Velaro UK construction progress (New Eurostar rolling stock)

[paul1609]

If the Nightstar had happened it could have got a fair chunk of Scottish/Northern English passengers. Eurostar plus connection over 5 hours from Northern English Cities, flying (even with check-in/security) is less than 3. And pricewise Eurostar is similar to KLM/AF not Easyjet/Ryanair.

I don't think it would "sleeper" services are in decline all over Europe. Even as an enthusiast i haven't used a southbound sleeper since WCML modernisation, the increased frequency meant i could leave the Clyde at the end of the working day, spend a full night in my own bed in Kent before going back to London for the next working day.

 

[jon0844]

I also wonder how many people might travel from an East Coast destination to the continent but buy separate tickets because they don't know you can get through tickets?.

My parents always booked their European train tickets via a local travel agent, and it turns out they bought the tickets to St Pancras separately on the day.

It was only when I went with them recently to Germany that I asked if they'd got the 'correct' CIV ticket that would cover them/us if there were delays. My mum hadn't heard of them, which is fair enough although I was surprised as she'd booked via an agent, and when she enquired with the travel agent was told there was no such thing!!

I didn't let her accept that as an answer and so she made them check properly, and the travel agent then came back later to basically say 'Wow, we never knew that'!

So I suspect an awful lot of people won't be getting them, so surely there wouldn't be any real way to properly count how many people are travelling on Eurostar from STP who live a lot further away yet travelled by train to get there?

I bet an awful lot of people who still think you can only book a ticket via their own TOC, or the Trainline.com, wouldn't even think to check if booking via Eurostar's own website. They might actually think the combined ticket would be more expensive.

Eurostar did do a bit of a push some years ago, when it announced that the London TOCs were now able to sell tickets to Paris/Brussels but I'm not sure I've seen that much advertising from Eurostar at all recently - let alone telling people about through ticketing.

 

[Olaf]

When DB announced its plans to operate to London and brought the ICE 3 to St. Pancras in 2010, they were hoping for a 2012/13 start date. ...

Thanks for the update.
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Off topic, but on the subject of competition from low cost airlines.
It has irked me somewhat to see that competition from low cost airlines is generally cited as one of the reasons why the Regional Eurostar services didn't go ahead, back in the late 1990's.
While the other economic arguments that killed of that plan were totally valid, it's the repeating of this particular aspect that's become a constant source of irritation for me. If I may just get it off my chest, I'd like to see an end to this myth (or lie?) being perpetuated.

I do not disagree with that; I was answering in the context of current and new services via HS1 and predominantly on continental rail.
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Low cost flights from Manchester and Leeds to Paris have only been operating in the last 5 or 6 years; the Leeds service can only muster 4 flights a week.
These flights started 10 years or more after the cancellation of Reg. E*.
Manchester is the biggest market, but is predominately flown by the full fare operators.

There have never been low cost flights between Manchester or Leeds to Brussels, Cologne or Frankfurt, only full fare operators on these routes.
In fact Leeds has not had any flights to theses cities for long periods of time over the last 2 decades.

There have never been low cost flights from Birmingham to Paris, Brussels, Cologne or Frankfurt, despite the regular full fare operations.
Birmingham to Amsterdam low cost flights have been on and off over the years and really haven't taken a foothold against KLM's service.

Incidentally, low cost airline operations have not really prospered on the London to Paris, Brussels and Frankfurt markets either, despite being very busy air routes.

OK now I've got that off my chest, back to the topic........

Again, I do not disagree with most of your points, but as I said, low-cost air travel impacts on building business cases for new services and continuation of existing ones. Even with standard fares, HS rail looses competitiveness for journey times above about 3 hours which from London is most of the new destinations announced beyond Paris and Brussels. This can be mitigated for businesses, but in most cases rail is non-competitive at 4 hours or more.

The Manchester to continent connections are also a little academic at the moment since the current journey times to the major centres is about 4 hours or more.
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Re the issues that DB are having: Aren't their trains and the e320s similar enough that Siemens should essential be able to get both into international service simultaneously?

