What is the Covid-19 Exit Strategy of 'Zero Covid' countries such as Hong Kong?

[Green tractor]

Australia sounds like a dystopian police state. If I was there I would also be furious and I would be protesting in any way possible.

Just like your protesting and pushing back in the uk and not going to places that require masks, like Germany......Oh hang on you have just been there, Hmmm

 

[bramling]

and there is no sign of any type of normality, and NZ said its borders closed until 2022 ! together with the lockdowns they will all have gone stir crazy !

I do think we are getting to the point where people are going a bit mad with all this, even over here there’s a definite bad atmosphere at the moment, so I dread to think what it’s like in places where they’re being threatened with being locked up.

I just wish we could stop all this nonsense, including “new normal” or people wanting to exploit the situation so they don’t have to commute to work, and do a proper rewind to 2019. At the moment I still can’t see an end-game in sight, as every time we look to be within reach of it some people seem to want to prolong things. I realise the mortality figures still aren’t wonderful, but what more can we do now?

 

[nw1]

To be fair, people who want to put us under partial house-arrest for several months for the third time in as many years are something of an enemy in by book. However language aside, if we don’t want it then we need to make that clear, as there are people willing it on, for whatever reasons (some no doubt nefarious ones).

Surely we can't have more lockdowns this winter - while I doubt the Conservatives care about the joblessness, poverty and mental health issues this would cause, I suspect some of them, at least, might wish to prevent catastrophic economic damage.

Measures from now on should be restricted to light, non-punitive steps such as masks (I know some here don't like this) and social distancing where practicable. Can the country - indeed can any country - really survive another 5 months of near-continuous lockdown? And with the vaccine is there any real justification for it anyhow?

If they try a lockdown this winter, there will be a real fear by many that we'll have lockdowns every winter for the next 5-10 years. This alone, together with the vaccination programme, will make people less sympathetic this time, I suspect.

 

[bramling]

Surely we can't have more lockdowns this winter - while I doubt the Conservatives care about the joblessness, poverty and mental health issues this would cause, I suspect some of them, at least, might wish to prevent catastrophic economic damage.

Measures from now on should be restricted to light, non-punitive steps such as masks (I know some here don't like this) and social distancing where practicable. Can the country - indeed can any country - really survive another 5 months of near-continuous lockdown? And with the vaccine is there any real justification for it anyhow?

If they try a lockdown this winter, there will be a real fear by many that we'll have lockdowns every winter for the next 5-10 years. This alone, together with the vaccination programme, will make people less sympathetic this time, I suspect.

The thing is, we’ve been here before, this time last year, and all it took was a few tag lines like “terrifying new variant” and “protect the NHS” and people largely went along with it. Notwithstanding the vaccine, after all this I think anything is possible. Remember “we didn’t think we could get away with it, then Italy did it and we realised we could”.

The one thing which possibly might avoid us a further lockdown is the Conservative backbenchers. Even the small matter that it’s completely unaffordable doesn’t seem to be a problem anymore.

 

[yorksrob]

The thing is, we’ve been here before, this time last year, and all it took was a few tag lines like “terrifying new variant” and “protect the NHS” and people largely went along with it. Notwithstanding the vaccine, after all this I think anything is possible. Remember “we didn’t think we could get away with it, then Italy did it and we realised we could”.

The one thing which possibly might avoid us a further lockdown is the Conservative backbenchers. Even the small matter that it’s completely unaffordable doesn’t seem to be a problem anymore.

The only meaning thing that people could do in such circumstances would be to keep meeting and associating with people, even if it meant lying to the authorities. If enough people did it, the Government would soon know that the game was up.

 

[bramling]

The only meaning thing that people could do in such circumstances would be to keep meeting and associating with people, even if it meant lying to the authorities. If enough people did it, the Government would soon know that the game was up.

I’d say we weren’t too far from that January-May this year. Unlike first time round a *lot* of people weren’t taking any notice of the restrictions on meetings. Whether people like Boris, Matt and Priti were aware of this is another matter!

 

[yorksrob]

I’d say we weren’t too far from that January-May this year. Unlike first time round a *lot* of people weren’t taking any notice of the restrictions on meetings. Whether people like Boris, Matt and Priti were aware of this is another matter!

There was a lot less compliance than previously. People were doing it on the sly, but it was happening. I was meeting my friends for outdoor walks and I have no qualms about having done so.

 

[LAX54]

The thing is, we’ve been here before, this time last year, and all it took was a few tag lines like “terrifying new variant” and “protect the NHS” and people largely went along with it. Notwithstanding the vaccine, after all this I think anything is possible. Remember “we didn’t think we could get away with it, then Italy did it and we realised we could”.

The one thing which possibly might avoid us a further lockdown is the Conservative backbenchers. Even the small matter that it’s completely unaffordable doesn’t seem to be a problem anymore.

