edwin_m
Veteran Member
However if enough people decide that Brexit was a bad idea, the fact that we only got it because the Johnson clique hoodwinked the public means it's more likely to count against them.
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When Will It All Go Wrong For The Tories/ Johnson?
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DelayRepay
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I agree with you on the £350m - although I am surprised that questions haven't been raised about where that money went, given that National Insurance is being increased to... fund the NHS.
I disagree that Brexit won't impact the Tory party's fortunes today. I think in 2019, some people voted Tory because they were the party that promised to 'Get Brexit Done'. That election was really the last stand of the Remain campaign, and Remain lost.
If people are dissatisfied with the outcome of the actual Brexit, this is quite likely to hurt the Tory party because people who voted leave are unlikely to think 'well that was my mistake'. They will either blame Boris for lying to them, or for not delivering on his promises.
Of course this depends on how many actual problems are directly linked to Brexit - at the moment the pandemic is providing good cover.
So overall I think the Tory party's fortunes depend on what happens over the winter. If we do have problems with the food supply, problems with energy supply, problems with the NHS, high inflation, coupled with the NI increase, I can see that harming their standing. Maybe it won't harm it too much. Many of these problems are linked to, or can be blamed on Covid, there's no real opposition and the next election is a few years away.
The thread is called 'When will it all go wrong for the Tories/Johnson' but I think they're two different questions. I think the Tories will be fine whatever happens. I'm less sure how long Johnson will be allowed to carry on as PM if we do have a rough winter.
Because the "Remain" (and/or second referendum) vote was split several ways, whereas the "Leave" vote went to the Tories by the Brexit party being tactical where they stood for election so as not to split the vote.
A thorough analysis, if I may say so. In particular the very last point. The Conservatives are not sentimental about its leaders and will ditch those whose time has come in a flash. Just as Johnson blamed May for not getting Brexit done, he will be blamed for higher taxes/ prices or anything else, not his cabinet. There are also a few on the backbenches who have wisely steered clear of government as well as ambitious members of the cabinet who would happily take on the mantle of leadership.
One part I would question is 'the next election is a few years away', surely the next election may be a few years away? Currently, it has to take place no later than May 2024, but could be earlier (or later) if MPs pass the Dissolution and Calling of Parliament Bill (or trigger an early election). The Conservatives may want to ensure that voter ID has become law as well.
One part I would question is 'the next election is a few years away', surely the next election may be a few years away? Currently, it has to take place no later than May 2024, but could be earlier (or later) if MPs pass the Dissolution and Calling of Parliament Bill (or trigger an early election). The Conservatives may want to ensure that voter ID has become law as well.
birchesgreen
Established Member
Questions have been raised, the SNP raised the question in the House this week and were batted away with its "old news".
brad465
Established Member
There's talk in some circles of an election next year, as the Tories can see things are clearly not going to get any better for them regarding Brexit, so the longer they leave it the worse their chances are of winning one. There'll try and get the relevant legislation in their favour through Parliament first of course. This though was before this NI tax rise and before what could be considered "Winter of Discontent 2" on the horizon the way things are currently going, in particular as the tax rise is not going to take effect until April next year, when its effects would be being noticed at the worst possible time if an election did happen next year.
I doubt there would be an election next year.
Theres no compelling need to.
The country is in a “dotcom bubble” right now, in the 90’s the Millenium Bug was the todays Covid, skills shortages, high demand, invisible but high inflation, tolerated faults in a feel good way, even the era’s president had a highly amusing personal life that everyone let slip by. No one cared.
At some point the bubble bursts… people feel the inflation, discover the demand was illusionary and the threat of that big bad bug has receded…pop.. goes the economy, jobs go south,inflation goes north, fortunes lost and a lot of disquiet…
in my opinion Farage bought the last election, those deposits for candidtes to slice off just a few votes from Labour seats, into a Brexit votes just enough to steal a majority for conservatives to win in those areas And bring a majority win.
Now Brexit is done, those votes could well peel back and restore those marginals back again.. whether it does or not, Boris wont have anything to stand for.. Brexit done, Covid done.., even Churchill was ousted after ww2.. purely because the job was done and everyone has had just about enough and it was time for change… and thats without any more drama coming our way to focus minds.
For now Boris might as well sit and enjoy it, as the next election wont be gifted to him on a plate he’ll actually have to work for it..so he may just retire 12 months before hand.
edwin_m
Veteran Member
Plus in many constituencies, voting for the anti-Brexit candidate with the best chance of winning carried the risk of propelling Corbyn into power (and it wasn't clear whether Labour was anti-Brexit in any case). The LibDems were wholly over-confident in claiming they could win in many more places than was realistic. Both contributed to splitting the Remain vote while the Brexit vote was directed to one candidate in most winnable constituencies.
