Treasury Blocking electrification plans

[Class 170101]

Network capacity is already nearly there:

Report shows huge scale of UK energy storage boom

www.imeche.org

I suppose the question has to be asked, does the National Grid (transmission system) have sufficient capacity to be be able to cope with 're-filling' storage systems on a good power generating day (eg during Storm Arwen) even when demand on a day like Storm Arwen is satisfied, its been said on here that sometimes operators of wind turbines have been paid not to supply to the grid but clearly when the wind blows or the sun shines or the tides are good we need to be ready to collect said power regardless of actual demand at any given time for its use.

OLE installers have as others have said, been well employed on renewals across the board, plus on other projects like HS1. It is true to say more were needed when the peak of work came in for GW, NW, West Mids and Scotland, but not that many more. It is an international trade now, much of Scotland was wired by Italians.

It's nice that it's an international trade, but not that good for a rolling programme !

Brexit isn't exactly going to help that then, I assume OLE installers aren't on a shortage list occupation.

You might say that Minister, I couldn’t possibly comment. Although it’s fair to say that those that have been given initial feasibility have not been ‘accepted onto the programme’. They are being tested to see if it is worth spending some proper money on feasibility. As I’ve posted elsewhere I’d be surprised if more than a third of the 38 will get beyond this stage (which is not proper feasibility), and all the unsuccessful projects will know well before the next election. Assuming there’s not an election next year!

Not a General Election probably, but almost certainly local elections where the Tories see, likely to get a kicking, and richly deserved after some of their antics of the last few weerks, though I don't really see much in a story for those gatherings at government offices where the workers would have been anyway, covid won't care whether the same individuals were working or partying in the same space.

 

[geoffk]

There is a nearby road junction to me. It has a lot of accidents and could do with traffic lights. The local council won't do that as they say not enough people have been seriously injured or died YET. Risk is risk wherever and whatever it is.

I worked for a highway authority years ago and was told that there was a threshold for personal injury accidents (so many in a year) before they would spend money on remedial measures like traffic calming or signals. I can't find a reference to any figures on line but someone may know.

 

[Meerkat]

Brexit isn't exactly going to help that then, I assume OLE installers aren't on a shortage list occupation.

I would imagine that if a lack of them is raising the cost of government funded schemes they will get on the list pretty quick!
Especially as I assume they are temporary workers rather than permanent immigrants.
They may well be a bit tight on the qualifications required - ie they have to be high skill, high experience rather than bottom level and the quickest to train locals up for.

 

[Elecman]

It’s safe to say that NRs electricity bill is at a substantial discount to the rate paid by domestic consumers.

Very much so

 

[Mag_seven]

Can we please stick to the topic at hand here which is about the treasury blocking electrification plans.

If anyone wants to discuss anything else such as power stations in general they are welcome to start a new thread in the appropriate forum section.

thanks

 

[Railcoach]

It’s ironic that if BR’s recommendations were followed through in 1981 we’d have all mainlines (see map) not only electrified, but paid for, by 2008!

Thanks this is brilliant material that i can use

 

[Zontar]

Thanks this is brilliant material that i can use

For what if you don't mind me asking... intrigued!

 

[Mikey C]

It’s ironic that if BR’s recommendations were followed through in 1981 we’d have all mainlines (see map) not only electrified, but paid for, by 2008!

Interesting that a few of the lines in the southeast that WERE electrified aren't on that map

 

[507020]

Interesting that a few of the lines in the southeast that WERE electrified aren't on that map

A lot of the electrification outside the south east that actually has been (or is being) done since then wasn't on the map including Bournemouth - Weymouth, Barnt Green - Redditch, Leeds - Bradford Forster Square, Skipton and Ilkley, Edinburgh - Glasgow via Shotts and Bolton - Wigan.

 

[BrianW]

A lot of the electrification outside the south east that actually has been (or is being) done since then wasn't on the map including Bournemouth - Weymouth, Barnt Green - Redditch, Leeds - Bradford Forster Square, Skipton and Ilkley, Edinburgh - Glasgow via Shotts and Bolton - Wigan.

A useful reminder that priorities- economic. political, environmental, technological ... change, and should.

 

[507020]

A useful reminder that priorities- economic. political, environmental, technological ... change, and should.

The main lines, e.g. ECML, GWML, MML remain priorities though, as do TransPennine and CrossCountry routes etc. Of the examples I listed, Weymouth was supposed to have 210s detached from 455s at Bournemouth but ended up with 442s when these were cancelled in favour of 150s, Barnt Green - Redditch was done to appease voters in a by-election, the Airedale and Wharfedale lines claim to be an offshoot of the ECML, but while excellent, it is inexplicable that they were done when Harrogate, which was and remains a higher priority wasn’t. All Edinburgh - Glasgow lines have now been electrified only because Scotland is sensible about electrification and Wigan - Bolton or rather Lostock Junction - Wigan Station Junction hasn’t been done yet.

