What will happen to the London Midland Franchise at the next change?

[infobleep]

I don't think it has ever been explicitly ruled out, but the TSGN consultation didn't rule it in either. They only really explain that combining the two franchise areas is the best way of dealing with the staged way various routes are transferred between what would otherwise have been separate TOCs.

Reading between the lines that could be interpreted as when the changes are all complete it might be remapped again. Of course there's also TfL's medium term aim to take over all the SN metro routes - so if that happened would the remainder of 'Southern', i.e. the non-Thameslink core routes ever justify a separate franchise again?

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It's quite important to be aware of the very latest updates isn't it, because anyone relying on memories of the October 14 version will recall that back then it did use the term 'create two new franchises focused on different markets'...

If TfL took over all London metro routes I think that would be really interesting. Would make fares interesting. Even just taking over Southern metro isn't without issues, given Southern run a few trains day into Guildford and trains into Dorking Main, both if which have SWT services from them. Anyway that's for another discussion another time.

Back on topic. If someone else took over the Tring to Euston services, would there be more chance of them running on time? I nicknamed the train company, the Late London Midland, as the train rare left Harrow and Wealdstone on time and often arrived into Euston late. It often delayed the South Croydon trains.

 

[Bletchleyite]

Back on topic. If someone else took over the Tring to Euston services, would there be more chance of them running on time?

I very much doubt it. The sloppy punctuality on south WCML commuter services has often to do with how crowded the WCML is at that time of day - it really doesn't take much to knock things 5-10 minutes out.

Indeed, I would expect punctuality will get far worse if it's Crossrail, as at least when operating from Euston the impact of an inbound delay is reduced a bit by the layover.

 

[the sniper]

The WMR update presentation on the above site doesn't refer to two new franchises.
It describes two distinct business units within the wider LM franchise, formed a year into the new franchise.
If this happens they will have the same operator.

It's quite important to be aware of the very latest updates isn't it, because anyone relying on memories of the October 14 version will recall that back then it did use the term 'create two new franchises focused on different markets'...

You're very right. Thanks for highlighting this change LNW-GW Joint, well worth everyone who was familiar with the previous proposal taking a look at the Update PDF : http://www.westmidlandsrail.com/media/2748/wmr-update-april-2015.pdf

The most interesting slide is this one:

 

[swt_passenger]

Right - so with that diagram we now see a proposal to split the franchise into two in about Sept 2024, and the careful use of colour coding does hint at the 'connect' being linked to the WCML franchise, with another hint being the reference to preparing for change during the run up to HS2.

So back to square one perhaps?

 

[pt_mad]

This document from Centro may shed some light:

http://centro.org.uk/media/568360/london-midlands-direct-award.pdf


Highlights:
3.1 The current London Midland franchise (properly known as the West Midlands franchise) will end in March 2016 having been extended a maximum seven 4-week periods from September 2015. The current DfT refranchising programme indicates that the new West Midlands franchise will commence in June 2017. West Midlands Rail’s devolution proposal is currently being considered by the DfT

3.2 The DfT intends now, subject to satisfactory negotiations with LM, to let a new 15 month interim contract (The Direct Award) for the period April 2016 to June 2017 to cover the period up to new franchise award. This Direct Award will be a completely new franchise agreement negotiated with the incumbent operator (i.e. GoVia/London Midland). The negotiation of Direct Award contracts is a DfT policy to facilitate the creation of a manageable (for both DfT and bidders) national re-franchising programme that meets the recommendations of the Brown Review that followed the difficulties experienced with the InterCity West Coast franchise process.

3.3 As the DfT is negotiating with a single supplier, it will reserve the right to appoint the state-owned Directly Operated Railways or another competent body to run the franchise in the event that agreement cannot be reached with London Midland.

3.4 This franchise agreement is not an extension of the current London Midland franchise, but a wholly new contract with different terms and conditions.

 

[LNW-GW Joint]

This document from Centro may shed some light:
http://centro.org.uk/media/568360/london-midlands-direct-award.pdf
Highlights:
3.1 The current London Midland franchise (properly known as the West Midlands franchise) will end in March 2016 having been extended a maximum seven 4-week periods from September 2015. The current DfT refranchising programme indicates that the new West Midlands franchise will commence in June 2017. West Midlands Rail’s devolution proposal is currently being considered by the DfT

3.2 The DfT intends now, subject to satisfactory negotiations with LM, to let a new 15 month interim contract (The Direct Award) for the period April 2016 to June 2017 to cover the period up to new franchise award. This Direct Award will be a completely new franchise agreement negotiated with the incumbent operator (i.e. GoVia/London Midland). The negotiation of Direct Award contracts is a DfT policy to facilitate the creation of a manageable (for both DfT and bidders) national re-franchising programme that meets the recommendations of the Brown Review that followed the difficulties experienced with the InterCity West Coast franchise process.

3.3 As the DfT is negotiating with a single supplier, it will reserve the right to appoint the state-owned Directly Operated Railways or another competent body to run the franchise in the event that agreement cannot be reached with London Midland.

3.4 This franchise agreement is not an extension of the current London Midland franchise, but a wholly new contract with different terms and conditions.

That just covers the Direct Award, and doesn't tell us anything about the detail of the new franchise.
The ball is still very much with the (new) DfT on that.
By coincidence, while I'm typing this, Radio 4 News is saying today's LM services are disrupted by cable theft...

 

[wellwhatitis]

I would just like to thank everybody for the useful and insightful information posted. Do people really think that West Midland Devolution could actually happen in 2017? I think that may be optimistic. And judging by the multicolour timescale, the LM West Coast operation will not be merged with the West Coast InterCity until much later. I think things are still very much up in the air personally.

 

[The Ham]

And with HS2 in the pipeline it'll make even more sense, with the current WCML expresses degraded to a regional service anyway.

Which could also be an argument for it staying as a separate franchise to ICWC; as ICWC would then run HS2 and any remaining paths solely on the WCML would be moved to the new regional West Coast Connect franchise.