Why are people opposed to HS2? (And other HS2 discussion)

[jfowkes]

This is approaching the levels of a conspiracy theory. Disbelieving the experts, disbelieving the timetable, but thinking that youtube videos and an hour standing on a platform will give you stunning insight into how the WCML can be planned.

 

[AM9]

This is approaching the levels of a conspiracy theory. Disbelieving the experts, disbelieving the timetable, but thinking that youtube videos and an hour standing on a platform will give you stunning insight into how the WCML can be planned.

That's fine, let them run with it. They can identify the services with 'massive' gaps before and/or behind them, then explain what happens when they get to the end of these pockets of capacity. It should be interesting how useful a revolutionalry crowdbuster service is when it has a flight of 390s behind and it can't cross to the slows at Ledburn or Bourne End because of a stream of freight workings interspersed with the odd Tring stopper or Southern aiming for the WLL.
I can almost guarantee that the posters coming out with these will claims won't even post anything of substance on the matter, - they'll just keep playing the broken record ad nauseum.

 

[PeterC]

It’s fair to say that a very small proportion of the people with antipathy towards the project ever use the WCML. Just read the petitions to Parliament.

I was referring to a specific post on THIS FORUM which had attracted abuse not to the petitions as should have been obvious. I think that the comments that attracted the abuse were wrong but that they are indicative of reasons for opposition to the project.

 

[yoyothehobo]

I suggest the best way to timetable it would be to run every single train on the network into Euston at the morning peak and vice versa in the evening peak therefore you can have 4 down lines and 4 up lines when you require,

No one wants to travel against the flow so this shall be discouraged by removing all non compliant services in the peak.

 

[liam456]

I suggest the best way to timetable it would be to run every single train on the network into Euston at the morning peak and vice versa in the evening peak therefore you can have 4 down lines and 4 up lines when you require,

No one wants to travel against the flow so this shall be discouraged by removing all non compliant services in the peak.

And how will those train arriving at Euston get back to their depots? (or anywhere else on the network)
Is this actually a serious suggestion? 4 ups and 4 down in the respective peaks?

If arguments against HS2 descend to this, then what more compelling proof is there that it's needed? /semi-sarcasm

 

[yoyothehobo]

Well considering some peoples consider that constructing 2 new parallel lines, next to an operational WCML as a reasonable proposal, i think that mine is a relatively sane idea.

 

[ChiefPlanner]

I suggest the best way to timetable it would be to run every single train on the network into Euston at the morning peak and vice versa in the evening peak therefore you can have 4 down lines and 4 up lines when you require,

No one wants to travel against the flow so this shall be discouraged by removing all non compliant services in the peak.

A rather cerebral university academic suggested this for cracking the Waterloo capacity issues a few year ago , along with seatless carriages , and even better - "slip" working at places like Surbiton for the evening peak when portions could be detached at speed from the main train.

Nearly as bad as the Thatcherite era when a senior advisor suggested converting the Neasden - Marylebone rout into an express busway , ditto Stratford East to Liverpool Street. How we laughed.

 

[Railwaysceptic]

YouTube videos of a single location at a time are of course a well-known tool of choice for the professional operational planner in identifying spare paths. <\sarcasm>

I wasn't aware that I was responding to a railway professional.

 

[Railwaysceptic]

This is approaching the levels of a conspiracy theory. Disbelieving the experts, disbelieving the timetable, but thinking that youtube videos and an hour standing on a platform will give you stunning insight into how the WCML can be planned.

I haven't volunteered to plan the WCML timetable nor have I suggested that I am capable of making a worthwhile contribution. I have merely decided to use my powers of observation and deduction. Obviously those who believe everything they are told by supposed experts will never need to think for themselves.

 

[Esker-pades]

I haven't volunteered to plan the WCML timetable nor have I suggested that I am capable of making a worthwhile contribution. I have merely decided to use my powers of observation and deduction. Obviously those who believe everything they are told by supposed experts will never need to think for themselves.

"supposed experts" - How's everything going Mr. Gove?

Clearly, you think there are additional paths at the peak time. As every single timetabler and planner has said that there aren't, if you can find some additional paths, I think you'd get a knighthood.

Saying "you've all got it wrong", but not offering any solutions is utterly, utterly pointless.

 

[Ianno87]

I haven't volunteered to plan the WCML timetable nor have I suggested that I am capable of making a worthwhile contribution. I have merely decided to use my powers of observation and deduction. Obviously those who believe everything they are told by supposed experts will never need to think for themselves.

