Agree with your points generally, but I believe there's a clause in the rules allowing people to move to escape domestic violence.
-
Our new ticketing site is now live! Using either this or the original site (both powered by TrainSplit) helps support the running of the forum with every ticket purchase! Find out more and ask any questions/give us feedback in this thread!
When will restrictions finally end?
- Thread starter Huntergreed
- Start date
- Status
Agree with your points generally, but I believe there's a clause in the rules allowing people to move to escape domestic violence.
Sponsor Post - registered members do not see these adverts; click here to register, or click here to log in
R
RailUK Forums
ScottGallagher
Member
- Joined
- 9 Dec 2012
- Messages
- 733
I would be very surprised if we see the inside of a pub before the end of May/June , and tiers and restrictions will remain into 2022 until everyone has been vaccinated . Very pessimistic I know and i dont like being in that mindset but the amount of false hope we have been fed for the last year brings me to that conclusion.
I think the point is less about whether people can escape domestic violence which is already happening, and more about whether people who are starting to struggle with being around each other constantly are able to be in different places for a while until tempers cool. Nobody is getting the opportunity to go and stay with a friend for a few days to get their heads in order, and it's unclear that there's a way to easily break up a failing relationship which hasn't escalated to abuse.
Luke McDonnell
On Moderation
- Joined
- 20 Mar 2019
- Messages
- 139
I really hope that is not the case I have been very good at following the restrictions to possibility of it ending by the spring keeps me sane and compliant I do not want to see another year of this there are now rumours that meeting up with anyone outside who is not in your household/support bubble may be banned as well meeting up outside with a friend is important to my mental health and wellbeing considering I have challenges being on the autistic spectrum I fully understand the gravity of the situation I am no covid denier and I know that the NHS is under severe pressure but prohibiting any form of casual human to human contact by law even with one person outside where the risk of transmission is low is a bridge too far IMO especially as I get tested before seeing my friend. There is also talk of banning support bubbles too which if implemented in conjunction with the above will make life miserable for a lot of people especially for people with mental health issues.
The public won't tolerate this. If this were to happen, expect mass demonstrations. You're already seeing low level demonstrations now, but I expect things to really ramp up around late April / early May if we are still seeing hefty restrictions then. The authoritarianism we are seeing now is really annoying a lot of people and Twitter is going crazy about it, so expect things to come to a head in the Spring if the authoritarians are still running the show. Many people will not put up with it; I know I won't!
That would basically mean that those who live alone and don't have "support bubble" would be banned from any contact with anyone apart from work. But this situation probably doesn't affect most of those making such decisions so they wouldn't care - driving a few more people to suicide (which would probably be the outcome) is irrelevant against posturing about Beating The Virus.
== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: ==
Hopefully the over-reaching of police powers which we are seeing at the moment will cause some people to think about what is happening, too.
ScottGallagher
Member
- Joined
- 9 Dec 2012
- Messages
- 733
Sorry Luke if that spooked you, hopefully I'm more wrong than right. I can sympathise to a point. I was the only one in the office during first lockdown for 16 weeks, that was very tough for me mentally.
brad465
Established Member
Agreed, another thing about mass demonstrations being more likely in the spring is the weather will be better and more suitable for such behaviour. The bitter cold this weekend didn't stop some light touch protests happening that made the news, suggesting that adding another few months and some warmer conditions will only add more people to the existing protesting.
bramling
Veteran Member
I was doing some hotel browsing earlier this evening; normally I’d have had all this year’s stuff booked well before now. It was quite interesting to see the various messages on the hotel web pages, and even more so on a couple of hotels who have Facebook pages where there has been the ability for people to leave comments.
Let’s just say it’s clear no one was in the proportion of the population who allegedly support measures. There was a significant amount of bile aimed at Drakeford in particular.
I feel very sorry for hotels. They’ve been pushed from pillar to post, made themselves “Covid secure” (in reality I can’t see a hotel being a massive issue anyway), yet are still closed. Two I know have already closed permanently.
DustyBin
Established Member
We found that many wet-led pubs (or wet-only for that matter) saw an increase in trade. It defies logic but it’s true. That said you make a good point regarding physically small pubs, some have never reopened at all as they’re not viable with any kind of social distancing. We shouldn’t forget about them in all of this. The other thing is there was a definite North-South divide with pubs in the North generally fairing better than those in the South.
Events has been completely decimated, even more so than hospitality. I really feel for those guys.
Agreed. It is one thing I have thought of as I have been with my family throughout lockdown, plus prior. Ordinarily we would all be doing things and be out and about. For me that would be travelling plus also some amateur theatre I am involved with, aside from work. For the last 10 months all of us have spent virtually evening under one roof, arguably not helped by our views on the lockdowns getting further apart. Whilst I am still doing bits remotely (mainly gaming with some other forum members) it’s not quite the same.
