When will restrictions finally end?

[Bantamzen]

The vaccination strategy for the younger adult age groups will depend on what the transmission reduction numbers are for the vaccines. Sensible transmission reduction numbers will see a big push to get large numbers vaccinated to keep overall case, hospitalisation and death numbers low (including in those for whom the vaccine doesn't prevent infection worked). If you leave complete adult age groups unvaccinated e.g. under 40s then there will be continual transmission and plenty of sources to transmit the infection to others who are more vulnerable. You need sensible levels of vaccination in all adults to benefit from herd effects.

And the vast majority of those unvaccinated will not suffer anything worse than a bad cold, whilst those more at risk of more serious aliments will be in a vaccination programme. It seems you are trying to go for an almost zero transmission strategy, which just isn't realistic any more. We cannot afford to wait to get anything near 80% vaccination, so we prioritise the vulnerable and once the first groups are done re-open and expand the offers of vaccinations where and when possible.

 

[RomeoCharlie71]

Hearing rumours that the Government will make an announcement (likely tomorrow) regarding the use of face coverings in workplaces. Unclear whether it will 'just' be guidance or actually put into law.

Been mandatory in Scotland for around 2 months now and it doesn't seem to have made the slightest bit of difference!

 

[Yew]

And the vast majority of those unvaccinated will not suffer anything worse than a bad cold, whilst those more at risk of more serious aliments will be in a vaccination programme. It seems you are trying to go for an almost zero transmission strategy, which just isn't realistic any more. We cannot afford to wait to get anything near 80% vaccination, so we prioritise the vulnerable and once the first groups are done re-open and expand the offers of vaccinations where and when possible.

I think we could go for elimination, but it should be as a nice extra, once we're all back to normal life.

 

[Bantamzen]

I think we could go for elimination, but it should be as a nice extra, once we're all back to normal life.

Elimination is a very long way off, we've only managed that with a total of 2 viruses in medical history. I think we need to set achievable targets.

 

[HLE]

Elimination is a pipe dream. The same with the Spanish flu of 1918. Covid won't be eradicated and is here to stay. Once the pressure is off the ICU beds start unwrapping the restrictions. Outdoor sports first, followed by non essential retail followed by hospitality and stadiums. All still following covid guidance and social distancing to a degree, at least until we have a decent majority of the adult population vaccinated.

What we shouldn't do is wait until early summer to reopen most things.

 

[kristiang85]

Elimination is a very long way off, we've only managed that with a total of 2 viruses in medical history. I think we need to set achievable targets.

And neither of those are respiratory.

I would say there is a next to zero chance this can be eliminated. It will become endemic, and pretty soon most humans will have had enough exposure to it to mean it is a very mild illness for many (though still deadly for an unfortunate few, like many of the 'common cold' viruses are still).

To aim for elimination would be sheer folly, and a complete waste of resources better spent on reducing TB, malaria, dengue, etc. which would make much more of a difference.

 

[hwl]

And the vast majority of those unvaccinated will not suffer anything worse than a bad cold, whilst those more at risk of more serious aliments will be in a vaccination programme. It seems you are trying to go for an almost zero transmission strategy, which just isn't realistic any more. We cannot afford to wait to get anything near 80% vaccination, so we prioritise the vulnerable and once the first groups are done re-open and expand the offers of vaccinations where and when possible.

You are misunderstanding what I'm saying and adding you own interpretation. I'm a data led realist not a lockivist and I thing you might have miscategorised me?
Where did I say anything about waiting to reopen /remove restrictions till 80% vaccinated (which I pointed out is impossible with just adults)?

Elimination won't happen. Near elimination so only low levels is probably were we need to be for a restriction free back to normality in the medium term.

If we remove all restrictions with the just the 4 most vulnerable groups vaccinated then the NHS will still be in a big mess. Getting the NHS back functioning so non covid patents can get care will need plenty of vaccination in younger groups beyond those 4. After school re-opening with when the first 4 vaccination groups are effectively achieved, re-opening up will happen in parallel with vaccination of groups 5+ in line with data.
If you look at Whitty's comments to the BBC yesterday morning it is clear that the government has defined vulnerable just by death rate in the first instance, they aren't looking at hospitalisation or ICU admission yet as the main focus but they soon will do all the experts certainly are hence the numerous notes of caution in the papers over the weekend.

