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Will HS2 be an 'elevator' railway?

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Hetlana

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Imagine an elevator in an apartment block, like the one in my own appartment block, here in Nanjing, China. Now, if you were to study the journeys made by each person using that elevator, you will pretty soon notice that nearly all the journeys either begin or end on the ground floor. Certainly, the vast majority of my elevator journeys do just that, and for obvious reasons.

And because of that, a typical elevator travelling to the top of the building will start off more crowded and become progressively more empty as its more of its customers leave the elevator to enter their respective floors and then their own apartments.

Now it may seem obvious and pointless to make all that point but I think that it's worth using it as a metaphor for railway and other public transport usage. Certain transport you would expect to be used like an elevator - a school bus for example where every child's journey either begins or ends at one end of the journey - the school, or a commuter rail line where every passenger gets off at the same city centre terminus to go to work in the morning but in the evening gets off at the many different suburban and dormitory town stops at the other end of the line.

But the elevator metaphor should, ideally, not apply to whole countries, and particularly those above, say, 40,000 KM2, as that would suggest that the entire economy is centred around just one centre, with the rest of the country being its commuter belt. A good economy, in my opinion, is one that is pluricentric like Germany's, with no single metropolis sucking in the wealth from the rest of the country and turning it into its commuter belt or hinterland.

So will HS2 be an elevator railway with nearly all journeys involving London, with that city turning the English Midlands and North into its own commuter hinterland, or will you have Mancunians travelling to Birmingham, and Yorkshiremen travelling to Nottingham, and with all cities along the line being centres in their own right?
 
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yorkie

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Or will you have Mancunians travelling to Birmingham, and Yorkshiremen travelling to Nottingham, and with all cities along the line being centres in their own right?
If there are high speed, 'walk-up' services which link those places together, with affordable fares, you will see booming passenger numbers between those places.
 

Ianno87

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If there are high speed, 'walk-up' services which link those places together, with affordable fares, you will see booming passenger numbers between those places.

Those particular journeys are examples of where the current journey time is a poor competitor to road travel. HS2 will be transformational for these and may create a large amount of modal shift.
 

158756

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Those particular journeys are examples of where the current journey time is a poor competitor to road travel. HS2 will be transformational for these and may create a large amount of modal shift.

For Manchester/Leeds - Birmingham journey times between the city centres already match the car , or better with congestion, though nothing like the advantage rail has on journeys involving London. Sheffield to Birmingham is already quicker by rail. Leeds-Nottingham trains are both slow and infrequent, but going via HS2 will involve a change.

I do think journeys between the regional cities will increase substantially with better service though, but it'll still be nowhere near the demand for London. The parkway stations - Birmingham Interchange, Manchester Airport and possibly Toton, I suspect will be used overwhelmingly for trips to London.
 

HSTEd

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If we exclude areas of England (South of London and the West etc) that are not significantly effected by HS2.... how much bigger than 40,000km^2 is it?
 

PR1Berske

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So will HS2 be an elevator railway with nearly all journeys involving London,
Yes. It's designed to be a new line into Euston so it's natural that journeys will be biased towards London.
 

najaB

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Yes. It's designed to be a new line into Euston so it's natural that journeys will be biased towards London.
They'll be biased towards London, naturally, but there's a marked difference between 95% of journeys starting/ending there versus 60%.
 

Chester1

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They'll be biased towards London, naturally, but there's a marked difference between 95% of journeys starting/ending there versus 60%.

Manchester and Leeds will have 3 or 4 HS2 services to London vs 1 or 2 HS2 services to Birmingham. That proves your point, a majority of passengers will be travelling to or from London but a large minority won't be.
 

Ianno87

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Yes. It's designed to be a new line into Euston so it's natural that journeys will be biased towards London.

And Birmingham Curzon Street. Where about a quarter of HS2 service will go without going anywhere near Euston.
 

