What do you think could happen to the TSGN franchise once GTR's contract expires?

[bramling]

If the Kings Cross services are to be transferred to anyone (and I think they should be; they're a slightly odd outcrop of the TSGN franchise which really doesn't belong) then surely it should be Greater Anglia?

LNER doesn't really fit as they're first and foremost an inter-city TOC. London Overground doesn't fit as they go too far out of London.

The thing is there’s crossover with other GTR services. There’s three northbound and three southbound Thameslink Peterborough services which run to King’s Cross, in addition to the peak 365/387 services. Same on the Cambridge side, with the addition of the half hourly 387 “Cruiser” services and the half hourly Thameslink King’s Cross to Cambridge service, which does appear to be looking more and more likely never to go through the core.

Just looking at the stabling locations you have 365s and 387s maintained at Hornsey, and starting up from Cambridge, Letchworth and Peterborough stabling points, alongside Thameslink 700s. To me there’s simply too much crossover to separate them all out to that degree. Were GA involved you would have three TOCs sharing Hornsey Depot assuming the LO thing goes ahead.

Anything which splits GN and TL is messy, though I take the point others have made about south of the river.

 

[choochoochoo]

In London commuting terms journey times are more relevant than absolute distance, really.

True, just stating some of the GN services between Kings cross and Stevenage stop at too many places to make them an 'intercity' service. With all those stops it LNER would have to alter its business model of being a true intercity but instead a mix of services. Maybe a bit like GwR

 

[choochoochoo]

Anything which splits GN and TL is messy, though I take the point others have made about south of the river.

Hopefully they'll see that it's working quite well right now (as long as the nothing breaks down in the core) and leave the set-up as it is.

 

[Hadders]

Everything going on with TFL the moment is a game of how much muck can be dropped on Sadiq Khan. Whether this is simply devious game-playing or a realistic attempt to discredit him so much in the faint hope Bailey has a realistic chance of winning the forthcoming election is for conjecture, however be in no doubt that what’s going on is mischievous. Therefore it’s hard to read what actual implications there might be for TSGN or LO.

Agreed. It's pure politics. The TOCs were bailed out early on in the crisis but TfL were made to wait until the 11th hour (and some) after the begging bowl came out. Part of the deal is a loan and the Government has two members on the TfL board to provide oversight.

If the Kings Cross services are to be transferred to anyone (and I think they should be; they're a slightly odd outcrop of the TSGN franchise which really doesn't belong) then surely it should be Greater Anglia?

LNER doesn't really fit as they're first and foremost an inter-city TOC. London Overground doesn't fit as they go too far out of London.

Moving the Kings Lynn services to Greater Anglia would introduce another TOC at Kings Cross, surely that not really the most efficient way, unless you want to run the Kings Lynn services out of Liverpool Street which will mean a massive increase in journey time.

I would put everything at Kings Cross under LNER and in time do the same setup at Euston. This would probably have happened by now had the SRA continued to exist.

LNER would then withdraw the cheaper GTR only fares. Be very careful what you wish for.

Hopefully they'll see that it's working quite well right now (as long as the nothing breaks down in the core) and leave the set-up as it is.

I agree. After years of disruption things have finally started to settle down. The last thing passengers and staff need is more disruption and change for change sake.

 

[py_megapixel]

Moving the Kings Lynn services to Greater Anglia would introduce another TOC at Kings Cross, surely that not really the most efficient way, unless you want to run the Kings Lynn services out of Liverpool Street which will mean a massive increase in journey time.

Not if you move all of the Kings Cross services on GN at once. They're all in roughly the right direction.

 

[Hadders]

Not if you move all of the Kings Cross services on GN at once. They're all in roughly the right direction.

GN is not s separate TOC. Is is a brand used by GTR on some of their services.

 

[py_megapixel]

GN is not s separate TOC. Is is a brand used by GTR on some of their services.

I know.
I don't really understand your point to be honest. We're talking about what might happen to the franchise at the next award. One possibility is that the Great Northern routes could be transferred.

 

[Hadders]

I know.
I don't really understand your point to be honest. We're talking about what might happen to the franchise at the next award. One possibility is that the Great Northern routes could be transferred.

