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Will the lockdown increase in cycling end in tears?

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ashkeba

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There was one of the London colleges made a comparison a few years ago between modes of transport for pollution consumption. The cyclist on the busy fast London roads consumed less than a bus passenger. The cyclist on the Quietway consumed even less.

Does anyone else remember this? Can you find it? I thought it was UCL but it seems not
 
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LMS 4F

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Leeds City Council are reporting that road casualties during the lockdown were significantly lower. No surprise there and that they are now getting back to pre lockdown levels. Again no surprise and seems to me to answer the original question of this thread. Increased traffic of whatever sort will lead to an increase in casualties.
If there were only bikes on the roads some people would still fall off and run into things and more use will lead to more casualties, unfortunately.
 

Jozhua

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Just saw a video from Extinction Rebellion in Manchester, who came out (I believe) this morning to create a bike lane with spray paint and cones. The whole thing looks fairly good to be fair, and serves to link up a 300m gap between existing bike lanes. Not always enamoured by XR (Tying themselves to green public transport??), but the protests done around Manchester have been pretty good.

I think making sure there aren't significant gaps on busy roads helps make cycling safer and I can see every extension adding to the numbers of people willing to cycle, as the network will cover more destinations. If the council managed in a week what XR can do in a couple of hours with some cones and a van, then I think Manchester could have a fairly decent cycle network soon...maybe they should be brought on as contractors!

Leeds City Council are reporting that road casualties during the lockdown were significantly lower. No surprise there and that they are now getting back to pre lockdown levels. Again no surprise and seems to me to answer the original question of this thread. Increased traffic of whatever sort will lead to an increase in casualties.
If there were only bikes on the roads some people would still fall off and run into things and more use will lead to more casualties, unfortunately.
Of the bike accidents I know from friends and family, the vast majority involved a car. It's fairly easy to not fall off when riding, and this risk only lowers with experience. It does help to have at least one hand on the handlebar though...
 

Bikeman78

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Of the bike accidents I know from friends and family, the vast majority involved a car. It's fairly easy to not fall off when riding, and this risk only lowers with experience. It does help to have at least one hand on the handlebar though...
I can't remember for certain when I last fell off. I think it was December 2010 when there was snow and ice for weeks.
 

Bletchleyite

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I can't remember for certain when I last fell off. I think it was December 2010 when there was snow and ice for weeks.

I usually lay my bike up in winter and walk/drive the journeys instead (public transport doesn't provide for the majority of journeys I make). Unfortunately the MK Redway system isn't gritted, and because it's quite smooth, small-stone tarmac (which is nicer for cycling in good weather) it is utterly treacherous in ice - even walking you might want to consider Yaktrax or similar. I'm sure there are appropriate tyres, but I don't find it worth the money as it's only a short period.
 

The Ham

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Whilst I would like for cycling to see an uplift following this time I'm not holding my breath, however there are some positive signs none the less.

Some councils are taking it seriously about providing cycle infrastructure. This includes closing to through traffic some of the secondary roads, this may give the impression that the main roads are busier than the overall traffic volumes would indicate.

Even through traffic is rising, from what I've seen its still down on the peak flows we've seen in recent years (on many roads they've seen 20% rise in traffic in the last decade, so may well be at this level but this is still down - it just feels normal). Some is because we've got the mix of "Saturdays" & weekdays with some being able to go to beaches whilst others work, however what is still noticeable is that off peak traffic is still below what it was.
 

Jozhua

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Whilst I would like for cycling to see an uplift following this time I'm not holding my breath, however there are some positive signs none the less.

Some councils are taking it seriously about providing cycle infrastructure. This includes closing to through traffic some of the secondary roads, this may give the impression that the main roads are busier than the overall traffic volumes would indicate.

Even through traffic is rising, from what I've seen its still down on the peak flows we've seen in recent years (on many roads they've seen 20% rise in traffic in the last decade, so may well be at this level but this is still down - it just feels normal). Some is because we've got the mix of "Saturdays" & weekdays with some being able to go to beaches whilst others work, however what is still noticeable is that off peak traffic is still below what it was.
I honestly think getting rid of those "peak flows" and "rush hours" was something we should have done years ago. It was stupid for everyone to rush into work at the exact same time, causing so much traffic it took everyone twice as long to get there.

