Thoughts on the Trump presidency

[Cloud Strife]

I said Trump/Vance in #1 as I think that it is quite possible that Trump will not manage a full term.

There's a possibility that he will be effectively forced out if the Republicans don't secure major legislative advances by the midterms, especially if they lose the House and/or the Senate. While he has the trifecta, I wouldn't say it's a secure one, and the Democrats will be looking for any chance to pick off a couple of Congressmen.

Trump can get the easy wins (like firing people), but he won't get the big wins that his backers are looking for.

As for Ukraine, I suspect that reality will bite soon: the war is a very good way to get rid of old stockpiled weapons and to replace them with brand new ones. I wouldn't underestimate just how many people in Congress are likely to be paid off by defense contractors!

 

[SuspectUsual]

Since you ask I agree with his “putting America first” also I like the idea of sticking up for American workers rather than those who take societies benefits whilst making no contribution to that society

Including imposing import tariffs that hurt American consumers?

 

[ainsworth74]

There's a possibility that he will be effectively forced out if the Republicans don't secure major legislative advances by the midterms, especially if they lose the House and/or the Senate. While he has the trifecta, I wouldn't say it's a secure one, and the Democrats will be looking for any chance to pick off a couple of Congressmen.

I have indeed argued that I reckon they'll 25th Amendment Trump before this is over. But the timing will need to be careful. If they don't do it in the next few months then it'll not happen until much deeper into Trumps term as there's no way that Vance will want to burn a term by finishing off Trumps. If he does more than two years of Trumps remaining term he will use up one of his by virtue of the provisions of the 22nd Amendment.

 

[LYradial]

Including imposing import tariffs that hurt American consumers?

But are those consumers buying goods from countries that still burn coal to produce those goods, it’s a long term policy to create more jobs within America and I don’t think 10% on the import price will have much effect on the retail price.

 

[Magdalia]

Including imposing import tariffs that hurt American consumers?

The US economy is much more closed than, for example, the UK. US consumers spend a much smaller proportion of their total expenditure on imports than we do here in the UK.

 

[BingMan]

Where in the constitution does it enshrine the right to wear short sleeved shirts?

The right to bear arms in the 2nd amendment has been shown, by study of historic documents to be a spelling mistake. The original draught used the phrase bare arms and was written because of Benjamin Franklin's desire to wear sleeveless shirts.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 22 Jan 2025 ==

Democrats will be looking for any chance to pick off a couple of Congressmen.

Good old second amendment

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 22 Jan 2025 ==

I have indeed argued that I reckon they'll 25th Amendment Trump before this is over.

The 25th (section 3) requires the President himself declares himself unfit for office and gives him the right to rescind that declaration and resume office.
That was obviously written to cover periods of serious illness, not a President going do-lally.
There is no provision for other officials to oust the serving President no matter how mad he is.
Can you imagine Trump ever admitting that he is unfit for office.

 

[SuspectUsual]

The US economy is much more closed than, for example, the UK. US consumers spend a much smaller proportion of their total expenditure on imports than we do here in the UK.

16% of GDP. So at face value a 25% tariff on imports would equate to a one-off average 4% hike in consumer costs. Now, obviously not every consumer will import 16% of what they use, and not every source country will necessarily face a tariff, but ultimately its going to be inflationary

 

[nlogax]

I have indeed argued that I reckon they'll 25th Amendment Trump before this is over.

Since Trump won in November I've been certain that the 25th Amendment is how he'll leave the WH. Reality sets in for his presidency, his teams and his voters across a number of fronts. Some or all will realise they've been sold a pup and I don't discount this happening relatively quickly once tariffs come up against ever higher prices alongside the long-stagnant minimum wage. Even ignoring that I would be astonished if Trump's health would carry him through the next four years. Underneath the orange pancake is a pretty unhealthy elderly man.

 

[najaB]

I like the idea of sticking up for American workers rather than those who take societies benefits whilst making no contribution to that society

So you're in favour of immigration then, especially undocumented, because undocumented workkers contribute to economic activity while being unable to claim any beneifts.