"Supposed experts". You can't state possibly justify such a statement unless you can *prove* they are wrong. Simply saying they are wrong, with no justification (aside from observing passing trains out of a window), doesn't fly.

 

[ChiefPlanner]

If this long discussion has proven anything , it is that the WCML (particularly south of Rugby) , but also Crewe - Weaver Junction , and probably Preston to Carlisle is an absolute challenge to timetable. Apologies maybe for some gritty replies from those who have done real work on this critical section , - but it really is a deep challenge, and options for squeezing more into the route is very far from easy. It just gets busier and busier.

Two comments....

(a) A couple of 4 car workings into Euston around 0930-ish , is because by then you have run out of units - most 8 / 12 car sets are at the London end - with no time to run out and do another journey. This was often compensated by getting some Watford Junction peak "bouncebacks" - giving some relief to the still busy inwards flows. Making the terminating bay a 12 car (as has happened) helps. Part of the peak problem is getting rid of high peak rolling stock. (in one 1998 timetable , we were so desperate , we considered a 6 car 313 to help out - not a good idea frankly)

(b) I took an affable "La Vie du Rail" journalist for a cab ride on a 350 from Euston - visit to Rugby SCC - and a ride back on a 390. He was amazed when you had all 4 tracks occupied at several moments - a 390 hammering down the up and down fast lines , us on the down slow -and a string of Freightliners on the up slow , mixed with "suburban" services. His comments were "France is not like this" - but he lived in Lille and was used to the HS links to and from Paris , where he commuted every day" - opened his eyes for sure , and he wrote a great article.

A very nice touch was that RY SCC had a fluent French speaker (of that origin) , and they made sure he was on duty for that visit , so he could discuss in detail what the issues were.

 

[The Ham]

"Supposed experts". You can't state possibly justify such a statement unless you can *prove* they are wrong. Simply saying they are wrong, with no justification (aside from observing passing trains out of a window), doesn't fly.

Indeed, I'm no expert, so I'll do some maths.

In metro services (like London Underground) you struggle to get 24tph on a single line. That's a train every 150 seconds (2 minutes 30 seconds)

However that's on trains traveling at ~50mph. As such you need to increase the spacing between them.

For cars stopping distances for 30mph are 90m, yet when you double the speed the stopping distance 215m (more than doubling), as such you can't maintain frequencies as you need more space between the vehicles.

The same is true of any vehicle, including trains.

That means that chances are you'd be looking at 180 seconds. That's as train every three minutes.

Compare that to a road with 500 cars in an hour (which is fairly busy, but still with a fair amount of capacity) and it's a car every 7 seconds (some busy roads can have a car every 4 second).

As such by my reckoning 24tph is not achievable, 20tph could be achieved of there was no conflicts (such as junctions or different speeds of trains) otherwise you're probably looking at less than this. I don't recall what the frequencies on the West Coast Mainline is, but if it's about 10tph then there's probably not a whole lot more capacity left.

 

[ChiefPlanner]

Indeed, I'm no expert, so I'll do some maths.

In metro services (like London Underground) you struggle to get 24tph on a single line. That's a train every 150 seconds (2 minutes 30 seconds)

However that's on trains traveling at ~50mph. As such you need to increase the spacing between them.

For cars stopping distances for 30mph are 90m, yet when you double the speed the stopping distance 215m (more than doubling), as such you can't maintain frequencies as you need more space between the vehicles.

The same is true of any vehicle, including trains.

That means that chances are you'd be looking at 180 seconds. That's as train every three minutes.

Compare that to a road with 500 cars in an hour (which is fairly busy, but still with a fair amount of capacity) and it's a car every 7 seconds (some busy roads can have a car every 4 second).

As such by my reckoning 24tph is not achievable, 20tph could be achieved of there was no conflicts (such as junctions or different speeds of trains) otherwise you're probably looking at less than this. I don't recall what the frequencies on the West Coast Mainline is, but if it's about 10tph then there's probably not a whole lot more capacity left.

Agreed - proper Urban metro operation can get you to the levels of the Jubilee / Victoria lines at present . Everything all stations and a maximum speed of 45 mph or less. Tough enough to operate with even the slightest perturbation.

A mixed traffic railway is far more challenging (and the WCML is probably in the highest World category here) - so utterly complicated. Hence the HS2 concept , as opposed to some people who thought the digital railway was an even better idea than Jack and his magic beans.