Along with the possibility for remote working, doesn't make much sense. Just a 10-15% increase in traffic can be tue difference between free-flow and standstill.

For bikes, hopefully the quieter roads will help those who do need to commute at those times.

I hope more places take the infrastructure seriously, but Manchester still seems to he quite lacking. Almost nothing in much of the east midlands as well.
 

The Ham

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I honestly think getting rid of those "peak flows" and "rush hours" was something we should have done years ago. It was stupid for everyone to rush into work at the exact same time, causing so much traffic it took everyone twice as long to get there.

Along with the possibility for remote working, doesn't make much sense. Just a 10-15% increase in traffic can be tue difference between free-flow and standstill.

For bikes, hopefully the quieter roads will help those who do need to commute at those times.

I hope more places take the infrastructure seriously, but Manchester still seems to he quite lacking. Almost nothing in much of the east midlands as well.

Indeed, the level of traffic which many areas are during school holidays, where there's little in the way of congestion, is often only 10% lower than term time flows.

As a junction at 84% capacity is considered to be not a problem with congestion and delays increasing rapidly the more you get above that.

With a few junctions creating knock on impacts across a wider area, often creating congestion at junctions which otherwise would work fine.
 

LMS 4F

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I honestly think getting rid of those "peak flows" and "rush hours" was something we should have done years ago. It was stupid for everyone to rush into work at the exact same time, causing so much traffic it took everyone twice as long to get there.

Along with the possibility for remote working, doesn't make much sense. Just a 10-15% increase in traffic can be tue difference between free-flow and standstill.

For bikes, hopefully the quieter roads will help those who do need to commute at those times.

I hope more places take the infrastructure seriously, but Manchester still seems to he quite lacking. Almost nothing in much of the east midlands as well.
The rush hour is in many places now more like the three rush hours both morning an
Indeed, the level of traffic which many areas are during school holidays, where there's little in the way of congestion, is often only 10% lower than term time flows.

As a junction at 84% capacity is considered to be not a problem with congestion and delays increasing rapidly the more you get above that.

With a few junctions creating knock on impacts across a wider area, often creating congestion at junctions which otherwise would work fine.
The rush hour in many places is now three hours or longer both morning and evening. This is often because people are already trying to avoid congestion by going ever earlier on their commute.
 

Jamesrob637

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Whilst I would like for cycling to see an uplift following this time I'm not holding my breath, however there are some positive signs none the less.

Some councils are taking it seriously about providing cycle infrastructure. This includes closing to through traffic some of the secondary roads, this may give the impression that the main roads are busier than the overall traffic volumes would indicate.

Even through traffic is rising, from what I've seen its still down on the peak flows we've seen in recent years (on many roads they've seen 20% rise in traffic in the last decade, so may well be at this level but this is still down - it just feels normal). Some is because we've got the mix of "Saturdays" & weekdays with some being able to go to beaches whilst others work, however what is still noticeable is that off peak traffic is still below what it was.

There'll be no significant school run until September either with only a few year groups in and better weather meaning less kids will ask their parents or guardians to drive them. I live near-ish a couple of schools (on their commute anyway) and numbers of school run cars are small if any.
 

DB

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I would like to think it would involve a long-standing reduction in car use, but I rather doubt this will happen - as soon as we get towards winter, most of those who have cars will be back to using them.

I also expect that those who buy / start using cars because of not wanting to use public transport (either because of perceived risk, or because of the hostile messaging from the transport providers) will in many cases not go back either.

So the net result could be more cars on the road in due course.
 

squizzler

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I would like to think it would involve a long-standing reduction in car use, but I rather doubt this will happen - as soon as we get towards winter, most of those who have cars will be back to using them.

I also expect that those who buy / start using cars because of not wanting to use public transport (either because of perceived risk, or because of the hostile messaging from the transport providers) will in many cases not go back either.

So the net result could be more cars on the road in due course.
Your logic escapes me. If bike riders are meant to return to the bosom of the motoring community - from whence they came - after the current state of affairs is over, wouldn't transport users also return? And conversely, if those who have abandoned the transport system to try motoring are expected to stick at it because they are enjoying it so much, would the same not also be expected of those who transitioned from motoring to bicycle riding?

