When will restrictions finally end?

[liam456]

If they're smartphone based as suggested in the article, I am definitely going to investigate 'cracked' apps e.t.c. to get around it all

 

[Richard Scott]

Quite apart from anything else, some people might not medically be able to have the vaccine.

Someone at work said that her son, who works in medicine, wasn't allowed to have it as he's had an anaphylactic reaction in the past. He offered to sign a disclaimer bit still told no.

 

[Yew]

It will be a slog for quite a while unfortunately.

I thought it was going to be 12 weeks to turn the tide, and significant normality by November?

This has already gone on for far too long, a significant and rapid return to normality once the most vulnerable have been vaccinated is non-optional.

 

[Dave91131]

As with anything "app" related, what about those who don't possess any "app-capable" phones or other devices?

 

[kez19]

Quite apart from anything else, some people might not medically be able to have the vaccine.

agree going wrong way around it for me.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 12 Jan 2021 ==

As with anything "app" related, what about those who don't possess any "app-capable" phones or other devices?

I be surprised they'll roll out the excuse... get the latest update/software/phone to join.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 12 Jan 2021 ==

COVID passports would be political suicide if not all demographics have been offered the vaccine. That surely would be a court case for age discrimination?

Aside - I can't see who would support it.

You know whats coming though for us in Scotland, we'll be told to get a separate app to use to be apart from the UK (which even for me could see that backfiring on Sturgeon as if I was to install it I would rather have a UK app)

As for supporting the app - rolls out all the politicians/SAGE/media....

 

[hwl]

Quite apart from anything else, some people might not medically be able to have the vaccine.

The initial estimate for that was 1.5m adults* which there were hoping to whittle down.

*That also leaves a large number of people at much higher risk in the future...

 

[Crossover]

Senior management at my workplace were discussing bringing in a similar rule today. As I am a member of senior management, I made a strong case against it, and it’s been kicked into the long grass.

Well, that certainly sounds like progress in your workplace!

 

[yorksrob]

The initial estimate for that was 1.5m adults* which there were hoping to whittle down.

*That also leaves a large number of people at much higher risk in the future...

And presumably not allowed to go anywhere, if reliant on a vaccine passport !

 

[hwl]

a significant and rapid return to normality once the most vulnerable have been vaccinated is non-optional.

What happens if the ambulances are still queuing outside hospitals at that point?

At that point you will find it is very very optional however much you dislike. Saying it is "non optional" will not change how the health service is coping. Boris has already said it will be a tapered return not a rapid one. While I'd like to see all the restrictions gone I'm open minded and pragmatic enough to realise that isn't going to happen in a slow tapered manner.

The government has focused initially on the "vulnerable" as being 70+ to initially reduce death rates in 4-5 weeks time the death stats will have improved but hospital ones most probably won't and reality will have caught up with the government again

 

[Yew]

And presumably not allowed to go anywhere, if reliant on a vaccine passport !

I fear they'll try and weaponize this, to keep restrictions until everyone who can be is vaccinated.

 

[HSTEd]

What happens if the ambulances are still queuing outside hospitals at that point?

The ambulances continue to queue?

The health service being under severe strain has no impact on the vast majority of people's lives.

When only dozens of people are dying per day instead of hundreds the political capital necessary to sustain the lockdown will simply not exist.

The NHS is always under severe strain, it has no impact on the public.
Indeed waiting for it not to be means waiting forever - as Whitty let slip in his press conference before he desperately tried to row it back.

EDIT:

At a sustainable rate of 1 million + people processed per week (2m doses per week) - the age of the vaccinated will fall by about a year a week - intensive care admissions will start going off a cliff pretty soon after the most vulnerable are finished.

 

[Solent&Wessex]

What happens if the ambulances are still queuing outside hospitals at that point?

At that point you will find it is very very optional however much you dislike. Saying it is "non optional" will not change how the health service is coping. Boris has already said it will be a tapered return not a rapid one. While I'd like to see all the restrictions gone I'm open minded and pragmatic enough to realise that isn't going to happen in a slow tapered manner.

The government has focused initially on the "vulnerable" as being 70+ to initially reduce death rates in 4-5 weeks time the death stats will have improved but hospital ones most probably won't and reality will have caught up with the government again

So what do we do? Stay in lockdown like this till the Autumn when younger age groups are vaccinated, with perhaps a brief respite for a week or two in the height of summer if we are good and the weather is nice?