Think a fair bit of country will move back to tier 3 status by early April IF vaccine rollout can be as succesful as we all want it to be (no guarentee though with the over promise for targets in last 12 months). Can't see lockdown being lifted mid Feb but it really can't go on much beyond March.
Things are very bleak currently but that was always going to happen during winter regardless of lockdowns as simply more people were going to get sick whatever restrictions.
When you think back to last year deaths and cases starting falling significantly from early June and it was single figures for much of July and August. This was despite a vaccine being a pipe dream and even face masks in shops and public transport was only made mandatory from mid June.
So hopefully with what we have now you can push that sort of timeline forward a month or two and perhaps start of normal ish summer can begin from mid May although mass gathering is still a pipe dream so festivals and public meet ups for euros and Olympics won't be happening.
I can understand the pessimism on false hope and the vaccine won't solve everything but it's better than what we had 9-10 months back and then we need grown up discussion about acceptable number of deaths next winter as Whitty said in the press conference the other day.
Freightmaster
Verified Rep
- Joined
- 7 Jul 2009
- Messages
- 3,879
I've edited my OP now - hope you like it!Xenophone sounds like a cross between the Greek chronicler Xenophon and the musical instrument known as a xylophone....
MARK
Nope what an error. I meant Sophy Ridge!
C J Snarzell
Established Member
- Joined
- 11 Apr 2019
- Messages
- 1,516
Also, riots in mainland England to be kicked off by one incident usually involving the police rocking the apple cart. In this scenario it will probably be when they force their way into someone's home to investigate a breach of lockdown restrictions and the community reacts angrily - enough is enough and people take to the streets in their droves. At this time of year, this probably won't happen but Boris needs to call the restrictions off well before the summer before we see scenes we last saw in 2011.
CJ
Getting cancer treatment especially surgery (some trusts have stopped urgent cancer surgery already) is reliant on having much lower covid hospitalisation numbers which are not going to be easy to achieve though vaccination alone, hence cancer treatment is linked to lowering covid cases via other methods in the shorter term.
I think what is probably happening is that discussions are taking place within the government about how and when we might re-open those parts of the economy that are shut down.
As ever, the locktivists within the government (these people really are a pest, aren't they, and I can't wait to see the back of them) are trying to push the re-opening dates as late as possible, so that discussions are leaked to the press along the lines of "...we cannot begin to lift restrictions until 23rd March, and pubs won't re-open until the bank holiday at the beginning of May..."
In other words, they are trying to present a proposal or an idea as if it were a fact, and that a decision has already been made.
You also get leaks to the press like "..doctors have told Boris Johnson that he can't simply lift restrictions in February once the most vulnerable have been vaccinated." Have they really said that?
In reality, the lifting of restrictions will be done in stages, and will depend entirely on the figures (no. of new cases, % of people vaccinated, current & future pressures on the NHS) at the time. Since no-one knows what the figures will be like in mid February, let alone March or April, no-one can yet give definite dates as to when this or that setting may re-open.
Xenophon PCDGS
Veteran Member
If the RailUK members feel that the need for lockdown as stated by the Government has deliberately been overstated (such as the "Fake News" so often referred to by the "Orange One" across the Atlantic), do these same RailUK members feel surprised that Sir Keir Starmer feels that the lockdown proposals are not strong enough?
(see vaccination thread) Vaccinating the 4 priority groups i.e.70+ (by 3rd week in Feb when they start having to worry about 2nd jabs) will only get you about 25% reduction in ICU admissions based on current levels, which in many parts of the country is still in very big problem territory. The question is possible more which doctors aren't saying that! Prevalence of the new strain locally also has big impact and I don't think Boris has got his head round the impact of the new strain yet.
What is very unlikely are miracles by mid Feb e.g. vaccinating 5m+ a week etc. Hence when you rule out miracles the earliest point for numbers to be suitably better start moving much later.
Intensive care stats and background from last Friday:
The death stats will be massively helped by vaccinating the over 70s, the hospitalisation and ICU admission ones much less so as the average ages are 20 years lower than deaths for those.
No I'm not surprised, for two reasons. Firstly, he's the leader of the opposition and will therefore almost disagree with what the government does. And secondly, all the way through this saga he has advocated tougher rules. He would be even worse as PM than Boris!
You also have to remember the last times, it takes at least 2 weeks to get some level of protection, 2 weeks to see hospital admissions fall and a further 2 weeks to see deaths fall.