The fact of the matter is that many futurologists reckoned that we were at 'peak car' already before the virus struck. The new normal can, as I see it, only accelerate that trend.
 

DB

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Your logic escapes me. If bike riders are meant to return to the bosom of the motoring community - from whence they came - after the current state of affairs is over, wouldn't transport users also return? And conversely, if those who have abandoned the transport system to try motoring are expected to stick at it because they are enjoying it so much, would the same not also be expected of those who transitioned from motoring to bicycle riding?

The fact of the matter is that many futurologists reckoned that we were at 'peak car' already before the virus struck. The new normal can, as I see it, only accelerate that trend.

People who were happy to leave their cars when the weather was warming up, and there was a lot less traffic overall, are in many cases likely to be less keen when it's getting colder, and there is more traffic on the roads.

Public transport - I think it's important not to underestimate the potential long term impact of both the implication that it's not 'safe', and the impact of months of hostile messaging from the transport operators (or in the case of some buses, no services at all).
 

squizzler

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People who were happy to leave their cars when the weather was warming up, and there was a lot less traffic overall, are in many cases likely to be less keen when it's getting colder, and there is more traffic on the roads.

Public transport - I think it's important not to underestimate the potential long term impact of both the implication that it's not 'safe', and the impact of months of hostile messaging from the transport operators (or in the case of some buses, no services at all).

You make a good point, there are perceptions that biking is more "difficult" in cold weather, and that the transport system is "unsafe". Neither of which are true of course. Winter is less pleasant for travel generally, and motoring advocates take pains to craft a perception that motorcars protect you from the weather, but not that, for example, the motorist will have to don a coat and spend several minutes scraping ice off the windows the first frosty morning we get. It was not a million years ago that, for many, motoring was also essentially a summer weekend activity, and that the car went back in the garage during the weekdays and the winter months. Of course, nobody wants to get caught in rain on the bike, but for office workers at least, the flexible working arrangements give more opportunity to choose days where the can be avoided. The Danes and other Northern Europeans certainly manage to keep biking all year round, even before the current generation of ebikes make it easier still!
 

Bikeman78

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I ventured out on my bike today to pick up a few items in Sainsburys. I've not been far from the house for several days and the first thing I noticed is how much the traffic has picked up. Newport Road was at a standstill. At Sainsburys, the cycle parking area is near the front of the queue to get in. It has become a trolley park for people to collect a trolley on the way in. Fortunately there was one space that wasn't blocked by trolleys.

On the way home I nearly got run over by a lorry. He was slowly approaching a T junction from my left. My sixth sense told me that he wasn't going to stop. I was fooled by the fact that I heard the brakes squeak so I carried on but as I got to the point of no return he stepped on the accelerator. Missed me by centimetres and then stamped on the brakes when it was far too late.

Edit - I've since worked out what happened. I downloaded several still pictures from my camera as the lorry and I both approached the junction. I was trying to see if the driver looked to his right as he approached the junction. I couldn't see his face in any of the pictures because his head was behind the wing mirror. Therefore he couldn't see me!
 
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squizzler

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The momentum behind biking is not something that occurred in April only, it is still building as people start returning to regular work.

For instance there is a full page cycling feature inside that well known anti-motoring anarchist newsletter known as the Daily Telegraph:)8BB0C34E-6740-48B5-8AAF-98F80BDEB5F5.jpeg
 

Dr Hoo

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The momentum behind biking is not something that occurred in April only, it is still building as people start returning to regular work.

For instance there is a full page cycling feature inside that well known anti-motoring anarchist newsletter known as the Daily Telegraph:)View attachment 80148
I have no intention of reading the Telegraph but the item appears to be predicated on giving up train travel and using a bike instead - thereby pandering to the 'public transport is unsafe and turns you into a fat slob' (in public health terms) narrative.
 

Bletchleyite

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I have no intention of reading the Telegraph but the item appears to be predicated on giving up train travel and using a bike instead - thereby pandering to the 'public transport is unsafe and turns you into a fat slob' (in public health terms) narrative.

That's not really going to happen except for those travelling a couple of stops on dense urban networks like LU - but then again, when did the Press ever consider anything outside London?

A bike can however compete very well with almost all urban bus services, which are grindingly slow.
 

Jozhua

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In regards to the fear of public transport debate, I think for most people the worry won't be getting sick, rather that services can be cut, travel can be restricted and you can be stranded without mobility at short notice.