 

[yorksrob]

The main lines, e.g. ECML, GWML, MML remain priorities though, as do TransPennine and CrossCountry routes etc. Of the examples I listed, Weymouth was supposed to have 210s detached from 455s at Bournemouth but ended up with 442s when these were cancelled in favour of 150s, Barnt Green - Redditch was done to appease voters in a by-election, the Airedale and Wharfedale lines claim to be an offshoot of the ECML, but while excellent, it is inexplicable that they were done when Harrogate, which was and remains a higher priority wasn’t. All Edinburgh - Glasgow lines have now been electrified only because Scotland is sensible about electrification and Wigan - Bolton or rather Lostock Junction - Wigan Station Junction hasn’t been done yet.

455's to Bournemouth ?

Dear God !

 

[507020]

455's to Bournemouth ?

Dear God !

That would have been when they were first introduced 40 years ago and brand new…

 

[43066]

455's to Bournemouth ?

Dear God !

Don’t knock them - we will miss them when they’re gone!

About my one remaining railway bucket list item (which I’ll sadly never achieve) is driving a 455.

 

[yorksrob]

Don’t knock them - we will miss them when they’re gone!

About my one remaining railway bucket list item (which I’ll sadly never achieve) is driving a 455.

Even as an EPB fanatic, I have to admit that they wouldn't be suitable for regular services from London to Bournemouth. 455's would be much worse !

 

[norbitonflyer]

455's to Bournemouth ?

Dear God !

Presumably more like a DC version of the 317 than a suburban-spec 455.
Following SR classification practice, classes 451/452 perhaps?

 

[507020]

Presumably more like a DC version of the 317 than a suburban-spec 455.
Following SR classification practice, classes 451/452 perhaps?

The 455s are a DC version of the 317s, just as the 210s were to be the Diesel version. You can have whatever seats on them you like.

 

[Watershed]

The 455s are a DC version of the 317s, just as the 210s were to be the Diesel version. You can have whatever seats on them you like.

Not 100% equivalent though, the 317s are 100mph units whilst the 455s can just about manage 75mph with a good tailwind.

 

[507020]

Not 100% equivalent though, the 317s are 100mph units whilst the 455s can just about manage 75mph with a good tailwind.

What I’m trying to say is 317s and 455s were the contemporary AC and DC EMUs at the time the Class 210 DEMU was proposed initially to be interoperable with both of them. If the concept of DEMU-EMU multiple working with the Diesel portion detached somewhere e.g. Bournemouth, Basingstoke, Norwich, Ely, Hazel Grove, Walsall, appropriate interiors and heating would have been given to the EMUs that would have been built to run the service. Once this proposal was dropped, the 455s we ended up with were specced to replace Class 508 75mph suburban units.

 

[andyjd70]

Government bonds.
Given the low rates currently on government bonds it is quite likely that reduced operating costs/increased income could pay for it.
I think your final question doesn't appreciate the difference between government capital investment and personal spending.

And when they have to replace those bonds at potentially much higher rates when they expire (which we have no way of forecasting) that’s a recipe for a future financial disaster. Unfortunately national debt isn’t like a mortgage you pay off it has a habit of getting bigger and bigger or at best not increasing, so all those bonds will need renewing down the line.

 

[Starmill]

And when they have to replace those bonds at potentially much higher rates when they expire (which we have no way of forecasting) that’s a recipe for a future financial disaster.

Actually, the opposite is true. The UK has much longer debt maturity than most other developed countries, the average is around 15 years.


(Financial Times, 2020)

Currently the government can sell a thirty year bond at 1.66%. That's pretty much 100% safe, we know for sure that by borrowing to improve the efficiency of public transport we can generate a return within thirty years and also cover the cost of servicing the debt.

Where else are investors going to go if they decide that British debt is too risky for them? France? US? Japan? They've all got worse debt to GDP ratios than the UK now. Not everyone can buy German Bunds. Some investors don't want to at the negative rates they're currently at.

 

[InOban]

I believe that many of these bonds are index linked, so although the interest rate may be low , the capital sum is increasing.

 

[Starmill]

I believe that many of these bonds are index linked, so although the interest rate may be low , the capital sum is increasing.

It's around a quarter of our current outstanding. So the gain from the other three quarters being devalued over time outweighs the quarter on which interest payable is rising.

 

[GRALISTAIR]

---- and Wigan - Bolton or rather Lostock Junction - Wigan Station Junction hasn’t been done yet.