People will start blaming the Tories less for Brexit once this current PM and majority of the cabinet is replaced by more moderate and competent Tories (or a different party altogether!)
Many of those in our cabinet are part of the Leave government, and should rightly continue to be held to account for their blatant lies and the mess we find ourselves in today. We really shouldn’t just ‘move on’.
Many of those in our cabinet are part of the Leave government, and should rightly continue to be held to account for their blatant lies and the mess we find ourselves in today. We really shouldn’t just ‘move on’.
Lib dems are always over confident, but its better than the alternative to just sit there predicting doom.
Personally I think parties are out dated, going back to civil war tribes forming coalitions instead of pitch forks… back In the days even before messages were tied to pigeons feet.
Before 2016 i’d say follow the swiss model of civil voting on just about anything, but thats how we got Brexit and BoatyMcBoatface.
Instead i’d just say have 650 independant candidates, get them to collate the local consensus on various issues and go back to parliament and vote on an issue by issue basis without alignment to anyone tribe or being Beaten to submission on all aspects of a secret covens‘ agenda and the spells and potions it mystically conjures up.
I’m politically agnostic btw, my vote is for sale on ebay, hoping it will pay for some fuel.
daodao
Established Member
I'm no fan of Bojo, but he did get Brexit done, and we should just "move on". It was yesterday's issue (except in the 6 counties). Do you really think that the French would agree to Perfidious Albion getting closer to or re-joining the EU anytime soon? The current problems of high gas prices, climate change, Covid etc. are not linked to Brexit, and how the current government deals with these issues will determine its future prospects.
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It really isn’t ‘yesterday’s issue’. We are seeing the impacts now, and will continue to do for some time until it will hopefully settle down whenever that will be (and no one really knows the answer to when it will settle down).
Im not saying if we should rejoin the EU or not, but I’m saying the government needs to be held to account, and many of those in our current government are responsible for the mess. Comments and announcements which are later found to be exaggerated or completely untrue should be highlighted, not brushed under the carpet.
brad465
Established Member
This is a good concept, but it will ultimately fail without proper education of the population at large, and I don't just mean education to learn how to memorise information for exams, I mean education on key facts of getting through life, critical thinking and analysis. Many of these things though are not well taught in this country, which I strongly believe is because successive Governments under our current political system would not be in power were we all better educated.
edwin_m
Veteran Member
Possibly, but I'd suggest two other things are more achievable, which I assume the Swiss do but certainly weren't evident here in 2016:
- Even if educated, most of general public isn't going to have a detailed understanding of the implications of a complex policy change or any particular desire to find out, so will have to rely on explanations provided by politicians. It's probably unavoidable that promises will be made that may not be kept, as circumstances always change. But there needs to be a basic culture where established facts are respected. The Leave faction did not do this, being criticised by the non-political statistics authority on the £350million and also pushing falsehoods such as the idea the UK couldn't stop Turkey joining the EU.
- Proposals put to referendum need to be clear and unambiguous, which Brexit certainly wasn't, so the people who supported it might have done so for a wide range of reasons and not all will have got what they wanted. If a general principle is put to referendum before developing specifics, then it needs to be put to the vote again once those specifics are established.
DynamicSpirit
Established Member
More precisely, maybe it's today's issue to the extent that the effects of Brexit are being felt today. However, it's yesterday's issue to the extent that it was a lie that happened more than 5 years ago, and was widely reported, and pointed out to be untrue, at the time: It's not like it's something that's only just suddenly come to light today, and it seems very plausible - probable, even - that Brexit would have happened anyway, even without that lie. People subsequently voted Tory in 2017 and 2019, knowing about that lie - presumably, most of those people felt that the lie was outweighed by other reasons for voting Tory. In moral terms - yes, probably Boris should have been held to account at the time, but we don't really have any mechanisms in the UK to do that. In political terms, it's long since water under the bridge: It's not something that's likely to have any significant impact on Tory support in the coming years.
That probably applies to a lot of MPs and at least some of the cabinet
brad465
Established Member
IF enough young people outraged by this move remember this at the next election and vote, who otherwise wouldn't have done so before, this proposal could well backfire on the Tories if implemented:
on.ft.com
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Perhaps it's worth adding that the threshold for repayments was increased substantially under May in an attempt to get more young Tory voters, this undoes that.