I think DB was intending to route their services via Paris; I'm not sure if that is a factor, but yes I agree I'm not sure how much difference there would be in the effort required by the two operators.

DB announced very ambitious proposals back in 2010, and I suspected at the time it was an off the cuff publicity stunt without much work having been done on the analysis. It is thus possible that the proposed services were never viable.

 

[33Hz]

SNCF once said they capture 50% of the market with a 4.5 hour journey. Various studies have published an S curve using such data.

Looking at CAA data for various WCML and ECML destinations to Paris and comparing with London to Amsterdam and Germany, it appears that the daily market each way is:

Manchester + Birmingham to Paris : 800
All ECML from Glasgow to Paris : 400
London to Amsterdam : 3000
London to Cologne + Frankfurt : 1600

So it's clear that the priority has to be on Amsterdam and Germany, but one can maybe make a case for a daily train each way from Manchester with a stop in Birmingham. The market size is bigger than Eurostar's new route to Lyon and Marseille (600 each way).

 

[paul1609]

Surely you have to take journey time in to consideration? How many people are going to transfer from air to rail when the journey time is doubled? Next to none I would suggest

 

[BananaRepublic]

Looking at CAA data for various WCML and ECML destinations to Paris and comparing with London to Amsterdam and Germany, it appears that the daily market each way is:

Manchester + Birmingham to Paris : 800
All ECML from Glasgow to Paris : 400
London to Amsterdam : 3000
London to Cologne + Frankfurt : 1600

So it's clear that the priority has to be on Amsterdam and Germany, but one can maybe make a case for a daily train each way from Manchester with a stop in Birmingham. The market size is bigger than Eurostar's new route to Lyon and Marseille (600 each way).

What you are not taking into account is that where there are frequent air services, for example Manchester - Paris and Birmingham - Paris, those services are timed to meet the demand at various points during the day.
The passengers are predominately travelling on business, or connecting at CDG onto other flights; although there is an amount of leisure traffic at certain times of the year.
The aircraft types used are sized accordingly to meet the demand.

If one of the airline operators decided to replace 5 flights a day, with a single flight using a larger aircraft, it simply wouldn't work. The timing of the single flight would not suit a large proportion of the prospective market and many would simply take a different option, or not travel at all.
That's why there's a spread of services throughout the day.

Providing a single 800 seat train from Manchester to Paris would not suit most of these passengers either. It wouldn't be able to get to Paris early enough for some business travellers and would be far to early in the day for others.

As for the passengers catching onwards flights from Paris, there would be virtually no interest in such a train, as the convenient connections that routing via CDG provided, are completely eradicated. They would choose to fly to a different hub (e.g. AMS or FRA) and make their connections there instead.

 

[33Hz]

Surely you have to take journey time in to consideration? How many people are going to transfer from air to rail when the journey time is doubled? Next to none I would suggest

That was exactly SNCF's point and the percentage of market share their research claims are likely to switch is included in the above figures.

 

[paul1609]

Are you suggesting that Manchester to Paris via Birmingham and the North London line is possible in 4.5 hours? If so I think you are being a tadge optimistic.

 

[47802]

I must say when I travel on Eurostar I have always bought separate tickets to London from the North of England, and I only travel on Eurostar because I like the train journey and don't like flying, When have has been effectively forced to fly on business, I have to admit its usually a lot quicker and cheaper to fly than take the corresponding train journey from the north of England.

Also now having been forced to get used to flying I'm more inclined to take the plane for a leisure trip than I was previously as its usually quicker and cheaper.

Clearly the problem is generating enough demand to fill a Eurostar train, and as for the idea of Sleeper services forget it.

 

[Noddy]

SNCF once said they capture 50% of the market with a 4.5 hour journey. Various studies have published an S curve using such data.

Looking at CAA data for various WCML and ECML destinations to Paris and comparing with London to Amsterdam and Germany, it appears that the daily market each way is:

Manchester + Birmingham to Paris : 800
All ECML from Glasgow to Paris : 400
London to Amsterdam : 3000
London to Cologne + Frankfurt : 1600

So it's clear that the priority has to be on Amsterdam and Germany, but one can maybe make a case for a daily train each way from Manchester with a stop in Birmingham. The market size is bigger than Eurostar's new route to Lyon and Marseille (600 each way).