 

[yorksrob]

You are misunderstanding what I'm saying and adding you own interpretation. I'm a data led realist not a lockivist and I thing you might have miscategorised me?
Where did I say anything about waiting to reopen /remove restrictions till 80% vaccinated (which I pointed out is impossible with just adults)?

Elimination won't happen. Near elimination so only low levels is probably were we need to be for a restriction free back to normality in the medium term.

If we remove all restrictions with the just the 4 most vulnerable groups vaccinated then the NHS will still be in a big mess. Getting the NHS back functioning so non covid patents can get care will need plenty of vaccination in younger groups beyond those 4. After school re-opening with when the first 4 vaccination groups are effectively achieved, re-opening up will happen in parallel with vaccination of groups 5+ in line with data.
If you look at Whitty's comments to the BBC yesterday morning it is clear that the government has defined vulnerable just by death rate in the first instance, they aren't looking at hospitalisation or ICU admission yet as the main focus but they soon will do all the experts certainly are hence the numerous notes of caution in the papers over the weekend.

They need to plan for ending lockdown in February. That might not necessarily mean everything opening up then, but our effective imprisonment in our homes needs to end.

Woolly statements about "restrictions" being in place for undefined times aren't any use. We need to know what restrictions will end and when, and not just the children going back to school (which seems to be the only thing the Government are interested in)

 

[Bantamzen]

You are misunderstanding what I'm saying and adding you own interpretation. I'm a data led realist not a lockivist and I thing you might have miscategorised me?
Where did I say anything about waiting to reopen /remove restrictions till 80% vaccinated (which I pointed out is impossible with just adults)?

Elimination won't happen. Near elimination so only low levels is probably were we need to be for a restriction free back to normality in the medium term.

OK I may have misinterpreted your position, apologies.

If we remove all restrictions with the just the 4 most vulnerable groups vaccinated then the NHS will still be in a big mess. Getting the NHS back functioning so non covid patents can get care will need plenty of vaccination in younger groups beyond those 4. After school re-opening with when the first 4 vaccination groups are effectively achieved, re-opening up will happen in parallel with vaccination of groups 5+ in line with data.
If you look at Whitty's comments to the BBC yesterday morning it is clear that the government has defined vulnerable just by death rate in the first instance, they aren't looking at hospitalisation or ICU admission yet as the main focus but they soon will do all the experts certainly are hence the numerous notes of caution in the papers over the weekend.

The picture with ICUs might well be far more complicated than the press briefings & ONS data offer us. For a start there is a vast backlog of operations & procedures that will be contributing, I'm sure I read somewhere that in some areas as many as 50% of the admissions recorded "with covid" also had chronic heart disease, so how many of those people ended up in ICU due to a lack of previous consultations? And I'm sure there will be many other ailments that have been made worse due to deferrals.

My wife has personal experience of such deferrals when she had a cancer scare the early part of last year. It took literally months for her to be able to get a biopsy for what her doctor was concerned was uterus cancer. Thankfully once the results came back in she was clear, but the delay could have resulted in serious consequences. Sadly I know of other people who have not been so lucky.

Once we have the most vulnerable protected, the resources needed to keep them safe can be used to look after those in the groups below as well as work through the massive backlog of cases, which I believe a few months ago was at 5.4 million and growing. The rest of us need to get back helping to fund all this.

 

[hwl]

OK I may have misinterpreted your position, apologies.


The picture with ICUs might well be far more complicated than the press briefings & ONS data offer us. For a start there is a vast backlog of operations & procedures that will be contributing, I'm sure I read somewhere that in some areas as many as 50% of the admissions recorded "with covid" also had chronic heart disease, so how many of those people ended up in ICU due to a lack of previous consultations? And I'm sure there will be many other ailments that have been made worse due to deferrals.

