UK rolling stock in 2044

[quailking14]

20 years from now, what rolling stock could be riding UK railways? Which of today's trains will still be in service?

also, it would be good to discuss lore around fictional rolling stock indeed, especially their class number, traction type and if they're a locomotive / multiple unit.

 

[YorkRailFan]

Sprinters will still be in service because a Government hasn't invested in new rolling stock for rural services. XC will still be operating Voyagers. Avanti will likely have a replacement for the Pendolinos, HSTs and IC225s will be gone.

 

[Philip]

Class 185s/350s and Voyagers/Pendolinos will probably still be in service, 168s & 170s possibly. CAF DMUs very likely. Sprinters and Coradias very unlikely.

 

[quailking14]

Sprinters and Coradias very unlikely

Very true given their age. I imagine that CAF / stadler trains might have replaced them. I am also curious to wonder how long the class 66s will remain in service?

 

[YorkRailFan]

Sprinters and Coradias very unlikely.

Never underestimate the 158s, there is no clear replacement for them.

 

[PTR 444]

Class 377s and 444/450s will probably be the oldest trains in service by then

 

[Snow1964]

Quite interesting considering 2044, because if presume trains have typical life of 35-40 years then around half current fleet should still be around.

As there was virtually no trains introduced 1995-2000 there is uneven age profile of overall fleet. So could there be any 50+ year old trains in 2044

 

[YorkRailFan]

Class 377s and 444/450s will probably be the oldest trains in service by then

I think 158s will be the oldest on the network.

 

[quailking14]

Quite interesting considering 2044, because if presume trains have typical life of 35-40

I was just thinking about 20 years into the future, considering that many trains have been introduced between 2004 and now. However, I was thinking that 2054 would be a better time as much less of today's trains will be around, allowing more room for speculation!

 

[Bevan Price]

With luck, they might just have completed Trans Pennine electrification (Manchester / Leeds /York) by 2044, so some new emus or bimodes ("improved 397/802") might just be entering service, with some 185s rendered "surplus" and looking for new homes.

Class 153 and 155 will have gone, and a start made to replacing 150, 165 and 166 classes. Consideration will be made about replacing 168 and 170/171 classes, but that will only be approaching completion by 2054.

Voyager family may still be around in 2044 unless it becomes impossible to get affordable spares. Eventual replacements likely to be some type of bimode. Same applies to 390s, but both should be gone by 2054.

Classes 318, 320 and 323 will probably be gone by 2044, although some 323s might still survive. Likewise 37x emus will be on the way out.

Replacements will depend on whichever train builders are still in business by 2044 or 2054.

 

[MontyP]

If the 701 rollout doesn't kick up a gear, then the 455s will probably still be around !

 

[Anonymous10]

With luck, they might just have completed Trans Pennine electrification (Manchester / Leeds /York) by 2044, so some new emus or bimodes ("improved 397/802") might just be entering service, with some 185s rendered "surplus" and looking for new homes.

Class 153 and 155 will have gone, and a start made to replacing 150, 165 and 166 classes. Consideration will be made about replacing 168 and 170/171 classes, but that will only be approaching completion by 2054.

Voyager family may still be around in 2044 unless it becomes impossible to get affordable spares. Eventual replacements likely to be some type of bimode. Same applies to 390s, but both should be gone by 2054.

Classes 318, 320 and 323 will probably be gone by 2044, although some 323s might still survive. Likewise 37x emus will be on the way out.

Replacements will depend on whichever train builders are still in business by 2044 or 2054.

I doubt the 185s would be looking for a new home, they'd be 38 years old at that point.

 

[PTR 444]

I think 158s will be the oldest on the network.

I doubt it. They’d be over 50 years old by then.

 

[Islineclear3_1]

Class 69's given that they are rebuilds from Class 56 locomotives dating back to 1976. If there are any original bits then that would make then 68 years old in 2044

 

[61653 HTAFC]

Class 185s [...] will probably still be in service,

I wouldn’t be so sure about that- they're heavy and drink fuel like it's going out of fashion, so once they aren't needed for TPE you'd have a job on finding somewhere else suitable.

Never underestimate the 158s, there is no clear replacement for them.

Cascaded 170s or CAF 19x DMUs, or Flirts would be obvious replacements if it happens in the next decade or so. Which of those you'd choose might well depend on the specific use-case. I'd be hugely surprised if any 158s are still on the national network when they're over 50.

 

[renegademaster]

Turbostars i can see running to to their ungraceful ends considering no sign that anything will happen with Uckfield and Marshlink in the near future. Unless battery trains get a better capacity, and, the grid related costs for it get cheaper. It will get politically harder to build *new* diesels , but convincing the treasury to fund building a large fleet of battery trains will be just as hard

 

[sprinterguy]

Class 37s will be hauling Electrostar units several decades their junior to the scrapyard.

The once notable photos of them doing similar with Pendolino units, 7 - 8 years earlier, will be fading from immediate memory.

Turbostars i can see running to to their ungraceful ends considering no sign that anything will happen with Uckfield and Marshlink in the near future. Unless battery trains get a better capacity, and, the grid related costs for it get cheaper. It will get politically harder to build *new* diesels , but convincing the treasury to fund building a large fleet of battery trains will be just as hard

Turbostars may still be operating in reducing numbers by 2044, but extrapolating that from the example of an isolated microfleet in the South East seems a non-representative starting point: I should think the Southern operated units will be long gone from that area of operation before they're withdrawn elsewhere in the UK, given that the drive for reducing carbon emissions is generally represented in and around London first.

 

[renegademaster]

Class 37s will be hauling Electrostar units several decades their junior to the scrapyard.