There was a TV programme on the other night, not about the virus, but it was mentioned, and someone being interviewed said about Covid:
"The Fear is now stronger than the virus" which could well be true

 

[nw1]

I’d say we weren’t too far from that January-May this year. Unlike first time round a *lot* of people weren’t taking any notice of the restrictions on meetings. Whether people like Boris, Matt and Priti were aware of this is another matter!

Well, "Matt" certainly wasn't taking any notice of the restrictions, that's for sure!

But what would be gained from further lockdowns? What justification would there be? Given vaccination rates are high, I suspect we're not going to get high death tolls. And high cases without high death tolls does not justify lockdown in any way - that has been the situation this summer. GIven the pattern of these outbreaks, which seem to be on around a 6-8 month cycle, I suspect there will be a trough in the autumn anyhow - with even less justification for lockdown.

I suspect the Epsilon mutation (or whatever they call the next one when it comes, perhaps Jan-Feb) will have a lower death rate than the previous, as the pattern of viruses seems to be to become more transmissible but less dangerous. So again, unlikely to be much justification for lockdown.

The other issue is that lockdowns go on too long. The "British" mutation seemed to drop off during February - so why did they wait until April 12 to end the lockdown (I know there were still some restrictions after that date, but April 12 was when most things could open again) and May 15 to allow international travel? By the time lockdowns end, the next wave is already coming in.

 

[yorksrob]

Well, "Matt" certainly wasn't taking any notice of the restrictions, that's for sure!

But what would be gained from further lockdowns? What justification would there be? Given vaccination rates are high, I suspect we're not going to get high death tolls. And high cases without high death tolls does not justify lockdown in any way - that has been the situation this summer. GIven the pattern of these outbreaks, which seem to be on around a 6-8 month cycle, I suspect there will be a trough in the autumn anyhow - with even less justification for lockdown.

I suspect the Epsilon mutation (or whatever they call the next one when it comes, perhaps Jan-Feb) will have a lower death rate than the previous, as the pattern of viruses seems to be to become more transmissible but less dangerous. So again, unlikely to be much justification for lockdown.

The other issue is that lockdowns go on too long. The "British" mutation seemed to drop off during February - so why did they wait until April 12 to end the lockdown (I know there were still some restrictions after that date, but April 12 was when most things could open again) and May 15 to allow international travel? By the time lockdowns end, the next wave is already coming in.

Don't forget, we had the policy of "data not dates", which involved plucking a series of arbitrary "not before" dates out of thin air and ignoring any data that suggested they were overly cautious.

 

[brad465]

New Zealand now has 72 active community cases (less than week after the first case). There's also an expectation that Level 4 lockdown will be extended in Auckland and Wellington, but there maybe some relaxation elsewhere. However there's also talk that check-ins like that we've seen over here will become compulsory.

New Zealand reports 21 new Covid cases as Delta outbreak grows

The country, which was due to emerge from lockdown on Tuesday, now has 72 active cases

www.theguardian.com

New Zealand recorded 21 new cases of Covid-19 on Sunday as the outbreak of the Delta variant continued to grow, bringing associated infections to 72, health officials said.

Of the 21 new cases, 20 were in Auckland, the largest city, and one in the capital, Wellington. Five people were in hospital but no one was in intensive care.

New Zealand is under a strict lockdown until midnight on Tuesday as the outbreak has widened beyond the two key cities. The prime minister, Jacinda Ardern, would convene her cabinet on Monday to confirm lockdown extensions for Auckland and Wellington, and consider restriction levels for the rest of the country, AAP reported.

On Sunday the Covid-19 minister Chris Hipkins said scanning in at places and gatherings would become compulsory to aid with contact tracing. Ardern’s government had pushed back against the measure for months.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/c...asy-to-forget-covid-now-we-are-too-complacent
“We’ve been exploring how best to do this,” Hipkins said, saying the delay was down to overcoming legal, privacy and technical hurdles.

The government will also allow for childcare for households where both parents are essential workers – allowing emergency service workers and border workers to return to the frontline.

The director general of health, Ashley Bloomfield, revealed a potential super-spreader event had taken place at the Samoa Assembly of God’s church service last Sunday. He urged attendees to isolate and get tested urgently.

“Several of the new cases are linked to [that] church service,” he said.

“It’s one of a number of large gatherings and we’ve got several large schools also involved. This is a priority for our contact tracing efforts.”

Bloomfield commended New Zealand’s Pacific community – which has been the centre of previous outbreaks – for responding to the call to get tested.

“They’re very good at mobilising to get tested … by far the highest rates of testing is among our Pacific community,” he said.

Hipkins said about a million people gad been fully vaccinated in New Zealand, after more than 50,000 doses of the vaccine were given on Saturday. “We continue to deliver incredible numbers we can be proud of,” he said.