My wife has personal experience of such deferrals when she had a cancer scare the early part of last year. It took literally months for her to be able to get a biopsy for what her doctor was concerned was uterus cancer. Thankfully once the results came back in she was clear, but the delay could have resulted in serious consequences. Sadly I know of other people who have not been so lucky.

Once we have the most vulnerable protected, the resources needed to keep them safe can be used to look after those in the groups below as well as work through the massive backlog of cases, which I believe a few months ago was at 5.4 million and growing. The rest of us need to get back helping to fund all this.

The ICNARC (Intensive Care National Audit and Research Centre) have a covid report that is updated weekly with stats and analysis
Last Friday's (weekly) ICU covid stats:

https://www.icnarc.org/DataServices/Attachments/Download/326bbfc2-d851-eb11-912d-00505601089b

The picture is bad just looking at Covid ( e.g. when you ignore the backlog which is just building up in reality as they are deferring as much as possible)

Quite a number admitted to ICU are in groups 8 or 9 (i.e. under 60 and healthy) or not in a phase 1 vaccination groups (i.e. under 50 and healthy) and there is no quick solution to this.

The stats for covid being passed around in hospital (not in that report but PHE do look at it) aren't good either which has major effect on hospital ability to operate efficiently unless community levels are reduced. (e.g. they don't want this happening - former neighbour went in to hospital in November with broken hip and had a hip replacement, came out with Covid and died several weeks later).

The government are looking at deaths as the main target for the time being (Whitty Monday morning confirming) and when those numbers start to improve they will start worrying about the next problems. It will be a slog for quite a while unfortunately. The surprise good news bonus will be transmission reduction rate becoming known which is as yet unquantified.

 

[Watershed]

Been mandatory in Scotland for around 2 months now and it doesn't seem to have made the slightest bit of difference!

It does make a difference - it's a pointless box-ticking nuisance!

 

[Reliablebeam]

Been mandatory in Scotland for around 2 months now and it doesn't seem to have made the slightest bit of difference!

My workplace (very much in England) followed the Scottish approach when it was introduced, to keep consistency across the different labs, as we have a site in Edinburgh. I was under the impression a lot of employers round here had followed a similar approach. What difference it makes is debateable, wound some of us up, but seemed to be 'comforting' for some of the more nervous. I guess you could argue it might discourage people from casually popping in if they don't really need to - though my cynical nature suggests to me this falls into 'seen to be doing something'.

 

[Crossover]

Been mandatory in Scotland for around 2 months now and it doesn't seem to have made the slightest bit of difference!

Out of interest, what are the "rules" behind it?

I'm in England and my workplace have mandated masks in the office. They only need to be worn when transiting the office and can be removed when at ones desk. Some of my colleagues have a visor in place of a mask

 

[duncanp]

Been mandatory in Scotland for around 2 months now and it doesn't seem to have made the slightest bit of difference!

Well, if has been completely ineffective in Scotland that means that it is almost certainly going to be introduced in England.

After the government has got to do something to take attention away from Boris Johnson flexing the rules by going for a bike ride 7 miles from home, whilst other people have been fined for sitting on a park bench.

Perhaps I will wake up tomorrow, and the past 10 months has all been a bad dream.

 

[RomeoCharlie71]

Out of interest, what are the "rules" behind it?

I'm in England and my workplace have mandated masks in the office. They only need to be worn when transiting the office and can be removed when at ones desk. Some of my colleagues have a visor in place of a mask

As I understand it, it is mandatory in communal areas such as canteens and corridors and they can only be removed to eat or drink.

Might be worth adding that visors aren't permitted by law in Scotland.

 

[Watershed]

Out of interest, what are the "rules" behind it?

It's probably a cautious interpretation of paragraph 8(1)(b)(vi) of Schedule 5 of the Health Protection (Coronavirus) (Restrictions and Requirements) (Local Levels) (Scotland) Regulations 2020. Similarly, paragraph 9(1) requires people in charge of a place of work to "have regard to" the Scottish Government's guidance (i.e. suggesting that any recommendations therein are given legal force).