 

[brad465]

As for Ukraine, I suspect that reality will bite soon: the war is a very good way to get rid of old stockpiled weapons and to replace them with brand new ones. I wouldn't underestimate just how many people in Congress are likely to be paid off by defense contractors!

Today Trump has warned Putin if he doesn't come to a settlement the US will increase sanctions. How effective this will be is questionable, given a) there's not much left to sanction and b) Putin actually needs to prolong the war for his survival; but, whether as a result of his own thinking or someone else's lobbying (or both), Trump so far isn't planning to give Putin a free pass.

 

[Gloster]

The 25th (section 3) requires the President himself declares himself unfit for office and gives him the right to rescind that declaration and resume office.
That was obviously written to cover periods of serious illness, not a President going do-lally.
There is no provision for other officials to oust the serving President no matter how mad he is.
Can you imagine Trump ever admitting that he is unfit for office.

See Section 4 of the Amendment.

 

[LYradial]

So you're in favour of immigration then, especially undocumented, because undocumented workkers contribute to economic activity while being unable to claim any beneifts.

I think you completely misunderstood what I mean by “societies benefits”. The benefits that I refer to are things like buses trains a supply of potable water, food enough in the shops, some measure of law and order,pavements to walk on etc etc, all these things are provided by the toil of others called workers, they are the people who should come first and be appropriately rewarded

there are plenty of people who do ‘non jobs’ that benefit nobody, in my world they take second place.

 

[SuspectUsual]

there are plenty of people who do ‘non jobs’ that benefit nobody, in my world they take second place.

Can you give some examples of these non jobs?

 

[trainswitheddy]

Can you give some examples of these non jobs?

Head of D.O.G.E., SCOTUS justices, members of congress, Vice President and President to name a few

 

[najaB]

I think you completely misunderstood what I mean by “societies benefits”. The benefits that I refer to are things like buses trains a supply of potable water, food enough in the shops, some measure of law and order,pavements to walk on etc etc, all these things are provided by the toil of others called workers, they are the people who should come first and be appropriately rewarded

The ponit still stands. The net contribution of first-generation immigrants to the USA economy is overwhelingly positive. The propensity for foreign-born people to be in work is also siginifcantly higher than native-born.

 

[LYradial]

Can you give some examples of these non jobs?

How about the entire supermarket aisle with a dozen different brands of bottled water in all shapes and sizes, totally unnecessary and producing huge quantities of waste plastic, waste plastics are a major cause of pollution on our .

i could produce a very long list of disposable products that are neither use nor ornament, a phrase that gives away my age

 

[SuspectUsual]

How about the entire supermarket aisle with a dozen different brands of bottled water in all shapes and sizes, totally unnecessary and producing huge quantities of waste plastic, waste plastics are a major cause of pollution on our .

i could produce a very long list of disposable products that are neither use nor ornament, a phrase that gives away my age

So you’ve gone from “non jobs” to basically attacking the principles of capitalism and competition. Should we just have one officially state sanctioned brand of bottled water?!

 

[Harpo]

Looking at photos of Trump signing presidential orders, I was fixated on his signature and how it’s more like a logo or graphic than a signature.

I also wondered if he does an up/down/up/down count as he does it.

 

[m0ffy]

How about the entire supermarket aisle with a dozen different brands of bottled water in all shapes and sizes, totally unnecessary and producing huge quantities of waste plastic, waste plastics are a major cause of pollution on our .

i could produce a very long list of disposable products that are neither use nor ornament, a phrase that gives away my age

You do realise Trump is a capitalist right? None of that will go away.

What part of any of his history indicates that he is in any way pro worker?

 

[LYradial]

I think the democratically elected Donald Trump was the better of the two candidates, I see nothing wrong with his desire to put America first and do not think anything he does will change the world, remember there are about 2000 million in Asia and another 200 million in India, it concerns me that we are totally dependant on others for some basic needs

 

[brad465]

I think the democratically elected Donald Trump was the better of the two candidates, I see nothing wrong with his desire to put America first and do not think anything he does will change the world, remember there are about 2000 million in Asia and another 200 million in India, it concerns me that we are totally dependant on others for some basic needs

Can you clarify this please? The population of India is definitely more than 200 million.