You suggested moving the Great Northern branded services to Greater Anglia. That would mean the following TOCs operating from Kings Cross:

LNER
GTR
Greater Anglia
Hull Trains
Grand Central
London Underground (if they gain the Moorgate services as some operate to Kings Cross)

I just think that over complicates things.

 

[py_megapixel]

You suggested moving the Great Northern branded services to Greater Anglia. That would mean the following TOCs operating from Kings Cross:

LNER
GTR
Greater Anglia
Hull Trains
Grand Central
London Underground (if they gain the Moorgate services as some operate to Kings Cross)

I just think that over complicates things.

GTR would cease to operate from Kings Cross, if Greater Anglia took over the services.

 

[Hadders]

GTR would cease to operate from Kings Cross, if Greater Anglia took over the services.

They wouldn't. Some Thameslink services operate to and from Kings Cross and will continue to do so.

 

[py_megapixel]

They wouldn't. Some Thameslink services operate to and from Kings Cross and will continue to do so.

I heard those were supposed to be extended through the tunnels within the next few years?

But if not, I really don't see it being a major problem. It's not like Kings Cross has a simple service pattern which would be messed up by an extra TOC as it is, and the GN rolling stock is separate from Thameslink and and the Moorgate tunnels.

The main reason I can see not to transfer to GA, and this is a very good reason, is that they would then have a monopoly on London to Cambridge and could hike fares. So on second thoughts it may work better for them to stay put.

 

[Hadders]

I heard those were supposed to be extended through the tunnels within the next few years?

But if not, I really don't see it being a major problem. It's not like Kings Cross has a simple service pattern which would be messed up by an extra TOC as it is, and the GN rolling stock is separate from Thameslink and and the Moorgate tunnels.

The main reason I can see not to transfer to GA, and this is a very good reason, is that they would then have a monopoly on London to Cambridge and could hike fares. So on second thougts it may work better for them to stay put.

The Cambridge to Maidstone is highly unlikely to happen and so the semi fast Kings Cross to Cambridge service will remain at Kings Cross for the foreseeable future. Also Thameslink services in the early morning and evening start and terminate from Kings Cross. As I understand it the driver diagrams are interworked between GN and TL so separating these would cause inefficiency.

 

[py_megapixel]

On a different note, I suspect that if the franchise is re-let we will see the replacement of the remaining 1980s EMUs with Aventras or similar.

 

[Hadders]

On a different note, I suspect that if the franchise is re-let we will see the replacement of the remaining 1980s EMUs with Aventras or similar.

Perhaps, I don't know exactly what operates south of the Thames but on the GN side the oldest trains are the mid-1990s class 365s. These really don't need replacing, plenty of life left in them yet.

 

[py_megapixel]

Perhaps, I don't know exactly what operates south of the Thames but on the GN side the oldest trains are the mid-1990s class 365s. These really don't need replacing, plenty of life left in them yet.

Southern still have some 313s and 455s which I fully expect to be withdrawn at some point fairly soon.

 

[Hadders]

Southern still have some 313s and 455s which I fully expect to be withdrawn at some point fairly soon.

Agreed, they will probably need to be replaced, especially the 313s

 

[bramling]

GTR would cease to operate from Kings Cross, if Greater Anglia took over the services.

No they wouldn’t. You’d have something like six or seven daily services operated by class 700s, plus whatever happens with the KX Cambridge stopping service - currently operated by GTR under the TL brand using 700s.

If you split the 387 Cambridge fast services off to GA then you’re still left with what you do with the 365 services, and to do a clean split you’d need an extra 6x 365s (assuming the Baldock service remains).

There’s the added complication that the 387 services serve Letchworth and Royston at certain times, and there’s occasional services which stop elsewhere, one in the late evening, several on Sundays, and many during some versions of engineering work. So a very awkward split has now been created for these places, though removing the split north of Cambridge.

If people say a split south of the river doesn’t work then we’re really left with keeping GTR as it is, if they want to reduce is slightly then give the Moorgates to LO, and perhaps see if anything can be hived off elsewhere. Struggling to think of what though - the Bournemouths went in Connex days, and the South Central franchise has gained a couple of minor bits like Tonbridge.

In reality I suspect we may well simply see the can kicked down the road. Presumably GTR would be happy to keep running it on a management contract basis, and to be fair they’ve improved *massively* since 2018, seemingly the removal of Horton was like a cloud lifting.