However, paragraph 9(3) contradicts the above because it makes clear that paragraph 9(1) cannot be enforced. Indeed, Regulation 5 excludes a breach of paragraphs 8(1)(b) or 9 of the Schedule from being a criminal offence.

Rather pointless having legislation setting out a duty which is explicitly unenforceable but there you go!

 

[Reliablebeam]

As I understand it, it is mandatory in communal areas such as canteens and corridors and they can only be removed to eat or drink.

Might be worth adding that visors aren't permitted by law in Scotland.

This is similar to what we implemented, 'communal' areas as you describe. For our purposes this also included laboratories and instrumentation rooms* you might work with others in. Office spaces vary at my place depending on the type of ventilation installed although most of our offices are classed as single occupancy during the 'emergency'.

*mask wearing in places you might come across chemical or radiological hazards is of course an issue in itself, but, you know, seen to be doing something...

 

[Crossover]

As I understand it, it is mandatory in communal areas such as canteens and corridors and they can only be removed to eat or drink.

Might be worth adding that visors aren't permitted by law in Scotland.

Thanks. Wearing one when transiting the building is annoying but not the end of the world. I would be somewhat less happy if mandated to wear one when seated and working, too (for one thing, I usually can't see a thing as my glasses steam up!)

 

[Bantamzen]

The ICNARC (Intensive Care National Audit and Research Centre) have a covid report that is updated weekly with stats and analysis
Last Friday's (weekly) ICU covid stats:

https://www.icnarc.org/DataServices/Attachments/Download/326bbfc2-d851-eb11-912d-00505601089b

The picture is bad just looking at Covid ( e.g. when you ignore the backlog which is just building up in reality as they are deferring as much as possible)

Quite a number admitted to ICU are in groups 8 or 9 (i.e. under 60 and healthy) or not in a phase 1 vaccination groups (i.e. under 50 and healthy) and there is no quick solution to this.

The stats for covid being passed around in hospital (not in that report but PHE do look at it) aren't good either which has major effect on hospital ability to operate efficiently unless community levels are reduced. (e.g. they don't want this happening - former neighbour went in to hospital in November with broken hip and had a hip replacement, came out with Covid and died several weeks later).

The government are looking at deaths as the main target for the time being (Whitty Monday morning confirming) and when those numbers start to improve they will start worrying about the next problems. It will be a slog for quite a while unfortunately. The surprise good news bonus will be transmission reduction rate becoming known which is as yet unquantified.

Two things stood right out for me from those graphs. Firstly whenever covid related admissions surge, other types seem to decrease. This was particularly notable in April 2020, but is reflected later on in the year. The other notable point was how deprivation seems to pay a big part in admissions, along with age (which was widely known). I think there's a lot this data isn't telling us, and that a much deeper dive into the data is needed.

 

[takno]

Two things stood right out for me from those graphs. Firstly whenever covid related admissions surge, other types seem to decrease. This was particularly notable in April 2020, but is reflected later on in the year. The other notable point was how deprivation seems to pay a big part in admissions, along with age (which was widely known). I think there's a lot this data isn't telling us, and that a much deeper dive into the data is needed.

I did initially think the deprivation data was interesting, but then I got the deprivation index by age figures for England. On the face of it I'd say the high deprivation numbers are more or less being driven by the high incidence of retired people.

 

[Cdd89]

It appears that in other places politicians are formally recognising that we can’t wait for full or even significant vaccination before beginning to ease restrictions.

See the below tweet from NYC’s Cuomo:

https://twitter.com/nygovcuomo/status/1348673192609591296?s=21

We simply cannot stay closed until the vaccine hits critical mass. The cost is too high. We will have nothing left to open. We must reopen the economy, but we must do it smartly and safely.

#SOTS2021

Worth noting that he was formerly of the “if it saves one life” view. The Twitter responses are evenly split between those attacking him for changing his viewpoint and “copying Trump”, and those calling him a mass murderer.

Personally I don’t believe in attacking people for changing their minds in the right direction, and hopefully the more politicians and cities adopt this view the more pressure U.K. politicians will be under to reopen.

