income secret from tax officials and “moonlighters” who only declare part of their earnings.


HMRC said the tax gap for wealthy individuals fell from £1.6bn to £1.5bn in 2019-20. The shortfall for inheritance tax fell from an estimated £425m to £350m.

The question then is how much of the £35bn is "one off" and how much recurring. If most of it is "one off" then you won't get that in future years.

 

[Topological]

So the massive hole in the finances that has been discovered by Labour that was left by 14 years of Conservative mismanagement should be ignored?
The usual will happen Labour will get the country back on its feet over the next ten years hopefully and then the Conservatives will come in again and ruin it all again and so the cycle continues.

Irrespective of the Conservatives management of the economy, there is now an Office for Budget Responsibility who publish accounts. The OBR also constantly gave negative appraisals of the prospects of the UK just as the Conservatives were trying to say they are doing a good job.

The fact is Labour were trying not to say what they would cut to pay for their expensive promises. It is just political convenience to create a "black hole".

It is also unusual to see Labour as the party that fixes the economy. Typically Labour fix society, while it is the Conservatives that fix the economy. Not sure there is a future in which the roles reverse.

 

[a_c_skinner]

leaving Euston as it is would be an act of monumental sabotage and abject idiocy

Indeed, even more than failing to project the new line to Crewe, which is saying something.

 

[LLivery]

I'm not sure in what world Labour promised the world, because it certainly wasn't this one. Having said that, Stephen Flynn was pressing about £20bn black hole and no one seemed to want to own up to it. Indeed, the Tories are still seemingly claiming it's all made up.

Maybe Crossrail, HS2 Phase 1, EWR and GW/NW electrification are figments of my imagination.

I'm old enough to remember all the 'Electric Spine'.

Midland and TransPennine electrification need to be done. Projects in the West Midlands are a problem; the costs are rising, but Andy Street claims everything was fine before he lost office. Just expect more and more blame games.

 

[mpthomson]

It's a Times article. Remember that this is a Tory newspaper!

The Times hasn't been a Tory newspaper for a very long time...

 

[paul1609]

Yet HGV's in this country don't pay tolls to the same extent that they do in France for example. Have France's manufacturing exports been ended by these costs ?

The motorway tolls in France are around 28cents/ km for a hgv. I suspect if we had a similar toll motorway network in the UK the hauliers could recover the costs by not sitting stationary on the M1/M6/25 etc for 2 hours following every minor incident.

 

[Bletchleyite]

The motorway tolls in France are around 28cents/ km for a hgv. I suspect if we had a similar toll motorway network in the UK the hauliers could recover the costs by not sitting stationary on the M1/M6/25 etc for 2 hours following every minor incident.

I think that's grass-always-greener mode there. Our motorways have far more capacity than the French ones. It's just France is much less dense.

Germany has an LGV-Maut (HGV tolling system) and I see no reason we shouldn't copy in order to level the playing field with foreign lorries.

 

[MarkWi72]

The number of *voters* driving cars, lorries etc massively outranks the - comparatively - smaller numbers of train users.
I think we know which way many decisions are likely to go.

Which is awful for Carbon Emission targets, the air quality and local environment, plus road travel. We need a reverse on this, before we become a third world country in terms of infrastructure (road , rail, public services)

 

[mpthomson]

They carefully didn't promise much except an undefined definition of 'change'. They also, like other parties, didn't mention what they would do about the well known £20bn 'hole', in fact I don't recall the 'hole' being discussed at all, save for the IFS pointing out a conspiracy of silence.

In the meantime the new government is making choices for above inflation pay rises, not sure how that was accounted for in the 'fully costed' manifesto

The cancelling of infrastructure projects is marking a policy of not changing anything whatsoever when money becomes tight. It also offers no change to politicians blatantly telling huge porkies


Another quango to do the job of ministers? I somehow doubt the 'department for value for money' will actually be value for money!

Labour had sight of all the finincial detail as far back as January this year. There may well be a hole but claiming that they didn't know about it is stretching credibility somewhat.

 

[snowball]

You mean labour lied when they promised the world and will only actually deliver bugger all?

Consider me shocked

Where is the evidence of these alleged promises? My impression is that they went out of their way to avoid promising anything.