Anyway , in passing - the GER managed 24 tph into Liverpool St around 1910 , mechanical signalling , steam haulage etc etc - but it was a segregated operation , and the London Underground managed close to 36 tph in the 1920's. Have we moved on

 

[Esker-pades]

Indeed, I'm no expert, so I'll do some maths.

In metro services (like London Underground) you struggle to get 24tph on a single line. That's a train every 150 seconds (2 minutes 30 seconds)

However that's on trains traveling at ~50mph. As such you need to increase the spacing between them.

For cars stopping distances for 30mph are 90m, yet when you double the speed the stopping distance 215m (more than doubling), as such you can't maintain frequencies as you need more space between the vehicles.

The same is true of any vehicle, including trains.

That means that chances are you'd be looking at 180 seconds. That's as train every three minutes.

Compare that to a road with 500 cars in an hour (which is fairly busy, but still with a fair amount of capacity) and it's a car every 7 seconds (some busy roads can have a car every 4 second).

As such by my reckoning 24tph is not achievable, 20tph could be achieved of there was no conflicts (such as junctions or different speeds of trains) otherwise you're probably looking at less than this. I don't recall what the frequencies on the West Coast Mainline is, but if it's about 10tph then there's probably not a whole lot more capacity left.

Typical off-peak hour is 12 Fast Line departures.
Add a Blackpool, that's 13.
Peak, up to 15. At that point, all trains get to within the 3 minute minimum headway with each other at some point. To make that work some of the Virgin services have to have an additional 0.5 - 1 minute of pathing allowance to squeeze in that extra LNWR peak service. Without slowing everything down to 110mph max, the additional paths won't exist.

 

[Bald Rick]

... and there’s the variety of stops. Fast Line departures from Euston, standard hour:

xx00 Manchester (first stop Stoke)
xx03 Birmingham (Rugby P1, it loses a minute on the switch to the platform line)
xx07 Liverpool (Stafford)
xx10 Chester (MK)
xx13 Birmingham LNR (Leighton Buzzard, DF>DS @ Ledburn)
xx20 Manchester (MK, 3 mins behind the LNR at Ledburn)
xx23 Birmingham (Watford, 3 mins behind the Manchester from MK)
xx30 Glasgow (Warrington, 3 minutes behind the Birmingham from Watford)

Not bad for half an hour. The line is full (of trains): every service is on minimum headway (3 minutes) at some point between Euston and Rugby. Put it like this, with the service in the other direction being similar, if you stand on one of the fast line platforms at Watford from xx10 for half an hour, you’d be hard pushed not to be constantly seeing at least one train on the fast lines for as far as you can see them. And if my recent experience* is anything to go by, the trains are pretty full of people too.

*mid afternoon on Thursday, northbound on a Birmingham terminator, 11 coach Pendolino, about 80% full in first and Standard.

 

[6Gman]

... and there’s the variety of stops. Fast Line departures from Euston, standard hour:

xx00 Manchester (first stop Stoke)
xx03 Birmingham (Rugby P1)
xx07 Liverpool (Stafford)
xx10 Chester (MK)

A very good summary. Just to pick up on the section I've quoted above I quite often use the xx07 or xx10 departures. Any delay to the first two trains immediately affects the next two. The xx07 often picks up a check approaching Rugby from the xx03 entering the platform, which then impacts the xx10.

It's really very crowded !

 

[Esker-pades]

... and there’s the variety of stops. Fast Line departures from Euston, standard hour:

xx00 Manchester (first stop Stoke)
xx03 Birmingham (Rugby P1)
xx07 Liverpool (Stafford)
xx10 Chester (MK)
xx13 Birmingham LNR (Leighton Buzzard, DF>DS @ Ledburn)
xx20 Manchester (MK, 4 1/2 mins behind the LNR at Ledburn)
xx23 Birmingham (Watford, 3 mins behind the Manchester from MK)
xx30 Glasgow (Warrington, 3 minutes behind the Birmingham from Watford)

Not bad for half an hour. The line is full (of trains). Put it like this, with the service in the other direction being similar, if you stand on one of the fast line platforms at Watford from xx10 for half an hour, you’d be hard pushed not to be constantly seeing at least one train on the fast lines for as far as you can see them. And if my recent experience* is anything to go by, the trains are pretty full of people too.

*mid afternoon on Thursday, northbound on a Birmingham terminator, 11 coach Pendolino, about 80% full in first and Standard.

