ULEZ, Uxbridge by-election and the London 2024 Mayoral election

[GS250]

I think Susan Hall has a better chance of winning than most others think. Especially with the Tories making the London elections FPTP (I wonder why they have done that!) It's a real possibility she sneaks in with 30-35% of the vote - especially if Corbyn runs as an independent

ULEZ is a funny old thing for voters. Almost everyone I know in London around my age doesn't have a car and they don't even know about ULEZ - that's to say it's not even a factor on their agenda when they come to vote. It wouldn't even make the top 10 of things. Yet for a minority of others it's seen as a huge thing (Understandably if you have an affected vehicle of course)

It's why I don't really buy all of this Uxbridge was a referendum on ULEZ spin. 54% of people didn't vote at all ! Almost a thousand people voted Green !

Interesting take. How old are you out of interest? I'm 50 later this year (old!) and when I was late teens most of us aspired to own a car. This in spite of the fact public transport was considered affordable.

 

[DC1989]

Interesting take. How old are you out of interest? I'm 50 later this year (old!) and when I was late teens most of us aspired to own a car. This in spite of the fact public transport was considered affordable.

Mid 30's - I do think it's somewhat generational. I do remember some teens wanting to get a car when I was a sixth form I'm sure it was the minority though. I think it's probably even less with todays teens?

Do you live in inner London or outer? What you describe seems more likely if inner.

The combination of a low turnout an an unexpected result could be explained by the Tories making a big issue of ULEZ and getting those who are opposed riled up and ready to vote, when many of the rest of the electorate didn't have any strong views and just stayed at home. The Green vote could even be a sign of those in favour of ULEZ choosing it as the best way of making their views felt. Of course if half of those thousand had voted Labour the result would have been different..

I live in outer (though most of my friends live in inner) Some friends have moved out of London to Essex and do definitely need a car, it really is like another world out there.

I honestly think the byelection result wouldn't have been that dissimilar even without ULEZ. The outer London tory vote has held up extremely well all things considered. Bexley's byelection showed that last year and I think they'll keep around 12-15 of their current 20 London seats. Why that is though is harder to work out.

My personal feelings are 2 reasons. 1) Many of these seats are quite traditionally NOT labour but have no Lib Dem presence, so there's no third party for them to move to. Secondly I think it's also because the Mayor is Labour that many things are ascribed to him, so the vote for Tory is seen as a vote against the long term sitting government. I know in my area any new unpopular housing development, any kind of reported crimes, anything negative at all really is blamed on the mayoralty. A pie and mash shop closing down was even being blamed on Khan recently

 

[Thirteen]

I think Susan Hall has a bigger uphill battle trying to get the inner London vote but also she's a bit one note.