 

[MotCO]

Looking at photos of Trump signing presidential orders, I was fixated on his signature and how it’s more like a logo or graphic than a signature.

I also wondered if he does an up/down/up/down count as he does it.

It looked more like my ECG

 

[LYradial]

Can you clarify this please? The population of India is definitely more than 200 million.

My bad, missed a zero off, the actual figure for India as opposed to the Indian sub continent was in 2023 1.429 billion, the 349 million of the United States is small by comparison

 

[najaB]

My bad, missed a zero off, the actual figure for India as opposed to the Indian sub continent was in 2023 1.429 billion, the 349 million of the United States is small by comparison

Yet somehow the 350 million in the USA emit more CO2 than the 1.3 billion in India (and not by a small amount!)

 

[Wilts Wanderer]

It’s being reported that the text of the executive order signed by Trump declaring the existence of only two biological genders has a rather unexpected side-effect. Extract of the wording:

"'Sex' shall refer to an individual’s immutable biological classification as either male or female," Trump's executive order declares. "'Female' means a person belonging, at conception, to the sex that produces the large reproductive cell. 'Male' means a person belonging, at conception, to the sex that produces the small reproductive cell."

As the fertilised embryo is invariably initially female (the other male chromosome does not activate for a distinct period of time into the pregnancy), the order has essentially amended the legal gender of every person in the US to female.

What makes this funnier is that I think this means Donald Trump is now officially the first female US President.

Presumably when they ban same-sex marriage, Melania will be freed inadvertently…

 

[najaB]

As the fertilised embryo is invariably initially female (the other male chromosome does not activate for a distinct period of time into the pregnancy), the order has essentially amended the legal gender of every person in the US to female.

This is an epic fail!

I knew something was wrong with this when I read it but it's been too many years since my first year uni biology classes to figure out what it is.

 

[Cloud Strife]

Today Trump has warned Putin if he doesn't come to a settlement the US will increase sanctions. How effective this will be is questionable, given a) there's not much left to sanction and b) Putin actually needs to prolong the war for his survival; but, whether as a result of his own thinking or someone else's lobbying (or both), Trump so far isn't planning to give Putin a free pass.

Yes, there's really not much left that can be done. The big one is the Russian shadow fleet, and one possible way of doing it could be to give Ukraine a fleet of fast craft that are capable of intercepting large, slow moving vessels. NATO is perfectly capable of tracking the shadow fleet, and a few seizures at sea would certainly shake things up.

 

[DustyBin]

Yes, there's really not much left that can be done. The big one is the Russian shadow fleet, and one possible way of doing it could be to give Ukraine a fleet of fast craft that are capable of intercepting large, slow moving vessels. NATO is perfectly capable of tracking the shadow fleet, and a few seizures at sea would certainly shake things up.

Having read his statement, it could be interpreted as putting the “nuclear” option of declaring Russia a terrorist state on the table.

 

[Cowley]

Since Trump won in November I've been certain that the 25th Amendment is how he'll leave the WH. Reality sets in for his presidency, his teams and his voters across a number of fronts. Some or all will realise they've been sold a pup and I don't discount this happening relatively quickly once tariffs come up against ever higher prices alongside the long-stagnant minimum wage. Even ignoring that I would be astonished if Trump's health would carry him through the next four years. Underneath the orange pancake is a pretty unhealthy elderly man.

This is what I’ve been thinking about too. I’m struggling to see him doing a full term if I’m honest, but then my predictions aren’t always great so who knows?

 

[trainswitheddy]

This is what I’ve been thinking about too. I’m struggling to see him doing a full term if I’m honest, but then my predictions aren’t always great so who knows?

I'm still not sure, especially with the voters. He's managed to convince a majority of those that voted this time (presumably) that the election in 2020 was stolen from him I don't think they'll wish to admit their own fault at this point