Which is fine if you live in Surrey, own a car, but use the train to get to your job in London, but for many, this fear of losing their mobility and freedom may be enough to push them to driving. Once they are sinking money into their car, what is the incentive to use public transport unless the traffic is perticularly poor?

Your logic escapes me. If bike riders are meant to return to the bosom of the motoring community - from whence they came - after the current state of affairs is over, wouldn't transport users also return? And conversely, if those who have abandoned the transport system to try motoring are expected to stick at it because they are enjoying it so much, would the same not also be expected of those who transitioned from motoring to bicycle riding?

The fact of the matter is that many futurologists reckoned that we were at 'peak car' already before the virus struck. The new normal can, as I see it, only accelerate that trend.
I really hope we are past 'peak car' however, I think things will go the other way. The beginning of lockdown was initially positive, but now car users have car more freedoms than those who rely on public transport have, this could be a major issue.
I ventured out on my bike today to pick up a few items in Sainsburys. I've not been far from the house for several days and the first thing I noticed is how much the traffic has picked up. Newport Road was at a standstill. At Sainsburys, the cycle parking area is near the front of the queue to get in. It has become a trolley park for people to collect a trolley on the way in. Fortunately there was one space that wasn't blocked by trolleys.

On the way home I nearly got run over by a lorry. He was slowly approaching a T junction from my left. My sixth sense told me that he wasn't going to stop. I was fooled by the fact that I heard the brakes squeak so I carried on but as I got to the point of no return he stepped on the accelerator. Missed me by centimetres and then stamped on the brakes when it was far too late.

Edit - I've since worked out what happened. I downloaded several still pictures from my camera as the lorry and I both approached the junction. I was trying to see if the driver looked to his right as he approached the junction. I couldn't see his face in any of the pictures because his head was behind the wing mirror. Therefore he couldn't see me!
Oh yeah, better have been wearing a helmet, they could save your life should you be minced under the tyre of a 40 ton truck!
 

Bobdogs

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I ventured out on my bike today to pick up a few items in Sainsburys. I've not been far from the house for several days and the first thing I noticed is how much the traffic has picked up. Newport Road was at a standstill. At Sainsburys, the cycle parking area is near the front of the queue to get in. It has become a trolley park for people to collect a trolley on the way in. Fortunately there was one space that wasn't blocked by trolleys.

On the way home I nearly got run over by a lorry. He was slowly approaching a T junction from my left. My sixth sense told me that he wasn't going to stop. I was fooled by the fact that I heard the brakes squeak so I carried on but as I got to the point of no return he stepped on the accelerator. Missed me by centimetres and then stamped on the brakes when it was far too late.

Edit - I've since worked out what happened. I downloaded several still pictures from my camera as the lorry and I both approached the junction. I was trying to see if the driver looked to his right as he approached the junction. I couldn't see his face in any of the pictures because his head was behind the wing mirror. Therefore he couldn't see me!
Sorry to hear about your experience.
Don't know whether it is down to health and safety, but mirrors on lorries and coaches are huge nowadays. Compare them to those you see on fifties transport videos. I was aware of a huge blind spot to the left when turning right out of a junction, which would even block out cars, let alone cyclists.
I note the mirrors on the local buses are much more compact and obviously function perfectly adequately.
 

45107

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Oh yeah, better have been wearing a helmet, they could save your life should you be minced under the tyre of a 40 ton truck!

I don’t think anyone has claimed that to be the case, but I suspect you are aware of that.
 

Jozhua

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Sorry to hear about your experience.
Don't know whether it is down to health and safety, but mirrors on lorries and coaches are huge nowadays. Compare them to those you see on fifties transport videos. I was aware of a huge blind spot to the left when turning right out of a junction, which would even block out cars, let alone cyclists.
I note the mirrors on the local buses are much more compact and obviously function perfectly adequately.
Yeah, which blind spots and the like are inevitable with a vehicle that size. I actually cannot blame trucks for being on the road as things need to be moved!

However, the idea of one of us meatbags on a small self-balanced contraption sharing busy streets with them kind of shows the issue and why cyclists need dedicated infrastructure.
 

parkender102

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Cycling in London or other large cities is just too dangerous for my liking. Aside from the danger of being squished, there are seriously high levels of pollution and I'm not convinced physical exertion whilst breathing all that rubbish deep into your lungs is all that sensible really.