In fairness it is in progress though.

 

[507020]

In fairness it is in progress though.

Yes fortunately. It’s very interesting to see the work progressing when I go on the line.

 

[GRALISTAIR]

Yes fortunately. It’s very interesting to see the work progressing when I go on the line.

Eye watering sums of money for cost being quoted though. In a way I dont blame the treasury for being cautious.

 

[furnessvale]

Eye watering sums of money for cost being quoted though. In a way I dont blame the treasury for being cautious.

Surely it would be fairly simple to compare the UK with other developed countries?

Are costs similar, in which case so be it. If costs are significantly different, how do THEY do it.

 

[Starmill]

Surely it would be fairly simple to compare the UK with other developed countries?

Are costs similar, in which case so be it. If costs are significantly different, how do THEY do it.

We already know what causes electrification to cost a lot in this country:

• Expensive, scare labour
• Limited opportunities to deploy economies of scale
• Very dated infrastructure

The first is part of the cause of general construction industry inflation, which has been ahead of market-wide inflation since before the current crisis and continues to be so. This could be tackled a bit with long term funding, but as every business in the country doing construction work is facing this element of cost there's nothing much we can do.

The second is endemic to this country and again can only be solved with long term funding which currently isn't forthcoming.

The third is even more difficult to deal with because you have so much to do before you can get to electrification, mainly it comes from immunisation of the signalling and other equipment and creating appropriate clearance. Sometimes immunisation is impractical on near life expiry equipment so it needs to wait until replacement, but resources to install new signalling are also limited and may be required more urgently somewhere else. It may also be highly desirable to look at other non-electrification related work such as renewals, crossing closures or upgrades, permissible speed increases, platform extensions, step free access and junction modifications before designing any electrification because doing them afterwards becomes more difficult. If the route is historic, but a business case for electrification can be made, then at least some of those other upgrades are likely to be needed soon anyway.

The cost challenge has been looking at some of the specifics to see if they can bring down the cost of the overall work by altering the approach, most notably this is being done with clearances. However, this won’t change the game, although it may give greater predictability and a single digit percentage point cost reduction.

There is also some suggestion more recently that common parts have become more expensive as a result of the rising prices of steel and concrete. I don't know what the situation is there or if it is significant but it very well may be. Unfortunately the global prices of important commodities such as these cannot really be influenced by the UK.

If you wanted to look closer at the costs of electrification between Newcraighall and Tweedbank for example you'd probably find them very low compared to some routes in other developed countries, but that's not really much of a useful comparison. Even then, you need to do other work such as remodeling at Portobello Jn and building a second platform at Brunstane if you want to increase the service, so you still need more capital spend than just the wires to make the business case convincing.

 

[GRALISTAIR]

Indeed I started a thread a few year back entitled 'Electrification is not just about Electrification"

Electrification is not just about electrification

Electrification is not just about electrification. OK I know I am probably preaching to the choir here but electrification is more than just about electrification. In the USA they let all their infrastructure decay. In the UK there is a more enlightened attitude and infrastructure does get...

www.railforums.co.uk

Electrification is not just about electrification.
OK I know I am probably preaching to the choir here but electrification is more than just about electrification. In the USA they let all their infrastructure decay. In the UK there is a more enlightened attitude and infrastructure does get maintained and renewed.

1. Electrification usually results in quite a lot of infrastructure being maintained and renewed which is getting close to end of life anyway. Re-boring and renewing the Farnworth tunnel is one excellent example. Some will point to this as a reason for high costs but if the infrastructure needs maintaining/renewing anyway it is not really so.
2. Electrification results in faster acceleration, journey time improvements along with capacity improvements
3. Electrification results in lower maintenance cost with less wear and tear on the track etc.
4. Electrification allows us to go to a lower carbon strategy/economy and thus more “green”.
5. Electrification weans us off crude oil which means we are less dependent on world trouble spots such as the Middle East.
6. Electrification totally of certain areas such as Birmingham New Street (all services) will get rid of diesel particulates which have been shown to be troublesome.
7. It will create jobs and the subsequent (albeit reduced) maintenance will help those jobs.
8. It helps the economy to not be too reliant on service industry jobs, but on engineering etc. which is good. This was touted over the years to be a reason the German economy is so strong.
9. It reduces noise pollution. (Onboard too)

 

[furnessvale]

So the consensus is that electrification itself in the UK, ie stringing the wires, disregarding the add on cost in this country of bridge rebuilds etc due to our loading gauge, is no more expensive than the norm for other countries?

Any additional costs in the UK come from our desire to completely modernise the railway in question at the same time? Is the Forum jury also confident that when analysed, the cost of each of those add ons is comparable?