If we get 25% of the population vaccinated by the end of February is likely that that it'll be towards the end of April before deaths (from the full 25%) would be falling.
The other factor is that with 1:50 having Covid-19, you don't need to meet many people before you're at risk of infection (although not all get infected).
They will have to designate some hospitals for covid and others for urgent non-covid treatment. Private capacity will also have to be commandeered. Months on months of lockdown is simply not a viable option.
Dr Faucci in the USA has basically admitted that there is no appetite for UK style restrictions over there. One wonders whether our own advisors will have a similar clarity of vision about long term lockdown.
In the longer term, I've come to the conclusion that the NHS will need to be evolved into a European style compulsory insurance system, as it's clear that the Beeching style rationalisation of it over the last two decades partly led to this situation.
Although harsher restrictions may not have required them to have been on place for as long or may have impacted us differently (for instance less overseas travel during the summer would have likely resulted in less imported cases and so lower case numbers, which could avoided some of the most recent lockdowns, which could have meant more pubs and restaurants open over the winter months).
== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: ==
Private hospitals almost didn't exist during the spring and early summer as the NHS had "rented" then out.
I've heard of a case of someone with cancer who couldn't get any appointments to get a diagnosis to have surgery and when they finally did there was no scope for them to have it.
As the NHS is so big it can just mussel in and those with private cover are left high and dry. It's one of the unintended consequences that's been shown up.
It therefore could be argued that Covid-19 actually reduces the attractiveness of private cover.
Last edited:
Given that during the spring and summer, even many non-private hospitals were reportedly quiet, one wonders what was being done with the bought-in private capacity. If things are as dire as they say, this capacity will surely be used this time round.
jumble
Established Member
- Joined
- 1 Jul 2011
- Messages
- 1,278
And the little boy who had read the Emperors new clothes said "Daddy arn't the Police increasing the risk of Covid transmission by engaging with them for no reason if any of them are asymptomatic"
Agreed, plenty of people have been doing the maths and not seeing what Boris is.
In terms of contacts with someone infected 11% with older strain or 15% with new strain result in transmission, (the multiplier is now bigger).
DustyBin
Established Member
Overstated? It’s entirely made up! The whole thing is nothing more than a failed experiment. There’s a reason it’s never been attempted before and why, until the beginning of 2020, lockdowns didn’t feature in our epidemiological thinking. So far we have over 80,000 excess deaths, an economy in tatters and a damaged and deeply divided society. Great result. Those who advocate this madness have only one defence when challenged, i.e. it would have been so much worse without. Where’s the evidence for this (dodgy modelling doesn’t count)?
In regard to Starmer, I’m not sure what his motivation is. He needs to oppose the government but is, for some reason, doing so by arguing for even more draconian restrictions. Maybe he’s completely clueless? Maybe he sees an opportunity to push a socialist agenda in response to the economic fallout? Maybe he wants to appease the ‘zero covid’ lunatics within his own party? Or maybe he’s happy to see the government commit further acts of political self harm? I honestly don’t know what he’s thinking. What is clear though is that the opposition are no more fit for purpose than the government, which is rather worrying to say the least!
I see Scotland's locktivist in chief (yes you've guessed it, Devi Sridhar) is advocating that the current restrictions last for at least 3 months, and that "..restrictions will be needed in the summer to prevent another COVID-19 spike next winter.." as well as "...local one week lockdowns to be imposed when there are virus flare ups...".
Is this woman serious or is she just a joke?
The threat of one week lockdowns being imposed at a moment's notice every time the figures go a little bit in the wrong direction would destroy the Scottish economy, or what is left of it. It would also leave people asking "what on earth is the point of the vaccine if we have to have this sword of Damocles hanging over our heads for the foreseeable future?"
Is this woman serious or is she just a joke?
The threat of one week lockdowns being imposed at a moment's notice every time the figures go a little bit in the wrong direction would destroy the Scottish economy, or what is left of it. It would also leave people asking "what on earth is the point of the vaccine if we have to have this sword of Damocles hanging over our heads for the foreseeable future?"
kristiang85
Established Member
- Joined
- 23 Jan 2018
- Messages
- 2,712
Is she mad? I already think half the mess this winter was caused by too much restrictions in the summer which has just pushed more people who could have used the health service then to do it now.
I have no idea why a scientist like her loves this so much. It makes no sense. Lockdowns should be the absolute exceptional solution, and even then I baulk at it - in fact I think there should be government legislation to ban their use in any future pandemic unless certain metrics are hit (and this bar should be set very high).
She just seems to want them willy nilly with absolutely no thought of the collatoral damage they cause to normal people. But she's an academic, so I'm sure she's OK working from her big house and garden.
Last edited:
- Status