It is beginning to seem like an overly strong focus with the T1/T2 connection in Aberystwyth and that is tainting your view.
The interchange at Dolgellau was always a long standing feature of the operations when it was the 94/2 in CW days and the X32/X94 in TrawsCambria. It usually involved a 10-15 min window at Eldon Square. In that respect, the T2 and T3 continue that tradition. That there is a 15 min window is just a reflection that you have a number of vehicles arriving at the same time and any one of them can be delayed for whatever reason - the A5 through Llangollen is particularly bad for that.
You have stated that "The Bevan Foundation Review recommended the T3 service should run from Wrexham to Aberystwyth (82 miles). connecting with the key towns of Welshpool and Newtown". That isn't actually true. That Winckler states that there should be a feasibility report on routeing it to Aberystwyth rather than Barmouth; that much is true but not that it was recommended. Similarly, you mention that "The T3 Wrexham to Barmouth service (58 miles) was the next service to be introduced and was the preferred option of Welsh Government officials. Barmouth was not a key town and the route was not strategically important". Again, the report actually says that there is "a consensus amongst stakeholders that there is a strong strategic case for the long-distance, north-south corridors" but also "Some stakeholders felt that the strategic case for the rest of the current network (i.e. Aberystwyth – Cardigan – Haverfordwest and Wrexham – Barmouth) was not quite as strong as for the north-south routes. That said, patronage indicates considerable demand.... These corridors also generate a reasonable number of enquiries to Traveline Cymru." - that isn't the same as it not being important. The route of the T3 is long standing, having been like it since it was the X94 and the D93/4 before that as a rail replacement service. In fact, the Winckler report stated that "The focus of effort in the short term should be on implementation of the five core TrawsCymru routes rather than expansion of the network as follows: Service T3 (Wrexham – Barmouth) should be progressed through a Quality Bus Partnership".
Whilst she did indeed mention the feasibility report, and this hasn't been pursued. However, there are some actually pretty logical reasons why that perhaps hasn't been pursued viz:
- Would the T2 be truncated at Dolgellau? If not, then you would require doubling the service from Dolgellau to Aberystwyth so another two vehicles
- If done, what would be the impact on the X28?
- What would be the impact on the Barmouth to Dolgellau service? Removal of long standing links there?
Such issues were not addressed by the Winckler report and, to be honest, there's a lot of stuff in there that also doesn't exactly hold water. A proposal like the T7 Carmarthen, Llandovery, Brecon and Abergavenny that, if you know the area, is really two routes but with a big gap in the middle of nothingness (with the exception of Trecastle).
Don't get me wrong, I think there's a lot to criticise WG and the local authorities for with TC. The idea of the T10 trundling to serve the key traffic objective of Pentrefoelas was laughable were it not so serious. In times of limited funds, it would be better to invest in routes that might have some merit like a Brecon - Abergavenny - Monmouth - Newport or improving Carmarthen - Llandeilo - Llandovery. There are bigger fish to fry than the lack of connectivity in Aberystwyth between two buses services for which there will be limited crossover.
You were correct that Winckler states that there should be a feasibility report on routeing the T3 to Aberystwyth rather than Barmouth. That feasibility study has not been carried out twice in 2014 and 2018.
The gist of your argument is that the WAG were correct to not carry out a feasibility study because
“”The interchange at Dolgellau was always a long standing feature of the operations. and the route of the T3 is long standing, having been like it since it was the X94 and the D93/4 before that as a rail replacement service.””. I would say that this is the reason why the Trawscymru network is failing . The way the network is being developed is wrong. Why should a strategic long distance route be introduced by taking over a long standing 53 year old route that has 50% of its route along narrow B roads following a closed railway line ? The route has had no thought put into it , no changes from 53 years ago and because of that it cannot meet the Traffic Commissioner’s guidelines to arrive within 5 minutes of its published arrival time. The word interchange is also a misnomer when applied to Dolgellau compared to Bangor,Wrexham,Newtown,Aberystwyth, Cardigan, Carmarthen,Swansea, Cardiff.