I've cycled in and around London for the last 10 years and avoid the main roads and so called Cycle Superhighways as they are just too busy with other traffic and other cyclists. I average between 50 and 100 miles a week throughout the year and have had no accidents apart from someone pulling into the road from a parking space without looking - resulting in a minor injury. The key is to use the Thames Path, Canal Paths, Parks and quiet backstreets wherever possible. These are also pollution free routes shared usually with pedestrians, dog walkers, joggers etc and I've never felt the need to use a face mask

It's amazing that especially in the summer I can cycle from work in Woking or Farnborough and be in Fulham, Earls Court or Central London almost without riding on a proper road. The Thames Path really is a marvel especially between Weybridge and Fulham. Depending on the weather or enthusiasm I sometimes break the journey up partly by taking the train along with my bike.
 

jon0844

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It is very easy for vehicle drivers to be stereotyped as the ones automatically in the wrong in the event of collisions or near misses with cyclists (bloody driver nearly knocked me off my bike or similar remark springs to mind), however the quite poor standard of some cycling (especially since lockdown and the increased number of cyclists using the roads) needs to be considered and addressed too.

I've said on many times before that if it wasn't for the actions of a lot of drivers, there may be far more accidents involving bikes because of scenarios like yours.

Sure, I am not going to get into an argument about claiming cyclists are always at fault. Absolutely not, and as said above, when it's bike vs vehicle, the vehicle wins.

However, I've personally prevented many accidents through my own defensive driving and predicting/fearing a cyclist doing something dangerous. Catch a driver that isn't quite as alert and there's an accident right there, potentially fatal.

I am not going to say that cyclists need a licence or anything, but maybe the Government should be offering some sort of free or heavily subsidised cycling proficiency courses to better educate cyclists (particularly the new ones) if only to help reduce the drain on the NHS as and when they have accidents - which I am sure they will given the huge increase in numbers.

Many retailers are struggling, especially with e-bikes, to meet demand - and there is also a growing problem with cycle theft, with people even being robbed of their bike or scooter at knifepoint. This could also 'end in tears' if people aren't careful.

As an aside, I wonder how many new cyclists are going to get very upset when restrictions on trains are enforced again. More and more people are travelling with a bike now (and most aren't folding types) so they can cycle when they get into London and avoid buses/tubes - but sooner or later they're going to be told they can't take them on the train and I expect many people are going to get very angry indeed - especially with a Government telling people to cycle.
 
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The Ham

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Oh yeah, better have been wearing a helmet, they could save your life should you be minced under the tyre of a 40 ton truck!

A car wouldn't save your life is you were to end up being hit hard by a large lorry.

Whilst there are limits to what cycle helmets can do I'd rather take my chances wearing one than not.

For instance whilst the full force of an impact still transfers to the head the point load is spread over a wider area, so less damage is done to any given point. Now this again is only of benefit to a given point there are still benefits. Even if this is only that a conker (can of coke, small branch, other smallish object) falling on your helmet bounces away harmlessly rather than giving you a headache.

However, given the wider benefits of cycling I wouldn't call for the enforced wearing if cycle helmets.

Yet there are many who use the debate to argue that cycle helmets should never be worn, to the extent of being simi-religious in their responses and coming back to points which aren't those being questioned (such as claiming science proves their point and then when asked how science answers an observation made, and taken from engineering experience, doesn't provide an answer and tries to shut down the debate).
 

Bletchleyite

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Yet there are many who use the debate to argue that cycle helmets should never be worn, to the extent of being simi-religious in their responses and coming back to points which aren't those being questioned (such as claiming science proves their point and then when asked how science answers an observation made, and taken from engineering experience, doesn't provide an answer and tries to shut down the debate).

I do find this bizarre. I don't agree with compulsion as I don't support compulsion of anything regarding individuals' own health and safety[1], to me the law's role is solely to protect people from others by regulating those doing the thing that causes the risk to others. However, to argue that they don't provide benefits is bizarre. It's just a choice whether you prefer the (relatively small) risk over the upsides of not wearing one (wind in your hair, not having to faff about carrying one etc).