Turbostars may still be operating in reducing numbers by 2044, but extrapolating that from the example of an isolated microfleet in the London area seems a non-representative starting point: I should think the Southern operated units will be long gone from that area of operation before they're withdrawn elsewhere in the UK, given that the drive for reducing carbon emissions is generally represented in and around London first.

Considering their probally still be 1000s of diesel trucks still around, i dont city hall is gonna care too much about the 2tph of diesels that head into London Bridge. Its a well ventilated largely open station, not marleybone , nobody complains about the air quality.

I only really know about the situation down south , but i would be surprised if the business cases for batteries/electrification is any better for the routes up north and in scotland they run.

 

[sprinterguy]

Considering their probally still be 1000s of diesel trucks still around, i dont city hall is gonna care too much about the 2tph of diesels that head into London Bridge. Its a well ventilated largely open station, not marleybone , nobody complains about the air quality..

I still, personally, can't see London Bridge being the final repository for 45 year old Turbostar units. Those routes are already lower in mileage for battery or other alternatives to offer practical solutions than many of the routes that 170s are used on elsewhere in the country.

 

[renegademaster]

66s will still probally be the main freight class too

 

[Snow1964]

Class 377s and 444/450s will probably be the oldest trains in service by then

I will go along with that 377, 444, 450 as a 2044 prediction, but would expect 390s to still be around too (although moved to other services, or with open access operators)

I could also see London Underground still in process of replacing Jubilee and/or Northern fleet fleets. Some of Jubilee fleet (and 7th car) is only 18 years old. The Bakerloo fleet is now 50 years old.

 

[YorkRailFan]

Cascaded 170s or CAF 19x DMUs, or Flirts would be obvious replacements if it happens in the next decade or so. Which of those you'd choose might well depend on the specific use-case. I'd be hugely surprised if any 158s are still on the national network when they're over 50.

I can't see CAF or Turbos operating with SWR down to Exeter anytime soon, the Turbos aren't as Intercity feeling as the 158s/159s.

 

[61653 HTAFC]

I can't see CAF or Turbos operating with SWR down to Exeter anytime soon, the Turbos aren't as Intercity feeling as the 158s/159s.

On what basis are they not capable of being "as Intercity feeling"?... or more importantly, why should trains on that route need to be intercity feeling? SWT ran 170s on that route for a few years, and whilst they usually didn't work West of Salisbury they had a broadly similar interior quality to the 159s they ran with. I smell door-position prejudice...
SWR seem to be moving away from the SWT-era "pseudo-Intercity" feel of their longer-distance stock anyway with the removal of 2+1 first class on the 444s.

 

[YorkRailFan]

On what basis are they not capable of being "as Intercity feeling"?... or more importantly, why should trains on that route need to be intercity feeling? SWT ran 170s on that route for a few years, and whilst they usually didn't work West of Salisbury they had a broadly similar interior quality to the 159s they ran with. I smell door-position prejudice...
SWR seem to be moving away from the SWT-era "pseudo-Intercity" feel of their longer-distance stock anyway with the removal of 2+1 first class on the 444s.

Because they're not exactly long distance trains but more regional commuter trains.

 

[61653 HTAFC]

Because they're not exactly long distance trains but more regional commuter trains.

Isn't that at least 50% of what the Waterloo to Exeter line is? 158s or 159s are just as much "regional commuter trains" as 170s or the CAF DMUs are, depending on who is operating them. There aren't the distinct dividing lines between different types of service on the GB network like there are in some European countries, and therefore aren't clear dividing lines between types of train either. You say the 159s are "intercity" but I suspect you'd say the near-identical units operated by Northern aren't. The same goes for Turbostars- they ran Intercity services from Derby to London when new, but now do regional expresses and local stoppers for Northern alongside the 158s. Even the CAF units do both stoppers and semi-fast work as required by their operators. The only real distinction between 170s and 158/159s is where the doors are.

 

[778]

The railway could be very different in 2044 so it is difficult to make predictions, but these are mine (probably will be wrong).

I would not be surprised if there are still 08s in service in 2044. They could easily be in service for over 100 years. I would expect all of the mainline locos built before the 90s to be gone (47s,37s,20s etc). The 57s and 92s might still be around. The 66s and any locos built after them will probably still be in service, except for maybe the 67s (they could be sold abroad rather than scrapped).

The oldest EMUs will be 350s/450s and 377s/375s. The oldest DMUs will be 168s. Battery trains might be used on branch lines but not on main lines.

 

[Anonymous10]

The railway could be very different in 2044 so it is difficult to make predictions, but these are mine (probably will be wrong).

I would not be surprised if there are still 08s in service in 2044. They could easily be in service for over 100 years. I would expect all of the mainline locos built before the 90s to be gone (47s,37s,20s etc). The 57s and 92s might still be around. The 66s and any locos built after them will probably still be in service, except for maybe the 67s (they could be sold abroad rather than scrapped).

The oldest EMUs will be 350s/450s and 377s/375s. The oldest DMUs will be 168s. Battery trains might be used on branch lines but not on main lines.

I think the class 37s will only be withdrawn If a suitable replacement can be found given their lower ra rating.

 

[renegademaster]

The oldest EMUs will be 350s/450s and 377s/375s. The oldest DMUs will be 168s. Battery trains might be used on branch lines but not on main lines.

My money would be something on the London Underground(Jubilee line stock mabye?) or the refurbished D stock

 

[D365]

If there are any original bits then that would make then 68 years old in 2044

Plenty of 'original' components.

 

[Pat31]

From a western perspective. I suspect the 80x's will still be in service. All the 16x's and 15x's will have been scrapped in the 2030's leaving a potentially new streamlined fleet of bi-mode battery emu's and bi-mode diesel electrics in service around Bristol and further west respectively.