 

[Bertie the bus]

The government has focused initially on the "vulnerable" as being 70+ to initially reduce death rates in 4-5 weeks time the death stats will have improved but hospital ones most probably won't and reality will have caught up with the government again

That makes no sense at all. Are you saying people who die and people who are admitted to hospital are two distinct, separate groups? Excluding those who die in care homes the people who are dying with COVID are nearly all dying in hospital, which means they were admitted to hospital. Therefore both will reduce, in fact if the usual pattern repeats itself, which it almost certainly will, hospitalisations will reduce first.

 

[Gadget88]

Britons who have received Covid jab 'will be offered vaccine passport'

Though the Department of Health said there were 'no plans' to introduce vaccine passports, its science and research funding agency has already pumped £75,000 into the project.

www.dailymail.co.uk

Thousands of Britons who have already received their coronavirus jab will be offered a vaccine passport in a trial taking place this month after ministers flip-flopped over the controversial policy.


The passport, created by biometrics firm iProov and cybersecurity firm Mvine, will be issued as a free app and will allow users to prove digitally if they have had their first or second jab - or no jab at all.

Here we go again wonder the over 80’s will feel about showing a smart phone?

 

[Yew]

Britons who have received Covid jab 'will be offered vaccine passport'

Though the Department of Health said there were 'no plans' to introduce vaccine passports, its science and research funding agency has already pumped £75,000 into the project.

www.dailymail.co.uk

Here we go again wonder the over 80’s will feel about showing a smart phone?

We can't let this happen especially whilst the distribution is being limited to certain groups by the government.

 

[HSTEd]

Britons who have received Covid jab 'will be offered vaccine passport'

Though the Department of Health said there were 'no plans' to introduce vaccine passports, its science and research funding agency has already pumped £75,000 into the project.

www.dailymail.co.uk

Here we go again wonder the over 80’s will feel about showing a smart phone?

Well given that it will allow them to do whatever they want whilst the feckless young are under house arrest, probably quite happy.

That makes no sense at all. Are you saying people who die and people who are admitted to hospital are two distinct, separate groups? Excluding those who die in care homes the people who are dying with COVID are nearly all dying in hospital, which means they were admitted to hospital. Therefore both will reduce, in fact if the usual pattern repeats itself, which it almost certainly will, hospitalisations will reduce first.

Yes, because people who die tend to be older and die quickly so consume negligible hospital resources. It may be sufficiently hopeless that they are triaged out of escalation to more intensive care.

Median ICU admission age is 63, whilst median death age is north of 80

 

[Bertie the bus]

Median age is meaningless. What is important are numbers and nearly 1/4 of patients admitted to hospital with COVID in England are over 85. Also on average a survivor only occupies a hospital bed for 3 1/2 days more than someone who dies.

 

[WelshBluebird]

The health service being under severe strain has no impact on the vast majority of people's lives.

I don't know what the answer is, but whilst that statement is technically probably true, it vastly underlays the effect on the people who need hospitalisation because of non covid reasons. That is the main problem with hospital capacity with covid really and would risk the lives of a lot more people who generally aren't that much at risk of covid itself.

 

[HSTEd]

I don't know what the answer is, but whilst that statement is technically probably true, it vastly underlays the effect on the people who need hospitalisation because of non covid reasons. That is the main problem with hospital capacity with covid really and would risk the lives of a lot more people who generally aren't that much at risk of covid itself.

At the rate the virus is burning through the population it will start to run out of people to infect in the next 3-4 months. Parts of London appear to be almost burned out as it is.

SAGE already ordered the de-facto shutdown of most of the health servicef or a period of months in the Summer whilst hospitals sat empty.
Those deaths were tolerable then, they apparently aren't now for some reason?

(6% showing positive in Barking! That implies a burn rate of ~0.5% per day given a positive time of ~14 days and R~1!)

 

[NorthOxonian]

Britons who have received Covid jab 'will be offered vaccine passport'

Though the Department of Health said there were 'no plans' to introduce vaccine passports, its science and research funding agency has already pumped £75,000 into the project.

www.dailymail.co.uk

Here we go again wonder the over 80’s will feel about showing a smart phone?

It should be said that Nadhim Zahawi has categorically denied that the government has plans to introduce a vaccine passport. Obviously they could do a U turn, but it does allay some of my fears.

 

[Watershed]

Someone at work said that her son, who works in medicine, wasn't allowed to have it as he's had an anaphylactic reaction in the past. He offered to sign a disclaimer bit still told no.

Those who cannot receive the vaccine will fall into exactly the same category as those who cannot wear a face covering. The rules might similarly say they shouldn't be discriminated against, but the majority of people and businesses will nevertheless openly do so.

Some will say anyone unvaccinated should stay at home as it is too risky for them, and becoming infected could overload the NHS.

(Other tenuous arguments are available.)