 

[matt_world2004]

I don't think its so much the distance to stevenage, it's probably more to do with the fact these services stop between london and stevenage.

So does crossrail though most people getting on TfL rail or crossrail from reading. Will start and finish their journey outside London this is because if you are going to London you will take the faster GwR services at least some of the way.

 

[bramling]

Perhaps, I don't know exactly what operates south of the Thames but on the GN side the oldest trains are the mid-1990s class 365s. These really don't need replacing, plenty of life left in them yet.

South of the river excluding Thameslink it’s all various forms of Electrostar, with the exception of the 313s, 455s, and of course the 171s.

Agreed there’s no need to replace the 365s. They perform quite adequately, aren’t far off 387/700 performance (indeed 387s are still timed as 365s), and crucially have more seats than a 387 which is useful for the services they run. The only issues are ETCS fitting, and whether they get underscored on quality due to lack of air conditioning and CCTV, though to be honest neither are that necessary on the services they do, and unlike some 700s they have the all-important wi-fi.

 

[ThameslinkUser]

unlike some 700s they have the all-important wi-fi.

GTR fitted WiFi to almost all of their trains in their own programme. 700s were the sole exception in their programme, being a joint venture between the DfT and GTR. From how I've read it, it appears the DfT can't afford to conclude the 700 upgrade programme at the moment. This may change, or may be inaccurate.

 

[London Trains]

My plan:

• Give the Moorgate to Welwyn / Hertford / Stevenage services to London Overground with any Kings Cross extras being moved to Moorgate.
• Give the Kings Lynn services to LNER, since more of their services will be more regional and commuter based rather than Intercity post HS2. I also propose changing the name to East Coast Trains as it will be much more representative of its service.
• Keep the Kings Cross to Cambridge (dont bother with Maidstone) and Kings Cross to Peterborough (peak) service with Thameslink.
• Bin off the Luton to Rainham route, with Southeastern running a Cannon Street to Rainham service (basically the old Gillingham service a stop further), and Thameslink running Luton to Sevenoaks (Welwyn will be pointless if LO take over those services). Also extend the Orpington services to Luton all day.
• Gatwick Express scrapped with the paths being used to operate extra services (that call at Clapham Junction and East Croydon) onto Brighton and the coastways and end splitting at Haywards Heath (without ruining Brighton services like the current Gatwick works have). Also ends any stupid fare differences between SN and GX.

Rolling stock allocation:

• Greater Anglia Class 379s move to LNER to run the Kings Lynn services. They're refurbished and repainted.
• Great Northern Class 387s move to Southern to operate on the BML
• Class 365s scrapped. With the removal of any Maidstone, Welwyn or Rainham services, the Class 700s should be able to run the Peterborough peak services.
• Class 377/5s moved from Southeastern to Southern with Southeastern getting a new massive fleet of Aventras to replace all of the 376, 465 and 466 fleet which will be scrapped as well as the 377s to move to Southern.
• The C2C 387s also move to Southern when their Aventras arrive.
• The GX 387s will become standard Southern 387s once the brand is removed, meaning they are used more efficiently.
• The Southern 313s and 455s will be scrapped.

 

[bramling]

My plan:

• Give the Moorgate to Welwyn / Hertford / Stevenage services to London Overground with any Kings Cross extras being moved to Moorgate.
• Give the Kings Lynn services to LNER, since more of their services will be more regional and commuter based rather than Intercity post HS2. I also propose changing the name to East Coast Trains as it will be much more representative of its service.
• Keep the Kings Cross to Cambridge (dont bother with Maidstone) and Kings Cross to Peterborough (peak) service with Thameslink.
• Bin off the Luton to Rainham route, with Southeastern running a Cannon Street to Rainham service (basically the old Gillingham service a stop further), and Thameslink running Luton to Sevenoaks (Welwyn will be pointless if LO take over those services). Also extend the Orpington services to Luton all day.
• Gatwick Express scrapped with the paths being used to operate extra services (that call at Clapham Junction and East Croydon) onto Brighton and the coastways and end splitting at Haywards Heath (without ruining Brighton services like the current Gatwick works have). Also ends any stupid fare differences between SN and GX.

