Why the seemingingly random availability of very cheap fares on East Coast?

[Relativenewbie]

Yesterday I bought a single from Durham to London for a Friday in about two months' time with a 16-25 railcard for 9.95, on the East Coast website. While not all the trains on that day were this cheap price, there quite a few, usually one an hour, right through the afternoon and evening. Today I'm looking at going back to Durham in April, again on a Friday, and the only fares available with my railcard are 39.95! (Which I assume to be the 'normal' advance cost). Why was I able to buy much cheaper tickets for journey in mid-March and not in April.

Cheers

 

[Nym]

Advance tickets aren't released yet for April, have a look on the EC home page and you can register for an alert to tell you when they are.

 

[Relativenewbie]

Advance tickets aren't released yet for April, have a look on the EC home page and you can register for an alert to tell you when they are.

But there are tickets available for early April, which is when I'm travelling up, just not the very cheap ones. Are you saying there is a time when normal fares are available but the budget ones are not released yet?

 

[Paul Kelly]

Is it the Easter holidays then? That would be a good reason why they might make less cheap advance quota available; it's a predictable time of year when more people will be travelling and willing to pay more so they don't need to offer very cheap fares. I wouldn't really call it random.

 

[yorkie]

But there are tickets available for early April, which is when I'm travelling up, just not the very cheap ones. Are you saying there is a time when normal fares are available but the budget ones are not released yet?

You can buy tickets up to one year in advance, however most booking sites only let you book up to around 3 months in advance.

Advance tickets always come with mandatory reservations for all reserveable trains. You cannot purchase an Advance ticket without a reservation.

Reservations are currently open up to the following dates:

http://www.nationalrail.co.uk/times_fares/booking_horizons.html

If you purchase a ticket for a date when reservations are not yet open, only tickets that do not require a reservation will be available.

 

[paul1609]

Yesterday I bought a single from Durham to London for a Friday in about two months' time with a 16-25 railcard for 9.95, on the East Coast website. While not all the trains on that day were this cheap price, there quite a few, usually one an hour, right through the afternoon and evening. Today I'm looking at going back to Durham in April, again on a Friday, and the only fares available with my railcard are 39.95! (Which I assume to be the 'normal' advance cost). Why was I able to buy much cheaper tickets for journey in mid-March and not in April.

Cheers

You do really have to question why there are so many of these fares available on the East Coast Main Line that are most obviously way below the cost price. If there are so many spare seats available should not the Dft be specifying reduced service or length of trains?

 

[cuccir]

Remeber that there is a difference between Advance tickets and tickets bought in advance. Don't you like that our ticket system is simple? *

If you go to this page and select your journey and date, you should get an email when the Advance tickets are released for that date.

*Not that I'm necessarily criticizing this - just don't claim that it's simple when it's not!

 

[bb21]

You do really have to question why there are so many of these fares available on the East Coast Main Line that are most obviously way below the cost price. If there are so many spare seats available should not the Dft be specifying reduced service or length of trains?

I don't think it would be workable if trains have to have carriages attached/detached throughout the day.

 

[NSEFAN]

You do really have to question why there are so many of these fares available on the East Coast Main Line that are most obviously way below the cost price. If there are so many spare seats available should not the Dft be specifying reduced service or length of trains?

I don't think it would be workable if trains have to have carriages attached/detached throughout the day.

Quite. In the case of most IC operators, trains are in fixed or semi-fixed formation. Splitting long distance expresses ended with locomotive hauled trains.

The railway seems to be aiming for a turn-up-and-go clockface timetable on many routes, which might sound wasteful but is a lot more attractive to the passenger. Since there is less demand during the middle of the day (generally), it makes sense to try and attract more passengers by offering cheap advance fares. Better to have a mainly-full train with passengers paying less, than to have a nearly-empty train with only expensive anytime fares available.

 

[island]

You do really have to question why there are so many of these fares available on the East Coast Main Line that are most obviously way below the cost price. If there are so many spare seats available should not the Dft be specifying reduced service or length of trains?

How do you know they are below the cost price?

 

[tbtc]

Is it the Easter holidays then? That would be a good reason why they might make less cheap advance quota available; it's a predictable time of year when more people will be travelling and willing to pay more so they don't need to offer very cheap fares. I wouldn't really call it random.

Yup - end of March/ start of April - don't expect many "bargain" tickets at that busy time of year (certainly not compared to January when demand seems flatter).

 

[sheff1]

You do really have to question why there are so many of these fares available on the East Coast Main Line that are most obviously way below the cost price.

What exactly is the cost price ? I assume it is lower than the market price - by how much ?

 

[bb21]

What exactly is the cost price ? I assume it is lower than the market price - by how much ?

Depends on how you calculate the cost per passenger I would think.

 

[tbtc]

Depends on how you calculate the cost per passenger I would think.

Cost price is presumably the marginal cost of carrying one extra passenger (extra fuel required, extra wear and tear on the seat fabric, extra litter to clean... basically, pennies)

 

[mikeg]

Cost price is presumably the marginal cost of carrying one extra passenger (extra fuel required, extra wear and tear on the seat fabric, extra litter to clean... basically, pennies)

Not necessarily quite that. It's not linear. For example the marginal cost of each passenger on an underutilised service is low until it gets to the point where the service is better utilised in which case extra carriages/more frequent service is needed. The marginal cost shoots up until you have another underutilised service and thus the marginal cost goes down again (assuming it's like the marginal cost of buses - I read a journal article on this).

So the trick with advances is to stop selling them short just of the point where marginal cost goes up again.

 

[calc7]

So the trick with advances is to stop selling them short just of the point where marginal cost goes up again.

Which is exactly what the major InterCity operators do. Advances tick up in price (as a function of time and quota) until there's either none left or they're not much cheaper than a walk-up single. Good yield management if you ask me.

 

[sheff1]

Thanks. So now we have a couple of possibilities but paul1609 was clear that fares available on EC are most obviously way below the cost price. So 'stop selling them just short ....' is apparently not the policy of EC.

 

[CockneySparrow]

I don't think it would be workable if trains have to have carriages attached/detached throughout the day.

No point really, makes no difference operationally whether there is two carriages or nine, there will still be a train at a certain point of the network at any given time

 

[IanD]

... paul1609 was clear that fares available on EC are most obviously way below the cost price...

I'd guess that he is clearly guessing as he has not returned to provide a source for his assertion.