It should be said that Nadhim Zahawi has categorically denied that the government has plans to introduce a vaccine passport. Obviously they could do a U turn, but it does allay some of my fears.

It's no different to when a PM says that a Minister has his "full confidence"!

 

[bramling]

hwl, I feel like you're thinking in longer timescales than we are?

I really think there’s going to be a problem dialling back, because of the narrative that’s being pushed hard at the moment (once again whilst on the railway this evening I heard plenty of the creepy “Coronavirus is a national emergency, deadly for people of all ages...” announcement.)

How on earth they reconcile that with under 65s not getting the vaccine for ages, goodness knows.

 

[Scotrail12]

We can't let this happen especially whilst the distribution is being limited to certain groups by the government.

Exactly! Wrong on every level, anyone with a dose of sanity could see that it would be age discrimination. I have a feeling that this would be a breaking point for many and things could get ugly if the government actually tried it. It actually makes no logistical sense and I can't even see some of the locktivists backing this.

 

[bramling]

Exactly! Wrong on every level, anyone with a dose of sanity could see that it would be age discrimination. I have a feeling that this would be a breaking point for many and things could get ugly if the government actually tried it. It actually makes no logistical sense and I can't even see some of the locktivists backing this.

I’ve always thought that vaccinated=unrestricted=elderly versus unvaccinated=restricted=young would be utterly incendiary.

Surely no government would be daft enough to even consider that, but this current one seems keen to outsurpass itself in the incompetence department, so quite a likely scenario!

 

[HSTEd]

Surely no government would be daft enough to even consider that, but this current one seems keen to outsurpass itself in the incompetence department, so quite a likely scenario!

It's not as if the government would be punished at the ballot box, and the recent behaviour of the police has not disabused me of the notion that, with no football fans to vent their frustrations on, they are chomping at the bit for a chance to crack some skulls.

 

[bramling]

It's not as if the government would be punished at the ballot box, and the recent behaviour of the police has not disabused me of the notion that, with no football fans to vent their frustrations on, they are chomping at the bit for a chance to crack some skulls.

It’s one thing for the police to have a brawl with football fans, however it’s quite another if a large segment of the population simply decides they’re going to ignore restrictions in a more subtle way. There simply aren’t enough police to take that on, just like there aren’t enough police to have a mask inspector on every train, or as seems to be this week’s fad in every supermarket aisle!

To some extent we’re already seeing elements of the gradual breakdown.

 

[HSTEd]

It’s one thing for the police to have a brawl with football fans, however it’s quite another if a large segment of the population simply decides they’re going to ignore restrictions.

To some extent we’re already seeing elements of the latter.

Well if they do, then it will pick up again, 20-30,000 people will die and that will be that.

 

[Gadget88]

It should be said that Nadhim Zahawi has categorically denied that the government has plans to introduce a vaccine passport. Obviously they could do a U turn, but it does allay some of my fears.

So you don’t see it happening then? Vaccine passports would make it all but compulsory. My auntie had the vaccine and she’s been unwell for a a bit due to it so I hope it’s choice based not forced

 

[yorkie]

If the RailUK members feel that the need for lockdown as stated by the Government has deliberately been overstated (such as the "Fake News" so often referred to by the "Orange One" across the Atlantic), do these same RailUK members feel surprised that Sir Keir Starmer feels that the lockdown proposals are not strong enough?

If the posh parts of Cheshire residents feel that the need for lockdown as stated by the Government has been understated (such as the "500k deaths" so often referred to by Professor Pants down), do these same Cheshire residents feel surprised that others feel the lockdown proposals were too strong?

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 13 Jan 2021 ==

So you don’t see it happening then? Vaccine passports would make it all but compulsory. My auntie had the vaccine and she’s been unwell for a a bit due to it so I hope it’s choice based not forced

It really depends on what other countries do. Without a vaccine passport, some countries are going to mandate tests either before departure, or upon arrival, or both.

 

[Gadget88]

If the posh parts of Cheshire residents feel that the need for lockdown as stated by the Government has been understated (such as the "500k deaths" so often referred to by Professor Pants down), do these same Cheshire residents feel surprised that others feel the lockdown proposals were too strong?

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 13 Jan 2021 ==


It really depends on what other countries do. Without a vaccine passport, some countries are going to mandate tests either before departure, or upon arrival, or both.

Perhaps testing will be a second option to the passport for most countries? But surely testing had to be better than tents and areas of stations for it. I read cruise ships will offer rapid saliva tests which would mean they could test frequently. But we have heard how these rapid flow tests have not worked well it may be better testing is still a long way off. But a test you can buy in say in boots and test Yourself in holiday would be a game changer.