Vaccine Progress, Approval, and Deployment

[Domh245]

If the second doses are due now, why are they not being given now? This "holding back" still doesn't make sense.

The only thing I'd add to what @ian94 has put, is that there's probably also a degree of insurance to it as well. Saving ~100,000 jabs each day builds up a stockpile giving us a few days extra supply of second doses (more so in the short term reflecting the situation 12 weeks ago where it was still fairly low numbers vaccinated daily) in case the Pfizer supply doesn't come back online as quickly as had been hoped. If it does come back online as quickly as is hoped (which for our, the EU's, and Canada's sake let's hope it does) then great, we've got a moderate stockpile that we can slowly put back out to vaccination sites to use up. If it runs into teething issues (see: Astrazeneca vs the EU), we've got enough stockpiled to hopefully ride out the period of lower supply (in combination with the ability to push bookings from the generally 10 weeks arranged to 12 week limit) until they recover

 

[Dent]

The only thing I'd add to what @ian94 has put, is that there's probably also a degree of insurance to it as well. Saving ~100,000 jabs each day builds up a stockpile giving us a few days extra supply of second doses (more so in the short term reflecting the situation 12 weeks ago where it was still fairly low numbers vaccinated daily) in case the Pfizer supply doesn't come back online as quickly as had been hoped. If it does come back online as quickly as is hoped (which for our, the EU's, and Canada's sake let's hope it does) then great, we've got a moderate stockpile that we can slowly put back out to vaccination sites to use up. If it runs into teething issues (see: Astrazeneca vs the EU), we've got enough stockpiled to hopefully ride out the period of lower supply (in combination with the ability to push bookings from the generally 10 weeks arranged to 12 week limit) until they recover

Given that this supply shortage is due to factory upgrades which have been planned for some time, would it not have been sensible to build up a stockpile before rather that during the period of short supply?

 

[swr444]

Given that this supply shortage is due to factory upgrades which have been planned for some time, would it not have been sensible to build up a stockpile before rather that during the period of short supply?

They probably have been.

 

[Dent]

They probably have been.

You previously claimed that they are holding back supplies now, during the current shortage.

They are also holding back on supplies for the 2nd doses.

 

[swr444]

You previously claimed that they are holding back supplies now, during the current shortage.

I am just saying that they have been holding back supplies. But now that there are fewer jabs to give out as there is a shortage as well as having to hold back compared to a week ago

 

[Dent]

I am just saying that they have been holding back supplies. But now that there are fewer jabs to give out as there is a shortage as well as having to hold back compared to a week ago

My questions is why are they having to hold back supplies now, during a planned time of slow delivery, when it would have been more sensible to build up the necessary stockpile before the delivery slowed down.

Also, you keep contradicting yourself. One moment you are saying that they are having to hold back supplies during the current shortage, the next you are staying that they "probably have" been buiding up the necessary stockpile before the supply slowed down, then the next moment you go back to saying that they are having to hold back supplies now.

 

[takno]

My questions is why are they having to hold back supplies now, during a planned time of slow delivery, when it would have been more sensible to build up the necessary stockpile before the delivery slowed down.

Also, you keep contradicting yourself. One moment you are saying that they are having to hold back supplies during the current shortage, the next you are staying that they "probably have" been buiding up the necessary stockpile before the supply slowed down, then the next moment you go back to saying that they are having to hold back supplies now.

Because if they restrict injections earlier just in order to stockpile a jab for the future, people won't have been injected, and they may catch the disease and die. Or at least get ill and spoil the stats. Preparation is a good thing, but there is such a thing as overdoing it.

 

[Dent]

Because if they restrict injections earlier just in order to stockpile a jab for the future, people won't have been injected, and they may catch the disease and die. Or at least get ill and spoil the stats. Preparation is a good thing, but there is such a thing as overdoing it.

First of all, such hyperbole are really not helpful to a rational discussion. I don't really understand how building up stocks while supplies are plentiful, as opposed to waiting until there is already a shortage and then exacerbating that shortage, is "overdoing it".

 

[Yew]

First of all, such hyperbole are really not helpful to a rational discussion. I don't really understand how building up stocks while supplies are plentiful, as opposed to waiting until there is already a shortage and then exacerbating that shortage, is "overdoing it".

Vaccinations have 0% effectiveness when sitting in a warehouse.

 

[Dent]

Vaccinations have 0% effectiveness when sitting in a warehouse.

That still doesn't answer the question of why it is somehow better to hold back supplies during a temporary shortage as opposed to any other time.

 

[swr444]

I already explained the reason why yesterday

From next week they are starting to ramp up 2nd jabs for the over 85's again and need to make sure they have enough to be able to give them out without delay. If they gave out all the vaccines they have right now and then ended up with not enough to give for the 2nd jab, it would be a PR disaster (I'm sure the last thing this government want right now is another bad news story). I am sure they have plenty of other very good reasons as to why they are holding back supplies during the shortage.