Rolling stock allocation:

• Greater Anglia Class 379s move to LNER to run the Kings Lynn services. They're refurbished and repainted.
• Great Northern Class 387s move to Southern to operate on the BML
• Class 365s scrapped. With the removal of any Maidstone, Welwyn or Rainham services, the Class 700s should be able to run the Peterborough peak services.
• Class 377/5s moved from Southeastern to Southern with Southeastern getting a new massive fleet of Aventras to replace all of the 376, 465 and 466 fleet which will be scrapped as well as the 377s to move to Southern.
• The C2C 387s also move to Southern when their Aventras arrive.
• The GX 387s will become standard Southern 387s once the brand is removed, meaning they are used more efficiently.
• The Southern 313s and 455s will be scrapped.

Your cascade of 700s onto the 365 services doesn’t work, as a number of these are 12 cars - currently one up service from Peterborough in the morning, and two down in the evening (there’s also a further up evening service but this is more a positioning move that happens to run in service). All your spare 700s are 700/0, so this will represent a reduction in peak seats / capacity, and restrict any future scope for lengthening by locking in fixed-formation 8-car trains.

 

[py_megapixel]

My plan:

• Give the Moorgate to Welwyn / Hertford / Stevenage services to London Overground with any Kings Cross extras being moved to Moorgate.
• Give the Kings Lynn services to LNER, since more of their services will be more regional and commuter based rather than Intercity post HS2. I also propose changing the name to East Coast Trains as it will be much more representative of its service.
• Keep the Kings Cross to Cambridge (dont bother with Maidstone) and Kings Cross to Peterborough (peak) service with Thameslink.
• Bin off the Luton to Rainham route, with Southeastern running a Cannon Street to Rainham service (basically the old Gillingham service a stop further), and Thameslink running Luton to Sevenoaks (Welwyn will be pointless if LO take over those services). Also extend the Orpington services to Luton all day.
• Gatwick Express scrapped with the paths being used to operate extra services (that call at Clapham Junction and East Croydon) onto Brighton and the coastways and end splitting at Haywards Heath (without ruining Brighton services like the current Gatwick works have). Also ends any stupid fare differences between SN and GX.

It seems that your aim here is to massively cut back Thameslink and even completely kill off GX. The latter I am in favour of, but the former just seems daft, undoing all the work of the previous franchise

As for Electrostar cascades, that would be a sensible move for a quick capacity increase. But...

• Class 365s scrapped. With the removal of any Maidstone, Welwyn or Rainham services, the Class 700s should be able to run the Peterborough peak services.

• 
  That's also utterly daft in my opinion. The 365s were only built in the early 1990s and still have plenty of life left in them, why would you want to scrap them?
  
  
  How about instead of diverting 365s away from TSGN, you send the 707s to TSGN instead of SE, and the 365s (being related to the 46x that SE currently operate) to SE?
  
  That way, no useful rolling stock is being scrapped, and both operators end up with fleets that are reasonably close to homogeneous.

 

[Hadders]

My plan:

• Give the Moorgate to Welwyn / Hertford / Stevenage services to London Overground with any Kings Cross extras being moved to Moorgate.
• Give the Kings Lynn services to LNER, since more of their services will be more regional and commuter based rather than Intercity post HS2. I also propose changing the name to East Coast Trains as it will be much more representative of its service.
• Keep the Kings Cross to Cambridge (dont bother with Maidstone) and Kings Cross to Peterborough (peak) service with Thameslink.
• Bin off the Luton to Rainham route, with Southeastern running a Cannon Street to Rainham service (basically the old Gillingham service a stop further), and Thameslink running Luton to Sevenoaks (Welwyn will be pointless if LO take over those services). Also extend the Orpington services to Luton all day.
• Gatwick Express scrapped with the paths being used to operate extra services (that call at Clapham Junction and East Croydon) onto Brighton and the coastways and end splitting at Haywards Heath (without ruining Brighton services like the current Gatwick works have). Also ends any stupid fare differences between SN and GX.

Rolling stock allocation:

• Greater Anglia Class 379s move to LNER to run the Kings Lynn services. They're refurbished and repainted.
• Great Northern Class 387s move to Southern to operate on the BML
• Class 365s scrapped. With the removal of any Maidstone, Welwyn or Rainham services, the Class 700s should be able to run the Peterborough peak services.
• Class 377/5s moved from Southeastern to Southern with Southeastern getting a new massive fleet of Aventras to replace all of the 376, 465 and 466 fleet which will be scrapped as well as the 377s to move to Southern.
• The C2C 387s also move to Southern when their Aventras arrive.
• The GX 387s will become standard Southern 387s once the brand is removed, meaning they are used more efficiently.
• The Southern 313s and 455s will be scrapped.