 

[Ianno87]

OK, the following story should make even the most die-hard locktivists realise that Australia has gone properly bat-**** crazy...

Rescue dogs shot dead by Bourke Shire Council due to COVID-19 restrictions

amp.smh.com.au

Several impounded dogs due to be rescued by a shelter have instead been shot dead by a rural council in NSW under its interpretation of COVID-19 restrictions, alarming animal activists and prompting a government probe.

Bourke Shire Council, in the state’s north-west, killed the dogs to prevent volunteers at a Cobar-based animal shelter from travelling to pick up the animals last week, according to council’s watchdog, the Office of Local Government.

Continues...

 

[Darandio]

Anyone behind that decision should be locked up for a long time. What a world we now live in.

 

[bramling]

Anyone behind that decision should be locked up for a long time. What a world we now live in.

Weak politicians who are scared to be robust with their citizens (yet somehow it's acceptable to "lock you all up for your own safety").

 

[brad465]

Looks like even the NZ Government is doubting its own strategy:

Covid: New Zealand pandemic strategy in doubt amid Delta spread

The highly infectious Delta variant "does change the game", the Covid response minister says.

www.bbc.co.uk

The arrival of the highly infectious Delta variant "does raise some big questions" about New Zealand's pandemic response, a minister has said.
Covid-19 response minister Chris Hipkins said the variant "changes the game considerably" and makes existing protections "look less adequate".
It comes as the country announced a further 21 confirmed cases in the latest outbreak of the virus.
New Zealand had quashed earlier Covid outbreaks with rapid, strict lockdowns.
The country was praised for its efforts, which effectively stopped the spread of the virus. Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern has repeatedly referred to New Zealand as "our team of five million".
According to Johns Hopkins University data, there have been 3,016 total confirmed cases in the country, and 26 reported deaths.
But authorities recently announced a snap lockdown after one man tested positive in Auckland with the Delta variant.
There are now 72 active cases. Seven schools in the city have reported positive cases among students, and the country has also announced six infections in the capital, Wellington.
Officials are now warning that they will probably extend the Auckland lockdown, which is set to expire on Tuesday.

 

[kristiang85]

OK, the following story should make even the most die-hard locktivists realise that Australia has gone properly bat-**** crazy...

Rescue dogs shot dead by Bourke Shire Council due to COVID-19 restrictions

amp.smh.com.au

I'm actually speechless.

 

[RPI]

Seeing all this going on makes it look like Bozo maybe hasn't been that bad after all, now whether that's luck or judgment I'll leave that to the individual to decide!

 

[greyman42]

Seeing all this going on makes it look like Bozo maybe hasn't been that bad after all, now whether that's luck or judgment I'll leave that to the individual to decide!

And to think it was not that long ago that people were singing the praises of Australia.

 

[hst43102]

Seeing all this going on makes it look like Bozo maybe hasn't been that bad after all, now whether that's luck or judgment I'll leave that to the individual to decide!

Absolutely not. Bozo and his bunch of clowns have been absolutely devastatingly terrible. Most of these others have just been much worse.

 

[bramling]

Absolutely not. Bozo and his bunch of clowns have been absolutely devastatingly terrible. Most of these others have just been worse.

Boris is a horrific leader, and lest we never forget the whole thing is far from over - whatever Covid does next we still have the almighty fall-out from it. I simply don’t rate the competence of this lot to sort it all out.

 

[43066]

Boris is a horrific leader, and lest we never forget the whole thing is far from over - whatever Covid does next we still have the almighty fall-out from it. I simply don’t rate the competence of this lot to sort it all out.

Agreed. Although I daresay we will be voting for him again in due course, if it’s a choice between him and Starmer. If Boris has been bad, and he has, just imagine for minute how the last two years would have been if Corbyn had somehow got into number 10.

You couldn’t make it up. At least we aren’t governed by the Taliban, that’s about the only grain of comfort I can find in our current political situation!

 

[hst43102]

Boris is a horrific leader, and lest we never forget the whole thing is far from over - whatever Covid does next we still have the almighty fall-out from it. I simply don’t rate the competence of this lot to sort it all out.

I don't think we're going to forget any time soon. I'm almost certainly going to be paying this off for the rest of my life - and I'm not even in a proper job yet!

Anyway, back to the topic...

 

[bramling]

Agreed. Although I daresay we will be voting for him again in due course, if it’s a choice between him and Starmer. If Boris has been bad, and he has, just imagine for minute how the last two years would have been if Corbyn had somehow got into number 10.

You couldn’t make it up. At least we aren’t governed by the Taliban, that’s about the only grain of comfort I can find in our current political situation!