The Manchester + Birmingham number seems a bit low to me considering there are five or six daily flights from EACH airport to Paris. Even assuming that a smallish 125 -150 seat plane isn't fully loaded. I've had a look at CAA data but can't find the specifics - do you have a link?

People say that new routes can only be viable if its less than 4hrs and a business route. The new route to the south of France shows that this isn't the case!

 

[Alfie1014]

Passed Temple Mills yesterday two sets stabled outside the depot, couldn't help noticing that the 374s have 8 pantographs!

 

[starrymarkb]

Passed Temple Mills yesterday two sets stabled outside the depot, couldn't help noticing that the 374s have 8 pantographs!

Yes, each half set has:

• 1x UK/French/Swiss/HS AC
• 1x German AC (Wider head)
• 2x DC for Belgian, French and Dutch classic lines - if like the ICE3 both DC pans need to be up when running on 1500V DC (so 4 up on the full length 374)

Each half is basically a single ended Velaro D, there isn't a full length power bus (each half set is fully independant)

 

[gordonthemoron]

I think Velaro Ds have 6 pantographs

 

[AM9]

....[*]2x DC for Belgian, French and Dutch classic lines - if like the ICE3 both DC pans need to be up when running on 1500V DC (so 4 up on the full length 374)

Is that because of maximum current draw or because the bus is not there or capable of powering all motor sets?

 

[CdBrux]

So I suspect an awful lot of people won't be getting them, so surely there wouldn't be any real way to properly count how many people are travelling on Eurostar from STP who live a lot further away yet travelled by train to get there?

I bet an awful lot of people who still think you can only book a ticket via their own TOC, or the Trainline.com, wouldn't even think to check if booking via Eurostar's own website. They might actually think the combined ticket would be more expensive.

Eurostar did do a bit of a push some years ago, when it announced that the London TOCs were now able to sell tickets to Paris/Brussels but I'm not sure I've seen that much advertising from Eurostar at all recently - let alone telling people about through ticketing.

My parents often get a combined ticket from Bedfordshire to Brussels, apparently the ammount they pay to/from London is significantly less than had they bought that leg separately.
--- old post above --- --- new post below ---

People say that new routes can only be viable if its less than 4hrs and a business route. The new route to the south of France shows that this isn't the case!

Doesn't the new route stop in Lille and therefore will be used by domestic French passengers as well?

 

[jopsuk]

I'd guess the dual pantographs on DC is a power draw thing- or more, a current carrying capability. At a theoretical 8MW for a half set and 1500V DC, a single pantograph would have a current of 5333 Amps. Even half of that would still be vast- so I would guess they will be power limited on the DC anyway.

 

[Noddy]

Doesn't the new route stop in Lille and therefore will be used by domestic French passengers as well?

I'm not sure on that but if/once HS2/HS1-2 link are complete you could do a similar thing in the UK with Manchester/Birmingham-Paris trains stopping at a combination of Birmingham Interchange/Old Oak Common/Stratford/Ashford. This will add time on through journeys (10 min per stop?) but by the time HS2 to Manchester is complete the French will probably be building LGV Picardie (planned for 2020-30) saving 20 min on Paris times. The obvious problem is passport control but hopefully by then UKIP will be a thing of the past and we will have joined the Schengen area.

 

[BananaRepublic]

....by the time HS2 to Manchester is complete the French will probably be building LGV Picardie (planned for 2020-30) ...

Your timescales are bit out aren't they?
If it goes ahead, HS2 phase two (to Manchester and Leeds) is projected to be opened in the early to mid 30's.

 

[starrymarkb]

I'd guess the dual pantographs on DC is a power draw thing- or more, a current carrying capability. At a theoretical 8MW for a half set and 1500V DC, a single pantograph would have a current of 5333 Amps. Even half of that would still be vast- so I would guess they will be power limited on the DC anyway.