What problem are you trying so solve with this plan?

 

[londonteacher]

My plan:

• Give the Moorgate to Welwyn / Hertford / Stevenage services to London Overground with any Kings Cross extras being moved to Moorgate.
• Give the Kings Lynn services to LNER, since more of their services will be more regional and commuter based rather than Intercity post HS2. I also propose changing the name to East Coast Trains as it will be much more representative of its service.
• Keep the Kings Cross to Cambridge (dont bother with Maidstone) and Kings Cross to Peterborough (peak) service with Thameslink.
• Bin off the Luton to Rainham route, with Southeastern running a Cannon Street to Rainham service (basically the old Gillingham service a stop further), and Thameslink running Luton to Sevenoaks (Welwyn will be pointless if LO take over those services). Also extend the Orpington services to Luton all day.
• Gatwick Express scrapped with the paths being used to operate extra services (that call at Clapham Junction and East Croydon) onto Brighton and the coastways and end splitting at Haywards Heath (without ruining Brighton services like the current Gatwick works have). Also ends any stupid fare differences between SN and GX.

Rolling stock allocation:

• Greater Anglia Class 379s move to LNER to run the Kings Lynn services. They're refurbished and repainted.
• Great Northern Class 387s move to Southern to operate on the BML
• Class 365s scrapped. With the removal of any Maidstone, Welwyn or Rainham services, the Class 700s should be able to run the Peterborough peak services.
• Class 377/5s moved from Southeastern to Southern with Southeastern getting a new massive fleet of Aventras to replace all of the 376, 465 and 466 fleet which will be scrapped as well as the 377s to move to Southern.
• The C2C 387s also move to Southern when their Aventras arrive.
• The GX 387s will become standard Southern 387s once the brand is removed, meaning they are used more efficiently.
• The Southern 313s and 455s will be scrapped.

I really don't see why the Rainham service needs getting rid of. It is pretty reliable and is a well used service now. The times I have used it is well used from the core to stations on the Woolwich line.

GX, I would argue shouldn't be scrapped but the price difference should be reduced and permanent extensions to Brighton non-stop.

 

[swt_passenger]

Moorgate is already going to get the entire class 717 service 24/7 isn’t it, the services still using Kings Cross are transitional.

There seems little point in proposing something that’s been known about for quite a few years...

 

[choochoochoo]

Moorgate is already going to get the entire class 717 service 24/7 isn’t it, the services still using Kings Cross are transitional.

There seems little point in proposing something that’s been known about for quite a few years...

So those first and last trains out of Kings Cross will eventually migrate to Moorgate ? That's a shame. Those trains from kings cross are really useful trains to have after a night out in London. Getting to Moorgate is a pain at that time of night.

I do wonder if TfL will eventually want night services on that line. Or at least on weekends ?

 

[London Trains]

It seems that your aim here is to massively cut back Thameslink.

Not really, I dont think the Maidstone and Welwyn services will ever go ahead anyway. All I am doing is simplifying the pattern and removing one route which is wildly different to the rest.

 

[ScotGG]

"and the 365s (being related to the 46x that SE currently operate) to SE? "

Do 365s have SDO to utilise all platforms at Charing Cross in 12 car running? If not that's a max of 8 cars.

707s are going to SE to boost capacity above 8 or 10 car Networker diagrams I believe. They're only 10 cars so not utlisiing 12 car platforms sadly but still higher capacity per carriage.

 

[CBlue]

365's haven't run on DC lines for a long time now, I'm sure I've seen posts on here that suggested their 3rd rail fittings were junked a long time ago and that getting them compatible again wasn't really a viable option.

• Give the Kings Lynn services to LNER, since more of their services will be more regional and commuter based rather than Intercity post HS2. I also propose changing the name to East Coast Trains as it will be much more representative of its service.

Adding a 3rd operator through Cambridge makes practically zero sense, IMHO

Services to Lynn also form fasts from Cambridge to Kings X, so all you'd achieve is giving LNER a terminus and route far removed from all their other operations and trashing any efficiency Great Northern provides by interworking the train diagrams.