Fresher's Week - nice timing!!IF enough young people outraged by this move remember this at the next election and vote, who otherwise wouldn't have done so before, this proposal could well backfire on the Tories if implemented:
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Perhaps it's worth adding that the threshold for repayments was increased substantially under May in an attempt to get more young Tory voters, this undoes that.
brad465
Established Member
But it's also been well timed to bury it under all the fuel shortage news (apart from the FT who have it on their front page and website). That said it would have to be announced in the Budget, where it would be harder to disguise (although I wouldn't rule out them trying more prolific stuff to cover it up).
True, but for a university political society representing the LibDems, Greens, Labour or any one of a number of socialist societies, it is good recruitment publicity. However, for the Conservative Club (it was in my day), 'sign up for the party that will make you pay more for your student loan', I'm not so sure.
Dai Corner
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Do the Tories 'need' the student vote, or have much expectation of getting it?
Expectation, no idea. I struggle to understand the strategy of most political parties is in that regard.
I would have thought establishing a link with students, involving them, would help them develop potential activists for the future. They may just be casual members now but the party has their contacts, help draw them in for later; joining societies is natural at university, less so in the real world. Too much going on, new job, new place to live, before long maybe family responsibilities, mortgage, then suddenly middle age kicks in. I have the impression that the Conservatives have been better at drawing in young members of late, I'm not certain this will help.
It may also dampen the enthusiasm of those who had previously signed up, who may let their membership lapse.
brad465
Established Member
They probably don't need them to vote Tory, but I strongly believe they need as many of them as possible to not vote. If a move like this encouraged more students, past and present, to vote for non-Tory parties who otherwise wouldn't have voted at all, this risks costing them seats.
Thanks for that. I hadn't thought about past students. On top of increased fuel charges, food costs, NI, doubtless Council Tax will be going up, personal allowances frozen. Fortunately for HMG next year's election timetable is lighter than this year's. There are the London Boroughs, though, and they will be reported simply because they will be taking place (almost) in many reporters' back yards.
Interesting headline from the Daily Express given on MSN:
Do they not realise that if you take an 's' away from the quote it applies to someone else?
brad465
Established Member
Yes while changing the tuition fee values doesn't affect past students so much, especially if fees are increased, a retrospective change to repayment conditions for all student loans definitely does. I don't know how many students will be affected, but the current setup was introduced in 2012, so nearly a decade's worth already. If this policy was somewhat necessary I would only bring it in for future students, like they did with the 2012 fee increases and improvements to repayment schedules.
Busaholic
Veteran Member
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Another issue that has received little or no attention in the media until featured in Radio 4's live 'Money Box' programme two days ago is that many people who passed state retirement age in July this year and since have not yet received a penny of the money due. Apparently approx 100 staff were taken off the processing of these payments to focus on making payments to the women who have been underpaid on existing pensions, which has recently been covered in the media. I don't know what I'd have done if my first pension hadn't come through on time (well, a week late due to some sophistry on the part of DWP!)
I heard that too. I apologise for correcting you but I've listened to the podcast and they stated it was 500 staff have been taken off; the number of people affected may be as many as 80,000 (although the Department of Work and Pensions (DWP) disputes this).
One chap applied in May for a July start but got his first installment about 6 weeks late and expects the rest next month (October). What was worse is that they had been unable to tell him when he would receive his money this year. My first thought, is why why was he not given all of the amount they owed him (is the Magic Money Tree not playing ball?) Secondly, when I became eligible, I deferred receipt of my pension because of a family situation. Effectively these people have deferred their pensions, I would be looking for enhancement.
Unfortunately, the Secretary of State's (Therese Coffey) grasp on her department's benefits seems to be hazy, believing that those on Universal Credit losing £20 a week when the temporary uplift is taken away, will only have to work for 2 extra hours a week to make this up, seemingly ignorant of the universal credit taper which means the vast majority of claimants keep just 37p for every extra pound earned. The minister responsible was 'unavailable' which means listeners get only the 'government incompetence' view. This reluctance to be interviewed on a number of difficult matters means there is no one to effectively counter the impression that ministers are not in control. I know it worked for the PM when he sought sanctuary in a refrigeration unit, but I suspect that is a one-off.
At some point people will surely realise that Brexit is not some sort of magic solution to all their problems, as the Tories and UKIP have convinced people that it somehow is.
Brexit is already causing problems, and I suspect it will make the prolonged post-lockdown recession even worse than it would have been otherwise. That I suspect is the time "Boris" has a chance of falling.