It is current draw. They run with a single pan per half up on Belgian DC (3kV) double pan is needed for 1500V

 

[AM9]

It is current draw. They run with a single pan per half up on Belgian DC (3kV) double pan is needed for 1500V

It's amazing that a full train can be powered from a 1500V OHLE, i.e. over 10kA is more than a 750V 3rd rail can normally provide for all trains in the section.

 

[Peter Sarf]

I suppose if the 373s are seen as being wasted perhaps the better question is - Why did we not build HS1 ready for the opening of the channel tunnel ?. then we would not have needed smaller gauge 373s. The French built their high speed line ready for the tunnel opening.

Sightings :-

Monday 17/11/2014.
Travelling Tottenham Hale at 17:24 to Stratford saw three pairs. One on the side of the depot and two further South/West in the departure sidings (or whatever they are).
Travelling Stratford at 17:47 to Tottenham Hale one of the two pairs (furthest from the main line I think) had gone !.
I could not ID any as it was dark. I could not even figure out where the number was !.

Thursday 20/11/2014.
Travelling Stratford at 11:00 to Tottenham Hale only one pair (down the side of the depot) 374008 & 374007.

Does that mean they are using one or two pairs or just out testing ?.

 

[jon0844]

It was laughable that we didn't build a high speed line that was ready for the opening or even anytime soon after the opening of the tunnel.

In fact, laughable could perhaps be replaced with the word embarrassing.

 

[starrymarkb]

It's amazing that a full train can be powered from a 1500V OHLE, i.e. over 10kA is more than a 750V 3rd rail can normally provide for all trains in the section.

The power will be turned down to a fraction of what 25kV will give. Though an Amsterdam bound set would be on 25kV to just south of Schiphol, with 1500V for the final few miles at 60mph into Amsterdam

 

[SpacePhoenix]

Do the e320s have any sort of emergency power (even if for emergency lighting and minimal air con)? I was surprised that the 373s don't have any emergency power (story in the news today about a stranded Eurostar train)?

 

[cjmillsnun]

Do the e320s have any sort of emergency power (even if for emergency lighting and minimal air con)? I was surprised that the 373s don't have any emergency power (story in the news today about a stranded Eurostar train)?

I just saw that. Even the Mk1 EMUs had emergency power that kept a couple of lights per train operating in the event of the juice going off. That said I doubt it would last more than a couple of hours.

 

[Cletus]

Is the new Eurostar at Dollands Moor the same one that was at St Pancras?

 

[flash]

Do the e320s have any sort of emergency power (even if for emergency lighting and minimal air con)? I was surprised that the 373s don't have any emergency power (story in the news today about a stranded Eurostar train)?

All forms of stock have a battery of sorts that provides for emergency lights only. Give it a couple of hours and that goes flat.
Once the train has lost it power source, be it ohle or engine then air-con / heating disappears.

Don't know about the e320 but do know that a 373 has batteries that provide emergency lights and pa - the air-con goes when the juice goes. Batteries will last at least 90 minutes.

 

[SpacePhoenix]

Don't know about the e320 but do know that a 373 has batteries that provide emergency lights and pa - the air-con goes when the juice goes. Batteries will last at least 90 minutes.

Don't think the 373s have anything:

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/art...ers-stranded-board-overnight-EIGHT-hours.html

A spokesman for Eurostar admitted the passengers would have been left in the dark while the trains were stranded as they are completely dependent on power from the overhead lines and carry no emergency back-up.

 

[flash]

Don't think the 373s have anything:

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/art...ers-stranded-board-overnight-EIGHT-hours.html

The train sat without power for several hours..... Batteries would have gone flat. Without a shadow of doubt 373s have batteries - I suggest you are talking out of your a**e.

My source - driver training!

 

[Wolfie]

The train sat without power for several hours..... Batteries would have gone flat. Without a shadow of doubt 373s have batteries - I suggest you are talking out of your a**e.

My source - driver training!

You must be wrong. ..that authoritative and always accurate source the Daily Heil says differently...