Will St Pancras Thameslink cope?

[Mutant Lemming]

I tend to try and avoid the evening rush hour .

.... 14:30 to 23:48

 

[tsr]

It does - it's called the Victoria line! Theres no point in a second core that just follows the path of a Tube service

I use the Victoria line very often (at all times of the day, too). It's only just coping, and the disruption to passengers when it all goes wrong is just as immense as a failure in the TL Core, as you probably well know. In my opinion, what needs to be done is a massive tunnel widening project and a link to the mainlines, but I'm pretty sure that would be 99% impossible - hence my suggestion for a second line, which would be used by trains running fast between Victoria and Euston.

For my theoretical link, you'd have low-level through platforms at a height roughly between the current mainline platforms and the existing deep-level Victoria line platforms at Victoria station itself. These would run as straight as possible, preferably with gradients to allow them to also run at as deep a level as possible, to Euston, where there would be low-level platforms and a direct HS1 connection.

In an ideal world, there would also be branches to Waterloo and - somehow - into the Metropolitan/Circle/H&C from Euston Square to King's Cross St Pancras, where (and this is the ridiculously ambitious bit) there would be a link to the junction with the King's Cross Thameslink lines north of St Pancras LL. In addition, Euston and Euston Square would be a fully integrated underground interchange.

And if you have a few billion left over, you might like to link Fenchurch Street and the Waterloo branch.

Now, why is this a sane idea? Because a lot of people coming into Victoria and Waterloo want to get to Euston, and vice versa, or perhaps they have been on the BML haven't wanted to change trains at East Croydon but still want to go to St Pancras or even to destinations north of King's Cross. Using the tube is something that an awful lot of people dread.

Something that is also an interesting development is Gatwick Airport. Bear with me. If the WCML and HS1 were to connect to Gatwick Airport, it would offer massive opportunities for said airport. There's actually a lot of expansion potential after the agreement not to reposition the 2nd runway ends, and there have been rather sensible suggestions that Gatwick could rival Heathrow at some point. At about that very time, the link that I am proposing would be newly open, and ready to handle extra passengers.

Before anyone kills the above arguments with references to the WLL and Southern's MK services... I have considered those, but I don't see how they are any match for what I have proposed when you consider long-term strategy other than for commuters and short-distance passenger use.

 

[Bald Rick]

Victoria to Euston is the core part of Crossrail 2. 'nuff said.

 

[tbtc]

Not sure I agree with this. Boundbound this problem of not wanting the next train exists with a mix of Brighton, Sutton, Rochester, Ashford and other SE joint services meaning people are sometimes waiting for a train three or four behind the current one.

The first few years it'll cope but bet within 10 years you start seeing major over crowding like there is now

True, though the vast majority of trains in the "core" at the moment are Brighton or Sutton ones (eight out of the ten trains an hour, off peak?).

There's also a few minutes between trains for passengers to circulate.

With up to twenty four trains an hour the gaps between services will be a lot shorter, and the "variety" of passengers will grow more.

As others have pointed out, there's no real space to cram in more platforms (sadly). However I do wonder whether this ought to be a consideration of those wanting to spice up the variety of routes that serve the Thameslink and Crossrail cores.

 

[Minstral25]

As a passenger who goes beyond East Croydon I do not think this is correct in the Rush Hour. Undoubtedly there is a large East Croydon destination flow but there are many passengers who continue pass this point.

If you take the 12 coach trains from London Bridge to Horsham in the evening peak as an example, whilst there is some change of passengers at East Croydon people will still be standing from London Bridge at Redhill. I believe there is a similar situation with East Grinstead and Caterham/Tattenham trains but I don't travel on them past East Croydon.

All these trains are converting to Thameslink platforms so it could mean instant issues with overcrowding on the platforms which will mean the 18 trains per hour will be tough to operate at London Bridge from one platform as other than East Croydon their destinations are for different busy traffic

 

[Class377/5]

As a passenger who goes beyond East Croydon I do not think this is correct in the Rush Hour. Undoubtedly there is a large East Croydon destination flow but there are many passengers who continue pass this point.

If you take the 12 coach trains from London Bridge to Horsham in the evening peak as an example, whilst there is some change of passengers at East Croydon people will still be standing from London Bridge at Redhill. I believe there is a similar situation with East Grinstead and Caterham/Tattenham trains but I don't travel on them past East Croydon.

All these trains are converting to Thameslink platforms so it could mean instant issues with overcrowding on the platforms which will mean the 18 trains per hour will be tough to operate at London Bridge from one platform as other than East Croydon their destinations are for different busy traffic

Croydon was an example. It's not the only flow but a major one. There will be always be standing in the peaks, there are just too many people to move during these hours. Not that most people have a chance to do anything about it.

As for the new platforms, with proper system in place to move passengers around the station that's built for tomorrows needs, I don't think we're going to have as much of an issue as you'd expect. Currently the station in a bodge job that needs complete rebuilding to make it work for today's traffic levels. All the TLP Core stations are designed to keep up with passenger loading far into the future. For example Blackfriars modelling is designed to keep the station going until 2071.

Also another point is just because today's crowds get on/off at London Bridge, doesn't mean it will continue. I bet there are people who currently walk to near a Thameslink station but don't want the hassle of changing at London Bridge for the rare Thameslink trains that's already packed. A through train will change this.

