This is the problem with the upgrades suggested as an alternative to HS2 - doubling capacity at one bottleneck (like Welwyn) just creates a pinch point further up (or down!) the line.
There will be more capacity at KX when some of the FCC servics move to the Thameslink core, but the ECML isn't four track all the way to Doncaster, so its not like a bigger viaduct (or whatever) at Welwyn would suddenly mean there was room for loads of extra services.
Then we go to the next bottleneck, and the next and the next till we reach Doncaster :P
EDIT:
1. Duplicate the Welwyn Viaduct/Tunnels
2. Installation of a proper flyover at Hitchin
3. Installation of two new Platforms at Letchworth GC to support a high intensity LOROL service via Hertford Loop from Moorgate
4. Increase from a combination of two and three tracks to four between Huntingdon and Peterborough
5. Atleast one additional platform at Peterborough
6. Flyover north of Peterborough that carries the Down line of the Peterborough-Lincoln line over the fasts and Up Slow.
7. Integration of the two tracks of the Birmingham-to-Peterborough line with the ECML as far as Helpston with electrification and a flyover to carry the Up line of the former over the ECML at that location.
8. Duplication of Stoke Tunnel to carry four tracks
9. Extension of four track line to Grantham station, with a flyover south of the station to carry the Up Slow over the Fasts.
10. Remodelling of Grantham station with four full length platforms.
11. Addition of a fourth running line between Grantham station and the Nottingham branch junction, replacement of the single lead with a simple divergence.
12. Electrification of the Grantham-to-Nottingham line as far as Allington Junction.
13. Electrification of Allington Chord and the Grantham Avoiding line as far as the ECML flyover.
14. Addition of two new single track cords to permit trains to join the ECML northbound
15. Addition of two new slow lines between this junction and Newark
16. Remodelling of Newark Northgate with four full length platforms.
17. New bridge to carry the Newark Castle lines over the ECML, eliminating the flat crossing.
18. Addition (if possible) of a flyover to carry a second line for the ECML-Castle line chord over the fasts to enable more regular trains to Lincoln from London
19. Broadening of the route between Newark and Doncaster with any neccesary modifications to Retford (dont know enough about that station to be any more specific)
20. Replacement of the divergence between the Wakefield Line and Doncaster with a proper junction complete with a flyover to carry the Up line from Leeds over the ECML lines.
21. Two new running lines between Doncaster and Shaftholme Junction
22. New flyover at Shaftholme Junction to carry the Up slow over the Fast lines to join the Down Slow which will become the Askern Up and Down.
23. Addition of a new diveunder to allow trains from Thorne to reach the Askern Line.
24. Electrification of the Askern line to Knottingley
25. Electrification of line between Knottingley and Colton Junction via Sherburn-in-Elmet
26. Installation of a flyover at Colton Junction allow trains to reach the Leeds-to-York line from the Up Slow without obstructing the Fast lines.
27. Installation of ETCS Level 2 throughout
28. New Class 378s for the Moorgate-Letchworth Garden City services and faster accelerating, possibly tilting trains for ECML services (including the "Cambridge Cruiser")
That enough to be getting on with? It gives increased capacity south of Doncaster/York and doesnt destroy the Intercity service on the southern ECML in favour of nonexistant local services to do it.
EDIT #2.
It occurs to me that it might be a good idea to have six tracks between the Hertford Loop junction and the Hitchin flyover if this can be achieved without too much trouble as it would enable my proposed LOROL service to stay completely out of the way of the other services on the slows at that point.
Also I am not against High Speed 2 or anything, I just dont like that the Leeds branch will probably be used as an excuse to degrade the existing service patterns.