 

[Dent]

I already explained the reason why yesterday

From next week they are starting to ramp up 2nd jabs for the over 85's again and need to make sure they have enough to be able to give them out without delay. If they gave out all the vaccines they have right now and then ended up with not enough to give for the 2nd jab, it would be a PR disaster (I'm sure the last thing this government want right now is another bad news story). I am sure they have plenty of other very good reasons as to why they are holding back supplies during the shortage.

You didn't explain why it is better to hold back supplies during, rather than before, a planned period of shortage. I thought that was a simple enough question, but evidently not.

I am sure they have plenty of other very good reasons as to why they are holding back supplies during the shortage.

What are those "very good reasons"?

 

[Domh245]

That still doesn't answer the question of why it is somehow better to hold back supplies during a temporary shortage as opposed to any other time.

Whilst we had doses available and minimal pressure to deliver second doses, it makes sense to get them into arms as quickly as possible (delivering bulk of immunity). Withholding during the shortage limits the amount of time they spend sitting in a warehouse being functionally useless - it doesn't change who gets the vaccine, just when they get it. Withholding before means that anyone who's received it during the last week would be receiving it this week (as a crude approximation)

 

[swr444]

You didn't explain why it is better to hold back supplies during, rather than before, a planned period of shortage. I thought that was a simple enough question, but evidently not.



What are those "very good reasons"?

I’m just relaying what they’ve been saying at the vaccination centre I work at. I’m not a health expert so I couldn’t tell you the reasons.

 

[yorkie]

The BBC are slow as usual:

Coronavirus: Latest data shows vaccine reduces transmission - Hancock

Matt Hancock says hospital admissions are falling more sharply than the first wave of the pandemic.

www.bbc.co.uk

There is "early data" showing a reduction in transmission in people who have had a coronavirus vaccine, the health secretary has said.

This has been obvious for several weeks now!

But more breaking news:

Professor Tim Spector gives an update on the vaccine programme and the data the ZOE COVID Symptom Study has collected from over half a million logged doses. In fact, we've had so many people log their vaccine and related after effects that we've had to recalculate our COVID incidence data. It's good news - we now think the number of new cases is lower than previously thought

Tim says vaccines working very well, side effects low (even lower than in the trials) and not serious. Only one in five person has side effects and they usually only last one day.

540,000 people have logged vaccine data through the app.

Some vaccine symptoms were being confused with symptoms of an infection and now this has been recognised, the data has been amended accordingly:

Latest Daily UK COVID-19 Data: Vaccines, Cases, Trends | ZOE

COVID infection & vaccination rates in the UK today, based on public data and reports from millions of users of the ZOE Health Study app

covid.joinzoe.com

159,680​

people are currently predicted to have symptomatic COVID in the UK​

Daily new cases of COVID​

Total numbers of new daily cases across the UK​

9,651​

I assume the estimate of 9,651 will be the estimate of symptomatic Covid, which could explain why this is lower than the Government test results (which of course will include asymptomatic cases)

 

[Mojo]

Those aged 64 can now book their vaccine appointments on the NHS website without first waiting for contact from your surgery - https://www.nhs.uk/conditions/coron...rus-vaccination/book-coronavirus-vaccination/. Not sure when this was added, presumably earlier today as last time I checked it was only for those 65 and above.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 23 Feb 2021 ==

I’m interested they have moved into plucking people from group 7 now, as I know of a few people in group 6 that have not received invitations yet, although one of them is age 64 so now eligible via the NHS. Could this be because Group 6 is managed by surgeries directly, or perhaps too much data to put into the central NHS system?

 

[Dent]

Those aged 64 can now book their vaccine appointments on the NHS website without first waiting for contact from your surgery - https://www.nhs.uk/conditions/coron...rus-vaccination/book-coronavirus-vaccination/. Not sure when this was added, presumably earlier today as last time I checked it was only for those 65 and above.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 23 Feb 2021 ==

I’m interested they have moved into plucking people from group 7 now, as I know of a few people in group 6 that have not received invitations yet, although one of them is age 64 so now eligible via the NHS. Could this be because Group 6 is managed by surgeries directly, or perhaps too much data to put into the central NHS system?

Rather odd that they are using a cutoff which doesn't match the cutoff for any of the priority groups.

 

[HSTEd]

Rather odd that they are using a cutoff which doesn't match the cutoff for any of the priority groups.

This way gives them much finer control

 

[DannyMich2018]

According to Gov.uk the number of Vaccinations the last few days have gone down a lot, only 334,060 1st doses for Sunday and Monday combined. Let's hope this is a blip, maybe a supply issue or many areas already reached their age target and cannot vaccinate any people younger than 60 (apart from those with health conditions)?
From next week many people will be due their 2nd vaccination too which may slow things down too.