 

[Butts]

As I understand it, it is mandatory in communal areas such as canteens and corridors and they can only be removed to eat or drink.

Might be worth adding that visors aren't permitted by law in Scotland.

This applies where I work, but at Night you can get away with it as there is hardly anyone in the building.

 

[island]

I'm in England and my workplace have mandated masks in the office. They only need to be worn when transiting the office and can be removed when at ones desk. Some of my colleagues have a visor in place of a mask

Senior management at my workplace were discussing bringing in a similar rule today. As I am a member of senior management, I made a strong case against it, and it’s been kicked into the long grass.

 

[kez19]

I'll add this here:

UK ‘to trial’ Covid-19 vaccine passports with new app - City AM

The UK is starting trials of a vaccine passport that could play a key role in efforts to inoculate the population against coronavirus.

www.cityam.com

The passport will take the form of a free app developed by biometrics firm iProov and cybersecurity firm Mvine.


Innovate UK, the government body in charge of funding technology and innovation, has poured £75,000 into the project as part of a £40m startup investment programme launched last year.


The trial will be overseen by two directors of public health in local authorities, though the locations are yet to be confirmed, according to the report. It will be completed in March.


The government hopes the trial will show how digital passports could be used to keep track of how many Brits have received their first and second dose of the Covid-19 vaccine.


If successful, it could be rolled out to millions across the UK and play a role in the easing of lockdown measures.

and...

The government has issued conflicting statements over the use of vaccine passports in the UK.


Cabinet minister Michael Gove last month said there were no plans to use vaccine passports to allow people to return to hospitality venues such as pubs and restaurants.


But health minister Nadhim Zahawi said the government was “looking at the technology”, adding that it could be used by venues in a similar way to the test and trace app.


Vaccine passports could also provide a fillip to the struggling travel industry, with many airlines already developing their own health certification programmes.

Daily Mail: https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/ar...-offered-vaccine-passport-trial.html#comments


So at a guess it was a no (or not to believed) but it seems now its a yes, i'll go fetch my tinfoil coat and hat now. (if in wrong thread apologies)

 

[takno]

I'll add this here:

UK ‘to trial’ Covid-19 vaccine passports with new app - City AM

The UK is starting trials of a vaccine passport that could play a key role in efforts to inoculate the population against coronavirus.

www.cityam.com

and...



So at a guess it was a no (or not to believed) but it seems now its a yes, i'll go fetch my tinfoil coat and hat now. (if in wrong thread apologies)

They always send Gove out to deny things they are about to do. He can do it with a straight face because nobody ever tells him anything. Handily this will also involve the creation of a de-facto ID card on your phone to deal with those pesky people who don't carry a passport or driving license. Probably deserves its own thread tbh

 

[birchesgreen]

I'll happily install the app tonight if i get the vaccine at the same time.

 

[yorksrob]

I will be extremely angry if I'm denied access to the pub because they haven't got around to vaccinating me yet.

 

[kez19]

I'll happily install the app tonight if i get the vaccine at the same time.

I already had my first one couple weeks back but nothing was mentioned - question is for me is this a UK wide app or are we going the whole Scotland/England app style as to me this will be useless!

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 12 Jan 2021 ==

They always send Gove out to deny things they are about to do. He can do it with a straight face because nobody ever tells him anything. Handily this will also involve the creation of a de-facto ID card on your phone to deal with those pesky people who don't carry a passport or driving license. Probably deserves its own thread tbh

Could always say it they flip flopping more than you do with burgers at McDonalds!

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 12 Jan 2021 ==

I will be extremely angry if I'm denied access to the pub because they haven't got around to vaccinating me yet.

Thats the thing I agree with on this and there shouldn't be anyone denied access to areas even without vaccination.

 

[Scotrail12]

COVID passports would be political suicide if not all demographics have been offered the vaccine. That surely would be a court case for age discrimination?

Aside - I can't see who would support it.

 

[yorksrob]

Thats the thing I agree with on this and there shouldn't be anyone denied access to areas even without vaccination.

Quite apart from anything else, some people might not medically be able to have the vaccine.