Lol that’s about the sum total of it. A future election puts me in a difficult position as I am extremely loathed to vote for any Conservative government led by Johnson, as I now consider him to be *that* unfit for office. Like you say, the alternatives are equally awful though.

For now I guess the only thing is an element of lobbying to try and nudge regime change in the Conservative party, but then the potential replacements are all equally toxic. At least Javid seems to be back, but I think he would always come second to Sunak, goodness knows why though.

But going back to topic, is Johnson better than Jacinda, that’s just impossible to answer. It really is a toss between having a tooth pulled out and having a tooth pulled out. Perhaps we could borrow the Swedish government, who at least seem to have demonstrated some leadership, but I’m not sure their approach would have worked here either, we’d still have been fighting over toilet rolls and masks.

 

[brad465]

Ricky Gervais has tweeted in disgust about the news coming out of Australia regarding the rescue dogs, to the point he dropped the c-bomb to describe those who shot them.

 

[nw1]

Agreed. Although I daresay we will be voting for him again in due course, if it’s a choice between him and Starmer.

Warning: anti-gov rant follows:

Hmmm.. while I'm not that impressed by Starmer, he's a good deal better than Bozo. The current government are essentially just a bunch of overgrown University Conservative Club yobs who have no clue what to do and how to react. The sensible, grown-up, mature people like Hammond and the like have gone - those that remain, such as May (who I am also not a fan of, but in retrospect isn't nearly so bad and rates only 4th-worst IMO out of 7 for all PMs since 1979) are nowhere near power or influence.

Another charge I would level at the current government, is that they have legitimised xenophobia by their appalling treatment of EU nationals, which I am afraid in my book is a big, big red flag. They have also ruined relations between the UK and our closest cultural and geographical neighbours. Priti Patel in particular, as well as being a strident pro-lockdown authoritarian, seems to me someone with a pathological dislike of immigration, which fior her in particular is rather hard to understand.

Personally I think that by 2024, probably before, we'll be suffering the full-on social and economic consequences of the Covid crisis, and other off-topic matters, so I suspect the alternative to Bozo, whoever that might be, will be in with a good chance because people will want a change and genuine hope, not a government who appears to not give a damn about anyone but their buddies. And will people really want 19 years of Conservative government? (assuming the next one stays in power until 2029)? Aren't people fed up of them by now? If they remain in power until 2029 then they'll have been in power for a ridiculous 37 out of 50 years starting 1979 despite never getting more than about 43% of the vote. That is not true democracy.

But back on-topic, the treatment of the dogs is quite simply appalling. People who are so paranoid about Covid that innocent animals, who were about to be re-homed, should be murdered are reminiscent of medieval extremists who performed witch-trials.

 

[Spamcan81]

Anyone behind that decision should be locked up for a long time. What a world we now live in.

Chucked in a lake full of alligators more like.

 

[brad465]

I predict they may have to do this a lot more in the winter.

I think beyond question your prediction here in May was correct.

 

[Yew]

Agreed. Although I daresay we will be voting for him again in due course, if it’s a choice between him and Starmer. If Boris has been bad, and he has, just imagine for minute how the last two years would have been if Corbyn had somehow got into number 10.

I don't know, I don't think the papers would have let "Comrade Corbyn" get away with his "Chinese Communist Lockdowns".

 

[brad465]

I don't know, I don't think the papers would have let "Comrade Corbyn" get away with his "Chinese Communist Lockdowns".

Yes I certainly think that were a Labour Government in charge the papers would have been piling on a relentless anti-lockdown campaign, and may even have gone far enough to incite civil unrest. There's already been criticism of lockdowns from within the Tory party and those who admired Johnson for Brexit have loathed him on covid.

In Australia I haven't seen much of what the press has been doing on the issue of restrictions, other than Sky News Australia getting in trouble for apparent covid misinformation, but would have thought Murdoch would try to keep the support up for the current administration. If the Australian Labor party were in charge I suspect the onsalught against restrictions would have been much stronger. Many of the countries that have imposed lockdowns typically don't have a media that is as opinionated as it is here, the US or Australia; or if they do their voting systems are setup to make media agendas difficult to push successfully. This is certainly the case with New Zealand, and in some key European countries.

 

[adc82140]

There really is no exit strategy. The Aussie states are infighting now

Gladys’s message to smug states

Gladys Berejiklian has hit back at state premiers who have threatened not to reopen their borders with NSW, warning travel restrictions will have to ease “eventually”.

www.news.com.au

Gladys Berejiklian has hit back at state premiers who have threatened not to reopen their borders with NSW, warning travel restrictions will have to ease “eventually”.

Queensland Deputy Premier Steven Miles on Monday said the border could remained closed to NSW even when vaccination rates reached 80 per cent.

So does Steven Miles think that Queensland should be cut off from the rest of the world forever? Is he a vaccine effeciecy denier?