True, though the vast majority of trains in the "core" at the moment are Brighton or Sutton ones (eight out of the ten trains an hour, off peak?).

There's also a few minutes between trains for passengers to circulate.

With up to twenty four trains an hour the gaps between services will be a lot shorter, and the "variety" of passengers will grow more.

As others have pointed out, there's no real space to cram in more platforms (sadly). However I do wonder whether this ought to be a consideration of those wanting to spice up the variety of routes that serve the Thameslink and Crossrail cores.

Off peak crowding isn't an issue. As for vast majority of trains are Brighton, this simply doesn't apply in the peak. Many more Southeastern workings so you already get people having to wait for a train.

The point is St Pancras, City and Blackfriars will cope. It's Farringdon that will be the first major issue.

I do agree with your points over 'spicing' up routes through the Core. Keep it simple and it should run better. However with no choosen routes, I do worry that all the hard work will be done before they allow anyone to actual see what the service plan is. Worst yet, seems that the new Thameslink franchise may allow a more fluid approach to the Core services to change as is felt nesscarsy.

 

[jon0844]

I could turn up for a Bedford service and have to wait for the Cambridge train to depart, then the St Albans train to depart then the Peterborough train to depart... all in around ten minutes... that means a lot of people stood on the platforms but not boarding the trains.

The Underground can cope with ultra-frequent services okay, but then at most central London stations everyone is going to board the first LUL service that turns up. You don't have the complication of different crowds of people getting in each other's way as they wait for a separate service.

(Crossrail shouldn't have this problem, with its simple pattern of services)

This is exactly why I think that it could become a disaster very quickly, even with relatively minor disruption. The problem with crowding will then increase the dwell times, which in turn makes things worse.

If you tried to control the crowds by restricting access, you'd annoy people who want a train now, who are held back with people who don't need to get a train for 10-15 minutes (or whatever it might be). I used to get frustrated when held at Old Street due to congestion on the Northern Line, when I wanted to use FCC which was rarely, if ever, crowded. Of course, staff can't tell (or necessarily trust you) so you get held back with everyone else. More platforms could have helped this, but that didn't happen and I presume cannot happen easily in the future?

Commuters can perhaps spread out along the other core stations, and know the alternatives (like Farringdon to King's Cross by tube if TL goes tits up) or the no 63, or even walking - but St Pancras will always be busy because it is used by many people who are, to put it politely, clueless (and nobody should expect them to be otherwise, to be fair).

I've not used the line for ages (not since 12-car trains started to run) but do they still have the summary departure boards upstairs showing a mix of northbound and southbound services? At the very least, they need to provide separated info (they have two screens which AFAIK show the same data) and perhaps encourage people not to go downstairs until shortly before their train is due. So separate screens for A and B and also 'next train to xxx' displays that can help tourists know which train to get to go to Luton Airport, Gatwick or whatever. I believe there is fixed text to say, but they need to be dynamic and show live info.

If all of this isn't done, you're going to hear of major carnage everytime things go wrong. I also fear that it's going to cause major grief on the ECML when there are delays, as it will really mess up all the paths with the Intercity trains and the slows. I'd love to be proved wrong! I want to be proved wrong (as I look forward to trains that will go beyond King's Cross) but I'm a realist!

 

[Class377/5]

This is exactly why I think that it could become a disaster very quickly, even with relatively minor disruption. The problem with crowding will then increase the dwell times, which in turn makes things worse.

If you tried to control the crowds by restricting access, you'd annoy people who want a train now, who are held back with people who don't need to get a train for 10-15 minutes (or whatever it might be). I used to get frustrated when held at Old Street due to congestion on the Northern Line, when I wanted to use FCC which was rarely, if ever, crowded. Of course, staff can't tell (or necessarily trust you) so you get held back with everyone else. More platforms could have helped this, but that didn't happen and I presume cannot happen easily in the future?

Commuters can perhaps spread out along the other core stations, and know the alternatives (like Farringdon to King's Cross by tube if TL goes tits up) or the no 63, or even walking - but St Pancras will always be busy because it is used by many people who are, to put it politely, clueless (and nobody should expect them to be otherwise, to be fair).

I've not used the line for ages (not since 12-car trains started to run) but do they still have the summary departure boards upstairs showing a mix of northbound and southbound services? At the very least, they need to provide separated info (they have two screens which AFAIK show the same data) and perhaps encourage people not to go downstairs until shortly before their train is due. So separate screens for A and B and also 'next train to xxx' displays that can help tourists know which train to get to go to Luton Airport, Gatwick or whatever. I believe there is fixed text to say, but they need to be dynamic and show live info.

If all of this isn't done, you're going to hear of major carnage everytime things go wrong. I also fear that it's going to cause major grief on the ECML when there are delays, as it will really mess up all the paths with the Intercity trains and the slows. I'd love to be proved wrong! I want to be proved wrong (as I look forward to trains that will go beyond King's Cross) but I'm a realist!

I fear your predictions will be proven correct. Looking at the ability to handle a Core closure, from the north it's do-able just but not much leaway. However from the south, 32tph (from Blackfriars) is impossible.