 

[nlogax]

According to Gov.uk the number of Vaccinations the last few days have gone down a lot, only 334,060 1st doses for Sunday and Monday combined. Let's hope this is a blip, maybe a supply issue or many areas already reached their age target and cannot vaccinate any people younger than 60 (apart from those with health conditions)?
From next week many people will be due their 2nd vaccination too which may slow things down too.

Short term supply issue in conjunction with doses being held back so second jabs can be given on or about the optimum interval. Apparently.

 

[HSTEd]

Supposedly Hancock expects supplies to go through the roof in March.

 

[STINT47]

I wonder if we will start to see a reduction in first vacination as we go through the groups?

As time goes on the people being offered a jab will be younger and healthier with some not being fussed about rushing to have it and others not having it all as their personal risk is low.

 

[DelayRepay]

Short term supply issue in conjunction with doses being held back so second jabs can be given on or about the optimum interval. Apparently.

From the Guardian

Matt Hancock, the health secretary, said in a radio interview the country could expect “a quieter week this week” for vaccinations because of supply pressure but that the rollout would bounce back next month. “We’re going to have some really bumper weeks in March.”

UK ministers have repeatedly said they expect supplies to be uneven, particularly while Pfizer reduces production at its European plant in Belgium during February to increase the amount it can make in March. AstraZeneca has promised to produce an average of 2m doses a week, but it acknowledges its production can be lumpy.

And

Modelling documents released by the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (Sage) on Monday also appear to suggest that the UK could speed up its pace of inoculation towards the end of March.

A document from Sage’s modelling subcommittee produced earlier this month suggests that vaccinations could potentially be carried out at the rate of 4m a week from 22 March based on scenarios “commissioned by Cabinet Office” – although a second, more conservative forecast, suggests 4m a week could be hit by 25 April.
[/quote[

 

[bengley]

Covax vaccine-sharing scheme delivers first doses to Ghana

The vaccine-sharing scheme aims to help poorer countries like Ghana get Covid-19 jabs.

www.bbc.co.uk

Ghana has become the first country to receive coronavirus vaccines through the Covax vaccine-sharing initiative.
The World Health Organization (WHO) programme aims to ensure that vaccines are shared fairly among all nations.
Covax is aiming to deliver about two billion doses of Covid-19 vaccines globally by the end of the year.
A total of 600,000 doses of the vaccine developed by AstraZeneca and Oxford University arrived in Ghana's capital Accra on Wednesday.

I wonder whether this has anything to do with the shortages.

 

[Bantamzen]

Covax vaccine-sharing scheme delivers first doses to Ghana

The vaccine-sharing scheme aims to help poorer countries like Ghana get Covid-19 jabs.

www.bbc.co.uk

I wonder whether this has anything to do with the shortages.

The shortages were planned as part of Pfizer (I believe?) doing some work at their production line to allow more vaccines to be produced. It will only take a couple of weeks to ramp back up again.

 

[hwl]

Covax vaccine-sharing scheme delivers first doses to Ghana

The vaccine-sharing scheme aims to help poorer countries like Ghana get Covid-19 jabs.

www.bbc.co.uk

I wonder whether this has anything to do with the shortages.

Manufactured in India...

 

[HSTEd]

Most short term COVAX production is Serum Institute of India I believe.

 

[ChrisC]

Those aged 64 can now book their vaccine appointments on the NHS website without first waiting for contact from your surgery - https://www.nhs.uk/conditions/coron...rus-vaccination/book-coronavirus-vaccination/. Not sure when this was added, presumably earlier today as last time I checked it was only for those 65 and above.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 23 Feb 2021 ==

I’m interested they have moved into plucking people from group 7 now, as I know of a few people in group 6 that have not received invitations yet, although one of them is age 64 so now eligible via the NHS. Could this be because Group 6 is managed by surgeries directly, or perhaps too much data to put into the central NHS system?

Thank you so much for posting that link. It’s great what information is often shared in this forum and how people are willing to help. I’m 64 and just booked my first jab for tomorrow morning and my 2nd one for mid May. I’ve got mine at a village hall just 6 miles from home. It’s one that has recently been set up by a local pharmacy in co operation with the Parish Council. I wasn’t expecting to receive my first jab until late in March.

 

[RomeoCharlie71]

Group 6 will now include all those on the GP Learning Disability Register.

https://twitter.com/MattHancock/status/1364545768774918145

I know how worried many with learning disabilities, & their loved ones, have been

So I warmly welcome this JCVI advice that everyone on the GP Learning Disability Register should now be jabbed in cohort 6

I’ve asked the NHS to implement immediately

 

[greyman42]

I wonder if we will start to see a reduction in first vacination as we go through the groups?

As time goes on the people being offered a jab will be younger and healthier with some not being fussed about rushing to have it and others not having it all as their personal risk is low.

That's fine as long as the government don't use it as an excuse to prolong restrictions.