In 2016 the T2 service was using a 15 min window to wait for the T3 (5 mins per the timetable in line with the Traffic Commissioner’s guidelines and 10 minutes delayed departure.). The Traffic Commissioner forced the WAG to reduce the 10 minutes delayed departure to the legal level of 5 minutes .In January 2018 the 15 min window was reinstated by 10 mins per the timetable and 5 minutes delayed departure.
I do not believe anyone could argue with the fact that a 15 min window for the T2 in Dolgellau will affect connections in Aberystwyth and that proved to be the case in January 2018.with 3 connections affected. The Traffic Commissioner’s guidelines state
“”Buses should not depart from starting points and registered principal timing points more than 1 minute early or more than 5 minutes late, or arrive at the final destination point more than 5 minutes late. In general, 95% of buses should meet this standard. The traffic commissioners do not expect to find undue recovery time inserted in the timetable towards the end of a journey.”” . There is therefore some doubt whether the 15 minute window introduced in January 2018 for the T3 from Wrexham only 9 miles from its destination in Barmouth is following the Traffic Commissioner’s guidelines .My own observations indicate that less than 90% of T3 services comply with the Traffic Commissioner’s guideline’s at timing points and the fine for under 90% compliance is £100 - £250 per authorised vehicle;
The T3 route is failing and passenger numbers are declining.
Service ---- 2014/15 ---- 2016/17
T1 ------- 240,211 ---- 273,938
T2 ------- 108,588 ---- 234,430
T3 ------- 187,718 ---- 166,637
T5 ------- 417,336 ---- 434,350
T1/T2/T5 - 766,135 ---- 942,718
T2/T3 ---- 296,306 ---- 401,067
You provide “logical” reasons why the feasibility report on routeing the T3 to Aberystwyth rather than Barmouth. hasn't been pursued ie
“Would the T2 be truncated at Dolgellau? If done, what would be the impact on the X28? What would be the impact on the Barmouth to Dolgellau service? “. This prejudges the feasibility report as there is an assumption in those questions that the Wrexham to Aberystwyth route would follow the Wrexham to Barmouth route with the 20 mile diversion through the Transport Ninister’s constituency of South Clwyd on minor B roads. I would suggest the feasibility study would identify a better route. I am just as guilty of prejudging the route by quoting a direct route through Welshpool/Newtown/Llanidloes. The T2 and X28 routes would be unaffected if this direct route was employed and the T2 would be released from the “15 minute window “ straitjacket in Dolgellau.. The Wrexham to Barmouth route obviously needs a service so why not make it X94 or D93/4 just as it was before since the current T3 follows exactly the same route.
The final comments were
“”There are bigger fish to fry than the lack of connectivity in Aberystwyth between two buses services for which there will be limited crossover. It would be better to invest in routes that might have some merit like a Brecon - Abergavenny - Monmouth - Newport or improving Carmarthen - Llandeilo - Llandovery. “”. The above passenger figures indicate there is not
“limited crossover” in Aberystwyth compared to Dolgellau. The 3 services using the Aberystwyth interchange have nearly 3 times the footfall of the 2 services using the Dolgellau interchange. I have no experience of the routes you quote but I would have thought they would have no more merit than the T2/T1 (Bangor/Carmarthen) corridor which is the only public transport option to link North West and South West Wales.
I would agree entirely that new routes should be invested in , but only after diligent feasibility studies which are published and open for public consultation. The T10 and T12 services were arrived at with no such feasibility study Can we have no more confidential decisions on routes made by individuals. No more 53 year old T3 routes, introduced on a nod and a wink, and trundling along B roads .No more T10 routes that have no passenger base, and an interchange at Corwen with the T3 heaping yet more misery on the T2 service. No more tortuous T12 routes produced by cobbling together a number of local bus services. The WAG should stick to the principle that Trawscymru is a network of strategic services linking the key towns of Wales. The diversions down the B roads should be left to be covered by Local Buses.