I still struggle to accept that there was a valid reason for Brexit, and there is certainly no reason for the hard, restriction- and bureaucracy-laden Brexit beloved of 'Boris' and the current Government. To my mind, it was simply a device to allow the Conservatives to win seats with a relatively large proportion of social conservatives, but low proportion of economic conservatives - something they have succeeded in doing. Essentially Brexit was not for the good of the country, but for the good of the Conservative Party. Quite how something which increases bureaucracy, has caused food shortages in the shops, puts restrictions on immigration, limits UK citizens to 90 days on the continent in every 6 months (probably the worst rights we've had in modern times: before the EU, I'm guessing you could have spent 3 months in France, then 3 months in Germany, etc... - something you can't do now), and gives the UK an image of an isolated, insular and xenophobic nation is a good thing, I don't know. It's good for the Conservatives (for now), yes - but not good for anyone else.
I suspect "Boris" will fall, just like they all did. And "Boris" is a weaker leader than Thatcher or Blair, so I suspect his time will come significantly sooner than either of those two. There will I suspect be a severe recession and people will blame the Tories for the two things that caused it: firstly over-prolonged lockdown and secondly Brexit.
Add to that the restrictions on political freedom being introduced by the Tories such as the Policing Bill and Elections Bill, and they are beginning to show serious signs of an autocratic tendency.
The hope (if you don't like the Tories) is that there are no other 'personality politicians' besides 'Boris'. The rest are dull individuals which I suspect will struggle to appeal to voters on a personal level. And some, like Patel, are (IMV and I know others) actively obnoxious.
But Labour are being weak. Labour could attack the Tories on all this and more and don't seem to be doing so nearly strongly enough. And Labour and the Lib Dems need to accept that neither will probably get a majority next time, and work together to defeat the current government.
For all these reasons I think 2024 (assuming that is when the election is) is, at the moment, too close to call.
But if 'Boris', Patel, Raab and the other right-wing zealots went and were replaced by a new Tory government which wished to build bridges with continental Europe, that wouldn't be nearly so bad. Just hoping that there are some Tories which go along with the right-wing cr*p to avoid being deselected, but really despise it and are waiting for their moment to stage a coup within the party.
Brexit is already causing problems, and I suspect it will make the prolonged post-lockdown recession even worse than it would have been otherwise. That I suspect is the time "Boris" has a chance of falling.
I still struggle to accept that there was a valid reason for Brexit, and there is certainly no reason for the hard, restriction- and bureaucracy-laden Brexit beloved of 'Boris' and the current Government. To my mind, it was simply a device to allow the Conservatives to win seats with a relatively large proportion of social conservatives, but low proportion of economic conservatives - something they have succeeded in doing. Essentially Brexit was not for the good of the country, but for the good of the Conservative Party. Quite how something which increases bureaucracy, has caused food shortages in the shops, puts restrictions on immigration, limits UK citizens to 90 days on the continent in every 6 months (probably the worst rights we've had in modern times: before the EU, I'm guessing you could have spent 3 months in France, then 3 months in Germany, etc... - something you can't do now), and gives the UK an image of an isolated, insular and xenophobic nation is a good thing, I don't know. It's good for the Conservatives (for now), yes - but not good for anyone else.
I suspect "Boris" will fall, just like they all did. And "Boris" is a weaker leader than Thatcher or Blair, so I suspect his time will come significantly sooner than either of those two. There will I suspect be a severe recession and people will blame the Tories for the two things that caused it: firstly over-prolonged lockdown and secondly Brexit.
Add to that the restrictions on political freedom being introduced by the Tories such as the Policing Bill and Elections Bill, and they are beginning to show serious signs of an autocratic tendency.
The hope (if you don't like the Tories) is that there are no other 'personality politicians' besides 'Boris'. The rest are dull individuals which I suspect will struggle to appeal to voters on a personal level. And some, like Patel, are (IMV and I know others) actively obnoxious.
But Labour are being weak. Labour could attack the Tories on all this and more and don't seem to be doing so nearly strongly enough. And Labour and the Lib Dems need to accept that neither will probably get a majority next time, and work together to defeat the current government.
For all these reasons I think 2024 (assuming that is when the election is) is, at the moment, too close to call.
But if 'Boris', Patel, Raab and the other right-wing zealots went and were replaced by a new Tory government which wished to build bridges with continental Europe, that wouldn't be nearly so bad. Just hoping that there are some Tories which go along with the right-wing cr*p to avoid being deselected, but really despise it and are waiting for their moment to stage a coup within the party.
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PMs always do, I can't think of the last one who got their timing right*. Attlee and Churchill weren't the worst but just about every other has gone on too long (or shouldn't have been there in the first place, effectively the same thing). Johnson would want his place on the world stage (COPT-26) so is unlikely to be able to avoid the fallout of the impending price rises.
* - possibly Baldwin (before my time).
nlogax
Established Member
Johnson's eventual failure needs the context of a stronger / up and coming successor. Maybe I'm missing something, but right now I don't see one from either side of the chamber.
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