[1] I was pleased that, in line with this, shielding never became compulsory, only strongly advised. I'd also oppose masks were they for your own protection, but they're not, so I support it.
 

ashkeba

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However, to argue that they don't provide benefits is bizarre. It's just a choice whether you prefer the (relatively small) risk over the upsides of not wearing one (wind in your hair, not having to faff about carrying one etc).
The arguments are usually not that they do not provide benefits but that the benefits are outweighed by the drawbacks, including more risk-taking by not only the rider but more weightily by drivers near the rider who think helmet means skilsful means needs less space which means more collisions if either rider or driver misjudges in overtaking or turning or hits a hole or anything. Hair and faff are nuisance but unlikely to injure you. It is simple to see the reverse effect. Look like a teenage lout who may wheelie and pogo at any moment and drivers give much more room.

The best way is quiet roads and park ways and river and canal banks as mentioned above but more cities need to join them up and allow cycling on some.
 

The Ham

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The arguments are usually not that they do not provide benefits but that the benefits are outweighed by the drawbacks, including more risk-taking by not only the rider but more weightily by drivers near the rider who think helmet means skilsful means needs less space which means more collisions if either rider or driver misjudges in overtaking or turning or hits a hole or anything. Hair and faff are nuisance but unlikely to injure you. It is simple to see the reverse effect. Look like a teenage lout who may wheelie and pogo at any moment and drivers give much more room.

The best way is quiet roads and park ways and river and canal banks as mentioned above but more cities need to join them up and allow cycling on some.

As a cyclist you should enforce your own space by cycling at least 0.5m (with about 1m being better) from the kerb line, if not more. This would generally mean that cars have to move to the next/oncoming lane to get past you.

That should provide you with some space for most things, including the ability to move left if a car passes close to you.

Cycling along the middle of a traffic lane is why I'm willing to cycle on a dual carriageway (70mph limit, although fairly short in length) and around a motorway junction over roundabout (i.e. where the roundabout is over the motorway but not subject to motorway rules), the roundabout involves using the middle lane of 3.

Over the years I've had very few people pass close to me, as they've not got the option to try and squeeze past. Although that could be in part be due to the (empty) child seat on the back for many of the more recent times and when I do it in the dark (about 1/4 of the trips over a year of commuting) I've got decent lights on the unlight road.
 

Jozhua

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A car wouldn't save your life is you were to end up being hit hard by a large lorry.

Whilst there are limits to what cycle helmets can do I'd rather take my chances wearing one than not.

For instance whilst the full force of an impact still transfers to the head the point load is spread over a wider area, so less damage is done to any given point. Now this again is only of benefit to a given point there are still benefits. Even if this is only that a conker (can of coke, small branch, other smallish object) falling on your helmet bounces away harmlessly rather than giving you a headache.

However, given the wider benefits of cycling I wouldn't call for the enforced wearing if cycle helmets.

Yet there are many who use the debate to argue that cycle helmets should never be worn, to the extent of being simi-religious in their responses and coming back to points which aren't those being questioned (such as claiming science proves their point and then when asked how science answers an observation made, and taken from engineering experience, doesn't provide an answer and tries to shut down the debate).
Yeah I agree, I oppose mandatory helmet laws, but think people should wear them given the opportunity.
The arguments are usually not that they do not provide benefits but that the benefits are outweighed by the drawbacks, including more risk-taking by not only the rider but more weightily by drivers near the rider who think helmet means skilsful means needs less space which means more collisions if either rider or driver misjudges in overtaking or turning or hits a hole or anything. Hair and faff are nuisance but unlikely to injure you. It is simple to see the reverse effect. Look like a teenage lout who may wheelie and pogo at any moment and drivers give much more room.

The best way is quiet roads and park ways and river and canal banks as mentioned above but more cities need to join them up and allow cycling on some.
Yeah, maybe I should get a hoodie and weave across the lane lmao...

In terms of roundabouts, I'll just use the pavements to navigate them in the future (dismounting if there are pedestrians on the street as well.) I don't care if it's against the highway code, as following that correctly didn't help much last time I tried to use a roundabout.

Totally agree about linking up existing cycle routes better, especially moving cyclists into parks/green areas completely seperate from traffic. The only issue is that the pathways in these areas are already quite crowded, so dedicated cycle routes through them would be helpful.
 
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