Senex

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So will HS2 be an elevator railway with nearly all journeys involving London, with that city turning the English Midlands and North into its own commuter hinterland, or will you have Mancunians travelling to Birmingham, and Yorkshiremen travelling to Nottingham, and with all cities along the line being centres in their own right?
Yes, because that's what it is designed to be. Essentially, the design replicates the existing WCML by building a main line ultimately aimed at Glasgow (if it were ever to get north of the Wigan area) and putting Birmingham and Manchester, and perhaps later Liverpool, all on branches. (On the eastern side Leeds too ends up in its historic setting of a city on a branch as the main line of HS2 heads onwards to Church Fenton and the ECML.) This is very clearly a "London and ..." railway rather than a railway designed to optimise connections between the great cities of the West Midlands and the North-West.
 

Hetlana

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Yes, because that's what it is designed to be. Essentially, the design replicates the existing WCML by building a main line ultimately aimed at Glasgow (if it were ever to get north of the Wigan area) and putting Birmingham and Manchester, and perhaps later Liverpool, all on branches. (On the eastern side Leeds too ends up in its historic setting of a city on a branch as the main line of HS2 heads onwards to Church Fenton and the ECML.) This is very clearly a "London and ..." railway rather than a railway designed to optimise connections between the great cities of the West Midlands and the North-West.
So what's your opinion of HS2 then?
 

PR1Berske

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He means the trains to/from Curzon St that do not go to Euston.
But all HS2 trains go from Euston to Birmingham only. That's it's reason to exist, there's no HS2 north of Birmingham initially, and what are you suggesting, shuttles from East Mids Parkway to Old Oak?
 

PR1Berske

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In Phase 1, yes. However the full route extends northwards to Manchester, Liverpool, etc.
With the time it'll take to build, I'm only dealing with Phase 1. Indeed, and I'm not alone on this forum with this opinion, there may be nothing else beyond Phase 1.
 

Altnabreac

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In one way an elevator is quite a good metaphor for HS2 vs a traditional railway.

Specifically in very large skyscrapers elevators are separated out to allow the upper floors to be accessed by express non stop elevators and then change to a local elevator to access intermediate floors. Meanwhile elevators closer to the ground need segregated capacity to operate to their full potential.
https://www.deerns.com/documents/Brochures/Elevator planning for high rise buildings_DEF.pdf

The maximum capacity required is even driven by an AM peak in a similar fashion to railways.
 

The Planner

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But all HS2 trains go from Euston to Birmingham only. That's it's reason to exist, there's no HS2 north of Birmingham initially, and what are you suggesting, shuttles from East Mids Parkway to Old Oak?

Are you seriously of the belief there are no trains north of Birmingham in Phase 1? So there is no link from the junction of the Birmingham Spur to Handsacre, just north of Lichfield on the WCML where trains will join from HS2 and travel further north, as per the Hybrid Bill for Phase 1?
 

PR1Berske

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Are you seriously of the belief there are no trains north of Birmingham in Phase 1? So there is no link from the junction of the Birmingham Spur to Handsacre, just north of Lichfield on the WCML where trains will join from HS2 and travel further north, as per the Hybrid Bill for Phase 1?
Phase 1 is Euston to Birmingham. North of that is not 'high speed rail', is it?
 

Ianno87

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Phase 1 is Euston to Birmingham. North of that is not 'high speed rail', is it?

HS2 Phase 1 is designed to [and does] make London Euston-Manchester Piccadilly (etc.) around 15-20 minutes faster than today. So yes, it is (even if the high speed physical infrastructure only lasts out as far as just north of Lichfield).
 

B&I

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Probably depends on the extent to which the people who run Britain continue to channel all investment and economic activity into the London area.
 

NSEFAN

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Phase 1 is Euston to Birmingham. North of that is not 'high speed rail', is it?
If the line was literally segregated, then I would have more sympathy with your view because that would be bloody stupid. But you know perfectly well that the plan for phase 1 is to use the line essentially as the equivalent of a pair of fast lines and passing loops added to the existing railway, hence the WCML will still benefit even if phase 2 never happens.

Do you think that the connections to the WCML North of Birmingham won't happen either?
 
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