The XX:13 often has a wait at Ledburn before shifting from the Fast to Slow, so it's being re-timed to XX:15 from May. That makes it 3 minutes ahead of the XX:20 Manchester.

 

[Bald Rick]

The XX:13 often has a wait at Ledburn before shifting from the Fast to Slow, so it's being re-timed to XX:15 from May. That makes it 3 minutes ahead of the XX:20 Manchester.

I need to correct myself. (Earlier post edited).

The xx13 is usually only 3 minutes in front of the Manchester on today’s timetable.

From the new timetable it is timed at 110mph, so despite leaving Euston later, it arrives at Ledburn in the same path.

 

[DynamicSpirit]

... and there’s the variety of stops. Fast Line departures from Euston, standard hour:

xx00 Manchester (first stop Stoke)
xx03 Birmingham (Rugby P1, it loses a minute on the switch to the platform line)
xx07 Liverpool (Stafford)
xx10 Chester (MK)
xx13 Birmingham LNR (Leighton Buzzard, DF>DS @ Ledburn)
xx20 Manchester (MK, 3 mins behind the LNR at Ledburn)
xx23 Birmingham (Watford, 3 mins behind the Manchester from MK)
xx30 Glasgow (Warrington, 3 minutes behind the Birmingham from Watford)

To be fair, if you're listing trains in that way, you should probably do the full hour. Some quick counting of trains and remembering VT has 9tph from Euston suggests to me that the other half-hour must be a lot more spaced out - but I'm guessing there is some good reason for that (Needing to keep paths for freight or something further up the line?)

I do also agree with you that the trains are in general very busy. I've probably used the line once every few months for about the last 10 years, travelling to a variety of destinations. Through most of that time - and certainly in recent years - my experience has almost always been of trains largely packed out - 80%+ of seats occupied. The only exceptions have been when the Chester Voyagers (and even those are pretty packed out on a Friday), or if I've been returning to London very late in the evening - arriving Euston after 10pm or so - when trains have usually been pretty quiet. Also, Glasgow trains tend to get much less busy north of Lancaster (but that doesn't help much with the Southern end of the WCML)

 

[Esker-pades]

To be fair, if you're listing trains in that way, you should probably do the full hour. Some quick counting of trains and remembering VT has 9tph from Euston suggests to me that the other half-hour must be a lot more spaced out - but I'm guessing there is some good reason for that (Needing to keep paths for freight or something further up the line?)

I do also agree with you that the trains are in general very busy. I've probably used the line once every few months for about the last 10 years, travelling to a variety of destinations. Through most of that time - and certainly in recent years - my experience has almost always been of trains largely packed out - 80%+ of seats occupied. The only exceptions have been when the Chester Voyagers (and even those are pretty packed out on a Friday), or if I've been returning to London very late in the evening - arriving Euston after 10pm or so - when trains have usually been pretty quiet. Also, Glasgow trains tend to get much less busy north of Lancaster (but that doesn't help much with the Southern end of the WCML)

xx30 Glasgow (Warrington, 3 minutes behind xx23 from Watford)
xx40 Manchester (Crewe)
xx43 Scotland via Birmingham (MKC)
xx46 Crewe via Trent Valley (MKC)
xx49 Birmingham (Watford, onto Slow at MKC)
xx00 Manchester (6 minutes behind xx49 at MKC, 6 minutes behind xx46 at Rugby)

There are services at 10:36 and 16:33 to Blackpool.

The peak hours, where capacity does not exist, is fun to look at.

Spoiler: Peak Hours

16:57 Glasgow (Tamworth)
17:00 Manchester (Stoke)
17:03 Birmingham (Rugby)
17:07 Liverpool (Stafford)
17:10 Holyhead (Milton Keynes)
17:13 Birmingham (Milton Keynes - onto slow there)
17:16 Northampton (Leighton Buzzard - onto slow at Ledburn)
17:20 Manchester (Milton Keynes - 3 mins behind 17:16 at Ledburn, 4 mins behind 17:13 at MKC)
17:23 Birmingham (Watford)
17:30 Glasgow (Warrington - 3 mins behind 17:23 from Watford)
17:33 Liverpool (Rugby)
17:40 Manchester (Crewe - 3 mins behind 17:33 from Rugby)
17:43 Glasgow via Birmingham (MKC)
17:46 Crewe via Trent Valley (MKC)
17:49 Birmingham (Leighton Buzzard - onto slow at Ledburn)
17:57 Lancaster (Tamworth - 3 mins behind 17:49 at Ledburn, 3 mins behind 17:46 at Hilmorton)
18:00 Manchester (Stoke)
18:03 Wolverhampton (Rugby)
18:07 Liverpool (Stafford)
18:10 Wrexham (Milton Keynes)
18:13 Birmingham (Milton Keynes - onto slow at Hanslope)
18:16 Northampton (Leighton Buzzard - onto slow at Ledburn)
18:20 Manchester (Milton Keynes - 3 mins behind 18:16 at Ledburn)
18:23 Shrewsbury (Watford)
18:30 Glasgow (Warrington - 3 mins behind 17:23 from Watford)
18:34 Liverpool (Rugby)
18:40 Manchester (Crewe - 3 mins behind 18:34 from Rugby)
18:43 Crewe via Birmingham (MKC)
18:49 Crewe via Northampton (MKC - onto slow there)
18:52 Birmingham (Leighton Buzzard - onto slow at Ledburn)
19:00 Manchester (Stoke)

I think that's it.

 

[Glenn1969]

Virgin on RTT today are listed as also having run a 1857 (Crewe and Manchester Picc only) and a 1846 (MKC then Rugby, Stafford and stations to Preston)

 

[Esker-pades]

Virgin on RTT today are listed as also having run a 1857 (Crewe and Manchester Picc only) and a 1846 (MKC then Rugby, Stafford and stations to Preston)

Yes. Those are Friday only services. I was looking at the other weekdays. I should make that clear. Sorry.

 

[Ianno87]

Virgin on RTT today are listed as also having run a 1857 (Crewe and Manchester Picc only) and a 1846 (MKC then Rugby, Stafford and stations to Preston)

Yes. Those are Friday only services. I was looking at the other weekdays. I should make that clear. Sorry.

Varying the number of trains run on different days according to demand? Sounds very 'smart'

 

[The Ham]

Varying the number of trains run on different days according to demand? Sounds very 'smart'

Although, if I've counted correctly, all the extra two paths at 18:XX provide is 16tph, which is the same as is provided in the 15:XX hour.

Even then that's a maximum of 3tph which could be provided off peak. However, if you provide zero slack if something goes wrong you've got delays and cancellations all day.

Anyway isn't some of that capacity spoken for in the form of the open access and/or the suggested extra Virgin services to Liverpool?

If so that wouldn't leave much (if any) capacity for future growth.

With regards to seating capacity according to government data the number of passengers into Euston over the whole day is about 60% of the total seat provision (the reverse is also true). That doesn't provide a lot of spare capacity and accords with the antidotal accounts of 80% full on most services (assuming that most travel is undertaken on the busier services and those services which are a bit quieter aren't as likely to be observed).

 

[Bald Rick]

To be fair, if you're listing trains in that way, you should probably do the full hour.

I really couldn’t be bothered!

The peak hours, where capacity does not exist, is fun to look at.

Thank you, sir, for taking the time to list the peak. That timetable is a work of art.

 

[Glenn1969]

Do we know how many of those trains would be routed via HS2 when the line opens?

 

[Bald Rick]

Do we know how many of those trains would be routed via HS2 when the line opens?

The service spec will completely change. But effectively all the Virgins bar the Chester / North Wales.

 

[Railwaysceptic]

"supposed experts" - How's everything going Mr. Gove?

Clearly, you think there are additional paths at the peak time. As every single timetabler and planner has said that there aren't, if you can find some additional paths, I think you'd get a knighthood.

Saying "you've all got it wrong", but not offering any solutions is utterly, utterly pointless.

I think you need to calm down. I have not said anyone has got it all wrong. I have not mentioned train paths at peak times. I have pointed out that there seems to be spare capacity at some times of day and that I will use my own eyes to form my own opinion.

As for your silly point about not offering solutions, this is a railway forum where ideas and opinions are shared. It is not a workshop where high ranking railway professionals formulate policy.

 

[Railwaysceptic]

"Supposed experts". You can't state possibly justify such a statement unless you can *prove* they are wrong. Simply saying they are wrong, with no justification (aside from observing passing trains out of a window), doesn't fly.

You have failed to notice that I have made no criticism of anyone involved with either HS2 or the WCML.

In any industry and any large business concern, there are a few unusually able people and a much larger number of people with only normal aptitudes and skills. This applies to the railway as well and therefore the number of experts - in the proper sense of that term - will be quite small.